20230711_五矿证券_通信行业AI大时代系列报告（基础篇）：大模型与算力共振奇点时刻到来_47页.pdf

Page 1/47 Table_Main AI Table_Invest 2023.07.11 Table_Author S0950521040002 13661650971 zhoulingyaw Table_PicQuote 2023/7/11 Wind Table_DocReport(2022/9/4)(2022/6/7)5G(2022/3/2)ChatGPT AI 19 50 2017 Transformer 2022 11 OpenAI ChatGPT 5 100 2 ChatGPT AI AI AI GPU FPGA ASIC TPU 1950 AI GPU AI GPU 90%AI AI JPR 2023 GPU 84%GPU 1999 GPU 2006 CUDA 2023 5 DGX GH200 1Efl ops AI GPU CUDA AI AI 2023 3 4 5 AI AI Microsoft 365 Copilot GPT-4 Microsoft Graph AI 1 AI 2 AI OA 1 AI 2-16%-4%8%21%33%45%2022/6 2022/9 2022/12 2023/3 300Table_First|Page 2/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 1 ChatGPT AI.5 1.1 ChatGPT.5 1.2 AI.10 2 AI.17 2.1.17 2.2 AI.23 3.30 3.1.30 3.2.38 4.44 5.45 1 ChatGPT.5 2 ChatGPT.5 3 ChatGPT.6 4 2023 6 ChatGPT.6 5 1.7 6 OpenAI.8 7 ChatGPT.9 8 RLHF.9 9 AIGC.10 10 2023 AI.11 11 OpenAI ChatGPT Plus.12 12.13 13.13 14 Codex.13 15 OpenAI API.14 16 GitHub Copilot.14 17 Keeper Tax.15 18 Viable.15 19 Duolingo.16 20 ChatGPT Plugins.16 XVCXuNnQsRmNqOmPrMqPrQ9PbP8OmOrRsQnOeRpPoRiNnMmO9PpOrRwMsOtQNZpNnM Page 3/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 21.17 22 1950-2022.18 23 1950-2022.18 24 2011-2022 GitHub AI.19 25 2010-2021 AI.19 26.20 27.20 28.20 29 2020-2024 GDP.21 30 GPU.21 31 ASIC.21 32 FPGA.22 33 2022.22 34.23 35.23 36 DGX GH200.24 37 Spectrum-X.24 38 cuLitho.25 39 cuQuantum.26 40 cuOpt.26 41 CV-CUDA.26 42 NVIDIA Parabricks.26 43 DGX Cloud.27 44 Nemo.27 45 Picasso.27 46 NVIDIA.28 47 NVIDIA H100NVL.28 48 NVIDIA SuperPOD.29 49.29 50.30 51.30 52.31 53.31 54.31 55.31 56.31 57 ERNIE 3.0.32 58 ERNIE 3.0.32 59.33 60.33 61.33 62.34 63 AI.34 64.35 65.35 66 SenseChat 2.0.36 67 SenseMirage 3.0.36 Page 4/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 68 3.0.37 69.37 70 Microsoft 365 Copilot.38 71 Microsoft 365 Copilot.39 72 Copilot Word.39 73 Copilot Excel.39 74 Copilot PPT Word.40 75 Copilot PPT.40 76 Copilot Outlook.40 77 Copilot Teams.41 78 Copilot Teams.41 79 Copilot Business Chat.41 80 Microsoft Security Copilot.42 81 Microsoft Security Copilot AI.42 82 Microsoft Security Copilot GPT-4.43 83 Microsoft Security Copilot GPT-4.43 84.43 85 Microsoft Security Copilot.43 86.44 Page 5/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 1 ChatGPT AI 1.1 ChatGPT 2022 11 OpenAI ChatGPT ChatGPT Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer OpenAI 2022 11 30 1 ChatGPT OpenAI,2 ChatGPT Page 6/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 ChatGPT Open AI SimilarWeb 7 2023 6 16 8 4.26 12.12%7.61%4.17%3.32%3.16%3 ChatGPT Similarweb 4 2023 6 ChatGPT Similarweb 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,0002022 11 2022 12 2023 1 2023 2 2023 3 2023 4 2023 5 2023 6 12.1%7.6%4.2%3.3%3.2%69.6%美国印度日本巴西哥伦比亚其他 Page 7/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 ChatGPT 5 100 2 2022 11 30 OpenAI ChatGPT 12 5 OpenAI SamAltman ChatGPT 5 100 2023 1 ChatGPT 1 2 ITF World 2023 TikTok 13 1 Instagram 26 2 1 Facebook 42 1 5 1 OpenAI 2015 12 OpenAI Y Combinator Sam Altman CEO Elon Musk PayPal Peter Thiel Ilya Sutskever Geoffery Hinton 2019 3 OpenAI OpenAI LP 2019 7 OpenAI 10 Azure OpenAI 2023 1 OpenAI ChatGP T Office Azure ChatGPT OpenAI Azure API OpenAI 494239261320 10 20 30 40 50 60 WhatsAppFacebookSnapchatInstagramTikTokChatGPT Page 8/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 6 OpenAI OpenAI ChatGPT GPT-3.5 RLHF ChatGPT GPT-3.5 Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3.5 AI InstructGPT+RLHF ChatGPT 1 ChatGPT prompt GPT-3.5 2 prompt 3 PRO Proximal Policy Optimization 2017 OpenAI PRO PRO Page 9/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 7 ChatGPT OpenAI RLHF(Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback)8 RLHF Open AI Page 10/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 1.2 AI 1950 Alan Turing 20 50 Artificial Intelligence Generated Content AIGC AIGC 1950s-1990s AIGC 1956 1990s-2010s AIGC 2006 GPU(TPU)2010s-2014 GAN AIGC 9 AIGC AIGC Page 11/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 AI AI OpenAI AI 2023 3 4 SenseNova 5 AI AI PaLM-E Visual ChatGPT GPT-4 5620 1750 1750 2600 NLP 10 2023 AI Google 2023/2/10 ViT-22B 220 2023/2/20 MOSS 160 Facebook 2023/2/24 LLaMA 650 Google 2023/3/6 PaLM-E 5620 Microsoft 2023/3/8 Visual ChatGPT 1750 Together Computer 2023/3/11 GPT-NeoXT-Chat-Base-20B 200 2023/3/13 Stanford Alpaca 70 2023/3/14 ChatGLM-6B 62 OpenAI 2023/3/14 GPT-4 1750 Intel 2023/3/16 INT8 GPT-J 6B 60 databricks 2023/3/24 Dolly 60 Cerebras Systems 2023/3/28 Cerebras GPT 130 HPC-AI Tech 2023/3/29 ColossalChat 130 Lightning AI 2023/3/29 Lit-LLaMA 650 Bloomberg 2023/3/30 BloombergGPT 500 LM-SYS 2023/3/31 Vicuna-13B 130 UC Berkeley 2023/4/3 Koala-13B 130 Facebook 2023/4/5 Segment Anything Model 10 2023/4/6 LVDM 0 databricks 2023/4/12 dolly-v2 120 Stability AI 2023/4/14 Stable Diffusion XL 23 Meta 2023/4/14 DINOv2 11 Microsoft 2023/4/17 LLaVA 130 Stability AI 2023/4/20 StableLM 1750 Stability AI 2023/4/28 StableVicuna-13B 130 2023/4/28 LLaMA Adapter V2 650 Google 2023/5/10 PaLM 2 3400 Google 2023/5/17 DoReMi 80 2023/5/17 VisualGLM-6B 78 Meta 2023/5/22 LIMA 650 DataLearner Page 12/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 ChatGPT 2023 2 1 OpenA I ChatGPT ChatGPT Plus 20 1 2 3 2023 3 1 OpenAI ChatGPT API ChatGPT Plus ChatGPT 11 OpenAI ChatGPT Plus OpenAI OpenAI API OpenAI DALL E GPT-3 Codex Content filter API API DALLE DALL E API 3 1 2 3 256x256 512x512 1024x1024 Open AI 300 DALL E OpenAI GPT-3 Codex Content filter GPT-3 1750 Codex GPT-3 Content filter Page 13/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 12 OpenAI 13 GPT-3 Codex Content filter OpenAI,14 Codex OpenAI Page 14/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 Open API GitHub Copilot AI OpenAI Codex Keeper T ax App GPT-3 Viable GPT-3 Duolingo GPT-3 15 OpenAI API OpenAI GitHub Copilot AI 2021 6 29 OpenA I AI GitHub Copilot 2022 6 22 Copilot 10 100 GitHub Copilot OpenAI Codex OpenAI 16 GitHub Copilot GitHub Copilot Page 15/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 Keeper Tax AI GPT-3 Keeper T ax Keeper 1249 Keeper 50000 7000 17 Keeper Tax Keeper Tax Viable AI Viable OpenAI GPT-3 Viable 3 600 2000 1000 5000 AI 18 Viable Viable Page 16/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 Duolingo AI Duolingo 40 Duolingo OpenAI GPT-3 19 Duolingo Duolingo ChatGPT Plugins 2023 3 23 OpenAI ChatGPT Plugins ChatGPT ChatGPT Plugins ChatGPT ChatGPT API ChatGP T 20 ChatGPT Plugins OpenAI Page 17/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 2 AI 2.1 CPU GPU FPGA ASIC Flops 1EFlops=1018Flops 1EFlops 5 2A 25 200 CPU GPU FPGA ASIC 21 2010 Page 18/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 22 1950-2022 Artif icial Intelligence Index Report 2023 23 1950-2022 Artif icial Intelligence Index Report 2023 AI ChatGPT AI AI 2023 AI 2010 2010 20 2021 50 49601 2021 39.8%15.1%10%AI GitHub 2011 GitHub 2011 1536 2022 34.79 2022 24.2%17.3%14%Page 19/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 24 2011-2022 GitHub AI Artif icial Intelligence Index Report 2023 GitHub 25 2010-2021 AI Artif icial Intelligence Index Report 2023 IDC 2020 429EFlops 39%FP322 FP32 32 313EFlops3 FP32107EFlops4 FP32 9EFlops5 IDC 50%2025 3300Eflops IDC 2021 36%31%11%6%Page 20/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 26 IDC Gartner TOP500 IDC 2021 155.2EFLOPS 2022 268.0 EFLOPS 2026 ZFLOPS 1271.4EFLOPS 27 28 IDC IDC AI IDC AI 2019 612.4 2021 924 2025 2000 DX 0204060801001202019 2020 2021 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E EFLOPs 02004006008001,0001,2001,4002019 2020 2021 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E EFLOPs Page 21/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 29 2020-2024 GDP IDC AI AI IDC 2025 726 18 GPU AS IC FPGA GPU 89%GPU AS IC FPGA NPU GPU 10%NPU NPU 30 GPU 31 ASIC IDC IDC 16.9%29.0%26.6%27.9%26.3%10.6%16.9%17.6%17.0%16.2%-3.3%5.7%2.9%3.0%3.0%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024EAI GDP Page 22/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 32 FPGA 33 2022 IDC IDC 89%9.6%1%0.4%GPUNPUASICFPGA Page 23/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 2.2 AI AI iPhone 2023 3 21 GTC 2023 GPU T echnology Conoference CEO AI iPhone AI AI 100 Omniverse AI AI 400 4 1.4 34 GTC 2023 2023 5 29 CEO Computex 2023 AI GPU 35 Page 24/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 DGX GH200 E AI 2023 5 COMPUTE X DGX GH200 DGX GH200 NVLink NVLink Switch System 256 Grace Hopper 1-Exaflop 144TB GPU Meta DGX GH200 NVIDIA G race Hopper 36 DGX GH200 Spectrum-X 2023 5 29 NVIDIA NV IDIA Spectrum-X AI Spectrum-X NVIDIA Spectrum-4 NVIDIA BlueField-3 DPU 1.7 AI Spectrum-X NVIDIA SDK AI 37 Spectrum-X Page 25/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 30 NVIDIA GPU CUDA 300 400 AI 2023 GTC cuQuantum cuQuantum Quantum Machines NVIDIA GPU cuOpt API NVIDIA cuOpt 300 cuOpt 4000 3770 Capgemini Softserve Quantiphi NVIDIA cuOpt CV-CUDA CV-CUDA 30 VPF Python CV CUDA VPF 30 Microsoft CV CUDA VPF Parabricks AI NVIDIA Parabricks PacBio OxfordNanopore Ultima Singular BioNano Nanostring NVIDIA cuLitho cuLitho 4 GPU 40 2m GPU cuLitho 8 500 DGX H100 cuLitho 35MW 5MW 4 CPU 38 cuLitho GTC 2023 Page 26/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 39 cuQuantum 40 cuOpt GTC 2023 GTC 2023 41 CV-CUDA 42 NVIDIA Parabricks GTC 2023 GTC 2023 DGX AI Cloud AI NVIDIA DGX Cloud AI AI DGX Cloud 3.7 DGX AI AI AI NVIDIA AI Foundations AI AI NVIDIA AI Foundations NVIDIA Nemo PICASSO BioNeMo DGX Cloud Page 27/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 43 DGX Cloud GTC 2023 44 Nemo 45 Picasso GTC 2023 GTC 2023 GPU AIGC GPU 4 AI AIG C L4 AI GPU CPU 120 AI 99%L40 AI 2D 3D GPU T4 10 H100NVL ChatGPT GPU NVLink 94 GB HBM3 PCle H100 GPU 1750 GPT-3 Grace Hooper AI 900GB/s Grace CPU Hopper GPU Page 28/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 46 NVIDIA GTC 2023 47 NVIDIA H100NVL GTC 2023 NVIDIA DGX SuperPOD NVIDIA NVIDIA DGXA100 NVIDIA HDR 200Gb/s ConnectX-6 HCAs AI DGX SuperPOD SuperP OD 140 DGX A100 Infiniband DGXA 100 8 200Gb/s 2 200Gb/s Page 29/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 48 NVIDIA SuperPOD 49 Co-packaged datacenter optics Opportunities and challenges Page 30/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 3 3.1 50 2023 2023 3 16 AI API 2023 3 27 Ernie Bot AI 51 Page 31/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 52 53 54 55 56 Page 32/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 BERT 2019 3 ERNIE 1.0 NLP CV 2022 ERNE3.0 TIT AN 2600 GPT-3 50%57 ERNIE 3.0 ERNIE 3.0:Large-scale Knowledge Enhanced Pre-training f or Language Understanding and Generation ERNIE 3.0 ERNIE 3.0 ERNIE 3.0 14 45 SOTA 9 SOT A 18 zero-shot SOT A 58 ERNIE 3.0 Page 33/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 59 ERNIE3.0-10B 100 ERNIE3.0-1.5B 15 ERNIE3.0-Large 3 ERNIE3.0-Base 1 ERNIE3.0-Tiny 3000 1 2 60 ERNIE-Gen BLEU4 25%ERNIE-IE 5 ERNIE-Rank 2%ERNIE-Senta 0.6%ERNIE-Sim 10%ERNIE-Doc ERNIE-M 61 ERNIE-Finance 1.4%0.4%ERNIE-Health 0.8%1.7%ERNIE-Law 0.33%1.52%Page 34/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 PaddlePaddle 2013 PaddlePaddle 2016 8 PaddlePaddle T ensorFlow PaddlePaddle 62 AI AI 63 AI Page 35/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 64 2023 4 10 65 Page 36/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 SenseChat 2.0 2023 7 7 CEO WAIC 2023 SenseChat 2.0 SenseMirage 3.0 2023 4 10 7 70 66 SenseChat 2.0 67 SenseMirage 3.0 3.0 2023 7 7 2023 CEO 3.0 3.0 L0 L1 L2 AI 8 1000 Page 37/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 10 3000 5 10 10000 7 6 67 430 99.8%95%68 3.0 2023 AI CANN AI MindSpore AI ModelArts 2000P Flops 30 90%AI AI 69 2023 Page 38/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 3.2 Microsoft 365 Copilot 2023 3 16 GPT4 Microsoft 365 Copilot Copilot GPT-4 Microsoft Graph AI Copilot Microsoft 365 Microsoft 365 Word Excel PowerPoint Outlook T eams Power Platform Copilot 70 Microsoft 365 Copilot Microsoft 365 Copilot LLM+Microsoft Graph+Microsoft 365 Apps Microsoft 365 Copilot Copilot Microsoft 365 Word Excel PowerPoint Outlook T eams Microsoft Graph Microsoft 365 Microsoft 365 Windows 10+Microsoft 365 LLM Copilot Microsoft Graph GPT-4 Microsoft Graph Microsoft 365 Copilot Microsoft Graph Copilot Page 39/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 71 Microsoft 365 Copilot Word Copilot Excel Copilot Copilot Copilot 72 Copilot Word 73 Copilot Excel Page 40/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 PowerPoint Copilot Word PowerPoint Word Copilot 74 Copilot PPT Word 75 Copilot PPT Outlook Copilot 76 Copilot Outlook Page 41/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 Teams Copilot T eams Copilot 77 Copilot Teams 78 Copilot Teams Business Chat Copilot Business Chat Microsoft365 79 Copilot Business Chat Page 42/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 Microsoft Security Copilot 2023 3 28 Microsoft Security Copilot AI Security Copilot Security Copilot Microsoft Sentinel Microsoft Defender Microsoft Intune 80 Microsoft Security Copilot 81 Microsoft Security Copilot AI Microsoft Security Copilot 1 Security Copilot 2 Security Copilot 3 Security Copilot 4 Security Copilot Security Copilot Microsoft Security Copilot GPT-4+Microsoft Security Copilot OpenAI GPT-4 Microsoft AI Microsoft Azure Security Copilot 65 Page 43/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 82 Microsoft Security Copilot GPT-4 83 Microsoft Security Copilot GPT-4 Security Copilot URL Security copilot Security Copilot 84 85 Microsoft Security Copilot Page 44/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 4 1 AI 2 AI OA 86 AI 000977.SZ IT IT 50%2021 9 2457 1.0 2022 1.0 000938.SZ AI AI AI MLPerf AI Training V3.0 7 2022 18%300308.SZ 2021 II-VI 100G 200G 400G 800G 5G 300394.SZ 800G 300502.SZ 100G 200G 400G 800G 400G 400GZR/ZR+AI OA 688111.SH WPS Office ChatGPT 2023 7 6 WPS AI WPS AI WPS AI WPS AI PPT 300624.SZ 200 15 Wondershare Filmstock AIGC Wind Page 45/47 Table_Page 2023 7 11 5 1 AI 2 Page 46/47 Table_Page1 2023 7 11()i ii iii iv v 6 12 6 12 A 300 500 20%5%20%-10%5%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%“”“”/99 30 3165 23 9 4 603 200120 518035 100037 Page 47/47 Analyst Certification The research analyst is primarily responsible for the content of this report,in w hole or in part.The analyst has the Securities Investment Advisory Certification granted by the Securities Association of China.Besides,the analyst independently and objectively issues this report holding a diligent attitude.We hereby declare that(1)all the data used herein is gathered from legitimate sources;(2)the research is based on analysts professional understanding,and accurately reflects his/her views;(3)the analyst has not been placed under any undue influence or intervention from a third party in compiling this report;(4)there is no conflict of interest;(5)in case of ambiguity due to the translation of the report,the original version in Chinese shall prevail.Investment Rating Definitions The rating criteria of investment recommendations The ratings contained herein are classified into company ratings and sector ratings(unless otherwise stated).The rating criteria is the relative market performance betw een 6 and 12 months after the reports date of issue,i.e.based on the range of rise and fall of the companys stock price(or industry index)compared to the benchmark index.Specifically,the CSI 300 Index is the benchmark index of the A-share market.The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index of the HK market.The NASDAQ Composite Index or the S&P 500 Index is the benchmark index of the U.S.market.Ratings Definitions Company Ratings BUY Stock return is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20%;ACCUMULATE Stock relative performance is expected to range betw een 5%and 20%;HOLD Stock relative performance is expected to range betw een-10%and 5%;SELL Stock return is expected to underperform the benchmark index by more than 10%;NOT RATED No clear view of the stock relative performance over the next 6 months.Sector Ratings POSITIVE Overall sector return is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10%;NEUTRAL Overall sector expected relative performance ranges between-10%and 10%;CAUTIOUS Overall sector return is expected to underperform the benchmark index by more than 10%.General Disclaimer Minmetals Securities Co.,Ltd.(or“the company”)is licensed to carry on securities investment advisory business by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.The Company w ill not deem any