20231211_华创证券_新能源车行业2024年度投资策略：周期寻底曙光将现快充引领新技术迎放量_33页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 12 11 2024 2024(1):5-15 2023 24/25 1075/1345+22%/+25%(2):2023 2024 24/25 341/395+15%/+16%(3):IRA 10%2024 24/25 175/210+17%/+20%2023 2024(1)2021-2022 2022(2)2023Q3 10%ROIC 2023 11 60/10/2024 2022Q3(1)01(2)S0360522080001 S0360523010001 S0360523050001%()299 0.04()45,638.32 5.25()37,840.54 5.62%1M 6M 12M-8.4%-17.6%-31.0%-2.6%-6.6%-16.9%20231204-20231210 23 33GW 24 2023-12-10 2024 2023-12-09 2023 11 2023-12-08-30%-17%-5%8%22/12 23/02 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/122022-12-122023-12-08 300 2024 2009 1210.6.6 1 2027.6 2 5-15.6 3 24.7 4 24 20%.7+24.8 1 2023 EV.8 2.9 3.11 24.12 1.12 2.13 3 24-25.14 23 24.15.15 1 2023.15 2 23 24.15.16 1,30%.16 2 2024.16.17 1 2023.17.19.21 0-1.21.27.30 WUDWzQsPmPoPrPmPtOsNpO8OcM7NsQqQmOtQlOnMsQkPpOmObRmMwONZoNzRuOrNvN 2024 2009 1210 3 1.6 2 2017-2023.10.7 3 2017-2023.10.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 7 BEV PHEV.8 8 BEV PHEV.8 9 2023-2024.9 10 2023-2025.10 11.10 12 2025 569.3GWh.10 13 2023Q1-3.11 14 2023Q1-3.11 15.12 16.12 17 BEV PHEV.12 18 BEV PHEV.12 19.12 20 2023-2025.13 21.14 22.14 23.14 24 BEV PHEV.14 25 BEV PHEV.14 26.15 27.15 28 ROIC 2023Q3.15 29 GWh.16 30-.16 31-.16 32-.17 33 6F-.17 2024 2009 1210 4 34-.17 35 2014-2023.18 36 2020-2023.18 37 2020-2023.19 38 2020-2023 6F.19 39 2020-2023.19 40 2018-2023Q3.20 41 7.5 250km.21 42.21 43 2023.21 44 4C.22 45 0.2C-8C.23 46.23 47 2019-2023Q3.23 48.23 49 2021Q1-2023Q3.24 50.24 51 2019-2023Q3.24 52.24 53 LiFePO4.25 54.25 55.25 56.25 57.26 58.26 59.26 60.26 61.27 62 2021Q1-2023Q3.28 63.28 64 2019-2023Q3.28 65.28 66.29 67.29 68 2016-2023Q3.29 2024 2009 1210 5 69 2021-2023.29 70.30 71.30 2024 2009 1210 6 1 2027 2027 2024 2025 3 2026 2027 1.5 EV 10%2024 2025 30 2026 2027 15 EV 1 2014 8 6 2014 9 1-2017 12 31 2017 12 26 2018 1 1-2020 12 31 2020 4 28 2021 1 1-2022 12 31 2022 2022 9 18 2023 1 1-2023 12 31 2023 1 1 2023 12 31 2023 6 19 2024 1 1-2025 12 31 2024 1 1 2025 12 31 3 2026 1 1-2027 12 31 2026 1 1 2027 12 31 1.5 2 5-15 5-10 10-15 2023 10 20-30 53%30-40 49%5-10 40%10-15 36%5-15 2024 2009 1210 7 2 2017-2023.10 3 2017-2023.10 3 24 24 2022 24 10/14.6 14.0/10%0.68/Wh 70kwh 2022 3 4 4 24 20%24 20%2023 1-10 679.1+35.71%36.1%BEV/PHEV 23.94%/12.19%2023 890+36.21%10-20w 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-1040 30-40 20-30 15-20 10-15 5-10 5 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q12023Q22023Q32023.1040 30-40 20-30 15-20 10-15 5-10 5 单位成本（元/wh）单位成本（元/wh）单位成本（元/wh）正极材料（三元6系单晶）吨 1600 万元/吨 34.2 0.55 吨 1600 万元/吨 14.6 0.23 吨 1600 万元/吨 14.0 0.22负极材料（人造中端石墨）吨 900 万元/吨 4.3 0.04 吨 900 万元/吨 3.1 0.03 吨 900 万元/吨 2.7 0.02电解液 吨 900 万元/吨 6.0 0.05 吨 900 万元/吨 1.3 0.01 吨 900 万元/吨 1.2 0.01隔膜（9+3涂 覆）万平米 1500 元/平米 1.9 0.03 万平米 1500 元/平米 2.6 0.04 万平米 1500 元/平米 2.3 0.03铜箔 吨 600 万元/吨 9.1 0.05 吨 600 万元/吨 8.1 0.05 吨 600 万元/吨 7.3 0.04铝箔 吨 400 万元/吨 3.4 0.01 吨 400 万元/吨 3.2 0.01 吨 400 万元/吨 2.8 0.01其他（粘结剂、导电剂等）0.03 0.03 0.02电芯硬件 0.04 0.04 0.04电芯材料 0.80 0.44 0.41BMS 及线 束等 0.05 0.05 0.05设备折旧 0.03 0.03 0.03电费、人工等 0.05 0.05 0.05电池系统成本 0.93 0.57 0.53A品 率 95%95%97%电池系统成本合计 0.98 0.60 0.54电池毛利率 20%20%20%电 池 售 价(元/w h）1.23 0.75 0.687 0 k w h 电 池 包 成 本（万 元）8.58 5.23 4.74三元电芯电池成本-2022年单 位 用 量/G W h 单价假 设 2 4 年，锂 价 回 落，其 他 材 料 降 价 1 0%单 位 用 量/G W h 单价三元电芯电池成本-2023年12月单 位 用 量/G W h 单价 2024 2009 1210 8 24/25 1075/1345+22%/+25%5 6 7 BEV PHEV 8 BEV PHEV+24 1 2023 EV 2023 9 1 EV EV 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01020304050607080901002019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10BEV PHEV()0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09BEV PHEV0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10BEV PHEV 2024 2009 1210 9 9 2023-2024 2023 2024 BEV 4 4500 9.1 3000 4-6.5 6.5 3000 9.1 2024.1.1 PHEV 4 2023 1 1 PHEV 2023.1.1 PHEV 4 BEV 4.7 20g/km 7000 5000 2023 EV PHEV 4.7-6 2023.1.1 4.5 4000 4.5-6 2000 PHEV 1000 5 21-50g/km 1000 BEV PHEV 3.2 2022.6.14 BEV PHEV 3.5 20g/km 3000+2000 3000+2000 4.5 21-60g/km 2000+2000 2000+2000 EV 2023.1.1 2022 11 8 2023 50000 PHEV 60g/km BEV 6.25 4000 BEV 1.2-4.5 2000 2000 2950 2550 BEV 4500-7000 4500-7000 PHEV 2500-5000 2500-5000 BEV 5 2023.1.1 2000-6000 6000-50000 2000-6000 6000-50000 ACEA electrive TopGear 2 2023-2025 2024 2009 1210 10 10 2023-2025 Model2 2024-2025 ID.7 Tourer 2024 i5 Touring 2024 CLA 2024 smart Smart#3 2023 2024 e-C3 2024 Macan SUV 2024 smart Smart#1 2023 3 TopElectricSUV smart E Seal U 2023 9 5 SERES 5 2023 6 11 Seal U 2023 9 DENZA D9 2023 9 MG Cyberster 2024 SERES 5 2023 C10 2023 9 ET5 2023 3 CarNewsC 2025 569.3GWh LG 100 70GWh 12 2025 569.3GWh 2025E 2030E 100 250 Northvolt 48 150 116 200 QuantumScape 1 91 Italvolt 45 75 LG 70 100 SKI 17.3 53.3 Verkor 16 50 2024 2009 1210 11 ACC 16 48 28 44 SDI 30 40 Freyr 16 32 Morrow 8 32 Britishvott 10 30 12 24 Phi4Tech 10 20 26 40 569.3 1279.3 Transport&Environment 3 2023Q1-3 90.0%59.1%25%15%13 2023Q1-3 14 2023Q1-3 marklines marklines 2023 1-9 177+22.64%22.2%BEV 15.2%PHEV 7.0%68.45%2023 297+18.55%24/25 341/395 15%/16%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0000.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,000 2024 2009 1210 12 15 16 marklines marklines 17 BEV PHEV 18 BEV PHEV marklines marklines 24 1 7500 20 3750 20 2018 7 2018 10 2022 7 20 23 24 19 4kwh 2500 3750 23/24/25/26/27 40%/50%/60%/70%/80%4kwh kwh 417 5000 15kwh 3750 23/24 25/26/27/28/29 50%/60%/70%/80%/90%/100%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%0510152025303540452021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09 0.00%50.00%100.00%150.00%200.00%250.00%050100150200250300350400450 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%202201202202202203202204202205202206202207202208202209202210202211202212202301202302202303202304202305202306202307202308202309BEV PHEV 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%202201202202202203202204202205202206202207202208202209202210202211202212202301202302202303202304202305202306202307202308202309BEV PHEV 2024 2009 1210 13 7500/2010 20 50%25%25%20 Congress.gov 2 2024-2025 20 2023-2025 Model 2 2024-2025 CLA Electric 2025 Acura ZDX 2024 Q6 e-tron 2024 Celestiq 2024 Escalade IQ 2024 Honda Prologue 2024 Ioniq 5 N 2024 EV9 2023 12 Eletre 2024 EQG 2025 Polestar 3 2024 Polestar 4 2024 Taycan Facelift 2024 ID.7 2024 Fisker Ocean 2024 EV5 2024 ZDX EV 2024 Prologue 2024 E TopElectricSUV 2025 100 lucid Rivian Fisker 2024 2009 1210 14 21 2023 60 2026 200 2024 40 2025 100 60 70 2030 800 EV HV lucid 3.4 2023 9 Rivian 2023 15 40 Fisker 25 3 24-25 2023 1-9 108.5+54%9.1%BEV 7.36%PHEV 1.77%80.63%2023 150+52.34%24/25 175/210 17%/20%22 23 marklines marklines 24 BEV PHEV 25 BEV PHEV marklines marklines 0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%024681012142021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%050100150200250 0%20%40%60%80%100%EV PHEV0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%BEV PHEV 2024 2009 1210 15 23 24 1 2023 2022 2022 60/10/2023H1 23Q3 23H1 23Q3 26 27 Wind Wind 2 23 24 ROIC 23 15%-20%ROIC Wh 0.05-0.06 0.6-0.8 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.5 0.5-0.6 0.5-0.6 2023 2024 28 ROIC 2023Q3 ROIC/Wh/2023Q3 10%15%20%25%/GWh 3.0 0.0 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.09/4.0 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0-0.1/2.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2/2.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2/3.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5/3.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 2.0 2024 2009 1210 16 1,30%2025 2000GWh 2023 1171GWh 30%172GWh 74%2025 2000GWh 30%29 GWh SNEresearch 2 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 40-60 100-150 100 6F 5-10 50-60 30-31-050010001500200025002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.02021 2022 2023E 2024E()()0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.02021 2022 2023E 2024E()()2024 2009 1210 17 32-33 6F-34-1 2023()()6F()2015-2017 2,2018 2020 4/,2021 4/2022 50/10%2023 16/6 7 30/9()0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.02021 2022 2023E 2024E()0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.02021 2022 2023E 2024E6F 6F()0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.02021 2022 2023E 2024E 2024 2009 1210 18 35 2014-2023 Wind 6F 2023 2023 2023 7 2023 36 2020-2023 Wind 0246810122020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-11NCM523/NCM622/NCM811/LFP/2024 2009 1210 19 37 2020-2023 Wind 38 2020-2023 6F Wind 39 2020-2023 Wind 2022Q4 2022Q4 0.005000.0010000.0015000.0020000.0025000.000100002000030000400005000060000负极价格成本差（元/吨，右轴）价格:负极材料:人造石墨（元/吨）原材料成本（焦类，元/吨）石墨化费用（元/吨）0.001.002.003.004.005.006.000246810122020-01-012020-02-012020-03-012020-04-012020-05-012020-06-012020-07-012020-08-012020-09-012020-10-012020-11-012020-12-012021-01-012021-02-012021-03-012021-04-012021-05-012021-06-012021-07-012021-08-012021-09-012021-10-012021-11-012021-12-012022-01-012022-02-012022-03-012022-04-012022-05-012022-06-012022-07-012022-08-012022-09-012022-10-012022-11-012022-12-012023-01-012023-02-012023-03-012023-04-012023-05-012023-06-012023-07-012023-08-012023-09-012023-10-012023-11-01价格成本差:铁锂电解液（万元/吨）(右轴)价格：磷酸铁锂电解液（万元/吨）铁锂电解液成本（万元/吨）0.00.51.01.52.02020/12020/22020/32020/42020/52020/62020/72020/82020/92 0 2 0/2 0 2 0/2 0 2 0/2021/12021/22021/32021/42021/52021/62021/72021/82021/92 0 2 1/2 0 2 1/2 0 2 1/2022/12022/22022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92 0 2 2/2 0 2 2/2 0 2 2/2023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92 0 2 3/2 0 2 3/隔膜价格成本差（元/m2)隔膜成本（元/m2)价格:基膜:湿法:9 m:国产中 端（元/m2）2024 2009 1210 20/2022Q3 81%2022Q4 65%2022Q3 85%2022Q4 71%2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3/46%2022Q4 60/2023 11 14/2023Q2-2023Q3 2024Q1 84%40 2018-2023Q3 Wind 2024 2009 1210 21 0-1 2023 10 3 600KW 600A 99%driveone 7.5 250km 41 7.5 250km 42 2024 2023 S7 800V 5 200km G9 800V 315KW 5 200km 2024 43 2023 S7 2023 11 800V 800V 5 200+km 15min 400+km MEGA 2023 12 Whale Shark 800V 522kw 12 500 LS6 2023 800V 875V 396kW 5min 200km S 2023 800V 800V 240kW 5min 200km 2023 ESSA 800V 230kW 10min 400km V09 2023 H-GEA 800V 380kW 10min 400km S HI 2023 AI 800V 187kW 10min 197km 009 2022 11 SEA 800V 360kW 5min 120km G9 2023 9 800V 800V 315kW 5 200 E8 SEA 800V 200kW ES 2024 Q1 800V+4C 800V TopElectricSUV 2024 2009 1210 22 2023 8 16 4C-10 30 80%10 800 4C 4C 4C 2024 44 4C 2023 8 16 2023 11 2 2023 10 7 2023 10 17 2023 10 21 2023 11 17 8 80 6 2023 10 16 10 16 2023 DAY CATL EXEED/2024 2009 1210 23 45 0.2C-8C 46 Denis Y.W.Yu,et al.Effect of Electrode Parameters on LiFePO4 Cathodes 2023 80%280 47 2019-2023Q3 48 Wind 2023 2023Q3 2.2pcts 3.3pcts ATL BYD CATL 4680 0123456789102019年 2020 年 2021年 2022年 2023 年Q1-3 2024 2009 1210 24 49 2021Q1-2023Q3 50 Wind 5 2 1/51 2019-2023Q3 52 Wind LMFP LiMnxFe1-xPO4 LFP LiFePO4 FeO6 MnO6=x 10-20%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.00 0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.02019年 2020 年 2021年 2022年 2023年Q1-3 2024 2009 1210 25 53 LiFePO4 54 Super:2022 44 11 2022 9 23 55 56,PP PET PI 8 m PET 6 m 1.2 m 6 m PET 4 m 1 m 11 26 2.4 33 75 2.3 CN115995534A 2023/4/21 CN116805691A 2023/9/26 CN116666624A 2023/8/29 CN116259754A 2023/6/13 CN113555546A 2021/10/26 CN109354002A 2019/2/19 CN109231182A 2019/1/18 CN108996484A 2018/12/14 CN108987749A 2018/12/11 CN108923090A 2018/11/30 CN108598386A 2018/9/28 2024 2009 1210 26 57 58 59+60+2024 2009 1210 27 22 23 2.5 2022 6 4.25 51%2023 4 7 嵙 0.7 9 1.8+10 100 100 100 200 6000 61 5200 1100 5500 50 20 40 100 100 100 200 6000 6000 10%2023 2024 2009 1210 28 62 2021Q1-2023Q3 63 Wind LiFSI 92%80%64 2019-2023Q3 65 Wind SNE research 2023 64Gwh 2023Q3 25.1Gwh 29.6%2023 H1 748.5 39.6%0%50%100%150%200%051015202530 0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.02019年 2020年 2021 年 2022年 2023年H1 2024 2009 1210 29 66 67 Wind SNE research LG 22 21 LG LG 2021 8 31 LG LG 4.5 2023 11 28 LG 2024-2030 LG 120 68 2016-2023Q3 69 2021-2023 Wind:2022 2020 20%2021 13%2022 15%2023H1 25.17%LG SDI 2021 NorthvoltAB UltiumCells LLC 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%02004006008001,0002019年 2020 年 2021年 2022年 2023年H1 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.021Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 Gwh Gwh(%)-50%0%50%100%150%200%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3(%)(%)2024 2009 1210 30 70 71 Wind 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.002019年 2020年 2021年 2022 年 2023H1(%)2024 2009 1210 31/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2009 1210 32 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2024 2009 1210 33 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522