20240101_国盛证券_2024年电力行业投资策略：“火”电重估“水”到渠成“核”力全开_41页.pdf
|2024 01 01 2024 2023 12.22 SW 300 12.02pcts 11 1 2023 6.5%2024 1.16 5.8%2024 2025 2024 14 2015 2023 2024 2024 ROE 2019 CCER 2024/S0680520070001 1 2023-12-24 2 2023-12-17 3 11 11.6%2023-12-16 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 600795.SH 0.16 0.40 0.47 0.52 26.00 10.40 8.85 8.00 600011.SH-0.47 0.99 1.00 1.12-16.38 7.78 7.70 6.88 000543.SZ-0.19 0.63 0.73 0.83 23.89 10.52 9.03 7.95 600642.SH-0.22 0.64 0.74 0.82 24.90 9.86 8.61 7.76 600025.SH-0.38 0.43 0.47 0.52 17.47 20.30 18.29 16.79 600900.SH-0.94 1.24 1.41 1.49 22.41 18.83 16.54 15.66 003816.SZ-0.20 0.22 0.24 0.26 13.63 13.93 12.75 11.99 601985.SH-0.48 0.55 0.61 0.67 12.55 13.34 12.15 11.05 Wind Wind-32%-16%0%16%2022-12 2023-05 2023-08 2023-12 300 2024 01 01 P.2 1.4 1.1.4 1.2 6.5%.9 2.12 2.1 2024 5.8%.12 2.2.14 2.3.16 3.18 3.1.18 3.2.19 3.3.23 4.26 4.1.26 4.2 ROE.26 4.3.28 5.30 6.35 6.1 CCER.35 6.2.37 7.39.40 1 2023.4 2 Wind.4 3 Wind.4 4 Wind.5 5 Wind ROE%.5 6.5 7 2021.6 8 2021.6 9.6 10 2021.7 11 2021.7 12.7 13 2021.8 14 2021.8 15&.8 16 2021.9 17 2021.9 18 2021.9 19 2021.9 20.10 21.10 22.10 23.11 24.11 25.11 26.12 27.12 28 2023-2024 1.23 1.16.13 0YAZyRqNmPpOpRmPqNqPoP9PaO6MnPmMmOnReRoOpOfQrRmO6MpPyQMYrNtPMYnMmM 2024 01 01 P.3 29.13 30.14 31.14 32.14 33.14 34 2011-2022.15 35.15 36 2005-2023.15 37.16 38 2017.16 39.16 40.16 41.17 42.18 43.19 44.20 45.20 46 2024-2025/.21 47 2026/.21 48.22 49.24 50.26 51.26 52.27 53.27 54.27 55.27 56 ROE.27 57.28 58/.28 59/.28 60.29 61.30 62.32 63.32 64.32 65.32 66.33 67.33 68.33 69/.33 70/.34 71/KW.34 72 2018-2022.34 73.35 74.35 75.36 76 2013-2017 CCER.37 77.37 2024 01 01 P.4 1.1.1 2023 12 22 SW 1.94%11 300 12.02pcts 2023 1.13 7.09%0.92 0.19%968.37 103.48%1 2023 Wind 2 Wind 3 Wind Wind Wind 2024 01 01 P.5 4 Wind 5 Wind ROE%Wind Wind 2023 5.8%2023 SW 9456.41 6.70%8214.6 0.95%547.69 730.26%6 Wind 2024 01 01 P.6 7 2021 8 2021 Wind Wind ROE 2023 SW 0.13 17.89%673.97 21.42%405.25 10.96%9 Wind 2024 01 01 P.7 10 2021 11 2021 Wind Wind 2023 SW 1159.32 4.33%649.53 3.21%190.27 13.11%12 Wind 2024 01 01 P.8 13 2021 14 2021 Wind Wind 2023 2023 SW 356.49 4.5%233.53 4.43%44.26 1.32%2023 SW 799.14 6.41%457.33 8.69%176.6 3.39%15&Wind 2024 01 01 P.9 16 2021 17 2021 Wind Wind 18 2021 19 2021 Wind Wind 1.2 6.5%2023 6.5%2023 111 83678 6.3%2.8pct 11 7630 11.6%2023 9.2 6%7%12 1-11 6%6.5%2024 01 01 P.10 20 iFind 21 22 iFind iFind 2023 1-11 1 11 80732 4.8%56178 5.7%10636 6.2%2714 16.8%7252 12.5%3952 4.5%2024 01 01 P.11 23 iFinD 24 25 Wind iFinD 2024 01 01 P.12 2.2.1 2024 5.8%1 2023 6.1%2023 4.1%10.0%3.9 10%39.3%GDP 26 27 iFind iFind 2024 5.8%2023 GDP 5.2%2023 GDP 5.3%2024 5%11 2023 1-11 6.3%6%12 2023 6.5%2023 GDP 5.3%2023 1.23 2024 GDP 5%5.8%1.16 2024 01 01 P.13 28 2023-2024 1.23 1.16 Wind 2023-2024 9.41/9.97 2016-2020/103.4%2021-2022 2023 2024 2023-2024/102.3%102.4%2023-2024 9.41/9.97 2023/2024/76GW/60GW 167GW/150GW 2023/2024 47GW/80GW 7GW/7GW 2.9GW/4GW 29 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 E 2024 E 2025 E 59,187 63,077 68,449 72,852 75,110 83,128 86,372 91,986 97,321 101,701 yoy 5.0%6.6%8.5%4.5%3.1%10.3%3.6%6.5%5.8%4.5%61,425 64,951 71,118 75,034 77,791 85,343 88,487 94,102 99,657 104,142 yoy 5.6%5.9%7.7%4.7%3.7%9.7%3.7%6.3%5.9%4.5%44,371 46,627 50,739 52,202 53,303 58,058 58,888 62,315 63,240 63,688 yoy 3.6%5.1%6.7%2.4%2.1%8.9%1.4%5.8%1.5%0.7%11,934 11,898 12,342 13,044 13,552 13,390 13,522 12,694 13,456 13,894 yoy 5.6%0.5%3.0%5.9%3.9%-1.2%1.0%-6.1%6.0%3.3%2,133 2,481 2,944 3,484 3,663 4,075 4,178 4,360 4,625 4,916 yoy 24.9%16.3%18.7%18.3%5.1%11.3%2.5%4.4%6.1%6.3%+2,988 3,945 5,093 6,305 7,274 9,820 11,893 14,732 18,336 21,644 yoy 32.0%29.1%23.8%15.4%35.0%21.1%23.9%24.5%18.0%33,211 34,119 35,226 35,640 37,016 39,092 41,350 42,050 42,750 43,250 3,364 3,582 4,466 4,874 4,989 5,326 5,553 5,846 6,246 7,000 14864 16367 18426 21005 28153 32848 36544 44,144 50,144 56,144 7742 13025 17463 20468 25343 30656 39261 56,000 71,000 84,000 105,388 110,604 114,367 119,055 124,517 129,678 133,239 137,907 145,907 151,907 Wind 2024 01 01 P.14 2.2 2022 30 2023 2024 7 2024 2025 2024 14 30 31 Wind Wind 32 33 Wind Wind 1+=1-2022 13 15.6 2024 01 01 P.15 34 2011-2022 35 Wind Wind 6400 2021 2022 2803 2823 2021 2022 36 2005-2023 Wind 2022 2023 11 2024 01 01 P.16 37 38 2017 Wind 2.3 2023 10 39 40-0.05/2024 01 01 P.17 2.2 2020 8000 2 1.5 2023 10 25 41 2021/2/25 2021/4/19 2021 30 60 2021/10/29 2 3000 4000 1.5 2022/1/24 2022/1/6 2022/8/24 2023/10/25 2024 01 01 P.18 3.3.1 2002 2015 2015 42 2024 01 01 P.19 3.2 43 SO-2024 01 01 P.20 44 15/ELCC LSE EFC PJM LSE BRA IA IA BRA IA 3 LSE 4 5-11 10 2024 1 1 45 330/KW/20242025 30%/50%2026 50%10%50%100%2024 01 01 P.21 2024-2025 30%50%2026 50%70%2024-2025 30%0.020.03/50%0.0350.055/46 2024-2025/Wind 47 2026/Wind 2024 01 01 P.22 我 们根 据火 电上 市公 司 2 0 22 年煤 电装 机与 发电 量情 况，测 算出 各公 司容 量补 偿情况：48 A 8.47 1.53 2.36 2.32 7.47 12.19 4.24 7.13 6.28 2.58 2.51 0.54 1.11 3.59 1.2 1.15 5.03 1.22 0.71 0.68 6.36 6.99 3.54 1.29 4.35 8.75 0.31 0.02 2.09 5.68 3.57 4.51 6.6 24.64 2.28 5.79 0.95 4.21 3.78 2.92 6.70 16.21 8.54 3.05 2.32 3.35 3.85 3.02 1.63 6.22 10.96 27.04 0.41 5.08 0.94 1.91 3.83 1.91 3.95 7.34 4.34 7.94 4.79 1.18 11.33 1.42 1.45 2.32 3.74 3.00 17.43 17.96 5.17 4.05 0.73 1.20 1.32 4.07 3.73 1.78 2.26 2.40 0.21 5.27 6.01 6.32 0.13 4.08 1.37 2.46 0.88 4.36 3.26 0.58 0.11 8.47 17.74 47.66 7.94 6.36 24.64 50.32 95.15 82.8 3.26 13.05 30.26 11.04 4.21 3.78 9.35 1.2 10.64 Wind 2024 01 01 P.23 3.3 2023 2024 2024 2017 6 2021 5 2024 01 01 P.24 49 2015 11 2017 8 8 2019 7 2020 3 2020 11 2021 4 6 2022 1 2025/2030/2023 9 2023 10 2023 2024 6 2023 2024 01 01 P.25 2023 2023 2024 01 01 P.26 4.4.1 11 20 90 3 2024 2023Q4 2024 Q3 50 51-4.2 ROE ROE 40-50%2003 8 18 2021 40-60 2024 01 01 P.27 1 ROE 2022 309.13 1.13 60%ROE 15%53 54 Wind Wind 55 56 ROE Wind Wind 52 2022 2024 01 01 P.28 4.3 2004 57 30=+=-2022&2022 1582.24 16.66%1011.64 70.26%0.208 2021 11.73%2023 2023 1700 2021-2022 2022 1258.62 0.22698/1219.02 0.22378/2.02%58/59/2024 01 01 P.29+2023 1 1 0.3195/2022 0.279/14.52%+0.4388/0.391/12.23%60/+0.4288 0.3195 0.391 9.67%+0.4388-0.391 12.23%2024 01 01 P.30 5.2021 2021 2022 2022 61 2013 1 2015 4000 1800 2013 6 0.43 2014 6 2014-2020 2020 5800 3000 2016 12 AP1000 CAP1400 3000 3000 2020 5800 2017 2 2017 8 2020 5800 300 2017 8 AP1000 2017 9 30 2018 2 2018 1 3 5 600 6 8 2017 2 2017 1 4 4 1 1 641 8 3 4 5 6 1 2 1 2 986 2019 4 0.4350 2024 01 01 P.31 0.4203 0.4151 2021 2021 3 2035 60 7000 2022 3 2022 6 6 3 2022 4 2025 7000 2023 4 2023 3 2019 2022 5 10 2022 68 2023 10 5600 2.02%3587 5%2023 2030 2035 10%2022 2024 01 01 P.32 62 63 Wind 64 65 iFind 2022 2021 20%2021 10%-20%2022 2018 27.06%2022 43.64%2018 32.88%2022 55.30%2024 01 01 P.33 2022 828.22 99.65 2.66%2.39%712.56 90.10 14.30%12.09%10.79%2023 Q3 2.44%6.43%10.35%16.14%66 67 Wind Wind 68 69/2022 0.189/2018 2.48%0.2/AP1000 EPR 10%-18%2024 01 01 P.34 70/71/KW 2018-2022 2018 0.12/2022 0.17/0.08/2019-2022 40.55%42.25%43.44%44.09%72 2018-2022 iFind 2024 01 01 P.35 6.6.1 CCER 2021 9 2022 227.8 2023 4 15 20.53-105.52/20%73 74 2017 2 2022 8 2022 2060 206 2021 135%969 96.9 2021 15.8 2022 5954 1031 2024 01 01 P.36 75 2023 10 CCER 2017 CCER 2871 861 254 5000 1780 60%2019-2020 189 9.8 2023 10 19 10 24 4 CCER CCER CCER 2023 6 7 0 tCO2/104kWh 4.2 tCO2/104kWh 0 CCER 2023 CCER 2024 01 01 P.37 76 2013-2017 CCER 6.2 2022 11 2023 2 11 22 67/KG 64/kg 65%2.8/PC 37%perc 1.03/W 44%77 iFinD 2024 01 01 P.38 16%-24%InfoLink Consulting 2022 4 2021 6 30 3S 2616/4S 2473/2023 3 1607/2024 01 01 P.39 7.ROE 6-10 1.27 84%16%2023 2022 22.3%2022 1322 430 2024 01 01 P.40 7179.5 7169.5 17.34%1 20212025 70%2023 6 56.99GW 30.57GW 2022 22.67GW 26 6 3 2023 4 5/6 1/2 1/2 7 8380MW 2022 10 68/+2025 3300 1.2.3.2024 01 01 P.41,6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
报告吧