20230710_华创证券_电动两轮车行业深度研究报告：国内展空间出海绘新篇_26页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 07 10 7500 22 6070+22%19-22 CAGR 18.2%1 53 40 10 2 20/3 22 11.8/40 6 8 7500 22 6070 24%2000 21 100 1 22 18%2 3 4700 20/4.7 10 4700/91%2.4/1.1/0.7 2021 2022 2020 10%4%1.1%22 63 21 24.9 22 60%/VinFast/AJ/3660/3255 1 81%87%2+93%10-30 7-10 1 3 64%/VinFast 23Q1 0.98-35%100-110cc 5 45%125cc 20/500 Indomobil ASP S0360520100002%()79 0.01()15,919.21 1.71()14,049.20 1.97%1M 6M 12M 2.9%9.0%4.3%2.7%13.3%17.5%20230703-20230707 2023-07-09&5 2023-07-03 20230626-20230630 2023-07-02-21%-12%-3%7%22/07 22/09 22/12 23/02 23/04 23/072022-07-112023-07-10 300 2009 1210 01585.HK 19 401 YWCXvMrMmPqRpRmPrMpQoP6M9RbRmOoOtRsRiNpPoRfQqRoP7NqRoQwMsOoOwMrRuN 2009 1210 3.6 7500.6.8.11 4700.11.14.18.23 2009 1210 4 1.6 2 21/.8 3 GDP.8 4/.8 5.9 6/.9 7 22.10 8.10 9 22.10 10 23.10 11/.11 12.12 13.12 14.13 15.13 16.13 17 22.14 18 22/.14 19.14 20.14 21 EM1 e.15 22.15 23.15 24.16 25.16 26.17 27.17 28 81%.17 29 87%.17 30.18 31.18 32.18 33 20.19 2009 1210 5 34 20.19 35.19 36 SKU.20 37 SKU.20 38/.21 39.21 40.21 41.22 42.22 43 VinFast.22 44 22 VinFast.22 45 23.23 46 Indomobil.23 2009 1210 6 7500 19 19-22 18.2%22 6070+22%19-22 CAGR 18.2%19 1500-3500 22 75%22 250+9%1 29.1 30.3 3140.8 41.349.11.21.43.94.5 4.64.50.2 0.61.92.33.97.10%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0102030405060702017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022我国电动两轮车行业销量 yoy30.532.336.847.649.860.723.8 25.328.937.5 39.245.76.36.57.39.39.713.80.40.50.60.80.91.20%10%20%30%40%50%0102030405060702017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022我 国 电 动 两轮 车分价 格段销量 及增速1500-3500 3500 3500 yoy 1500-3500 yoy 1500 yoy 2009 1210 7 53 40 10 GDP GDP 13-21 GDP 99%GDP 20 19 15/8 1 GDP 2 22 12/21 28/40/6 8 7500 22 6070 24%0.91.21.62.12.32.50%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%00.511.522.532017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022我国电动两轮车出口销量 yoy 2009 1210 8 2 21/3 GDP 13-21 16-21 4/19 1 2 53 49 46 45 41 41 39 34 28 28 28 26 26 25 24 23 22 20 19 16 15 15 15 13 12 11 10 8 8 8 7 6 4 8 8 7 8 4 14 1 11 14 12 7 18 9 1 11 22 23 12 18 13 9 11 2 20 21 9 10 19 15 10 12 0102030405060电动两轮车 摩托车01020304050600 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 GDP 13.015.014.814.2 14.213.112.812.612.011.8101112131415162013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 9 19 4 1 19/19/2 3C/2000 21 100 5 GB 17761-1999(GB 17761-2018)km/h 20 25 15km/h kg 40 55 V 48 48 W 240 400 30min 7km 30min 5km/1100 mm 450 mm 1250mm 635 mm 350 mm 15 18 9 13 GB 17761-1999(GB 17761-2018)6/(GB/T 24158-2018)(GB/T 24158-2018)3C km/h 50 50 kg V D/E/F D/E(GB/T 24158-2018)(GB/T 24158-2018)2009 1210 10 36-45 22 18%22 624 18-22 23.3%7 22 8 2023 22 61%58%53%9 22 10 23 2023 22/CR2 41%/45%CR3 60%18%52%27%3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%18-25岁 26-35 岁 36-45岁 46-55岁2703994705276240%10%20%30%40%50%60%01002003004005006007002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy61%58%53%46%45%45%42%42%41%40%40%45%50%55%60%65%2009 1210 11 2 15/22 15/22 22/15 18%5%10%/1.2%/0.1%11/ASP 3 19-22 18%5%-10%4700 4.7 4700/2020/4.7/91%2.4/1.1/0.7 10 4700/10 4.7 10 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022销量份额变化,27.9%,16.8%,13.1%,5.8%,4.6%,3.9%,3.3%,3.0%,2.1%,19.5%21年销量份额12.9%9.2%5.4%4.5%4.3%26.9%18.0%14.7%4.2%4.2%4.0%3.0%2.9%2.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%爱玛雅迪新日台铃绿源雅迪爱玛台铃新日绿源小刀金箭立马小牛2015 2022销额份额变化 2009 1210 12 4700/12 ASEANstats 21 28/74.3/45.6/43/30.4 13 ASEANstats 2020 2021 2814 22/2814+17%15-22 CAGR 0.7%/1586/522/300 7534 8240 9160 10187 11542 12783 13941 15430 16898 18710 20276 22127 24368 47685277610868847638862594241004610654 10859114791066511063117890500010000150002000025000300002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 25272820311633773689386441204413471354065817617372061645 1673 1732181719171999 2033 2052 2050 2072 2110 2143 2159 2186849 894 944 999 1059 1109 1163 1209 1268 1317 1373 1432 1489 1551298 320 348 388 412 425 449 4625336177168017333580100020003000400050006000700080002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 74.345.643.030.417.43.101020304050607080越南 马来西亚 印尼 泰国 印度 菲律宾 2009 1210 13 86%19 20 21 14 ASEAN Automotive Federation SIAM AISI 2021 2022 2020 2020 2020 10%4%1.1%0.1%1.3%22 63 21 24.9 MotorCyclesData 22 L1+11.5%L3+59.7%22 L1+70.7%L3+39.3%15 16 MotorCyclesData Huong Le Electric two-wheeler market growth in Vietnam:An overview ASEAN Automotive Federation SIAM AISI MotorCyclesData Huong Le Electric two-wheeler market growth in Vietnam:An overview 1646 1759 2020 2118 1742 1512 1357 1586-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%050010001500200025002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022印度671 622 589 638 649 366 506 522-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01002003004005006007008002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022印尼312 327 339 325 271 249 300-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503003504002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022越南164 174 181 179 172 152 161 179-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%1351401451501551601651701751801852015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022泰国85 114 132 159 170 121 144 156-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0204060801001201401601802015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022菲律宾38 40 43 47 55 50 50 68-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0102030405060708020152016201720182019202020212022马来西亚5%0.5%0.1%0.9%9%1.1%0.1%1.3%10%4%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%越南 印度 印尼 泰国 菲律宾2019 2020 2021 202216.73.40.11.523.24.00.21.624.963010203040506070越南 印度 印尼 泰国 菲律宾2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 14 22/74%/69%/65%/26%23 EM1 e 2025 10 2026/2030 5%/15%100/350 17 22 18 22/MotorCyclesData Honda 2022 Presentation Honda 2022 Presentation 19 20 Honda2022 Honda2022 37%26%19%12%5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%Hero Honda TVS Motor Bajaj Auto Suzuki74%69%65%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%印度尼西亚 越南 泰国100 万辆,5%2026年 电 摩占比350 万辆,15%2030年 电 摩占比20387210012059317872218522670 2916 2856224631141955420238193401513217027050001000015000200002500005000100001500020000250002018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2009 1210 15 21 EM1 e 22 CNBC Indonesia CNBC Indonesia VinFast AJ 23 1 Hero Electric Gesits VinFast DECO TailG 2 Okinawa BF Goodrich Pega AJ Motostar 3 Ola Viar DIBAO NIU Yadea 4 Ampere Honda Yadea STAR8-V Vmoto 5 TVS Yadea Anbico SWAG Huong Le Market analysis of two-and three-wheeler vehicles in key ASEAN member states VinFast VinGroup 18 22 22 14 2009 1210 16 24 VinFast MotorCyclesData Huong Le Market analysis of two-and three-wheeler vehicles in key ASEAN member states Moped/Underbone/Scooter/Motorcycle Moped 50KM/h Underbone Scooter Motorcycle/Moped Scooter Moped Motorcycle Moped 16 25 Moped Underbone Scooter Motorcycle/30 50KM/h 150cc 850cc/TotalMotorcycle Hero Webmotor 12.611.110.97.05.902468101214HeroElectricOkinawa Ola Ampere TVS印度2022 年4.53.62.72.01.91.4012345VinFast Pega Dibao Yadea Anbico Niu越南2020 年2.60.50.40.10.10123Gesits BFGoodrichViar Honda Yadea印尼2020年0.90.50.1 0.10.10.00.51.0TailG Motosatr Yadea Rejus Vmoto菲律宾2020 年0.10.020.010.010.010.00.10.1DECO AJ NIU STAR8-V SWAG泰国2020 年 2009 1210 17 26 cm/(km/h)Motorcycle 50 50 18 4 50 18 Moped 50 50 16 4 50 16 FAME FAME II 50%3660/3255 2017 2030 81%87%27 1 2021 19 FAME 21 FAME II 1 1.5 1308 20%40%2 2017 2030 3 2022 15 3.1 2022-2025 1.8 3660 1 2 24 22-23 25 1.5 4 2023 700 3255 2023/2024 20/60 M 28 81%29 87%401 401,19%,81%是 否 了 解河内2030 禁摩 政策,87%,13%购 买 电 摩是否 考虑电费较油费节约成本 2009 1210 18 22 300 7000 20 17.2 5 500 401 30 31 ASEAN Automotive Federation SIAM AISI 20 21 67%93%10-30 55%80KM 50KM/h 20 91%76.5%80KM 32 401 17.20.7 0.80.5 0.5 0.602468101214161820越南 印度 印尼 泰国 马来西亚 菲律宾29%38%14%6%13%0%10%20%30%40%学生通勤上下班通勤家庭出行代步工作必备（外卖、送水等）交友娱乐使用场景93%4%3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%每天 每周2-3次 每周1 次使用频率21%55%13%11%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%日 均 行 驶距离 2009 1210 19 33 20 34 20 Dinh-Son Tran Two-wheelers in Vietnam:A baseline analysis of fleet characteristics and fuel consumption in 2019 and 2020 Dinh-Son Tran Two-wheelers in Vietnam:A baseline analysis of fleet characteristics and fuel consumption in 2019 and 2020 66%7-10 50KM/h 76%40%2000-3000 VND 6000-9000 35 401 91.0%1.2%0.7%7.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%油摩 电摩 油轻摩 电轻摩13.5%58.7%27.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%70-80KM 80-100KM 100KM+4%36%40%20%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%1000万VND 以下 1000-2000万VND 2000-3000万VND 3000万VND以上购买油摩愿意接受价格2%6%26%66%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%3年以下 3-5年 5-7 年 7-10年油 摩 更 新年限76%24%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%50KM/h 50KM/h油摩车速要求16%49%27%7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%50 万VND 以下 50-100万VND 100-200万VND 200万VND 以上油摩年维保费用 2009 1210 20 Underbone 21-32 VND Scooter 33 VND VinFast Vinfatst 264 VND/804 100-110cc 36 SKU VND Kg Km/h Km Kw Yadea VIGOR 19 93 60V22Ah 43 71 1.5 ODORA PRO 22 101 60V26Ah 55 100 1.2 ODORA S1 TTFAR 20 94 60V22Ah 45 82 1.5 ULIKE A1 18 96 60V22Ah 42 95 1 S3 PRO 23 136 72V38Ah 65 150 3.2 VinFast Vento S 56 122 3.5Kwh 89 160 5.2 THEON S 70 145 3.5Kwh 99 150 7.1 FELIZ S 30 110 3.5Kwh 78 198 3 KLARA S 40 108 3.5Kwh 48 120 1.2 Pega X-MEN 18 90 60V20Ah 50 100 1.2 AuraS+18 90 60V20Ah 60 100 1.2 NIU NQIGTS 103 114 60V26Ah*2 80 70 3 NQI Sport 67 99 60V26Ah 45 50 1.8 37 SKU VND Kg cc L L/100km 1 Underbone Blade2023 21 99 110 3.7 1.85 2 Underbone Wave RSX FI 110 22 99 110 4 1.7 3 Underbone Future 125 FI 32 104 125 4.6 1.54 4 Scooter Vision 33 94 110 4.9 1.85 5 Scooter VARIO 160 52 117 160 5.5 2.2 6 Scooter Sh Mode 125 63 116 125 5.6 2.6/S3 PRO 5 2921 VND Honda Future 125 FI 45%VinFast Honda VinFast FELIZ S 5 Honda Future 125 FI 9.6%2009 1210 21 38/VND Underbone Scooter S3 PRO VinFast FELIZ S Honda Future 125 FI Honda Vision 2300 3000 3200 3300 115 150 160 165 200 200 100 100 5.5 5.5 6 6 20 20 75 75 KM 7000 7000 7000 7000/2.7Kwh/150KM 3.5Kwh/198KM 1.54L/100KM 1.85L/100KM/2834 VND/kWh 22 VND/26780 VND/L 26780 VND/L/36 264 289 347 2676 3640 3830 3993 5 2921 4798 5308 5704 10 3527 6245 7157 7843 5 300 VND 22 VND/125cc 110cc Dinh-Son Tran Total cost of ownership comparison for electric two-wheelers in Vietnam VinFast Honda 125cc 84%2000 VND 25%39 40 401 0246810性能（续航/车速等）成本经济性电池安全性（锂电/铅酸）油摩 锂电电摩石墨烯铅酸电摩 普通铅酸电摩29%55%13%4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%1000万VND 以下 1000-2000 万VND 2000-3000 万VND 3000 万VND 以上 2009 1210 22 41 42 401 401 22 VinFast VinFast Vingroup Vingroup 23Q1 VinFast 9800-35.1%22 VinFast 25 289 34 32 43 VinFast 44 22 VinFast VinGroup Presentation Vingroup22 22 20/500 Indomobil Indomobil ASP 7%86%5%3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Yadea Vinfast Pega Dibao39%9%5%25%10%9%3%0%20%40%60%电摩续航不满足要求、车速低电摩购置成本高于油摩没有充电配套设施电池质量差、使用不足1年需要更换，或担心锂电池爆炸爬坡性能差，骑乘体验差、久骑不舒适对电摩品牌不了解，希望购买Honda、Yamaha等品牌没有购买补贴50000 45400 44118 60000 9800-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0100002000030000400005000060000700002019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 yoy34 327 6320722050100150200250 2009 1210 23 45 23 46 Indomobil 2009 1210 24 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 25 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 26 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522