20240104_华福证券_机械设备行业：钛合金导入消费电子板块复苏带动刀具市场需求外溢_31页.pdf

1 Table_ First Table_First|Table_ReportType Table_ First|Table _Sum mar y 8 IDC 0.4%10 OPPO 3C 3C CNC CNC CNC/1.5 2024 53.46 PCB Table _Fi rst|Table _Rep ortDa te 2024 01 04 Table_ First|Table _Ratin g()Table _Fi rst|Table _Cha rt Table_ First|Table _Auth or S0210522100001 PYL Table_ First|Table _Con tacte r Table_ First|Table _Relat eRep ort 1 2023.11.18 2 2023.11.16 3 2023.11.11-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2022-112022-122022-122023-012023-022023-032023-032023-042023-052023-052023-062023-072023-072023-082023-092023-092023-102023-11沪深300 机械设备(申万)2|1.1 1.1 3C.1 1.2 3C.4 1.3.6 2.11 2.1.11 2.2.12 2.3.14 3 24 50.16 4.21 4.1.21 4.2 PCB.23 4.3.25 5.27 1.1 2.1 3 3C-.2 4 3C.2 5.3 6.4 7.5 8.5 9.6 10 Ti-AI.6 11.7 12 Iphone 15 pro.8 13 14 pro.8 14.9 15.10 16.10 17.10 18.10 19.11 20.11 21/.11 22.12 23.13 24.14 25.15 26.15 27.18 28.19 29.19 XVCXuNrMoNoPrPoNqNqPrQbRbP9PnPqQmOmQfQrRpOeRnNrMbRmNrRxNrQoRxNoNmP 3|30.20 31.21 32%.22 33.22 34 3C.22 35.23 36.24 37.24 38.24 39.25 40.26 41.26 1|1 1.1 3C 2023 Canalys 2023 2.70 2.58 13%10%2023 1%2.946 2023 6430 5%2023 5%6670 2023 10 8 IDC sale out 0.4%10 OPPO 3C 2023 10 26 Xiaomi 14 Pro 2023 10 19 OPPO Find N3 MIM 7%3C 1 2 Canalys Canalys 2|2023 7 Magic V2 3D 3D 9 iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max Apple Watch Ultra2 3 3C-IT 3D 4 3C Iphone15 Pro/Pro Max iPhone 14 20g Apple Watch Ultra/Ultra2 49 G Magic v2 91%3D Galaxy S24 Ultra Techweb Galaxy S24 Ultra iPhone 15 Pro Max Galaxy Watch5 Pro OPPO Find N2 0.015 64 1 3|Find N3 MIM 7%Xiaomi 14 Pro 14 Pro Watch 4 Pro 48 IT 3D 3C 3C 5 4|1.2 3C Ti 1660 4.54g/cm3 6 451.g/cm 50%57%/600 C-196-253 C=15.24W/(m K)1/4 1/5.1/14 50%5|3C SUS304 SUS316L AL6063 AL7075 7 g/cm3 MPa MPa HB 5(%C TC4 4.43 895 825 270-310 10 1662-1668 SUS304 7.93 480 177 187 40 1375-1450 SUS316L 8.03 515 205 187 40 1398-1454 AL6063 2.75 205 170 95 9 568-652 AL7075 2.81 524 462 150 11 475-635 3C 8 80%30%-40%70%30%-40%+CNC CNC+CNC+CNC CNC 3D 6|9 Wind 1.3 99%8%10 Ti-AI Ti Ti 3AL/(g/cm3)4.54.7 4.14.7/GPa 95115 120145/MPa 3801150 700-990/MPa 480-1200 8001140/550 750/600 650 20/%1025 210/%20 1020/660-20 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000():(A356,):)7|882(-Ti)(-Ti)11 6%(Zr Sn),T1T7 T7ELI(4%)(10%),Ti-75 T 12+,T8+(6%;TC4ELI TC4ELI TC3TC12 TC4ELI T7(3%)()350C T1T5 T8T9+,TB6 TB10 8|3C 100%99%/12 Iphone 15 pro 13 14 pro 9|10 CNC DOE 100+14/450 50%/.()/2020 10|15 16/2020/2020 17 18/2020/2020 11|2 2.1 19/(g/cm3)/Gpa/Gpa/(KJ/m2)/Gpa/W/m/10-4-1/7.67.8 6365HRC 2.2 4 210 41.8 11.72 200250 7.77.9 6366HRC 2.4 4 210 41.8-300400 W18Cr4V 8.7 6366HRC 33.4 4 180320 210 20.9 11 620 YG6 14.615 89.5HRA 1.45 4.6 30 630340 79.4 4.5 900 YT14 11.212 90.5HRA 1.2 4.2 7 33.5 6.21 900 Al2O3 3.95 91HRA 0.450.55 5 5 350400 19.2 7.9 1200 Al2O3+TiC 4.5 9394HRA 0.550.65 Si2N3 3.26 9193HRA 0.750.85 3.6 4 300 38.2 1.75 1300 3.473.56 10000HV 0.210.49 2 900 146.5 0.91.18 700800 65008000HV 2.8 4.2 560 100108.7 5.46.48 700800 3.45 60008000HV 1.0 1.5 720 41.8 2.53 10001200 5000HV 1.5 1000 20 21/2022 2022 126.39 32.78 6.57020406080100120140 12|CBN PCD PCBN PCD PCBN,22 2.2+64%26%2%4%3%2%54%28%5%5%5%3%53%21%8%8%6%3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%13|23 a a a(500C)TA7 TA8 a TB1 TB2+a TC1 TC4(a+)-45 1/61/7 Ti 45 1/2(600C)1 2 1 14|2 3 4 CBN 250 m/min,5 PCD 24 2.3 15|25 2022 1-2 3 Wiper 26 Ti YG(ISO K)(W2Mo9Cr4VCo8)YBG202 YBG102=-5-8 a=10-15=-3-5 K=4575 r=0.5-1.0mm Ra0.2 m a=13mm f=0.1-0.3mmm/r;TC4 v=2660m/min 16|3 24 50 CNC 1 Iphone15 Pro/Pro Max iPhone 14 20g 2 Apple Watch Ultra/Ultra2 49 G 3 Galaxy S24 Ultra Techweb Galaxy S24 Ultra iPhone 15 Pro Max 4 Galaxy Watch5 Pro 5 Xiaomi 14 Pro 14 Pro 6 Watch 4 Pro 48 2022-2023 1 2022 2.264 2023 Pro 46.8%2023 15pro 3167 24 50%2 2022 2.609 2023 Ultra 8.4%Ultra 10%3 17|2022 1.531 14Pro 2 20 200 2022-2023 1 2022 3215.63 2023 4160 8 342 1368 32.9%Apple Watch Ultra 2 5%2 2022 631.81 58%910 501 11%3 2022 924.14 1300 Galaxy Watch5 Pro 72.1 288.4 22.18%/1/1.5/2 CNC 100%MIM 3D 24 53.46 18|27 2022 2023E 2024E 12.1 12 12.4 2.609 2.55 2.6 2.264 2.2 2.25 1.531 1.55 1.6 OPPO 1.003 1 1.1 VIVO 0.99 1 1.1 3.703 3.7 3.75%0.00%2.66%11.40%0 0 10%0 14%50%0 0.13%1.25%OPPO 0 0 0.20%VIVO 0 0 0.20%0 0 0.10%0 3187 14131.5 0 0 2600 0 3167 11250 0 20 200 OPPO 0 0 22 VIVO 0 0 22 0 0 37.5 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 2 2/25.00 24.00 23.00 0.00 7.65 32.50 0.00 11.47 48.75 0.00 15.30 65.00 IDC Omdia Canalys IT 2022 19|28 2022 2023E 2024E 9430 13000 17100 924.14 1300 1795.5 3215.63 4160 5301 631.81 910 1368 4658.42 6630 8635.5%0.00%5.03%9.98%0 22.18%30%0 5%10%0 10.00%15.00%0 1%5.00%0 653.64 1705.725 0 288.34 538.65 0 208 530.1 0 91 205.2 0 66.3 431.775 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 2 2 100%90%80%/25.00 24.00 23.00 0.00 1.41 3.14 0.00 2.12 4.71 0.00 2.82 6.28 IDC Watch fsces Counter Point 2022 29 2022 2023E 2024E 12.1 12 12.4 9430 13000 17100%0.00%2.66%11.40%0.00%5.03%9.98%/1.00 1.00 1.00 1.5 1.5 1.5 2 2 2-=1.5 0.00 11.47 48.75-=1.5 0.00 2.12 4.71-=1.5 0 13.59 53.46 20|IDC Watch fsces Counter Point Omdia Canalys IT 2022 3C 30 21|4/1 3C 3C T 2 IPO 960 3 2021 2022 4 5 4.1 3C&PCD CVD 31 5 25 25 13 5 25 22|2022 4.14+27.17%0.63+15.37%2023Q1-3 2021 2022 3C 1 34 3C 32%33 Wind Wind-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100200300400500(%)51.82%48.17%47.79%49.22%46.23%44.80%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%54%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 23|4.2 PCB PCB PCB PCB 2021 1 Prismark 2020 PCB 19%1 35 PCB PCB 1)PCB:PCB PCB 2)PCB:PCB 3):T 3C 4)PET/PVC/AR AG 3C MiniLED 24|36 22-23 37 38 Wind Wind-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%02004006008001,0001,2001,400(%)30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 25|4.3 39 2023 5.88 46.07%1.06 1.28%1.02 2.07%2.3 104%0.43 104.48%0.43 115.92%23Q3 42.98%3.32pct 18.78%0.28pct 26|3C 1 2 3 4 5 40 41 Wind Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01002003004005006007002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3(%)49.45%50.46%50.90%50.30%48.85%44.10%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 27|5 1 2 3 4 28|“”“”。6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6-20%-10%6-20%6 5%6-5%5%6-5%612 A 300 500 1436 MT 20 200120