20230625_银河证券_轻工制造行业证券研究报告：基本面底部向上把握龙头价值低估_20页.pdf

table_main()1 4 2 Q2 315 Q2 3&2023 6 21 10 PE 3.82%/PE 1.06%/4.98%1&Arauco 156 UPM 210&10%20%2 2023 10%010-80926000 chenbairu_ S0130521080001 2023-06-21 table_report i F i n D-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-05 300table_research 2023 6 25 /1.2.2 Q2.4.5.9&.9.14.16.17.18 ZXAZvMmRnOpOtNoNtOtMmNaQ9RbRsQnNnPpMeRrRoQlOpNyQaQmMzRvPoNrNuOrRpQ/2 2023 15 4.64 4.98-0.9%+8.4%30 40%+4 2023 6 20 30 72.92 37.95%1.2.30 iFinD iFinD 2022 7 2023 2023 15 2.78 19.6%5 0.41 24.38%3.4.iFinD iFinD-50%0%50%100%150%050,000100,000150,000200,0002020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-05:-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0102030405060708001-0101-0801-1501-2201-2902-0502-1202-1902-2603-0503-1203-1903-2604-0204-0904-1604-2304-3005-0705-1405-2105-2806-0406-1106-1830:30:050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%/3 5.6.iFinD iFinD&85%2020 43.7%78.32%5-15 2007 7.8.Wind-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0246810122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04:-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04 78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%010020030040050060070080020032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 /4 9.10.Wind 6 2 5 3 2;2 1;20%30%Q2 2023 15 18.76 9.3%5 3.78 12.7%8 2023 2023 15 537.5 4.5%5 115.4 5%11.3.iFinD iFinD 2022 6.76%36.34%41.98%14.92%5 5-10 10-15 15-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,0002020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04:-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04:/5 7.5%2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 1.YOY 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 8.00%-3.90%12.50%-0.20%5.80%5.10%-7.00%14.50%-7.50%4.60%17.59%8.91%38.68%9.97%-13.85%5.13%8.67%24.59%7.84%-9.70%21.75%29.65%34.17%4.58%6.20%24.90%24.20%30.61%3.06%1.08%9.26%-10.29%12.22%-27.30%-25.50%20.95%14.17%44.81%-1.81%-12.92%15.68%15.43%38.21%0.86%4.47%21.16%15.29%45.56%-10.31%-23.10%Wind 2023 2023&315 Q2 2.2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 13.58 18.44 18.68 7.82 17.02 9.43 10.07 10.46 7.02 9.98 4.08 4.30 4.39 4.36 3.59 3.03 4.05 3.43 3.27 2.81 7.56 8.43 8.08 6.22 7.07 13.92 15.43 13.58 15.31 14.20 2.49 1.87 2.52 3.69 2.28 2.16 1.86 1.69 1.17 1.67 Wind 80%50%+2022 23Q1 22Q4 /6 13.4.2022 20%3.2022 YOY YOY YOY 71.73-4.73%121.39+19.34%13.46+8.85%12.72-10.41%91.77+10.98%4.34-5.26%27.37-6.73%21.03+19.49%2.28+34.17%23.63-4.71%9.61+20.09%1.49+77.27%YOY YOY YOY 89.72-3.19%35.57+6.58%7.62+15.35%9.02-14.45%67.37 5.59%2022 18,498 28%&0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2022 2023Q1-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 /7 15.2.0 16.58.1%2021 20.9%17.18.1 2 3 4.&0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,0002019 2020H1 2020 2021H1 2021 2022H1 2022 YOY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020 20210%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019 2020 2021/8 2018 2022 25 37%2019 2020 2022 115.14%160 425 93 5.1 2 22H1 600 6 3 2022-2025 3,000 800-1000 2022 5,000 3,000 4 2022 25 37%2022 115.14%160 425 93 1 2022 2 2022 20%1 2021 11.09 53.69%2,703 35%2 2022 7.5 32.4%&2023 6 21 10 PE 3.82%/PE 1.06%/4.98%19.Wind 1 603833.SH 002572.SZ&0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0204060801001202013-062013-122014-062014-122015-062015-122016-062016-122017-062017-122018-062018-122019-062019-122020-062020-122021-062021-122022-062022-12 TTM/9 603801.SH 603180.SH 2 603816.SH 001323.SZ&60%2022 62.88%2022 3,628 1.74%2,281 3.77%1,364 13.43%20.21.2023 2023 5 186.57 1.8 2023 1 38.3 2023 5 110.7 6.4 73 9 2.87 0.8 60%61%62%63%64%65%66%67%68%69%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10%-5%0%5%10%15%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY YOY/10 22.Arauco 156 1 20 UPM 210 4 15 5 5 26 7 2023 6 21 5,432.14 4,188.64 3,966.67/28.73%38.87%29.59%2023 6 20 680 505/5 24 550/23./24./2022 1,698.5 2023 155 2022 770 2022 1,708 23 260 24 25 428 257.6 02040608010012014002004006008001,0001,2001,400 3,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0002020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04 02004006008001,0001,2002020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04 ARAUCO()ARAUCO()West Fraser /11 6./2023 60 23Q2 100 23Q1 100 23Q4 2024 100 24Q4 138 24Q4 100 24Q4 90 24Q4 2025 40 25Q1 100 25Q4 36 25Q4 81.6 25Q4 2026 71.4 26Q4 2027 100 27Q4 2029 45 29Q3 1162 5 63.97 115 2.61 5 56 5 97 5 83.85 173 0.15 4 25.26.02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-04 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-04 /12 27.&4 6 21 5,437.5 5,210/4 18.84%9.78%6 21 4,190/4.56%28./29./&23 4 5 2023 6 21 414.27 242.29-236.47/7.62%4.65%-5.64%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000 4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0002020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04 3,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,0002020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04 /13 30./31.2022 43%24%10%20%32.33.-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 /14 34.35.2020 3 6 21 1,562/3.58%6.5 36./37.2023 10%2022 4,323.8 2023 160 2024 95 2022 4,974.4 2023 562 11.3%2024 2025 55 30-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0501001502002503003504004502012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY YOY32%15%7%7%5%3%4%27%1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04 0246810121416182020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04 /15 38./39./2023 5 68.24 110.86+5.14-4.24 123.91 186.6+5.91-5.6 40.41.2023 6 21 2,766.25 3,878/24.15%19.68%05010015020025030005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000 010020030040050060001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000 02004006008001,0001,2001,4002018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-04 05001,0001,5002,0002,5002018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-04 /16 42./2023 6 20 229.17 834.31/8.24%21.43%43./44.002078.SZ 600963.SH 603733.SH 2,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-04 /17 1.2 2.30.2 3.2 4.2 5.3 6.3 7.3 8.3 9.4 10.4 11.4 12.4 13.6 14.6 15.2.0.7 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.8 20.9 21.9 22.10 23./.10 24./.10 25.11 26.11 27.12 28./.12 29./.12 30./.13 31.13 32.13 33.13 34.14 35.2020.14 36./.14 37.14 38./.15 39./.15 40.15 /18 41.15 42./.16 43./.16 44.16 1.5 2.5 3.2022.6 4.7 5.8 6.11 /19 Table_Resume 12 8 6-12 300 20%6-12 300 20%Table_Avow table_contact 3088 20 075583479312 suyiyun_ 075583471683 chengxi_ 99 31 02120252612 02160387901 luyunru_ 8 1 010-80927721 嫚 01080927722 tangmanling_