20230705_招商证券_交通运输行业收费公路REITs专题报告：触底回升看好全年底层资产基本面表现_21页.pdf
|2023 07 05 REITs/REITs REITs REITs REITs 2022 9 REITs REITs REIT REIT REITs EBITDA 2022 86.4%85.2%84.6%EBITDA 20%-35%2023 2019 6 22-6 24 9813.1 3271.0 2022 40.32%2019 24.83%2023 1-5 17.5 2022 17.5%2019 32%2019 REITs%126 2.5 2810.8 3.4 2564.9 3.6%1m 6m 12m 3.2-3.2-0.0 2.2-3.3 13.2 1 2023-07-02 2 5 2023-06-25 3 5 5 2023-06-20 S1090519010004 S1090522010001 S1090522010002-30-20-1001020Jul/22 Oct/22 Feb/23 Jun/23(%)交通运输 沪深300 2.4 1 REITs.4 2 REITs.5 3 REITs.7 4.11 REIT REIT.12 1 REIT.14 2 REIT.17.20 1.20 2.20 1 REITs REITs.5 2%.5 3 REITs.6 4 REITs.8 5 REITs EBITDA.8 6.10 7 REITs P/NAV 2023 7 3.11 8.12 9.12 10.12 11.12 12 GDP.13 13 GDP.13 14.13 15.13 16.14 1ZCXxOtOpMmNsMsRsPpQqR7N8Q8OoMpPpNnOiNpPtMfQrRqO9PmMuMxNoNqMMYmPpM 3 17.14 18.14 19.15 20 REIT P/NAV 2023 7 3.16 21.17 22 REIT P/NAV 2023 7 3.19 1 REITs.6 2 REITs.6 3 REITs2022.7 4 REITs2023.7 5 REITs2023.9 6 REITs2022.9 7 REITs2023.10 8 REITs.10 9.15 10.16 11.17 12.18 4 1 REITs REITs REITs 2021 10 2022 2 REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 2022 2 2022 6 REITs REITs REITs REITs 2022 6 2022 9 REITs REITs REITs REITs 1 2 REITs 3 2022 5 31 REITs REITs REITs 2022 9 2022 REITs REITs 2023 REITs REITs 1 2 23 REITs 1 REITs 2 REITs REITs 5 1 REITs REITs Wind REITs 2021 9 30 REITs 2021 6 30 REITs 2%Wind 2023 6 30 2 REITs REITs REIT REIT REITs REIT 6 30 6.2%REIT 6 30 4.1%REITs REIT 6 30 33.7%REITs REITs REITs 6 3 REITs Wind 2023 6 30 REIT REIT REITs REIT 6.2%13.3%19.5%REIT 4.1%4.8%8.9%REITs REIT 4 3.7%37.3%33.7%1 REITs 6 6.18%-14.72%-9.98%-19.57%-24.15%-9.26%4.13%-11.02%-0.56%-33.66%-28.71%-10.59%-14.11%-23.84%-11.49%-1.27%-11.39%-1.80%-18.85%-22.41%-5.65%Wind 2023 6 30 2 REITs-13.27%-30.65%-4.76%-37.32%-22.17%-4.21%-25.13%Wind 2023 6 30 7 3 REITs 2022 REITs 22 REITs-13.4%-14%-16.8%-21.9%-55.4%-54.4%-57.4%-64.9%-105.7%85.2%84.6%83.3%80.2%79.0%78.7%REITs 2022 3 REITs2022 EBITDA EBITDA 3.20 3.85-16.8%0.54 1.18-54.4%16.8%2.55 79.8%2.09 2.41-13.4%0.31 0.74-57.4%15.0%1.55 74.3%6.66 8.53-21.9%1.04 2.98-64.9%15.7%5.20 78.1%6.06 7.05-14.0%-0.95 0.19-610.3%-15.6%3.97 65.5%3.10 6.93-55.4%-0.04 0.72-105.7%-1.3%2.17 70.2%Wind 4 REITs2023 EBITDA%EBITDA%EBITDA 1.17 0.99 84.6%0.65 0.51 15.2%16.6%78.7%1.95 1.66 14.8%16.4%85.2%1.85 1.48 13.2%23.2%80.2%1.87 1.56 83.3%0.93 0.74 79.0%2.70 2.33 86.4%Wind 8 4 REITs 5 REITs EBITDA Wind Wind 2022 REITs 1 REIT 881.09 26.14%1.34 30.51%2 REIT 1188.45 4.26%1.65 15.28%3 REIT 24.87%4 REIT 24.4%2023 REITs 1 REIT 1255.6 20%14.0 1.9 14.2%2 REIT 1186.3 11.2%13.2 2.0 226.4 9.1%3 REIT 330.9 3.7 13.4%0.6 70.1 15.9%4 REIT 1.2 128.6 22Q4 21.6%8.3%2019 35.3%2023 3 150/2022 30.3%1.9 22Q4 153.5%42.5%9 1-3 0.8 0.9 1 3 31 1.3 27%90 252 5 REIT 971.3 5.45%46.6%1.8 6.4%47.8%5 REITs2023 2022 535.31 987.08 4251.94 4588.48 3454.11 YoY-9.69%-3.30%-25.42%2022 2.99 1.99 6.59 5.96 2.83 YoY-18.6%-11.99%-7.3%-2022Q4 164.70-881.09 1188.45-YoY-26.14%-4.26%-2022Q4 0.97 0.43 1.34 1.65 1.24 YoY-24.4%-24.87%-30.51%-15.28%-2023Q1 252.00 330.90 1255.64 1186.26 971.29 YoY-13.43%20%11.20%-5.45%2023Q1 1.16 0.63 1.99 2.04 1.83 YoY 8.30%15.87%14.17%9.10%6.40%Wind 2022 4 15 2022 12 31 2022 6 27 2022 12 31 23Q1*2022 REITs REIT 90%REIT REIT 85%REIT REIT 70%REIT 5%0 REIT 6 REITs2022/22Q4 22Q4/93.99 2.51 2.9%2.91 86.2%0.73 0.8%1.78 71.0%21.30 1.37 6.5%1.54 89.3%0.29 1.4%0.78 56.7%91.14 4.77 5.2%6.26 76.1%0.92 1.0%2.31 48.5%43.60 3.15 7.2%4.32 72.9%0.24 0.5%-47.93 3.90 8.1%4.27 91.4%0.79 1.6%-Wind 2022 4 15 2022 12 31 4 13-12 31 2022 6 27 2022 12 31 10 2023 REITs 20%-35%34.0%31.6%26.0%22.5%22Q4 Q4 REITs REITs 7 REITs2023 23Q1 23Q1%2023 93.99 0.93-3.87 24.0%21.30 0.44 19.2%-91.14 1.48 39.7%-43.60 1.39 21.0%-47.93 1.46-4.60 31.6%2.31-8.89 26.0%0.77-2.25 34.0%Wind 6 8 REITs 2021-12-21 2021-12-23 2021-12-24 2021-12-28 0.5271 2021-12-28 2021-12-30 2021-12-31 2022-01-06 0.3376 2022-04-22 2022-04-26 2022-04-27 2022-04-29 0.2105 2022-06-02 2022-06-07 2022-06-08 2022-06-13 0.7281 2023-06-13 2023-06-15 2023-06-16 2023-06-21 0.6301 2022-07-18 2022-07-20 2022-07-21 2022-07-25 0.1490 2022-09-21 2022-09-23 2022-09-26 2022-09-28 0.3307 11 2022-09-23 2022-09-27 2022-09-28 2022-09-30 0.1107 2022-09-29 2022-10-11 2022-10-12 2022-10-17 0.0829 2022-11-28 2022-12-01 2022-12-02 2022-12-07 0.0949 2022-12-29 2023-01-03 2023-01-04 2023-01-06 0.1270 2023-04-04 2023-04-10 2023-04-11 2023-04-14 0.7728 2023-04-12 2023-04-14 2023-04-17 2023-04-19 0.3740 2023-04-24 2023-04-26 2023-04-27 2023-05-05 0.2093 2023-05-05 2023-05-10 2023-05-11 2023-05-16 0.0728 2023-05-19 2023-05-23 2023-05-24 2023-05-26 0.2446 2023-06-09 2023-06-14 2023-06-15 2023-06-20 0.0934 2023-06-21 2023-06-27 2023-06-28 2023-07-03 0.6836 Wind P/NAV REIT REITs REITs REIT P/NAV 1.02 REITs 7 REITs P/NAV 2023 7 3 Wind NAV 2023 3 31 2022 12 31 4 2023 2019 2019 1 7-1 18 3.2 2022 12.7%2019 11.8%4 29-5 3 2.8 5557.9 2022 121.9%6 22-6 24 9813.1 3271.0 2022 40.32%2019 24.83%2019 2023 1-5 17.5 2022 17.5%2019 32%12 8 9 Wind 2023 6 26-7 2 5300.9 757.3 8.8%2023 1-5 155.4 8.1%2019 0.7%10 11 Wind REIT REIT REIT REIT 2022 GDP 5.4 2012-2022 9.2%8.4%2013 2022 GDP 2013-2022 GDP2.5 GDP36.5%5.4 GDP35.1%2022 GDP 2013 1022 2022 1373.9 2012-2022 3.3%2018 1100 1200 1300 2021 1006.4 2020 74.4 8%2011-2021 15%13 12 GDP 13 GDP Wind Wind 14 15 Wind Wind 2022 10000 2000 2025 2050 8000 900 2013 3996.8 2021 6939.9 8 7.1%2021 254 2020 64 2020 2013 2021 8 9%14 16 17 18 Wind Wind 1 REIT 1 38.5 30 2036 12 9 1 G70 S2 2 3 15 19 2 REIT2023 6456 43.8%15.4%EBITDA 5137 61.9%2022 REIT 2023 REIT 330.9 3.7 13.4%6306.7 15.9%3 2021 2036 3.5%-9.5%2036 57157 9 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 2021 19,132 58 112 109 1,386 686 410 285 139 1,592 23,908 2022 20,103 58 113 112 1,441 707 426 298 147 1,670 25,075 4.88%2023 21,458 59 117 116 1,522 740 450 316 157 1,780 26,714 6.54%2024 23,241 61 122 123 1,631 786 482 341 171 1,925 28,881 8.11%2025 25,411 63 128 131 1,764 842 522 370 187 2,101 31,519 9.13%2026 27,476 65 133 138 1,887 891 558 398 203 2,269 34,017 7.93%2027 29,585 66 138 145 2,010 940 594 426 219 2,439 36,561 7.48%2028 31,650 66 141 151 2,125 983 628 452 235 2,605 39.037 6.77%2029 33,795 66 144 156 2,244 1,026 663 480 252 2,777 41,605 6.58%2030 35,949 66 147 162 2,361 1,068 697 507 269 2,950 44,174 6.18%2031 38,027 65 148 166 2,469 1,1044 729 533 285 3,116 46,643 5.59%2032 40,022 63 148 170 2,570 1,136 759 558 301 3,274 49,001 5.06%2033 41,930 61 147 172 2,662 1,162 786 581 317 3,425 51,244 4.58%2034 43,751 58 145 174 2,746 1,184 811 603 331 3,568 53,371 4.15%2035 45,484 55 142 175 2,822 1,202 833 623 346 3,704 55,386 3.77%2036 47,023 51 138 175 2,884 1,212 852 640 358 3,823 57,157 3.20%16 4 2021 2036 60.9 21.3 2021-2022 7.7%7.9%IRR 5.69%10 2021 638602.7 23,309 2022 664137.0 4.00%24,241 4.00%2023 701972.6 5.70%25,622 5.70%2024 755409.8 7.61%27,648 7.91%2025 821205.5 8.71%29,974 8.41%2026 885452.1 7.82%32,319 7.82%2027 950986.3 7.40%34,711 7.40%2028 1016904.1 6.93%37,117 6.93%2029 1079972.6 6.20%39,419 6.20%2030 1145863.0 6.10%41,824 6.10%2031 1209835.6 5.58%44,159 5.58%2032 1269617.5 4.94%46,468 5.23%2033 1329150.7 4.69%48,514 4.40%2034 1383726.0 4.11%50,506 4.11%2035 1434876.7 3.70%52,373 3.70%2036 1381366.1-3.73%50,558-3.47%6 硚 2023 硚 孝二期 会对 汉孝高速产 生分 流影 响，目前 硚孝二 期已于 2023 6 30 硚孝二期 定位更 多是连接武 汉和孝感的短 途旅游线路，而汉孝连接 京港澳高速，与国家高速公路 网络联系更 加紧密，更多 定位承接跨 境需求。当前 客车流量持 续快速恢复 态势，预 计随 着后 续项目 周边 旅游 业态 的复 苏，项 目车 流仍 有提 升空 间。20 REIT P/NAV 2023 7 3 Wind 17 2 REIT 1 D”21 2 REIT 1.2 18.8%EBITDA 9921 34.8%2023 2022 21.6%2022 8.3%2019 35.3%2023 1.9 2022 153.5%2022 42.5%2023 9 22 2023 4 21 2023 3 2022 2046 5%-12%2046 36673 11 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 2022 5003 6 14 54 797 545 340 683 589 2218 10250-12.98%2023 7690 9 21 81 1005 668 420 879 760 2806 14340 39.90%2024 8158 9 22 84 1225 788 489 1072 923 3274 16044 11.89%2025 8687 10 23 88 1317 823 513 1170 1009 3499 17137 6.81%18 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 2026 9492 10 25 94 1449 879 549 1304 1126 3812 18739 9.35%2027 10186 11 26 98 1570 923 577 1431 1236 2088 20146 7.51%2028 10729 11 27 101 1703 971 608 1572 1358 4390 21469 6.57%2029 11302 11 27 104 1811 1000 628 1692 1463 4622 22659 5.54%2030 11905 12 28 106 1926 1030 648 1821 1575 4866 23917 5.55%2031 12516 12 29 109 2044 1059 667 1955 1693 5113 25197 5.35%2032 13159 12 29 112 2170 1087 686 2099 1818 5373 26546 5.36%2033 13835 13 30 114 2304 1116 705 2253 1953 5646 27969 5.36%2034 14545 13 31 117 2446 1144 725 2418 2098 5933 29470 5.37%2035 15293 13 31 119 2598 1173 744 2595 2252 6235 31054 5.37%2036 15767 13 31 119 2746 1196 760 2771 2406 6520 32330 4.11%2037 16504 13 32 121 2903 1218 775 2958 2570 6818 33913 4.90%2038 17275 14 32 123 3069 1240 790 3158 2745 7129 35575 4.90%2039 18082 14 33 125 3244 1261 805 3370 2931 7455 37320 4.91%2040 18927 14 33 126 3430 1281 819 3596 3129 7796 39152 4.91%2041 19565 14 33 126 3578 1283 821 3785 3294 8037 40538 3.54%2042 20225 14 33 126 3733 1284 822 3983 3467 8286 41973 3.54%2043 20908 14 33 125 3895 1283 822 4190 3649 8542 43461 3.54%2044 21613 14 33 125 4064 1280 821 4408 3840 8805 45002 3.55%2045 22342 14 33 124 4240 1275 819 4636 4040 9077 46598 3.55%2046 17566 10 25 93 3361 964 620 3703 3227 7103 36673-21.30%4 2021 2046 303.4 85.8 2022-2023 4.7%4.8%IRR 6.9%12 2022 1169643.8 42692-16.80%2023 1579808.2 35.07%57663 35.07%2024 1820901.6 15.26%66645 15.58%2025 1950164.4 7.10%71181 6.81%2026 2134054.8 9.43%77893 9.43%2027 2297616.4 7.66%83863 7.66%2028 2466229.5 7.34%90264 7.63%2029 2606849.3 5.70%95150 5.41%2030 2755753.4 5.71%100585 5.71%2031 2907424.7 5.50%106121 5.50%2032 3069043.7 5.56%112327 5.85%2033 3239232.9 5.55%118232 5.26%2034 3419095.9 5.55%124797 5.55%2035 3609205.5 5.56%131736 5.56%2036 3780409.8 4.74%138363 5.03%2037 3972246.6 5.07%144987 4.79%2038 4174054.8 5.08%152353 5.08%2039 4386356.2 5.09%160102 5.09%2040 4609726.8 5.09%168716 5.38%2041 4778767.1 3.67%174425 3.38%2042 4954767.1 3.68%180849 3.68%19 2043 5137232.9 3.68%187509 3.68%2044 5326557.4 3.69%194952 3.97%2045 5523013.7 3.69%201590 3.40%2046 2566821.9-53.52%93689-53.53%3033989 5 2023 9 22 2023 4 21+2023 2022 5 22 REIT P/NAV 2023 7 3 Wind 20 1 2019 REITs 2 21 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
报告吧