20230627_招商证券_彩票行业证券研究报告：疫后复苏东风已至彩票行业扬帆起航_27页.pdf

|2023 06 27/15-21 15-21 13%-15%GDP 23 1-4 49%1 2%136 2.7 1259.3 1.6 1129.6 1.6%1m 6m 12m-1.5-3.8 6.2-0.5-3.0 19.5 1 2023 19 95%2023-06-26 2 618 618 2023-06-25 3 618 2023-06-25 S1090519070002 S1090520070003-30-20-1001020Jun/22 Oct/22 Feb/23 May/23(%)商业 沪深300 2.5 1 5 2.5 3.7 4.8.11 1 11 2.11 3.12 4 13.15 1 15 2 17 3 8 25-45 20 4.21.24 1.24 2 25.26 1.26 2.26 1 5 2%.7 3.7 4.7 5.9 6.9 WUEVzQtOoNmNqOoNnQqPpObRcM6MtRpPtRoNiNnNoQkPtRyQ6MmMvNxNpMoMNZnQsP 3 7 2015-2020.10 8 19-21.10 9.11 10.12 11.13 12.14 13.14 14 2021.14 15 YOY.14 16.15 17.15 18 2015-2022.16 19 2022 GDP.16 20 2015-2020.16 21 2022.16 22.17 23.17 24 YOY.17 25 YOY.17 26 2015-2022.18 27.18 28 YOY.18 29 YOY.18 30.19 31.19 32 2022.19 33 2021.19 34 2021.20 35 2021.20 36 25-45 8.20 37 3K-10K 7.20 38 85%.21 4 39 6.21 40.21 41(:).22 42(:).22 43.22 44 8.22 45.23 46 8.23 47 23 48.24 49.24 50.24 51.26 52.26 1.6 2.8 3.9 4.13 5.25 5 1 37 1987 7 50 1 1994 4 2001 2003 2008 2009 2015 1 2 1 6 1 M N MN N 2 5-50 2 N M MN L NLM 2 8 2 2021 60%2022 2022 42%2020 7 2022 60 2015 2020 8”7%7 2%3 3 1 4 64.10%62.05%61.60%53.94%53.86%66.45%43.37%36.60%16.02%19.38%21.76%32.36%28.89%22.43%35.98%42.61%8.22%7.22%5.77%4.40%6.76%8.81%14.58%14.00%11.55%11.29%10.83%9.28%10.45%2.03%0.00%0.00%0.12%0.07%0.04%0.03%0.04%0.27%6.08%6.80%0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022乐透数字 型 竞猜型 即开型 视频型 基诺型 8 2 1987-1993 1994-2000 2001 2009 2010 2012 2015 11 2 2009 7 2010 9 2012 1 2015 1 2015 11 4 1 15 86.8%2015 2014 22%2001 2014 850 2012-2014 10%2014 38%PC 2007 9 8%12%5 6%2015 2015 2018 105 2016 2001 2015 3/2001.12 500 2002.3 2007.10 2009.7 2010.9 2012.9 500 2013.1 1 5 17 20 38 80 150 230 420 850 400%240%18%90%111%88%53%83%1 0%100%200%300%400%500%02004006008001000销售额 YOY0.2%0.6%1.7%1.9%2.9%4.8%6.8%8.8%13.6%22.2%0%5%10%15%20%25%2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 10 2015.4 2016 2018.8 12“105”2 19-21 19-21 5-10 2019 2020 10 200 2020 3 7 2022 60 2015 2018 50%7 2015-2020 8 19-21 3679 3946 4267 5115 4221 3340-4%7%8%20%-17%-21%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01000200030004000500060002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020销售额 YOY 11 1 30%500 9 2 12 2015 10 3 50%75%50%-60%13%-15%20%-37%2015 20%20%30%50%60%30%5%5%13 11 4 1 13%-15%2015 15%13%4 36%49%2%13%37%49%1%13%3D 34%52%1%13%8 30%57.5%0.5%12%20%65%15%3%-4%9%-12%7%-8%12%6%-7%1%1%-2%9%-12%5%5%14 10%12 13 2 20%-37%20%36%2021 568 284 82%14 2021 15 YOY 28%13 60%30%2021 15%15%8%13%6%11%14%18%民政 体育 教育 医疗养老 乡村振兴 残疾人事业 公益995 1086 1163 1339 1159 968 1047-5%9%7%15%-13%-16%8%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0500100015002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021提取额 YOY 15 16 17 1 1 GDP 0.3%-0.4%2022 GDP 0.35%GDP 2001 2014 22%2015 15-17 2018 37%2019 2 2021 2017 875 40%2018 787 32%2019 20 50%2020 16 18 2015-2022 19 2022 GDP OECD 20 2015-2020 21 2022 OECD 2 36793946426751154221334037334247263 282 305 365 301 239 267 303 010020030040001000200030004000500060002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022销售额(亿元）人均销售 额（元）1,014631102 92 7960 510.40%0.35%0.32%0.23%0.36%0.35%0.29%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%020040060080010001200销售额 GDP 占比3024515010920523298050100150200250300350 17 22 23 2 1 2015 2018 2017 2170 2097 2018 37%2022 1481 2765 1000 24 YOY 25 YOY 2008 2018 2018 1987 2022 1481 2765 2015 2065 2170 2246 1912 1445 1423 1481-2.2%2.5%5.1%3.5%-14.8%-24.4%-1.5%4.1%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%050010001500200025002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022销售额 YOY1664 1881 2097 2869 2308 1895 2310 2765-6%13%11%37%-20%-18%22%20%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%05001000150020002500300035002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022销售额 YOY 18 26 2015-2022%27 2 2022 36.6%42.6%14.0%6.8%8 2020 7 2015 2020 8 10%-15%2021 28 YOY 29 YOY 55%52%51%44%45%43%38%35%45%48%49%56%55%57%62%65%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022福彩 体彩2358 2449 2628 2759 2273 2219 1619 1554 4%7%5%-18%-2%-27%-4%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0500100015002000250030002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022销售额 YOY589 765 929 1655 1219 749 1343 1809 30%21%78%-26%-39%79%35%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05001000150020002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022销售额 YOY 19 30 31 3 50%60%30%5%5%32 2022 33 2021 303 285 246 225 285 294 544 594-6%-14%-8%27%3%85%9%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01002003004005006007002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022销售额 YOY425 445 462 474 441 68 0 0 4.3 2.7 1.8 1.3 1.7 9.1 226.8 288.6 5%4%3%-7%-85%-100%-39%-39%-31%-29%29%446%2390%27%-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%2500%3000%01002003004005002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022视频型销 售额 基诺型销 售额视频型YOY 基诺型YOY1501621951962222292933203424430 100 200 300 400 500安徽云南四川山东浙江106 81 74 70 58 55 50 46 40 39 020406080100120广东 浙江 江苏 山东 河南 四川 云南 湖北 福建 河北 20 34 2021%35 2021 3 8 25-45 8 25-45 3K-10K 7 mobtech 2020 6 25-45 25-34 35-44 41.5%/42.2%3K-10K 7 20K 10%3K 13.8%9 43.8%/43.1%/10.5%/12.5%/20.1%/22.9%6 36 25-45 8%37 3K-10K 7%MobTech MobTech 2.58%2.36%2.00%1.83%1.49%1.36%1.27%1.22%1.22%1.19%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%彩票公益金/财政收入1.31.91.956.06101119.82025.2300 10 20 30 40法律援助中小学生 校外研 学实践 活动乡村学校 少年宫 建设文化公益 事业红十字事 业教育助学居家和社 区基本 养老服 务医疗救助欠发达革 命老区 乡村振 兴残疾人事 业支持地方 社会公 益事业 发展中央专项彩票公益金安排（亿元）13.1%41.5%42.2%3.2%0%10%20%30%40%50%24 岁以下 25-34 岁 35-44 岁 45 岁以上中国互联 网彩民 年龄分 布13.8%31.9%41.4%10.4%10.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%小于3K3-5K 5-10K 10-20K20K 以上中国彩民 收入结 构 21 38 85%39 6%MobTech MobTech 4 1 22 11 23 1-4 1751/+49%21 54%1197/+74%554/+13.9%40 11-12 11.2%43.8%43.1%1.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%高中及以 下 专科 本科 硕士及以 上中国彩民 学历情 况一线城市10.5%新一线城 市12.5%二线城市20.1%三线城市22.9%四线城市19.5%五线及以 下城市14.5%308 225 329 311 328 320 314 345 333 297 518 618 332 418 498 503-14%19%11%7%8%-8%-13%6%7%1%57%92%8%86%51%62%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0100200300400500600700中国彩票 销售额（亿元）yoy 22 41:42:2 2022 6.4/+7.6%5.4/+6.0%20-22 8.0%11-19 cagr=5.5%22 3 22 9204/-0.6%50-59 60%-80%4 43 44 8%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%01002003004005006002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-04福彩销售 额 体彩销售 额 福彩YOY 体彩YOY-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%01002003004005002022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-04乐透型销 售额 竞猜型销 售额 即开型销 售额乐透型YOY 竞猜型YOY 即开型YOY3794839606430824709051371544685.4%4.4%8.8%9.3%9.1%6.0%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022韩国乐透 彩票销 售额（亿韩元）yoy79.2%84.6%88.5%86.4%80.0%13.4%15.7%18.8%17.9%11.8%12.9%11.9%11.5%8.6%6.3%4.2%3.3%1.6%0.5%0.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1929 岁 3039 岁 4049 岁 5059 岁 60 岁及以 上乐透彩票 年金彩票 即时彩票 电子彩票 23 45 46 8%3 4 47 30 GDP 8030884691169676 963002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0001929 岁 3039 岁 4049 岁 5059 岁 60 岁及以 上单次 乐透 彩票 购 买平 均 金额（韩元）3.3%17.7%26.5%39.0%10.9%2.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%低收入（前20%）中低收入（20%-40%）中等收入（40%-60%）中高收入（60%-80%）高收入（80%-100%）其他占比 24 1 22 48.6%A 2022 27.83%2020 51%30%48 2020 2020 3.8%37.6%2022 6.85-1.73%49%50 131 148 138 79 60 50 58 750 697 685 12%-6%-43%-23%-17%16%5%-7%-2%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%-800-600-400-200020040060080010002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022彩票相关 收入（百万元）YOY 25 1 51%2 2022 12%43.5%3 2022 12.9%19.9%5 2022 2022 51%/3.9+1.3%-0.3%-2%30%40%2.1-7%12%19.9%100%0.9+3.7%12.9%43.5%2/2023Q1 55.71%2022/9100/5700-39.3%/+47.9%29%/18%+23%/1 2022 9 2 26 51%52 1 15-21 2 1 2 3 29%18%25%15%13%彩票硬件 提供彩票 分销及 配套服 务销售电子 支付产 品 商家收单 服务其他136 89 94 62 137 91 16 21 35 57-34%5%-34%123%-34%26%70%62%-50%0%50%100%150%0501001502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022彩票硬件 彩票分销 及配套 服务彩票硬件YOY 彩票分销 及配套 服务YOY 27 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%