20230628_海通证券_农林牧渔行业证券研究报告：周期底部加码大小动物产业链_38页.pdf

SAC S0850517120001 SAC S0850523040003 SAC S0850522110002 2023 6 28（优于大市，1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.2 0YDWuNsPsRnMsMnOrMqPpO7NbPbRtRrRoMsRjMnNoQkPnPzR7NmMvNNZoNtOxNrMmN 1.1 23 3 1.2 23 1 4 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.5 2.1 10 28/14-16/14.7/+4.2%298.5/344.8/Wind 0.05.010.015.020.025.030.0(/)6 2.2 5 10 6.1%4 4284 12 2.4%Wind-6.00%-5.00%-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%95.0100.0105.0110.0115.0120.0125.0130.02021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-05%-4-3-2-1012341004150420042504300435044004450()%,7 2.3 22 29.2%2017 10%1 Wind 2016 10-60.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%8 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2.4 10 22 9 23 2 Wind 0.05.010.015.020.025.030.02500300035004000450050002021-06 2021-12 2022-06 2022-12 2023-06 2023-12 2024-0610-(/)0510152025303540 300032003400360038004000420044004600480010-(/)9 2.5 Wind 0510152025303540 300032003400360038004000420044004600480010(/)10 2.6 6 11 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.12 3.1 Mysteel 6/1/3.8/22H1 1.6/143%4.7/+12%Mysteel Wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0(/,)()-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0(/,)()13 3.2 1.3/0.4/-1.0/4 4 Wind-10-8-6-4-202468102021-012021-012021-032021-032021-042021-052021-052021-062021-072021-072021-082021-092021-092021-102021-112021-122021-122022-012022-022022-032022-032022-042022-052022-052022-062022-072022-072022-082022-092022-092022-102022-112022-122022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-042023-052023-06/14 3.3 Mysteel 1-5 57.5+32.8%1-5 42.43%57.57%29.91%901 17.04%AA+308 15.48%2 188 14.78%12.18%10.61%Mysteel 1-5 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.0()29.91%17.04%15.48%14.78%12.18%10.61%901 AA+308 2 188 15 3.4 5 1210 24 48 12 4 118 Mysteel 0501001502002502021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-05()()-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-04(,)(,)()16 3.5 17 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.18 4.1 2021 1 1 1-2+2 1-2+3 1-2+1+1 2+2+1 3 2+1+DUS 19 4.2 2000-2010 50%2010 50%1996 26.7/2021 95.1/16.6%10.2pct 26.8%50%USDA(HT)/0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%020406080100120(/)20 4.3 5 483 70%483 375 2018 10/5 45.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 0%10%30%50%60%70%0 0.65 1.95 3.25 3.9 4.55(/)55 55 55 55 55 55 0%30%40%50%50%50%(/)55 71.5 77 82.5 82.5 82.5 358 322 250 179 143 107 0 46 150 268 322 375 358 368 400 447 465 483 35%35%35%35%35%35%0.0 6.5 19.5 32.5 39.0 45.5 21 4.4 2020 1 SHZD3201 g10evo-epsps 2020 7 2021 4 6106 g2-epsps gat 2021 2 DBN9004 epsps pat 2023 1 CAL16 cry1Ab/vip3Da 2021 2 DBN9501 vip3Aa19 pat 2021 2 DBN9936 cry1Ab epsps 2020 7 2021 2 DBN9858 epsps pat 2020 1 2021 4 125 cry1Ab/cry2Aj g10evo-epsps 2021 12 DBN3601T cry1Ab epsps vip3Aa19 pat 2021 12 8 cry1Ab cry2Ab 2021 12 ND207 mcry1Ab mcry2Ab 2022 4 nCX-1 CdP450 cp4epsps 2022 4 Bt11 GA21 cry1Ab pat mepsps 2022 4 Bt11 MIR162 GA21 cry1Ab pat vip3Aa20 mepsps 2022 4 GA21 mepsps 2023 1 BFL4-2 cry1Ab cry1F cp4epsps 2023 1 CC-2 maroACC 22 4.5 1 23 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.24 5.1 5 2664+10.5%4 2584+12.4%Wind 3.003.203.403.603.804.004.20/-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0()%25 5.2 Wind 2022-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%26 5.3 27 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.28 6.1 2022 2023 3 4 2022 9 2023 3 2023 4 2.01 2.66%2023 3 6.9 64.8%2023 4 2023 Q2 4 2.66%3 64.8%29 2.66%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.00.51.01.52.02.52022M9 2022M10 2022M11 2022M12 2023M1 2023M2 2023M3 2023M4 MOM%YOY%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.02022M9 2022M10 2022M11 2022M12 2023M1 2023M2 2023M3 2023M4 MOM%YOY%6.2 2022 CR5 21%9%5%3%CR5 71%27%2022 CR5 21%2022 CR5 71%,9%,5%,3%,2%,2%,2%,2%,2%,2%,1%,70%,27%,19%,9%,8%,7%WellPet LLC,2%,2%,2%,1%,1%,23%WellPet LLC 30 6.3 618 618 618 Top5 618 31 6.4 OEM/ODM 2022 2022 6 2.8 2024 12 1 4 3.1 2024 12 1 2000 0.6 2022 9 1 2020 6 2.4 2023 10 31 2 2.3 2023 11 30 2019 3 2.7 2020 12 31 2022 3 2.9 2023 12 31 5 3.5 2024 6 30 2020 4 1.9 2021 12 31 9200 1.5 2021 12 31 2022 3.7 18 32 6.5 33 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.34 7.1 2 3 35 136 8160 9586 Email SAC S0850522110002:186 0136 8014 Email SAC S0850517120001 175 0219 2360 Email SAC S0850523040003 36 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%