20231213_德邦证券_计算机行业2024年投资策略报告_30页.pdf

0 2024 S0120523090002 2023 12 13|1 CONTENTS01020304 AI 0YFUzQsPpMrQoQmPsPtMpO9P9R8OpNnNmOtQfQpOoMfQnMqMaQpPwPuOqQoPxNnPnN2 SEPARATOR PAGE013 2024 IT CentOS OpenEuler OpenEuler AI+AI AI+SOA SEV AI M365 30/11 4 IT IT IT IT CAD/CAM/CAE EDA AI IT AI+IT 5 SEPARATOR PAGE026 IT 2020 2022 2023 7 IT 2023 11 62.7%1 2 2021-2023 10 8 IT IT IT OA 3 30.43%IT IT 2023 6 9(2023-2025)2023-2025 10%7%2023E yoy 2023E yoy 2024E yoy 2024E yoy 52 21.36%3.83 51.35%63.33 21.78%5.3 37.84%74.58 11.24%8.29 29.96%84.39 13.15%10.58 27.45%11%76.92 18.3%18 65%90.86 18.11%22.21 23.39%O45 UF3.0 IT Wind 9第9 页请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2023 8 65 6 OS 6 OS 10第10页请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2019 OpenEuler 2021 CentOS OpenEuler OpenEuler OS OpenEuler 15 OpenEuler CentOS OpenEuler OpenEuler 2022 OpenEuler 25%OpenEuler OpenEuler OpenEuler PR 11 2022 CAD 48.6 15.4%3D CAD 30.9 73.4%21.5%23.5%15.3%12.5%CAD 9.6%2.7%CAE 37.6 17.1%Ansys 16.8%14.7%7.9%EDA EDA 2022 EDA 115.6 11.8%2023 130.5 13%EDA 7%EDA 2022 CAD 2022 CAE 2022 EDA IDC PTC Ansys Cadence Synopsys Siemens EDA Ansys Keysight 12:Q3 Q4 EDA EDA 2020 EDA EDA CAD/CAM/CAE/2D CAD 3D CAD/CAE/2024 EDA EDA CAD 3D CAD 3D CAD CAE 13Q3 Yoy Q3 yoy 23E 23E 24E 24E 6.4 32.5%1.7 51.9%11.1 2.5 15 3.4 2.2 30%-0.3-193.9%3.8 0.06 5.2 0.3 2.6 45.2%0.5 50.6%5.8 1.7 11 3 4.7 33.1%0.04 121.8%8.2 0.8 10.8 1.6 0.5 36.5%-0.37 23%3.6 0.7 4.9 0.9 1.9 15.5%0.4 3%/Wind Wind 14 SEPARATOR PAGE03AI15 2023 WAIC AI 23 AI AI AI 30 1200 ISV 2500 AI AI 23 AI APN AI AI 2023 WAIC 16 TechWeb NLP/Al AI AI AI AI Al-AI Hilense Agent ModelArts AI OCR NLP RPA AI Al GLM AI x AI,GLM,GLM,GLM,AI 310 AI text-to-SQL 17 PC 2022 PC 3735.9 2025 5881.9 PC PC PC 2017-2020 2000 2022 115 2023 5 9 23948 2021-2025 PC 0%5%10%15%20%25%02,0004,0006,0008,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 05001,0001,5002,0002,5002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2017-2023 2023 5 9 18第18页请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 AI 2024 AI AI 19 2022 Top10 2018 6.4 2025 1220.3 20+SOA E/E 2022 E/E SoC+MCU SoC SOA SOA SOA 21 SEV SOA 3 5 800016000 2030 1600032000 49%2030 812%OS Tier1 OEM+OEM 2022-2030E OEM OEM Tier1 OEM Tier1 OEM Tier1 Tier1 OEM OEM Tier1 OEM 22AI+AI Microsoft365 30/11 AI+AI Microsoft 365 Copilot 1 Word copilot/2 Excel/3 PowerPoint/PPT,copilot PPT 100%AI AI AI AI PC PPT iOS MAC H1 5.9 3324 WPS AI ARPU 285633242600270028002900300031003200330034006 月30 日22 年 6 月30日23 年yoy:16%23AI+OA ToB/G Foxit PDF Editor Cloud ChatGPT PDF AIGC 0%5%10%15%20%25%01002003004005002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E中国协同 办公市 场 规模及预 测市场规模（亿元）增长率%24 AI+AI AI+2023E yoy 2023E yoy 2024E yoy 2024E yoy 48 22%14 23%63 32%18 34%26 10%1.5-33%32 26%2.7 82%12 17%1 10%15 26%1.7 70%6 4%-0.4-2258%7 14.5%-1 70%Wind,25 SEPARATOR PAGE0426 AI+IT 27 AI 1.6 6 20%5%20%-5%+5%5%2.A 500 10%-10%10%10%28 29 600 N1 9+86 21 68761616+86 21 68767880400-8888-128