20231214_平安证券_地产行业2024年年度策略报告：新形势盼转机_42页.pdf

2024 2023 12 14*20231122*20231117*20231106 S1060514080002 BQV514 YANGKAN S1060520090003 ZHENGXIWEN S1060522070003 WANGDONGYANG 2023 5,2023 10 7.8%2024 6.9%2024 8.9%10%/2023 2024 1 2 3 4 2023 2024 A 1 2 3 2/42 EPS P/E 2023-12-13 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E A 000002.SZ 10.64 1.90 1.95 1.97 2.05 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2 600048.SH 10.12 1.53 1.63 1.70 1.87 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.4 001979.SZ 9.45 0.55 0.62 0.84 1.17 17.2 15.2 11.3 8.1 601155.SH 11.90 0.62 1.20 1.23 1.27 19.2 9.9 9.7 9.4 002244.SZ 7.58 1.20 1.32 1.43 1.50 6.3 5.7 5.3 5.1 000090.SZ 4.95 1.04 0.89 0.89 0.95 4.8 5.6 5.6 5.2 0688.HK 11.73 2.13 2.15 2.20 2.28 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.1 0123.HK 5.81 1.28 1.10 1.21 1.32 4.5 5.3 4.8 4.4 600325.SH 7.20 1.22 1.28 1.39 1.65 5.9 5.6 5.2 4.4 9979.HK 5.01 0.37 0.46 0.56 0.66 13.5 10.9 8.9 7.6 1908.HK 14.21 2.67 3.02 3.52 4.17 4.7 4.0 4.0 3.4 3900.HK 6.58 1.09 1.66 1.85 2.03 6.0 4.0 3.6 3.2 6049.HK 25.22 2.01 2.42 2.91 3.47 12.5 10.4 8.7 7.3 001914.SZ 12.86 0.56 0.67 0.82 1.02 23.0 19.2 15.7 12.6 1755.HK 2.89 0.49 0.59 0.64 0.69 5.9 4.9 4.5 4.2 6668.HK 1.04 0.15 0.19 0.21 0.23 6.9 5.5 4.9 4.5 wind/0YDWvMmRpMpOqOmPqNtMoP7NcM8OsQnNpNtQlOoPsQeRnMrM7NnNuMvPnRpONZmRyR 3/42.7.7 2.1.7 2.2.9 2.2 2024.12.14 3.1.14 3.2“+”.16 3.3.20 3.4 2024.22.24 4.1.24 4.2.25 4.3+.29.32 5.1.32 5.2.34 5.3+.36 5.4.38.41 6.1.41 6.2.41 4/42 1 2024.7 2 2023 10 2022.8 3.8 4 2023 8.9 5 2023.10 6 2022-2023.10 7.11 8.11 9 2023.11 10&19.11 11 2023.12 12 2023 A.12 13.12 14 SW.12 15 SW.13 16 SW.13 17 2024 3 4.13 18 2023 10.13 19.14 20 2022 39.4%2023 2007.14 21 10 300.14 22 50.15 23.15 24.15 25 2021-2022.15 26.15 27&.16 28 2021-2022.16 29 2021 50 50.16 30.17 31.17 32%.17 33 2022H2.18 5/42 34 12.18 35 70.18 36 2023 17.18 37 2022 5.19 38.19 39 144 90.19 40 2022.20 41 2023.20 42 1960-2004.21 43 60-70.21 44.21 45.22 46.22 47 2019-2023 11 30.23 48 12.23 49“+”.23 50 2024.24 51.24 52.24 53.26 54.26 55 22 2022.26 56 22 2022.27 57 2019-2022.27 58.28 59.28 60.28 61.29 62.29 63.30 64.30 65 2020.31 66.31 67.31 68.31 69 2023.32 6/42 70 2022 20%.32 71 2022.32 72 OPEN HOUSE 2022.33 73 BKG.L.33 74 11.33 75.34 76 Anywhere Real Estate.34 77 80%.35 78 2014.35 79.35 80.35 81.36 82 2023Q3.36 83 2010-2020.36 84 2011-2021.36 85.37 86 2022.37 87.37 88.38 89 14.38 90 2022 11 62%.38 91 2022.39 92.39 93 2019-2022 10 100 200.40 94 14.40 95 14.41 96 2024.41 7/42 2023 2024 11 3 2024 2024 6.9%2024 10%5%1%2024 8.9%2024+1 2024 2.1 7 24 7 27 8/42 8 7 24 10 11 3 16 2 2023 10 2022 3 9/42 4 2023 8 8 29-9 14 9 4 20%30%9 5 20%30%9 7 20%30%9 7 20%30%2022 10 1 2025 12 31 1 5 2 9 11 9 11 120 9 12 20%9 14 9 20 2 2 1 5 2 9 22 4 9 25 2 9 26 5+2 144 2 9 26 5 LPR 10 5 LPR 30 10 16 2 1 10 24 3 1 10 25 25%35%11 22 70%80%40%2.2 2023 2023 4 8.8%5 6 7 19%12 5 10/42 23.5%7 8 9 2 10 11%5 2023 wind 6 2022-2023 wind-10.0%-9.3%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,0002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023M1-10 11/42 7 wind 8 wind 9 2023 10&19 Wind Wind-7.8%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,0002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023M1-10-14.8%-16.4%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2023-02 2023-05 2023-08-5-4-3-2-10122022-01 2022-06 2022-11 2023-04 2023-09%70:70:70:70:12/42 2.2 2024 2022 2023 2023 11 21 13 33 323.18 2023 10 371 393 10 A 2023 2024 3-4,11 2023 12 2023 A Wind Wind 13 14 SW Wind Wind-11.0%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000201820192020202120222023M1-10-4000-3000-2000-100001000200030002020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 13/42 15 SW 16 SW Wind Wind 17 2024 3 4 18 2023 10 Wind Wind 50,00055,00060,00065,00070,00075,00080,000110,000115,000120,000125,000130,000135,000140,000145,000 2020,13,527 2021,11,966 2023,8,905 8,0009,00010,00011,00012,00013,00014,000 420 399 01002003004005006002022/1 2022/7 2023/1 2023/7 2024/1 2024/7“+”3933711502002503003504004505005506006507007508002022-01 2022-06 2022-11 2023-04 2023-09 2022 2023 14/42 19 3.1 4 2023 2023 10 23.2%300 3 10 2023 10 50 17 10 20 2022 39.4%2023 2007 21 10 300 Wind-31.5%-24.0%-30.2%-33.0%-35.1%-27.7%-31.9%-38.3%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%15/42 22 50 23 2023Q1 41%2020 24 2022 2023 2013 6%1%2014-2017 12%3%2018-2021 38%11%2022/25%25 2021-2022 26 2023 2 2022 2022 7 22 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%100%98%97%96%96%93%90%81%0%20%40%60%80%100%2023 10 10 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 2022 16/42 27&28 2021-2022 2021 T op50 27 27 50 29 2021 50 50 3.2+50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 20220%10%20%30%40%50%60%2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2021-2022,51.1%,48.9%17/42 30 Wind 31 32%wind wind 12 2022 41.5%2023 11 49.4%2023 11 37.1%2021 2022 7 2016 2021 9 020406080100120:10121416182022242628:3:18/42 70/2017 2018 3 1-2 2022 33 2022H2 34 12 Wind Wind 12 35 70 36 2023 17 Wind 2016 2022 110.6 122.2 10.5%93.3 96.6 3.5%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%50 20 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,0002022/1 2022/6 2022/11 2023/4 2023/9-5-4-3-2-101234-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.62021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/032023/052023/072023/0970%70%050100150200250 17 19/42 37 2022 5 38 Wind Wind 39 144 90 Wind 0204060801001201402016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0204060801001201402018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2021/2 2021/5 2021/8 2021/11 2022/2 2022/5 2022/8 2022/11 2023/2 2023/5 2023/8-90-144 20/42 40 2022 Wind 3.3 2023 10 2023 30 2016 41 2023 Wind 2022 65.22%2023 10 2019 43%2021 65%2024 18%77%44%63%18%59%12%45%67%17%35%36%63%28%68%50%14%5%21%10%19%12%20%5%0%20%40%60%80%100%90 90-140 140-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2021/2 2021/6 2021/10 2022/2 2022/6 2022/10 2023/2 2023/6 2023/10-90-144 21/42 1960 69.9%2004 90 1982 1977 50%1991 1972 43%1965 67.9%1968 1.01 1970 2020 1973 43%1986 66.7%1998 1990 44%42 1960-2004 Wind 43 60-70 44 Wind Wind 9.2 2023/10*12 2023 9.5 0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0200.0050010001500200025001959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 2019 22/42 45 Wind 46 1 2030 14.1 70%2 2020 35.7 40.8 37.6 2030 2020 37.6 3 2%2030*=14.1*70%*37.6=371.1 2020-2030 2020*=339.3*2%*10=67.9 2024-2030 2030-2020+-2021 2023=371.1-339.3+67.9-35.4=64.3 2024-2030 64.3/7=9.2 Wind 2022 2023 10 3.4 2024 2018-2022 2023 11 2023 11/11*12 12 2023 2023 Q1 2024 2023 9 2024 30 3-4%30 7-8%2024 6.9%0246810121416182000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2030E 2023-2030 23/42 47 2019-2023 11 30 48 12 Wind Wind=+-+*2023 10 23.2%2023 2007 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2022H2 2023 10 19%2024 2024 10%5%1%2024 8.9%49+-7.1%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002019 2021 2023M1-1130 187 213 212 216 171 181 0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 24/42 50 2024 2024 0.0%-5.0%0.0%-6.3%2024-5.0%-10.0%-1.0%-8.9%2024-10.0%-15.0%-3.0%-12.1%Wind 4.1 2021 12 2022 12 2023 10 2024 51 52/2023 2 10 2023 4 28 2023 7 25/42 21 2023 7 24 2023 7 28 2023 8 25 2023 9 4 2023 9 28 20%1%2023 10 12 162 4.2 26/42 53 54 2019-2022 1.4 1.2 1.4 0.7 2022 22 40.4%23%2024 55 22 2022 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000 2022 27/42 56 22 2022 57 2019-2022 2015-2018 PSL 3 4000 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500 2022 140311236713582655902,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0002019 2020 2021 2022 28/42 58 59 60 Wind-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020/4.1%3.4%1.7%1.6%9.3%8.5%8.7%9.5%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%2017 2018 2019 2020 29/42 61 2023 11 22 1 2 3 4 5 2023 12 4 1 2 4.3+1994 62 30/42 63 60 70 90 2023 4 28 7 24 64 2020/2.3%2.6%4.9/1161 1273 2020 2023 9 12 508 5200 1500 2021-2025 900 2025 4000 2024 31/42 65 2020 66 67 68 Wind/2.3%12.2%20.9%6.8%4.0%/2.6%46.0%1.0%4.1%90093.624020401002003004005006007008009001,000 2021-2025 2021 2022 2023 60 60404763683601020304050607080 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 32/42 69 2023/27660 415 296 6328 30482 1968 744 21430 55200 380 338 10896 46200 161 38 11668 23270 744 248 5544 979 29700 128 96 5355 31700 65 18 3654 5.1 90%OPEN HOUSE 20%70 2022 20%71 2022 28%28%24%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%28%29%98.1%94.9%89.2%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%33/42 72 OPEN HOUSE 2022 73 BKG.L 11 A+A+A+A A A B B B C C C D D D 74 11 31255767237050100150200250300 97.9%98.2%97.80%97.85%97.90%97.95%98.00%98.05%98.10%98.15%98.20%98.25%2021 2022 34/42 75 5.2 WIND 2022 86%2014 2022 63%ZILLOW Anywhere Real Estate Anywhere Real Estate 2022 481 2022 8%76 Anywhere Real Estate Wind 1.1%13.7%8.8%-0.9%4.4%-6.4%3.9%25.4%-5.5%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01002003004005006002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 亿元 35/42 77 80%78 2014 wind wind 2023 7650 15590 13%28%79 80 01002003004005006007008001999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 010000200003000040000500006000070000800001992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 套-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%2021/32021/52021/72021/92021/112022/12022/32022/52022/72022/92022/112023/12023/32023/52023/72023/9-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0100200300400500600700800900 36/42 81 82 2023Q3 5.3+2010-2020 24%2025 316.7 2019-2025 23.2%2022 22.7%83 2010-2020 84 2011-2021 051015202530%现有房屋交易服务新房交易服务家居装修及布置服务新兴服务和其他服务46 41 42 621171371772152793474159.18.3 8.41221262939.954.568.680.60102030405060708090050100150200250300350400450-20%0%20%40%60%80%37/42 85 86 2022 2024 2021H2 2021Q3 2022 40 650 2023 22,87 52.3%27.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)(%)租赁,45.3%销售,23.6%建筑,22.7%经纪,8.0%其它,0.4%38/42 88 5.4 2021 2022 14 24%54%2022 11 62%89 14 90 2022 11 62%Wind 5.67.99.86.72740.87.261038.630.225.501020304050607080901002020 2021 2022-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 38%62%39/42 91 2022 2022 289 2030 369 2022-2030 3.1%92-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1741851952112392592762893690501001502002503003504002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2030E 40/42 93 2019-2022 10 100 200 2023 12 12 2024 WIND 9.8 9.3 14.6 2023-2025 20%Wind 94 14 Wind 12.80%13.02%14.25%14.91%38.39%41.92%45.37%46.13%42.89%46.38%49.88%50.24%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019 2020 2021 2022 10 100 2000.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8024681012142018 2019 2020 2021 2022 41/42 95 14 96 2024 Wind Wind 6.1 2023 2024 A 6.2 1 2 3 37.4%28.8%25.8%30.3%34.9%36.4%37.8%57.8%55.3%16.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 14.69.89.312.617.3024681012141618202024 PE:6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2023 4008866338 5023 B 25 1333 26 4 1 B 25