20230711_华创证券_家电行业深度研究报告：耐用消费所向格局为王_45页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 7 11+06 01-06 400 30 CR3 33%55%06 2000-2020 CR3 56%80%2.7%15.2%3.8%10%116 199 2016 600 110 CR2 19%45%2015-2021 2016-2021 50 69/58 81/10%2020 CAGR 25%+S0360520100002%()79 0.01()16,075.18 1.72()14,189.00 1.98%1M 6M 12M 3.8%8.8%4.5%2.9%12.3%15.6%2023-07-10 20230703-20230707 2023-07-09&5 2023-07-03-21%-12%-3%7%22/07 22/09 22/12 23/02 23/04 23/072022-07-112023-07-11 300 2009 1210 1 2 3 1ZEVwPsPtQoPpRpMnQsNpO9PcMaQnPnNnPmPjMoOsNiNpOpNaQpOnNvPqMoNxNmNpP 2009 1210 3.7+.7 1.9 2.10.12.15.16.18.20.21.23.26.31.31.36.39.40.42 2009 1210 4 1 2006.7 2 VS.8 3.9 4.10 5.10 6.11 7.11 8.11 9.11 10 2006.12 11.13 12/.14 13.15 14.16 15 2013.17 16 2013-2018.17 17.17 18 2013.17 19%.18 20.18 21.19 22/.21 23/.22 24/.23 25 22.24 26 2020.24 27.24 28.25 29/.25 30.25 31 20.26 32 22/.26 33.27 2009 1210 5 34 2022.27 35 2015-2022.27 36 2020.28 37.28 38.28 39.28 40 TTFAR.28 41.29 42 2018.29 43 2020.29 44 2022.30 45 2022.30 46.31 47.31 48.32 49.32 50.32 51.32 52 2018.33 53.33 54.33 55.33 56.34 57.34 58.35 59.35 60.35 61.35 62.36 63/.36 64.36 65.36 66 2022.37 67 2022.38 68 2022.38 2009 1210 6 69 22 1-8.38 70.39 71.40 72 PE Band.41 73 PE Band.41 2009 1210 7+2006 2006 15 116 2006 15 199 2006 2006 1 2006 Wind 2013/09/18+2009 1210 8 2 VS VS 1 2 3 4 5 2020 2016-2017+2009 1210 9 2015 2006 2013 1 3/8.6 2012 14+1 2009 1210 10 2 3 10 2 cost advantage differentiation 1 to B 2 80%+2008 10%17%4 5 Wind 3 0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 2022 05001000150020000500100015002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-2009 1210 11 _ 2007-2009 07 08 6 7 Wind Wind 8 9 Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 原材料上升周期原材料下行周期-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 原材料上升周期原材料下行周期-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2009-122010-092011-062012-032012-122013-092014-062015-032015-122016-092017-062018-032018-122019-092020-062021-032021-122022-09 成本同比波动持续低于格力空调均价同比均价上行同步，下行有延后能力-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%多周期成本上行与海尔均价同步成本下行后海尔均价高位滞后能力强 2009 1210 12 2001-2006 2006 10 2006 Wind 2006 2001 2006 2000 2009 1210 13 4362 2004 1600 63.3%4 CAGR-22.2%2001 2005 2004 06 03 300%18%2002 400 2005 30 92.5%CR3 2002 33%2006 55%22pct 1997 6%03 2.3%06 2.7%2000 PE 30 23 2006 10-13 2006 2006 CR3 56%2020 80%24pct 2018 Top3 2006 2110 2018 3734 77%12-30%1-11%11 2013-20150%10%20%30%40%50%60%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 1210 14 14-32%50-60%15%12/06 2.7%17 15.2%5.7 06 3.8%16 10%2.6 06 PE 12 11 PE 40 100 11-20 15-40 2012 8-15 8-28 116 199 2009-2012 2015-2017 2017 2020 2008 2012-2014 2018 2009 1210 15 2006 2004 13 Wind 2009 1210 16 2004 KA KA 2013 T+3 11 2005 6 2/14 2010 2013 2015 2013 2018 5 11 2015 2018 3 5+2009 1210 17 15 2013 16 2013-2018 Wind Wind 2010-2013 2015.2010 2011 859 591 30%2010 15%2013 25%15pct 17 18 2013 2015 2008 2010 2013 2014 2015 2013-2016 3.4pct 6.6pct 012345678 01020304050602013-01-04 2014-01-04 2015-01-04 2016-01-04 2017-01-04 2018-01-04 010020030040050060070080090010002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%Jan-10Aug-10Mar-11Oct-11May-12Dec-12Jul-13Feb-14Sep-14Apr-15Nov-15Jun-16Jan-17Aug-17Mar-18Oct-18May-19Dec-19Jul-20Feb-21Sep-21Apr-22 2009 1210 18 19%20 Wind Wind 1 2 3 591 2011 220 174 2022 2005 30 2015-2019/010203040506070-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2009 1210 19 15 20 2020 2006 2005-2020 2005-2020 5249 14146 2.69 15 CAGR 6.8%2633 8028 3.05 15 CAGR 7.7%2006 2005 19.1%2020 28.5%1.5 26.4%38.4%1.45 4.03 2005 2098 2020 1.84 3868 CAGR 4.2%*15 7.43 CAGR 14.3%15 9.34 CAGR16.1%21 2005 2017 05-17 05-17 CAGR 2020 05-20 05-20 CAGR 5249 14170 2.70 8.6%14146 2.69 6.8%19.1%32.5%1.70 4.5%28.5%1.50 2.7%1000 4599 4.60 13.6%4031 4.03 9.7%2633 8875 3.37 10.7%8028 3.05 7.7%26.4%38.6%1.46 3.2%38.4%1.45 2.5%2098 4324 2.06 6.2%3868 1.84 4.2%*9.48 20.6%7.43 14.3%182 1500 8.22 19.2%1705 9.34 16.1%2.8%15.2%5.36 15.0%13.3%4.68 10.8%5.17 223.09 43.15 36.9%222.79 43.09 28.5%P/E TTM)11.4 13.4 1.17 1.3%22.9 2.01 4.8%/0.50 33.73 67.35 42.0%58.18 116.17 37.3%Wind 12 31 2005 2.8%2020 13.3%15 4.68 2009 1210 20 CAGR 10.8%2017 15.2%2005-2020 PE TTM 11.4 22.9 CAGR 4.8%2020 2005-2020 116.2 37.3%70 116 10.8%6.8%4.8%4.2%2.7%2005-2017 2017 12 CAGR 8.6%05-17 11.4x 13.4x 2.8%15.2%12 67 15%8.6%6.2%4.5%1.3%2002 10.2%2006 32.5%4 3.18 2006 2006/2012-2017 13.4%20.8%5 CAGR 9.3%2014-2017 3 CAGR9.6%,/+2009 1210 21 2016 600 2019 110 400 30 CR2 2016 22%2022 41%CR3 2002 33%2006 55%2016 50 58/2021 69 81/22/2006 2007 40015070300501001502002503003504004502002 冷年 2003冷年 2004冷年 2005冷年 050010001500200025002013 2015 2016 2017 2019电 动 两 轮车30%35%40%45%50%55%60%CR30%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025E CR20204060801001201402013 年2014年2015年2016 年2017年2018年2019年2020年 2021空调百户保有量0204060801002013 年 2014年 2015 年 2016 年 2017 年 2018年 2019 年 2020年 2021/2009 1210 22 2017-2021 2016-2020 10.7%2017-2020 16.1%2022 2023 2003-2006 2006 2003 5 2020-2022 58.5%131.7%2001 2005 2019 23/2835226018691600169021101500170019002100230025002700290031002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006空调1500160017001800190020002100220023002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 010002000300040005000600070008000900010000LME 铜15001700190021002300250027004000500060007000800090001000011000120002019-01-02 2020-01-02 2021-01-02 2022-01-02LME LME/2009 1210 23 wind 2007 2019 2022 5000 2022 3.5 2021 69 81 74 24/wind 21-5%-3%-1%1%3%5%2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0%2%4%6%8%10%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 02468101214161820020406080100120140160180 GDP/2009 1210 24 25 22 2023 52.6%43.8%58%84%7.2 3.3 26 2020 27 2021/,52.6%,43.8%,2.7%,0.9%58%84%42%16%7.23.30123456780%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%刚性出行 弹性出行-2009 1210 25/28 21 41.8 74 139.8 100%29/30/012345灵活性劳动力替代即时性抗异常天气步行自行车公共交通私家车出租车电动两轮车39.543.847.653.256.559.263.966.773.816.919.222.727.729.73335.337.141.843.5010203040506070802013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 139.8131.2125.6115.1113.497.9020406080100120140160江苏 河南 山东 安徽 河北 浙江 2009 1210 26/2020 4.7 2019 10 4700/2022 44%2022 4%31 20 32 22/ASEANStats 50%2012-2017 2-3%3-4%24368.211063720621591489733050001000015000200002500030000印度 印尼 越南 泰国 马来西亚 菲律宾4%44%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%电动两轮车 空调 2009 1210 27 33 2022 2020 34 2022 35 2015-2022 Wind Wind 23.4%11.8%9.5%3.8%8.0(14.1)25.9 16.3 146.0(157.7)(36.7)(1.3)(200)(150)(100)(50)050100150200海尔智家美的集团格力电器海信家电春兰雅迪控股爱玛科技新日股份白电 电动两轮车(200.0)(180.0)(160.0)(140.0)(120.0)(100.0)(80.0)(60.0)(40.0)(20.0)0.020.02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 28 36 2020 37 38 1/100%2 15%wind 3 Plus 2023 1 TTFAR 39 40 TTFAR,23.4%,11.8%,9.5%,3.8%,3.6%,3.3%,1.8%,1.5%,41.2%27%17%8%5%5%ABS 5%33%2009 1210 29 6 24 41 1 24 48 2 12 24 3 12 24 4 24 48 5 24 48 6 24 48 7 12 24 8 12 24 9 12 24 10 24 48+70%22 100 Gwh 42 2018 43 2020/,40%,33%,27%,40.3%,19.4%,14.2%,10.3%,4.1%LG,3.8%,1.8%,2.1%,1.3%,2.7%2009 1210 30 20 KA+KA KA T+3 DTC 44 2022 45 2022 Wind Wind 22 21.7 83.5 361 T+3 05101520250102030405060708090 2009 1210 31 46 47 10%1.4 147288299303303541320%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0501001502002503003502019 2020 2021 2022雅迪运费 爱玛运费雅迪运费占比-右轴 爱玛运费占比-右轴 2009 1210 32 48 49 2018 Euromonitor Euromonitor 0.6pct-1pct 2015 2020 40.2%95%+50 51 Euromonitor Statista 2022 Statista 6%10-25%2020 49.5%1960-1980+37pct,99%+,11.9,4.4,3.9,0.5,0.6,1.4,1.3,2.7 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2009 1210 33 52 2018 53 Floor Covering Weekly 54 55 iRobot 2020 2019 2020 J1(2019 11)2020 3 2020 2022 60%2022 149.3 48.8%,38.2%,11.3%,21.4%,1.0%,10.5%,4.8%,12.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003,56%,43%,1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023M1-3 2009 1210 34 56 23Q2 6 85%6998 2022 441 348 786%CAGR 24%57 4.94 25%60%85%()6 6 6 2058 4940 6998 2022 441.4 348.2 789.6 366%1319%786%10 17%30%24%2020 2021 22H1 020000040000060000080000010000001200000140000016000002019 2020 2021 2022 2023M1-3 2009 1210 35 58 59 3 2022 187 2023 1-5 222 15%+5-10%20 25%23 5%2020 10%20%+15%60 61 22H1 3100 23 2700 12%-21%21Q3 16.7%23Q1 10.1%22Q1 25.2%23Q1 17.6%315751870204060801001201401601802002019 2020 2021 20220%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%739611496891090204060801001202019H2 2020H1 2020H2 2021H1 2021H2 2022H10%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 36 62 63/64 65 Wiind Wind/12.7%35.8%40.2%494 2,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,20022.01 22.02 22.03 22.04 22.05 22.06 22.07 22.08 22.09 22.10 22.11 22.12 23.01 23.02 23.03 23.04 23.05 30003250350037504000425045004750500052505500575022.0522.0622.0722.0822.0922.1022.1122.1223.0123.0223.0323.0423.05T10 OMNI G10S X1 OMNI J2 T10 TURBO J3 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2009 1210 37 31.3%-80.9%385 39.2%-70.8%37%52%2017 1%1.1%1.79%2.5%3.7%/66 2022 155876 55135 49065 19721 9088 1577 611 879 494 339/1.01%1.11%1.79%2.51%3.73%982 544 698 385 267/0.63%0.99%1.42%1.95%2.94%150 226 240 227 99/0.10%0.41%0.49%1.15%1.08%376 467 402 430 N/A/0.24%0.85%0.82%2.18%N/A Euromonitor 227 150-240 430 1 16 LDS+20 2 top2 3 22 2009 1210 38 22 4104 6311 4155 3036 2369 1668 3051 1327 4355 3154 2977 3000 67 2022 68 2022 3000 46.8%3100 28%44.9%69 22 1-8 01000200030004000500060007000空调 冰箱 洗衣机 清洁电器类 扫地机器人0500100015002000250030003500 2009 1210 39 2000-2500 20%+2/3 BOM 70 200 100+导航+避障模组电池+电机控制器其他硬件（外壳、边刷等）基站部分直接制造费用直接制造人工运输费用品牌推广销售费用品牌研发费用品牌其他费用品牌方利润渠道加价率 2009 1210 40 KA 2021 2023 21 2.5%23Q1 0.02%0.06%71 IT 400 30 600 50 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023q1 2009 1210 41+CR4 80%30-40+25 20 72 PE Band 73 PE Band Wind Wind 0501001502002503003502020/6/19 2021/6/19 2022/6/19 2023/6/19 84.962x 68.050 x51.138x 34.226x 17.314x0200400600800100012002020/2/21 2021/2/21 2022/2/21 2023/2/21 50.720 x 41.966x33.212x 24.459x 15.705x 2009 1210 42 2009 1210 43 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 44 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 45 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522