20231212_海通证券_批零社服行业2024年投资策略：性价比消费与出海品牌和服务新机遇_35页.pdf

SAC S0850517040002 2023 12 12 2 1-10M23/10M23 6.9%/7.6%2-year CAGR 3.7%/3.5%2010 品牌折 扣店&临期折扣店&零食折 扣店等 业态崛 起代表 消费 者&B2B B2C 23 AI 1 2 3-S XVDWxOnQsRqRqOtQtOsNoPaQdN7NnPrRsQpMjMrQsQeRnMnObRqRpMxNqNzRvPrQzR 1.2.3.4.5.3 4 1-10M23/10M23 6.9%/7.6%2-year CAGR 3.7%/3.5%2010 品 牌折扣店、临期 折 扣店、零 食折扣 店 等 新 零售 业态崛 起 代表消费 者&5 Wind&1H23&1.6 Euromonitor&49%39%34%27%24%16%18%17%15%14%6%7%6%4%4%28%33%32%26%25%2%11%27%31%1%1%1%1%1%0%20%40%60%80%100%2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022&2003-2010 1 2014+1.1 7 10M21-10M23 2-year CAGR 10M23 2018 80%2018 70%1.1 Wind 2019 2-year CAGR Euromonitor VS CR3 CR3 30%CR3 15%TOP1 5%CR3 10%VS CR3%2013-2022 3 Top10%RSP No.1 No.2 No.3 No.4 No.5 No.6 No.7 No.8 No.9 No.10 CR10 2020 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 16.1 2021 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 16.5 2022 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 16.8 2020 21.3 20.4 19.6 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.2 4.1 2.6 2.1 88.6 2021 20.0 19.7 17.9 6.0 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.8 2.3 2.0 84.3 2022 19.8 17.9 17.1 8.6 4.5 3.6 3.4 3.4 2.0 2.0 82.3 010203040506070802013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1.1 8 100/300 1.5pct 100-300 78%+3pct 3.6%Euromonitor 2013 17%2022 26%79%68%49%K TOP10 50%57%217%/94%11 VC&11 2023&051015202530 OLAY SK-II YSL 23 22&TOP Euromonitor 9 1.2%17%21%24%26%28%29%29%28%27%26%0%20%40%60%80%100%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10 Wind%1.3&2023&1-10M23 12%VS 5.2%&1-3Q 835 7.3%57 5.7%30 3D 5G&1-3Q23/“CHJ/215/203/224/448 171 164 153 92 116 135 148 169 179 181 182 169 152 201 132 190 179 184-10103050700501001502002502Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23 YOY%-500501001502018/22018/62018/102019/22019/62019/102020/22020/62020/102021/22021/62021/102022/22022/62022/102023/22023/62023/10%111 1H23 1H23 2018 1H23 2015-1H23 81 112 151 175 195 198 257 257 173 0501001502002503002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H231Q23 2.8%2Q23 3Q23 1.6%0.8%0.5%3.1%2.7%3.4%1.8%2.0%46%38%20%42%20%23%45%20%23%1H22 1H23 58.0 59.0 1 1.7%25.8 25.5-0.3-1.2%105.0 102.9-2.1-2.0%147.1 142.2-4.9-3.3%78.0 75.0-3-3.8%130.0 121.0-9-6.9%63.1 58.4-4.7-7.4%36.7 32.4-4.3-11.7%84.0 68.0-16-19.0%80.9 76.0-4.8-6.0%1H23 1.4 91 25 75 12 13&Euromonitor 2022-27 7.5%5.5%5.9%2014-2019/5 CAGR 10.3%/20.4%2022 54.17%&2.14 1 1 12 2022 1100 2 2022 SKU 8800 3325 SKU 3000+3 2-3 30 4 2003 10/MAC 2.1 15 Q3FY23 Q3FY23 1 2 3 1 Q3FY23 2131/45%/22%/10%/6%/7%/9%2 GMV Q3FY23 GMV 21.4/26%/40%/8%/11%/9%/7%GMV Q3FY23 2.1 16 36 eMarketer 199it eMarketer CM 2021 199IT eMarketer 2022 5 20.3%2025 23.6%2021 27%21%20%2022 7875 1863 1572 1459 1228 806 782 613 509 21%27%41%13%16%20%12%15%6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0100020003000400050006000700080009000%4.2 4.9 5.5 6.2 6.8 7.4 5%10%15%20%25%30%3.04.05.06.07.08.02020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E全球电商销售额（万亿美元，左轴）全 球 电 商渗透率（%，右轴）2020-2025E 2.2 36.0%34.0%25.9%25.5%25.3%20.0%18.3%18.0%18.0%17.2%9.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%17 WIND Trading Economics 15 5 41 207 666 2010 13 2022 30%2022 9.75/2022 10%15%20%25%30%35%0246810122008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022%2.2 10.22 12.96 13.53 51.35 70.68 020406080010203040/18 19-22 chinagoods-Chinagoods 2 2 2.2 B2B 19 Multiorders 2%-7%0.2%-3%SKU SKU 30%-100%10%-50%2%-7%0.2%-3%2.2 B2C 84 63 128 123 124 137 2 14 24(25)103(4)1 10(99)600 71(200)0200400600800040801201602014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022,YoY%20 2014-2023Q3 Wind 2014-19/5 CAGR 10.3%/20.4%2019 137 68 0.5 2022 54.2%2022 19 4700+27 32 78 84 66 68 2 2 21 20 142 7(21)3(98)43 771(200)020040060080010000204060801002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY%1 2023()3.16-3.18 20000 2 2023()4.11-4.13 6000 3 2023()5.24-5.26 20000 4 2023()5.31-6.2 10000 550 5 2023()6.5-6.7 8000 6 2023()6.13-6.15 20000 7()6.15-6.17 8000 8 2023()6.19-6.21 10000 9 2023()6.27-6.29 10000 10 2023 9.7-9.9 11 2023 38 9.20-9.22 955 12 2023 9.20-9.22 15000 535 13 2023 AFF()10.24-10.26 241 2023.1-2023.10 2.3 Euromonitor 2022-27 7.5%5.5%5.9%CAGR 7.9%/9.2%GDP GDP OEM/ODM&BHG Escentials Lazada Qoo10 Shopee Zalora Facebook Instagram.Tiktok Grab,Krisshop,Strawberrynet.etc.SOGO Escentials KENS Apothecary Hermo,Lazada,Qoo10,Shopee,Zalora Facebook Instagram,Tiktok“R”sites AB Escentials HaSaki Sociolla Lazada,SendoShappe,thegioididong,Tiki Influancers sollingon FB.Instagram,Tiktok,Zalo“R”sites”the Mall Group Beautrium,Bootsescentials Eve&Bay KIS Tsuruha Lazada Shopee Facebook.Instagram,LINE“R”sites”C&F Perfumery Sociolla,B Bukalapak Saciolla,Tokopedia,BeautyMNL,etc.Facebook,InstagramNiche players:Raond(Beauty)Tiktok Gojek“R”sites”SM The look BeautyMNL Lazada Shopee Zalora Facebook Instagram Tiktok“R”sites”Euromonitor Pro 21 2.4-15-10-5051015200200400600800100012002017 2019 2021 2023E 2025E 2027E yoy%yoy%yoy%22 2022 2023 2018 1H23 115 70 17 18 10 TV 4000 70 3Q23 18 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H23 6 8 13 24 38 74 94 111 115 yoy%33.3 62.5 84.6 58.3 94.7 27.0 18.1 11.7 3 4 6 10 20 39 55 68 70 yoy%33.3 50.0 66.7 100.0 95.0 41.0 23.6 14.8 2 3 5 10 10 17 17 17 17 yoy%50.0 66.7 100.0 0.0 70.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1 2 4 6 13 16 18 18 yoy%0.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 116.7 23.1 12.5 5.9-2 5 6 8 10 yoy%150.0 20.0 33.3 25.0 2015-1H23 2.5 23 24&2023 AI&2024&-S 3.AI AI 25 2024 2024 3.96+6.74%5 303.3+16.76%2021-2024/CAGR15.5%/23.0%1.73%2020 1.31%2024 1.1 2021 4 AI AI MathGPT AI 2023 2023 AI 170%+42 AI AI 3.1 AI 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.9 1.5 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.96 25.0-2.7 5.4-49.1 66.0 6.6 21.4 18.8 6.7-60.0-40.0-20.00.020.040.060.080.00.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YoY%140.9 139.5 148.6 166.0 137.9 139.6 157.6 212.3 259.8 303.30-1.0 6.6 11.7-16.9 1.2 12.9 34.7 22.4 16.8-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.00.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 YoY%26 Wind 3Q23 1-3Q23 349.4 28.6%4150 6.7%525 56.3%1-3Q23 6654.3 17.8%40.3%9.2pct 14.3%3.6pct 10.5%1.5pct 3Q23 19.8%/3Q21 8.6pct 7 8 9 17.8%18.9%23.4%LV DIOR 4Q23 10 19 53%1 2024 2019-2023(%)52 69 26 11 22 32 40 10 11 23 28 27 64 59 45 39 32 23 26 33 27 29-100-50050100150200250300010203040506070801M222M223M224M225M226M227M228M229M2210M2211M2212M221M232M233M234M235M236M237M238M239M233Q23 YOY%0510152025303540Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2019 2020 2021 2022 20233.2 27 STR Wind RevPAR 2019 2023.3-2023.10 86%75%86%101%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01020304050602020/01 2020/03 2020/05 2020/07 2020/09 2020/11 2021/01 2021/03 2021/05 2021/07 2021/09 2021/11 2022/01 2022/03 2022/05 2022/07 2022/09 2022/11 2023/01 2023/03 2023/05 2023/07 2023/09 2019 60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12&60%80%100%120%140%3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12&OCC 2019 2023.3-2023.10 50%100%150%200%3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12&ADR 2019 2023.3-2023.10 3.3 OCC 2024 OCC 2023/9/1 54.70 2019 101%2023 19pct STR 3 RevPAR 120%110%9 2024 OCC 2023-30 16.1%CAGR 2030 65.1%2018-22 2023&Euromonitor 28 3.4 7.9 22.1 19.9 17.6 16.0 14.1 13.3 12.7 12.6 12.3 12.1 0510152025020004000600080002020 2021 2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E yoy%-10-505101520020004000600080002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E yoy%82.4 47.9 42.8 26.4 20.8 050100 2020 333 248 238 226 56 0200400 CAGR 16.1%2023-27 CAGR:5.9%29 Datayes Wind 2023 19 Datayes 5-6 7 8-9 10 11 2023 3 0246810121W4W7W10W13W16W19W22W25W28W31W34W37W40W43W46W49W52W2019 202305101520253035401W4W7W10W13W16W19W22W25W28W31W34W37W40W43W46W49W52W2019 2023 67 161 297 424 552 678 806 924 1022-10.7-1.2 4.2 4.4 4.3 3.7 2.9 2.9 2.1-12-10-8-6-4-202460200400600800100012002023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09%3.5 30 Wind 2024 9 19 3Q23 19 19 11.20%2764 572 19 110.9%86.2%119.5%2013/1/1-2023/11/23 6298 2019 82.1%3Q23 110.9%86.2%119.5%114.2%58.2%78.3%73.3%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0100200300400500600700 3Q23 3Q19%3.6 31 32-S 33 SAC S0850517040002 021-23154125 Email 34 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%35