20230627_民生证券_通信行业专题证券报告：AI”涌现“时代流量”逆光“而行_32页.pdf

*01*2023 6 27/*1 AI 2 Intel 3 AI AI IT AI AI AI AI IB AI LPO CPO&/AI 10YFUwPrMmPrQrPoNqNtMpO8O8Q7NnPoOmOmPiNmMsMeRnPzR7NrRuMwMpMpQvPoMtM*C O N T E N T S 02 03AI 01042*13AI*44 Photonics21 3D 3C 3C 3D 3C 5G 3D 1*5 IMT-2020(5G)5G VSCEL DFB EML PIN APD/Driver CDR DSP TIA MCU PCB TEC 2*66/57 34 2*7 Lightcounting Lightcounting 2022/10 Lightcounting 2023/03 Lightcounting+13%13%AI/Meta/AI 3*AI 88 GPU GeForce CUDA Fermi Tesla Pascal GPU Turing GPU CPU Grace Hopper H100 Tegra 419992006200720092013201620182021202220231993-2000 2001-2006 2007-2023 DGX GH200 256 Grace Hopper 1-Exaflop 144TB GPU NVIDIA Grace Hopper GH200 NVIDIA Grace Hopper Ada Lovelace 400 NVIDIA MGX NVIDIA AI NVIDIA Spectrum-X NVIDIA Isaac AMR NVIDIA AI Avatar Cloud Engine Ampere A10020204*9 AI AI 1 AI/800G 2 AI IB IB 800G 3 AI A100/H100 GH200 NVLink Switch System 256 GPU 800G GH200 DGX GH200 NVLINK Switch System 256 GPU 4*10 Lightcounting CMOS Intel 2016 100G Cisco III-V CPO AI AI 1.5*11 MACOM AI 2.LPO 800G 800G LPO 49%18%18%10%5%DSPLaserDriverTIAOthers CPO 200G/400G/800G PAM4 DSP DSP CDR DSP LPO linear-drive pluggable optics TIA Driver LPO 5*12 Lightcounting AI 3.CPO 20222028 CPO CPO Co-packaged optics ASIC 1.6T CPO 100G 400G 400G 800G 1.6T CPO CPO LightCounting CPO 2023 5 2027 450 Meta Marvell IBM CPO CPO 5*213*1414 wind 96.4 33.1 12.0 13.0 69.1 37.9 2.8 8.2 6.4 14.7 7.1 9.3 9.0 3.4 23.2 020406080100120中际旭创新易盛天孚通信中瓷电子光迅科技剑桥科技源杰科技联特科技光库科技博创科技德科立太辰光仕佳光子腾景科技铭普光磁 202212.2 9.0 4.0 1.5 6.1 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.9 1.0 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 03691215中际旭创新易盛天孚通信中瓷电子光迅科技剑桥科技源杰科技联特科技光库科技博创科技德科立太辰光仕佳光子腾景科技铭普光磁 2022 2022 2022 33.2 22.6 17.1 01020304050Coherent(II-VI)Fabrinet Lumentum1.7 2.0 2.0 01234Coherent(II-VI)Fabrinet Lumentum 2023/06/24 2023/06/24 1,284 500 425 321 285 251 203 196 167 131 100 90 78 72 63 030060090012001500 65 45 38 020406080100Coherent-Fabrinet Lumentum1*15 Lightcounting 10G 40G 5 40G 100G 4 100G 400G 3 1 2 3 ASIC 1 3 2 2*1616&/2021 3.8 100%2020 38,400.45 83 67.19%GPON 10G PON 2022 Alpine Optoelectronics 35%2222 2017 PAM4 2019 550 Kaiam Corporation(Kaiam)PLC()2018 11,800 100%10GPON 2020 2748 MACOM 2019 4160 Lumentum Oclaro Oclaro Inc.2019 3000 Rockley Photonics 2.42%9.04%2017 25/100G 25/100G 2020 Colorchip 2020 9900()100%2018 AIDI AWG AWG Wafer 2016 TM LENS 2020 1700 Lumentum San Donato LiNbO3 2018 1.45 100%MPO 2018 3089 100%AWG 2019 3SP Technologies 3*1717 Lumentum2021 16.00 NeoPhotonics 9.18 NeoPhotonics 400ZR/ZR+DWDM 2018 Lumentum 18 Oclaro Oclaro Lumentum InP PIC II-VI Coherent 2022 II-VI Coherent Coherent Coherent 220 0.91 II-VI,70 2018 32 Finisar 2018 8500 WSS wavelength selective switch CoAdna MOLEX 2018 WSS wavelength selective switch Nistica Cisco2019 26 Acacia 2018 6.6 Luxtera&/3*18 wind/2021 26.99 175 920 2020 16.50 5G 100G 400G 285 2022 21.64 5G/F5G 610.00 13.35 70.00 2021 4.31 245 2022 10.86 110 100G 200G 400G 2021 7.77 5G 2020 7.55 8 2021 3.23 1800 240 2020 5.00 800 AWG 4,200 1,200 IPO/+2022 34.5 13.6 10.3 7.4 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.2 4.8 3.8 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.1 0510152025303540中际旭创光迅科技新易盛铭普光磁中瓷电子光库科技天孚通信剑桥科技源杰科技仕佳光子腾景科技联特科技太辰光博创科技德科立 4 100G*319*800G AI 20 Wind 2023 6 26 Lightcounting 2022 TOP10 100G/200G/400G/800G AI 800G AI Infiniband AI/800G 800G 800G AI 2023-2025 16.55/30.68/39.81 6 26 PE 72x/39x/30 x AI AI 1/2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 9,642 11,978 20,507 26,943%25.3 24.2 71.2 31.4 1,224 1,655 3,068 3,981%39.6 35.2 85.4 29.7 1.52 2.06 3.82 4.96 PE 97 72 39 30 PB 9.9 8.8 7.3 6.0*800G 21 Wind 2023 6 26 800G 800G 800G LPO linear-drive pluggable optics LPO DSP 800G EML LPO 800G LPO 1 2022 Alpine 2 22 400G ZR/ZR+2023-2025 8.20/12.00/15.50 6 26 PE 56x/38x/29x&AI 800G AI 2/2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 3,311 3,589 5,060 6,578%13.8 8.4 41.0 30.0 904 820 1,200 1,550%36.5-9.2 46.3 29.2 1.27 1.16 1.69 2.18 PE 51 56 38 29 PB 9.4 8.2 6.8 5.6*&22 Wind 2023 6 26 6 100G 200G 400G 800G 2023 6 14%2018 1 IDM DFB EML 2021 2021 5+&AI 2023-2025 12.92/17.18/21.77 6 26 PE 27x/21x/16x AI 3/2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 12,011 15,345 20,233 25,475%18.1 27.8 31.9 25.9 906 1,292 1,718 2,177%19.1 42.6 33.0 26.7 0.90 1.29 1.71 2.17 PE 39 27 21 16 PB 4.3 3.8 3.2 2.7*AOC 23 Wind 2023 6 26 10G PON AOC DAC 400G 25G 400G-DR4 800G CPO 2022 1.3%AOC AOC AI 2023-2025 2.51/3.19/3.91 6 26 PE 38x/30 x/25x AI 4/2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,467 1,989 2,590 3,201%27.1 35.6 30.3 23.6 194 251 319 391%19.6 29.1 27.1 22.7 0.74 0.95 1.21 1.48 PE 49 38 30 25 PB 5.7 5.1 4.5 4.0*AI 800G 24 Wind 2023 6 26 AI 800G 800G AI 800G 5G 2023-2025 5.16/6.64/8.29 6 26 PE 78x/61x/49x 800G AI 5/2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,196 1,634 2,211 2,850%15.9 36.6 35.3 28.9 403 516 664 829%31.5 28.1 28.7 24.8 1.02 1.31 1.68 2.10 PE 100 78 61 49 PB 15.3 13.7 12.0 10.4*MPO/AOC/25 Wind 2023 6 26 AI 800G MPO MPO MPO MPO MPO 400G 800G MPO 23-25 2.20/2.70/3.48 6 26 PE 59x/48x/38x AI AI 6/2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 934 1,246 1,580 1,983%44.4 33.4 26.8 25.5 180 220 270 348%150.9 22.0 23.1 28.6 0.78 0.95 1.18 1.51 PE 73 59 48 38 PB 10.0 9.2 8.5 7.6*AI 26 Wind 2023 6 26 AI IDC 2022 1,516 12%1216 2026 1,885 5 CAGR 6.8%1,665 5 CAGR 10.2%AI&GPU 2022 2,124 19.6%5 2022 40%CloudGaming AI HPC 2022 20%AI 2023 AI 2023-2025 222.18/248.20/271.20 6 26 PE 21x/18x/17x AI 7/2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 511,850 595,188 683,674 770,832%16.4 16.3 14.9 12.7 20,073 22,218 24,820 27,120%0.3 10.7 11.7 9.3 1.01 1.12 1.25 1.37 PE 23 21 18 17 PB 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8*27 22 18 30%400G 200G 100G 40G 25G 23-25 4.06/5.50/7.35 6 26 PE 23x/17x/13x AI Wind 2023 6 26 8/2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 10,974 12,317 14,445 16,818%1.5 12.2 17.3 16.4 227 406 550 735%-42.7 78.9 35.6 33.7 0.29 0.51 0.69 0.93 PE 41 23 17 13 PB 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5*428*29 AI AI 1*THANKS 8 1 5F 200120 28 A 19 100005 6001 32 05 518026 30 S0100522090004 13917829974 S0100521100003 15600604845 S0100523050001 18721775177 S0100122060027 19921166615*12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%5%5%5%-5%5%5%*31