20240125_广发证券_非银金融行业：2023Q4公募基金持仓分析非银持仓环比下降保险降幅明显_21页.pdf

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/21 T ab l e _ P ag e 深度分析|非银金融 证券研究报告 T ab l e _ T i t l e 20 2 3Q 4 T ab l e _ S u m mar y 2023 17%53%2023Q4 358 2022Q4 368 2023Q3 308 3787 2022Q4 3760 2023Q3 2467 53%2023 202 3Q 4 1.6%1.1%w i n d 202 3Q 3 0.78%202 3Q 4 0.69%1 43 2 A 0.15%0.15%0.15%23 w i n d 2 023Q 4 0.33%2 023Q 3 0.76%1 23 2 23Q4 A 0.17%0.12%0.26pcts 23Q4 AH H AH AH A/H H A/H A/H A/H A/H H T a bl e _G r a de 2024-01-25 T ab l e _ P i cQ u o t e T ab l e _ A u t h o r SAC S0260517050001 SFC CE No.BOB667 0755-82535901 T ab l e _ D o cRe p o r t:2024-01-21:2024-01-14:2024-01-07 T ab l e _ C o n t ac ts 021-38003811-23%-17%-11%-5%2%8%01/23 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 300713766 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融/E P S()P E(x)P E V/P B(x)R OE 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 601318.SH CNY 39.36 20231027 67.70 5.27 7.32 7.47 5.38 0.46 0.42 10.12%12.50%601336.SH CNY 28.20 20231029 53.79 4.28 5.53 6.59 5.10 0.32 0.29 12.26%15.17%601601.SH CNY 21.79 20231027 40.97 3.38 3.90 6.45 5.59 0.37 0.34 13.95%15.02%601628.SH CNY 25.60 20231026 44.70 1.60 2.12 16.00 12.08 0.52 0.46 9.71%11.48%02318.HK HKD 31.30 20231027 63.80 5.27 7.32 5.45 3.92 0.34 0.31 10.12%12.50%01336.HK HKD 13.16 20231029 43.11 4.28 5.53 2.82 2.18 0.14 0.13 12.26%15.17%02601.HK HKD 13.34 20231027 28.35 3.38 3.90 3.62 3.14 0.21 0.19 13.95%15.02%02628.HK HKD 8.61 20231026 24.00 1.60 2.12 4.93 3.72 0.16 0.14 9.71%11.48%01299.HK HKD 61.25 20231103 83.07 0.61 0.76 12.84 10.30 1.23 1.13 12.94%15.78%02328.HK HKD 9.48 20231030 10.84 1.34 1.86 6.49 4.67 0.86 0.81 13.50%17.60%/E P S()P E(x)P E V/P B(x)R OE 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 600837.SH CNY 8.86 20231031 12.53 0.54 0.70 16.41 12.66 0.71 0.68 4.30%5.40%601688.SH CNY 13.63 20231031 24.23 1.42 1.63 9.60 8.36 0.79 0.73 7.50%8.10%600030.SH CNY 19.78 20231030 29.51 1.62 1.87 12.21 10.58 1.07 1.00 9.10%9.80%600958.SH CNY 8.25 20231031 11.23 0.51 0.57 16.18 14.47 0.88 0.85 5.50%5.90%601211.SH CNY 14.25 20231031 20.94 1.42 1.63 10.04 8.74 0.82 0.75 7.80%8.20%300059.SZ CNY 12.71 20231028 19.91 0.57 0.71 22.30 17.90 2.14 1.76 11.64%12.48%600999.SH CNY 12.83 20231026 17.54 1.15 1.37 11.16 9.36 1.02 0.93 8.00%8.80%601555.SH CNY 6.78 20231030 10.85 0.42 0.49 16.14 13.84 0.81 0.74 5.20%5.60%601108.SH CNY 7.08 20231028 10.97 0.48 0.62 14.75 11.42 0.97 0.93 6.60%8.30%601377.SH CNY 5.40 20231029 8.58 0.4 0.47 13.50 11.49 0.79 0.72 5.30%5.70%06837.HK HKD 3.68 20231031 5.72 0.54 0.70 6.25 4.82 0.27 0.26 4.30%5.40%HTSC 06886.HK HKD 9.35 20231031 15.40 1.42 1.63 6.04 5.26 0.50 0.46 7.50%8.10%06030.HK HKD 15.54 20231030 20.47 1.62 1.87 8.79 7.62 0.77 0.72 9.10%9.80%03958.HK HKD 3.06 20231031 4.62 0.51 0.57 5.50 4.92 0.30 0.29 5.50%5.90%02611.HK HKD 8.72 20231031 12.37 1.42 1.63 5.63 4.90 0.46 0.42 7.80%8.20%03908.HK HKD 9.37 20231031 21.35 2.14 2.56 4.01 3.36 0.41 0.38 9.90%10.80%06099.HK HKD 5.76 20231026 8.06 1.15 1.37 4.59 3.85 0.42 0.38 8.00%8.80%A+H H PE PB H EPS PB PEV Wind 1ZFUzQqNoNoPtNtQmRtMmN6McMbRsQrRnPmQkPqQnMeRsQrPbRpPzQwMrRxOxNmMpM 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融.4 2 02 3Q 4.7.16.18.19 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 wind 2023 2023 17%53.53%2024 1 22 2023Q4 358 2022Q4 368 3%2023Q3 305 17%3787 2022Q4 3760 0.72%2023Q3 2467 53.53%10.62%10.45%8.47%6.22%2023Q1-Q3 62%65%71%82%-0.17 pct-2.25pct 3.53pct 2023 Q4 3.60 2.84 24.76-22.50%-29.59%30.51%-17.52%7.59%18.22%2023 80 1 1 1%Wind-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0100200300400500600%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 2 Wind 3%Wind-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000()%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 4 Wind 2023 27 2023 Q3 0.34 2023Q4 2.57 3.72 9.05 5 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.002019 1 2019 2 2019 3 2019 4 2020 1 2020 2 2020 3 2020 4 2021 1 2021 2 2021 3 2021 4 2022 1 2022 2 2022 3 2022 4 2023 1 2023 2 2023 3 2023 4 0.74(0.16)(0.33)0.68 0.14 1.53 3.86 0.76 2.44 1.43 1.73 5.12 5.56 0.35 0.50 1.66 1.41 0.57(1.00)0.001.002.003.004.005.006.000.05.010.015.020.025.030.0 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 7/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 6 2024 1 22 12 199 2023 Wind 1 2 3 4 2023Q4 2023 2023 A 2023 Q3 1.63%1.10%2023 2023 5.93%6.11%5.01Pcts 0123456789102019 1 2019 2 2019 3 2019 4 2020 1 2020 2 2020 3 2020 4 2021 1 2021 2 2021 3 2021 4 2022 1 2022 2 2022 3 2022 4 2023 1 2023 2 2023 3 2023 4 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 8/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 7 Wind/-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 9/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 8 A Wind 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 9 Wind%2023Q4 2023Q4 2023Q4(%)pct1.641.250.053.860.620.090.510.200.380.350.230.130.410.110.020.130.070.040.240.030.02 2023Q4()0 1-13-13.35%-0.07 0 2-6-19.27%-0.16 5 3-3 56.83%0.02 1 4-14-0.01-2 5 8-53.48%-0.44-2 6-8-49.07%-0.05 0 7-3-16.10%-0.09 2 8-8 17.25%0.02-3 9-2-69.54%-0.60 1 10 2-5.35%-0.02 1 11-4-12.90%0.02 2 12-2 7.51%0.00 0 13 0 0.00%0.03 1 14 2-20.82%-0.01-6 15 0-87.27%-0.12 2 16-2 18.61%0.02-17-1-1 18 1-14.92%0.00-3 19 0-57.58%-0.25-20-4-0 21 0-70.10%-0.04 47 505741.4814 72734.3219 36122.402 31783.099 24716.516 21259.299 19386.833 7622.208 7481.634 4827.883 3210.111 3195.512 3037.013 1593.623 1538.791 1460.591 994.552 841.982 786.49HTSC 1 406.201 174.06 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 2023 2023 0.78%2023 0.69%43 2023 43 774.53-12.5%353.15-18.3%344.25+1.8%341.24-22.0%+1114.09+64.6%16.62-25.2%20 2023Q1-3 66 4 17 6 ROE 6 2023Q3 5 17 3 23 19.15%2022 104 9.4 2022 25 13 20 12 2023 0.33%2023 0.76%2023 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 12/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 2023 202 10 Wind-6.0%-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%2010Q12010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q22014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 13/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 11 Wind 1 A 1 53,317.58 2 39,488.62 3 12,456.96 4 11,232.46 5 9,133.72 6 8,541.60 7 5,187.96 8 4,827.04 9 2,856.04 10 907.84 Wind 2 A 1-505,115.74 2-193,020.50 3-173,800.80 4-88,589.86-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%2010Q12010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q12014Q22014Q32014Q42015Q12015Q22015Q32015Q42016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 14/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 5-84,806.18 6-53,660.59 7-34,640.56 8-26,552.96 9-19,191.05 10-15,651.12 Wind 13%5%5%4,72%4.51%2023Q4 1.42pct 0.99 pct 0.67 pct 0.49 pct 0.45 pct 2023Q4-2.24 pct-1.94 pct-1.83 pct-1.25 pct-1.21 pct 3 2023Q 4()%2023Q 4()13.10 1,078.72 5.12 813.07 4.72 346.25 4.51 485.79 3.87 440.83 3.53 218.48 3.45 236.53 2.91 217.09 2.70 107.57 2.69 114.01 2.45 123.16 2.34 38.01 2.08 43.47 1.93 73.83 1.85 164.68 1.85 160.19 1.82 81.79 1.75 97.13 1.72 72.64 Wind 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 15/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 4 2023Q 4()%pc t 2023Q 3()%2023Q 2()%1 4.7200 1.4200 3.3000 3.6800 2 2.6900 0.9900 1.7000 1.0000 3 2.4500 0.6700 1.7800 2.4200 4 1.0900 0.4900 0.6000 0.2600 5 0.6000 0.4500 0.1500 0.1000 6 0.5300 0.3300 0.2000 0.1200 7 0.9000 0.2900 0.6100 0.2100 8 0.7000 0.2600 0.4400 0.3400 9 1.0700 0.2500 0.8200 0.1100 10 0.7600 0.2200 0.5400 0.5700 11 0.6700 0.1900 0.4800 0.2600 12 1.9300 0.1800 1.7500 1.4200 13 0.9700 0.1600 0.8100 0.3400 14 1.7200 0.1200 1.6000 1.6300 15 2.9100 0.1100 2.8000 2.5000 16 1.6600 0.0900 1.5700 1.2200 17 1.1400 0.0900 1.0500 1.0100 18 A 0.9200 0.0800 0.8400 0.9500 19 2.7000 0.0700 2.6300 1.8300 20 0.2700 0.0400 0.2300 0.1400 Wind 5 2023Q 4()%pc t 2023Q 3()%2023Q 2()%1 13.1000-2.2400 15.3400 15.0600 2 0.9400-1.9400 2.8800 3.0200 3 0.3500-1.8300 2.1800 2.9400 4 0.6900-1.2500 1.9400 0.3100 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 16/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 5 0.4500-1.2100 1.6600 0.5900 6 4.5100-1.2000 5.7100 6.5600 7 1.4200-1.1600 2.5800 2.3500 8 1.4200-1.1300 2.5500 1.6200 9 2.3400-0.9400 3.2800 2.2700 10 1.0900-0.5700 1.6600 1.6400 11 0.9500-0.5400 1.4900 1.0800 12 1.0000-0.5100 1.5100 0.3400 13 1.8500-0.5100 2.3600 1.7500 14 1.0200-0.5000 1.5200 0.8500 15 0.6900-0.4700 1.1600 0.7700 16 3.4500-0.4600 3.9100 4.8500 17 1.4400-0.4600 1.9000 1.1700 18 0.9700-0.4400 1.4100 0.8000 19 1.6000-0.4300 2.0300 1.8800 Wind 2023 Q4 A 0.15%0.15%0.15 A 0.17%0.12%0.26pcts 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 17/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 6 A 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 SW 3.91%2.43%0.17%0.20%0.36%0.24%0.41%0.76%0.33%-0.43%601318.SH 3.06%2.06%0.13%0.12%0.20%0.14%0.24%0.43%0.17%-0.26%601601.SH 0.51%0.29%0.04%0.02%0.06%0.05%0.10%0.22%0.12%-0.10%601336.SH 0.12%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.01%0.02%0.01%601628.SH 0.09%0.00%0.00%0.05%0.09%0.03%0.04%0.06%0.02%-0.04%SW 1.57%0.88%2.03%0.81%0.90%0.61%0.37%0.78%0.69%-0.15%300059.SZ 0.23%0.62%1.37%0.46%0.52%0.35%0.09%0.17%0.15%-0.02%600030.SH 0.59%0.14%0.18%0.12%0.16%0.09%0.09%0.19%0.15%-0.04%601688.SH 0.40%0.04%0.12%0.09%0.09%0.08%0.12%0.24%0.15%-0.09%000776.SZ 0.01%0.01%0.18%0.02%0.04%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.00%600958.SH 0.00%0.01%0.04%0.00%0.03%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.01%0.01%600837.SH 0.18%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.04%0.00%601211.SH 0.06%0.01%0.04%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.05%0.04%-0.01%601377.SH 0.01%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%600999.SH 0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.02%0.01%-0.01%Wind 2023Q4 4.72%0.2pcts 7 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 00388.HK 57.82 110.61 76.02 56.00 58.37 50.57 01299.HK 8.22 6.39 6.48 7.24 9.01 7.27 02318.HK 5.70 11.81 8.24 3.35 2.30 3.61 02328.HK 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.84 2.97 3.18 02628.HK 0.19 0.17 1.30 2.98 5.31 2.47 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 18/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 06030.HK 2.11 3.94 4.18 4.68 4.17 2.13 03908.HK 2.42 0.80 1.43 1.45 2.31 1.94 02601.HK 0.41 0.74 0.68 0.75 0.65 0.76 03877.HK 0.19 2.10 1.47 1.14 2.46 0.75 06881.HK 0.99 0.98 0.89 0.20 0.51 0.48 Wind 2023 A 7 8 2024 ROE,AH H AH AH A/H 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 19/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 PSL 2024 2024 COR H A/H A/H A/H A/H H 1 2 3 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 20/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融 T able_ResearchT eam 2017 2020 2022 2023 T a bl e _R a t i n gI ndus t r y 12 10%12-10%+10%12 10%T a bl e _R a t i n gC o m pa ny 12 15%12 5%-15%12-5%+5%12 5%T able_Address 26 47 6001 31 2 18 429 37 189 29 30 510627 518026 100045 200120-T able_LegalD isclai mer/4 T able_I mportant N o tices 1 2 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 21/21 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 深度分 析|非银 金融/5 T a b l e _I nt e re s t D i s c l os ure(1)12 T able_Copyright