20231213_华创证券_食品饮料行业2024年度投资策略：短期修复与长期重构_33页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 12 13 2024 3-4 2-3 1 24 PE 25 2 S0360520070001 S0360521050001 S0360520090001 S0360521080003 S0360522090005 021-20572598 S0360518040001%()127 0.02()53,537.53 6.16()51,341.30 7.63%1M 6M 12M-6.3%-4.6%-10.1%-0.5%6.4%4.0%2023-12-03-14%-6%2%10%22/12 23/02 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/122022-12-122023-12-12 300 2024 2009 1210 1 12 8 23 13.6%24 PE 4.5%2 3 2-3 1 24 PE 25 2 ZXBYzQtOsRmNrPpMtOrOpO9P9R8OtRmMmOmPfQpOsQeRoPpM6MmNtQvPqNsNMYnRrO 2024 2009 1210 3 2024.6.7&.7.11 1.11 2.13 3.14.15.15.15.17 1.17 2&.18 3.19 4.20 5.23 6.24 7.26 8.27 9.29.30.30 2024 2009 1210 4 1 23Q2.6 2 23Q2.6 3 PE FY2 5.6 4.7 5 PMI.7 6 2023.7 7.8 8 PE 24.8 9.8 10 23 24.9 11.10 12.10 13.10 14.11 15.12 16.12 17.12 18%.13 19%.13 20.14 21.14 22.15 23.16 24 23Q3.16 25 23 1-10 3.6%.17 26.17 27 23Q1-3.17 28 PET.17 29.18 30.18 31.19 32.19 33.19 2024 2009 1210 5 34 23.20 35.20 36.20 37 2024.20 38 2023.21 39.21 40 23Q1-Q3.21 41.22 42.22 43 20X.22 44 23 B B C.23 45 24.23 46 22 2%23 3.7%.24 47 2023.24 48 2023.24 49 2020.24 50 22.25 51 HH%.25 52.25 53.26 54 H2.26 55 23E.27 56 30%+.27 57.28 58.28 59.28 60.28 61&.28 62.29 63 20-22 16%18%.29 64.29 65.29 2024 2009 1210 6 2024 2023 23Q1 Q2-Q3 12 8 23 13.6%24 PE 4.5%1 23Q2 2 23Q2 wind wind 3 PE FY2 5 wind PE FY2 24 PE 5 PE FY2 12 8 2024 2009 1210 7 4 5 PMI wind wind&Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 10 6 2023 wind PE“PE”2-3 808590951001051101151201251302019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-1049.4354045505560-100-500501001502002019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10:PMI 2024 2009 1210 8 7 8 PE 24 wind 23/24 PE 23/24 PE wind 9 2023/8/15 MLF 15 10 2023/9/1 2 2023/9/14 0.25 2023/10/24 2023 10000，2023/7/12 13 2023/7/20 2023/7/21 13 2023/7/31 2023/9/29 2023/8/18 2023/8/27 2023/8/31 2023/9/28 2023/11/10 2023/9/15 2023/11/8 0510152025303522 10 PE PE-2023EPE-2024E 20 2024 2009 1210 9 2023/11/27 25 2023/8/13 2023/8/27 2023/10/11 2023/10/21 2023/12/1 ETF 23 24 15%+10%-15%20%+10 23 24 iFeng C C/2024 2009 1210 10 11 1935 i 1618 KA-15 20 30 16 5+-1499 12 13 XN Q1 2024 2009 1210 11 24/Q2 H2 Q2 14 25%2023 11 29 45%10 11 35-40%11 1573 2024 40-45%30%11 3 12 1 30%30%30%7 2024 BC i XN 1&240 23 2.8%2024 2009 1210 12 15 16 wind 1935 1618 12 18 930/980 17 VS 20%+1 930 2 880 630.1 2.8%0%1%2%3%4%01002003004005006007002001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023()(%)1000 975 930 870 940 915 885 850900950100010502021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7 2023/1 2023/7 2024 2009 1210 13 2/20%+18%19%wind wind 23 GDP C 6/9 16/20 16%13%24%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42021 2022 20237%17%15%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42021 2022 2023 23 2024 2009 1210 14 20 21 21 wind wind 3 2 7+/2.5/4 750 800 02004006008001,0001,20030,00032,00034,00036,00038,00040,00042,00044,0002020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10 2024 2009 1210 15 22/M2/CPI 3-4 23 23Q3 2024 2009 1210 16 23 wind 24 23Q3 wind 2-3-20%0%20%40%60%80%20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3 2024 2009 1210 17 1 23 23 1-10 3.6%Q2 PET 23 24 PET 9 USDA 4 25 23 1-10 3.6%26 wind 1 9M23 27 23Q1-3 28 PET 23H1 wind pct pcts pcts pct 30.1%55.4%42%0.8 0.1(0.1)1.6 29.3%0.3%5.7 3.4(2.8)5.1 23.1%37.3%25%0.9 1.2(0.6)0.5 22.9%33.4%49%4.4 0.3 0.3 2.4 9.6%-8.5%28%0.0(3.6)(0.6)4.0 3.3%9.8%5%(0.7)(1.0)0.1 0.5 0.7%1.3%22%4.9(2.0)0.8 3.1 2024 2009 1210 18 alpha alpha 2-3 PET 21H2 23 仌、NFC 29 30 2&2021 0.5%3.5%17-21 CAGR 13%1/3 24 3 2024 2009 1210 19 31 32/2021 3 24 23 23 1 24 33 20 21 22 23 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1&miss miss 1 2024 2009 1210 20 34 23 35 wind wind 23 B B 36 37 2024 2024 B B C B,wind 4 23 23 1-10 2.2%3180 U8-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3社零餐饮收入（YOY）海天营业收入（YOY）-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002013-122014-062014-122015-062015-122016-062016-122017-062017-122018-062018-122019-062019-122020-062020-122021-062021-122022-062022-122023-06市场价:大豆:黄豆:全国 同比-25%-15%-5%5%15%25%35%45%55%65%75%2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3海天味业 中炬高新 千禾味业 恒顺醋业 天味食品 宝立食品 2024 2009 1210 21 38 2023 39 wind 1 10M23 9M23 2 3 40 23Q1-Q3 1 2“”“EBITDA”23E 10 720 100 20%22 35%17 3-4 6 8-10 10 2024 2009 1210 22 41 2022 2024 24 40%15%10%0.9pcts 24-23H2 24H1 24-24E 20 16-17 PEG 1 PE FY1 20X 42 43 20X Bloomberg BEst PE PE FY1 CAGR 13-16 CAGR-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%35%+0.49pct+0.98pct+1.46pct+1.95pct+2.44pct38%+0.47pct+0.94pct+1.41pct+1.88pct+2.34pct40%+0.45pct+0.90pct+1.35pct+1.80pct+2.25pct43%+0.43pct+0.86pct+1.29pct+1.73pct+2.16pct45%+0.41pct+0.83pct+1.24pct+1.65pct+2.06pct 15%2024 2009 1210 23 5 24 24 B C 23 B B C C B C B 44 23 B B C B B C Q3 15 Q3 B 35%-40%50+%B 15%30%20%60+24 B B B&45 24 2024&B&B B 2024 2009 1210 24 6 23 23+-10%23Q2 46 22 2%23 3.7%47 2023 wind wind 48 2023 49 2020 wind 2021 21 22.1%0.1%+Q4 24H1 1-2 24 24Q3-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08中国:产量:乳制 品:累计同 比中国:产量:乳制 品:当月同 比-10%0%10%20%1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52020 2021 2022 2023中国生鲜 乳同比：右轴 中 国 生鲜 乳 价格：元/kg15%17%19%21%23%25%27%29%伊利 蒙牛 2024 2009 1210 25 50 22&23 23Q2-Q3 Q4 6 51 HH%52 23 PE 16 4%/DTC 20%+2024 2009 1210 26 7 23/YTD 11.8%/7.8%/2.6%231201/24 3 300+sku 22%53 54 H2 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,50020-0720-1021-0121-0421-0721-1022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-0423-07门店数 YoY 2024 2009 1210 27 55 23E 56 30%+USDA Q3 10%24/8+24-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%分 渠 道 增速68.588899087.590.5 91 91.5 9296.597.590930204060801001202010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2009 1210 28 57 58 19 20+Q2 5%7-8 9 10 21 10%Q1 Q2 Q3 10 23Q4 59 60 wind 61&24 23 4 23 200 24H1 1000 2000-100%0%100%200%300%400%01020304050601 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q4-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0510152025202201052022020520220305202204052022050520220605202207052022080520220905202210052022110520221205202301052023021520230401202305152023070120230725202308252023092620231025 yoy 2024 2009 1210 29 9 23 1400/1300/24 5-10%62 63 20-22 16%18%/64 65 wind wind 5,2005,3005,4005,5005,6005,7005,8005,90020-0220-0420-0620-0820-1020-1221-0221-0421-0621-0821-1021-1222-0222-0422-0622-0822-1022-1223-0223-0423-0623-0823-10面 粉（元/吨）02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000棕榈油（元/吨）2024 2009 1210 30 24 PE 25 2024 2009 1210 31 7 2020 2021-2023 5 2019 2020 2021 5 2020 2020 2022 2022 4 2020 2023 15 2013 2023 2024 2009 1210 32 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2024 2009 1210 33 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%600519 3.97%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522