20240110_华创证券_农业深度研究报告：美国养猪业的启示_27页.pdf

2009 1210 2024 01 10+/1 knowhow 2 1980-1998 20 30 3 4 5 6 7 2010 5-7%S0360522060001 S0360523020003%()100 0.01()13,124.54 1.51()9,409.42 1.39%1M 6M 12M-0.9%-2.2%-10.6%0.8%8.0%0.4%11 2023-12-27 20231218-20231224 2023-12-24 20231211-20231217 2023-12-17-20%-12%-3%5%23/01 23/03 23/06 23/08 23/10 24/012023-01-092024-01-09 300 2009 1210/ZXCXvMqNnOmNtNoNrMtMqRaQbPaQoMrRoMrNfQnNqReRmNnM7NqQyQwMqNmRxNqQrR 2009 1210 3.5.6 1.6 2.9 3.9.12.14.14 1.14 2.14.16 1.17 2.18.21.22.24.24 2009 1210 4 1.5 2 2001-2023 IOWA 11.62/.6 3 80%.7 4 2017.7 5.8 6.8 7 1990-2008 303%64%.9 8.10 9 1980-2022.10 10 1980-2022.10 11 1960-2021.11 12 2012.11 13 30.12 14.15 15.16 16 2012 25.16 17 2014.17 18 2007.18 19 2007.18 20 2014%.19 21 2012.19 22 2012.20 23 2007.20 24 2012.21 25.22 26.23 27%.23 28%.23 2009 1210 5+SFD 2021 SFD 100 2100 16%2480 1.1 SFD 2010 5.39 SFD 2013 5 29 SFD 71 SFD 2013 Pipestone 10%PIC Hog slat 1 USDA 01020304050607080901001999 年1 月2000 年1 月2001 年1 月2002 年1 月2003 年1 月2004 年1 月2005 年1 月2006 年1 月2007 年1 月2008 年1 月2009 年1 月2010 年1 月2011 年1 月2012 年1 月2013 年1 月2014 年1 月2015 年1 月2016 年1 月2017 年1 月2018 年1 月2019 年1 月2020 年1 月2021 年1 月2022 年1 月2023 年1 月猪 价（美元/美担）2009 1210 6 2 2001-2023 IOWA 11.62/Iowa knowhow 1 2022 1.33 610 1225 5541 2228 2022 995.7 5743.4 1822.5 2022 287.8 26.31%417.3 38.14%8 70%80%-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.000.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00Jun-01May-02Apr-03Mar-04Feb-05Jan-06Dec-06Nov-07Oct-08Sep-09Aug-10Jul-11Jun-12May-13Apr-14Mar-15Feb-16Jan-17Dec-17Nov-18Oct-19Sep-20Aug-21Jul-22$/头$/头 利润（右轴）生猪收入（左轴）总成本（左轴）粪便收入（右轴）2009 1210 7 3 80%USDA NASS Wendong Zhang Of maize and markets:Chinas new corn policy 20 80 65 7 90%2017 6.64 1-99 5.21 78%0.7%5000 3600(5%)72.8%3600 1.46 4 2017 USDA 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%01234561-99 100-499 500-999 1000-1999 2000-4999 5000+存栏规模万家供给主体数量（万家）养殖量占比 2009 1210 8 80%-90%80%(5-7)40 1 Pic 5000-8000 2000-3000 5000-6000 6000 16-18 4 2000 5000 2 24 2400 4800 250-500 2400 0.5 4800 2400 3-4 250-500 5 6 swineweb 1990-2010 90%0.69 0.69 15 2009 1210 9 7 1990-2008 303%64%USDA 2 5000-10000 2 20%80%7-8 40 70(1)(2)40(3)2003-2012 47.3 15.26 3 1960-2013 1960-1980 37.8%11.9%1980-2013 39.3%10.8%1960-1980 51.6%2013 1.07 10.3%2009 1210 10 8 USDA USDA 1980 2022 1.00 3.83 2.83 0.16 0.50 2.05 0.84 3.33 2.98 16.2%13.6%1998 14%2022 24%9 1980-2022 10 1980-2022 USDA USDA 2007 0.00-0.40 3.2%,15.3%0.41-0.70 5.5%13.9%0.71-1.00 7.3%12.5%1.0 11.9%16.5%0.4 1.0 1 50 1-50 0.4 1960 1970 1980 405468%70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%-0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020万亿美元总资产 总负债 不动产占 比（右 轴）-15-10-50510152025301980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 2009 1210 11/47.2%9472/36.9%18504/25.9%1988 20%2014 4/5 50%11 1960-2021 USDA 1982 1997 200 53%/34.6%56.6%/39.3%2012 47.8%200 12 2012 2012%47.8 60.4-100.0 100.0 90.5 94.7 90.8 53.5 52.2 39.6 100.0-9.5 5.3 9.2 46.5 39.0 68.1 4.8 44.0 65.3 67.2 75.5 73.2 44.4 61.0 31.9 95.2 56.0 34.7 32.8 24.5 26.8 55.6 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000美元平均总收入 农场收入 农场外收入 农场收入占比 2009 1210 12 1-49 8.0 9.5 5.7 10.6 10.0 8.2 6.0 4.9 9.1 50-99 4.4 5.1 3.3 6.7 4.1 3.1 2.0 1.6 4.2 100-199 8.6 6.3 10.7 10.8 6.0 4.6 2.4 2.3 7.0 200 39.9 11.1 75.4 27.9 14.5 16.8 14.1 18.0 35.3 2016 ROE ROA 7-8 10-20 30%70%6000 1500 2500 5 10 10 30 1980-1998 20 1/3 1/3 30/2000 65 2000 5000 77 80 5000 90 1980 1998 20 1/3 22 1/3-8 30 13 30 1/3 1/3 1980 8.56-23.78 32.34 1981 5.74-31.09 36.83 1982 47.39 11.90 35.49 1983 20.45-12.89 33.34 1984 0.28-23.50 23.78 1985 20.3-11.32 31.62 1986 53.2 18.62 34.58 1987 42.41 17.07 25.34 1988 14.62-9.89 24.51 1989 22.26-5.63 27.89 1990 48.77 18.90 29.87 2009 1210 13 1991 23.04-7.49 30.53 1992 20.71-8.56 29.27 1993 23.41-3.93 27.34 1994 0.17-28.66 28.83 1995 22.46-0.80 23.26 1996 28.46 6.32 22.14 1997 25.76-14.98 40.74 1998-12.58-44.59 32.01 21.86-8.12 29.99 1980-1989 23.52-7.05 30.57 1990-1998 20.02-9.31 29.33 Larson A Comparison of Iowa Swine Business Record Farrow-Finish Producers from 1980 to 1998 1980-1998 1/3 1/3 PSY 42 27/18/13 10 30.04/7.42/19.93/2.49/2009 1210 14 1 I 20 19 II 20 III 20 40 IV 20 70 2 I a 100 2009 1210 15 b 200 II 80%2022 62.4 1/3 1/3 1/3 14 III IV 90%2009 1210 16 2012 5 75.4%29.7%3.5%25 11.9%88.2%50.7%15 2016 1982-1997 8.4%117.1%99.1%1997 15 0.7%105.9%104.3%20 90 25 25 16 2012 25%249250 11.9 50.7 1859 88.2 1425497 365017 1257934 59.6 37.9 275 11.5 36671 3650 602119 28.5 11.5 174 0.3 2097-5466 2109303 100 100 434 100 190915 43750 2016 1000 2009 1210 17 1 17 2014 81054 7743 73311 32648 40664 129078-795 129873 100570 29303 74224 958 73265 41311 31995 185163 52569 132593 105177 27416 208543 131597 76946 49669 27227 472033 396668 75366 50540 24825 2224517 2030317 194200 101341 92859 134164 31025 103140 71754 31386 2016 25 2012 186 88.1%1978-1997 1-49 I 10 SA 2012 SA 22.35 10.6%1 SA 4.26 25 4274 100 SA 1296 1 SA 10 SA 2009 1210 18 18 2007 19 2007 2016 2016 II 2011 25.5%56.4%51.1%31.5%26.3%2021 18%47%53%26%III 2011 21.2%1 21 2.1%6.6%2 3 2 I 2014 73.3%60.8%55.8%50.3%51.7%2009 1210 19 20 2014%51.7 25.3 20.4 2.6 50.3 14.2 26.3 9.2 26 33.6 32.3 8.1 22.8 14.1 41.4 21.6 20.6 29.2 47.3 2.9 11.3 25.3 55.8 7.6 9 9.4 60.8 20.7 7.3 13.3 73.3 6.1 21.5 20.5 47.6 10.4 2016 II 25 2012 4.3 7.5 8.3 100 3.8%23.3%65.6%68.3%1000-2499 8.8%1.5%0.1%-1.2%1000 28.5%11.5%0.3%-3.6%21 2012 2016 I:100 II 500000-999999 III 250000-499999 IV 100000-249999 V 50000-99999 VI 25000-49999 VII 10000-24999 VIII 5000-9999 IX 2500-4999 X 1000-2499 XI 1000 2012 100 1241 1000 12 2009 1210 20 22 2012 2016 I:100 II 500000-999999 III 250000-499999 IV 100000-249999 V 50000-99999 VI 25000-49999 VII 10000-24999 VIII 5000-9999 IX 2500-4999 X 1000-2499 XI 1000 2007 3.49%15.05%500 20.36%25.24%10 23 2007 9999 10000-99999 100000-499999 500000-999999 1000000-4999999 500 48 251800 197330 148955 53548 31231 3483 686347%36.7 28.8 21.7 7.8 4.6 0.5 100%0.5 4.5 21.3 19.8 31.5 22.3 100%17.3 14.4 22.5 16.6 18.6 10.6 100%-2.5-2.88 2.06 7.13 10.25 20.36 3.49%-66.01-38.68 10.76 24.11 24.03 25.24 15.05 2016 2009 1210 21 27%21%20 90 2012 210.9 2007 9.5 7.8%12.1%4.3%1%65 1982 18%2012 33.2%1978 1978-1982 8.4%1992-1997 6.4%1 2 USDA 2002 12%2012 5.2%3 24 2012 35 35-54 55-64 65 9.19 62.91 73.42 64.64 210.16%4 30 35 31 100 30 47 58 73 58 296 425 403 337 384%3 33 37 27 100%5 40 35 21 100 10000 48 58 59 61 59 10000-249999 36 27 30 32 30 25 16 14 11 7 11 10.62 12.34 11.58 8.83 10.92%30 20.3 22.3 15.5 20.2 75.27 106.4 145.78 136.85 128.16%65.5 72.2 64.9 65.8 67 2009 1210 22%33 72 89 93 83 67 28 11 7 17 2016 20 1969-1996 1976 1000 2005 41%25 2016 20 90 2000 22%34%1997 4-5pct 69.81111.67.812.128.436.440.434010203040501969 1991 2001 2011 2014%2009 1210 23 1994 62%1997 43%2000 25.7%2007 8.6%65%22.7%2010 5-7%25%70%26 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 44.2%47.2%54.0%44.5%41.4%41.4%39.9%41.8%38.3%3.4%8.5%5.7%11.8%5.7%7.2%10.3%8.8%8.5%14.4%16.9%22.8%8.6%19.2%20.6%15.4%16.6%15.2%2.1%2.2%2.1%2.4%2.6%6.7%16.4%18.1%17.1%21.4%20.0%22.7%35.8%25.7%17.3%16.6%13.4%11.6%10.6%10.2%8.6%Glenn Grimes,Jan.U.S.Hog Marketing Contract Study,1992 3%2004 28%-1992 11%2004 50%73%50 1997 22%/22%19/18pct 2006 41%/40%0.1-5 5-50 2006 6pct/5pct 27%28%USDA USDA 1 2 010203040506070801992 1998 2004 2009所有类型 猪场 专业育肥 场01020304050607080901992 1998 2004 2009所有类型 猪场 专业育肥 场 2009 1210 24 1 2 3 1998 1972 20 ROE 30%350 5-10 ROE 2009 1210 25 2022 2019 2020 2019 2022 2019 2022 2022 2009 1210 26 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 27 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522