20230620_招商证券_建材行业定期报告：竣工彰显韧性继续关注地产后周期品类_21页.pdf

|2023 06 20/C 1 2023 1-5/+9.5%/+7.5%5+8.8%/+4.9%2 2023 1-5-7.2%5-21.5%1-5/-0.9%/+8.4%5-19.8%/-4.8%1-5/-23.1%/-6.2%/+19.6%5-28.5%/-36.4%/+24.5%3 2023 1-5 583.0-6.6%5 121.0-14.6%2023 1-5 7.71 1.9%5 1.96 0.4%6/12-6/16 1.5%10-15/30-50/4 3-7 2020/21/-2.79%5479.6 38.5-0.70%-30.50%23.5 0.2 90%1 2 PCB 5/0.1%/0.2%/MLF 10 LPR 2C 2G 2B%107 2.1 10167 1.2 8439 1.2%1m 6m 12m 0.9-4.5-7.6 1.3-4.7-0.9 1 2023-06-11 2 2023-06-04 3 2023 2023-05-29 S1090517070008-25-20-15-10-50510Jun/22 Oct/22 Feb/23 May/23(%)建材 沪深300 2.4 1.4 2.4 3.5.6 1.6 2.7 1.7 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.11 6.13 7.15.16 1.16 2.17.19 1 2022 0.1/1.60.19 2 1125 1.00%.19 3 2022 0.51/10.68.20 4 2023 6 15 18.98.20 5 20 1-1.5.20 1 P.O42.5/.10 2/.10 3 P.O42.5/.10 1ZCXwPqNsRmNoQnOmRsNmN8OcMbRnPqQsQmPiNqQsMfQpNmN8OqQzRNZmQzRwMtPsO 3 4 P.O42.5/.10 5 P.O42.5/.11 6 P.O42.5/.11 7 P.O42.5/.11 8 P.O42.5/.11 9%.11 10/.12 11/.12 12/.13 13/.13 14.13 15/.14 16/.14 17/.14 18.14 19.15 20 PVC PPR HDPE/.15 21/.15 22/.15 23 LNG/.15 24/.16 25/.16 26.16 27.17 28.17 29 PE 2023.17 30 PE 2023.17 1.8 2.17 4 C 1 2023 1-5/+9.5%/+7.5%5+8.8%/+4.9%2 2023 1-5-7.2%5-21.5%1-5/-0.9%/+8.4%5-19.8%/-4.8%1-5/-23.1%/-6.2%/+19.6%5-28.5%/-36.4%/+24.5%3 2023 1-5 583.0-6.6%5 121.0-14.6%1 2023 1-5 7.71 1.9%5 1.96 0.4%1.5%10-15/30-50/4 3-7 20230615 2006/6 8 26/-1%2020/21/-2.79%5479.6 38.5-0.70%-30.50%23.5 0.2 90%1 2 PCB 2 5/0.1%/0.2%/MLF 10 LPR 2C 2G 2B 5 3+C+2023-2024 EPS 0.93 1.05 PE 23.09 20.45 2023-2024 EPS 0.76 0.92 PE 24.07 19.88+C 2023-2024 EPS 1.36 1.81 PE 11.78 8.85 BIPV+/2023-2024 EPS 0.55 0.77 PE 18.38 13.13 B B+2023-2024 EPS 0.58 0.71 PE 15.97 13.04+2023-2024 EPS 2.16 2.49 PE 11.73 10.18+2000 2023-2024 EPS 1.59 2.07 PE 18.92 14.54+6 2023-2024 EPS 1.38 1.53 PE 8.07 7.27 1+N+2023-2024 EPS 0.60 0.80 PE 13.78 10.34 85%23 2023-2024 EPS 1.50 1.77 PE 9.73 8.25 1 1 6 5 15 1 0.01%9 0.2%6 6 6 6 2 6 12 2023 73 90%20 2000 30%20 20 1 3 6 14 2023 6500 4 6 13 5 1.36 5418 5 361.42 9.5%5 1.56 3312 1.31 5 5 7 2 1 1 2023 1 5 45701 7.2%779506 6.2%548475 6.5%39723 22.6%27826 19.6%46440 0.9%2.3%49787 8.4%11.9%55958 6.6%7175 10.5%13 73.5%16267 21.6%19878 4.4%10354 6.5%5 94.56 2 2023 5 70 5 0.1%0.3 0.2%0.2 0.2%3 6 15 2 1 2023 1 5 188815 4.0%101915 0.1%5 0.11%7.5%16.4%11.5%4.4%3.9%3 1 2023 5 37803 12.7%121-14.6%1 5 56906 13.8%583-6.6%2 2025 50%2028 80%3 31 31 46 2023 7 1 00:00 2023 8 31 24:00 30()4 1.5%10-15/30-50/8 4 3-7 1 5-10/6-7 3-5 3-5 6 3 6 17 15 20/5 30-50/3-4 3-5 4-5 30/10%6 7 7 10%10/20/5 7-8 10-20/7-8 20-25/7-8 70%20-35/4-5 15/260-270/10-20/6 20-30/6 60%-70%5-10/4-6 10/4-5 10-20/5 9 7 5-6 5-6 30/6-8 15/5-6 5-6 20-30/40-60/5-6 5-6 10/6 10-20/5-6 70%10/5-7 50-60/3-4 20-30/10-15/4-6 6 70%40-50/5 30/20/20/4-5 5-6 7-8 3-4 60%-70%6-7 3-4 7 20/6-7 50/10 P.O42.5 Q5500 715/316.16/7.26/100kg 1 P.O42.5/2/wind P.O42.5 3 P.O42.5/4 P.O42.5/200300400500600第1周第3 周第5周第7周第9周第11周第13周第15周第17周第19周第21周第23周第25周第27周第29周第31周第33周第35周第37周第39周第41周第43周第45周第47周第49周第51周2014 年 2015年 2016年 2017年2018 年 2019年 2020年 2021年2022 年 2023年02004006008001000120014001600150200250300350400450500550202020202020202020202020202020202020202020202020202020202020水泥煤炭 价格差 动力煤价 格（右 轴）1502002503003504004505005506002009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/131502503504505506507502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/13 7-8 30 50%10%-20%6-7 70%-80%3-4 3-5 4 50%60 70%11 5 P.O42.5/6 P.O42.5/7 P.O42.5/8 P.O42.5/76.00%1.9pct 10 5 50%9%5 20230615 2006/6 8 26/-1%2020/21/-2.79%1502503504505506507502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/131502503504505506507502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/131502002503003504004505005506006502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/131502002503003504004505005506002009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/1301020304050607080902016/3/312016/6/302016/9/302016/12/312017/3/312017/6/302017/9/302017/12/312018/3/312018/6/302018/9/302018/12/312019/3/312019/6/302019/9/302019/12/312020/3/312020/6/302020/9/302020/12/312021/3/312021/6/302021/9/302021/12/312022/3/312022/6/302022/9/302022/12/312023/3/31 12 3 102/10/11/2021 2022 90.62%1.02%60.55 0.3 0.50%42.65 4.36 9.27%15-16 92%62 7-8 900/2400/140015001600170018001900200021008月12 日8月26 日9 月9 日9月23 日10 月7日10月21日11 月4日11月18日12 月2日12月16日12月30日1 月13 日1月27 日2月10 日2月24 日3月10 日3月24 日4 月7 日华北 华东 华中华南 东北 西南西北 全国100015002000250030003500第1周第3周第5周第7周第9周第11 周第13 周第15 周第17 周第19 周第21 周第23 周第25 周第27 周第29 周第31 周第33 周第35 周第37 周第39 周第41 周第43 周第45 周第47 周2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020 2021 2022 2023 13 12/13/Wind 20230615 5479.6 38.5-0.70%-30.50%23.5 0.2 90%14 6 2400tex 3800-4000/2400texSMC 4100-4800/2400tex 6300-6700/2400tex 4200-4500/2400tex 4200-4500/2000tex 4600-5600/050010001500200025003000350040002010/092011/032011/092012/032012/092013/032013/092014/032014/092015/032015/092016/032016/092017/032017/092018/032018/092019/032019/092020/032020/092021/032021/092022/032022/092023/03全国平均-400-200020040060080010001200140016002018/052018/072018/092018/112019/012019/032019/052019/072019/092019/112020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/0301000200030004000500060007000800090002009/042009/102010/042010/102011/042011/102012/042012/102013/042013/102014/042014/102015/042015/102016/042016/102017/042017/102018/042018/102019/042019/102020/042020/102021/042021/102022/042022/102023/04 14 PCB 7400-8000/3.4-3.5/PCB 15/16/17/18 3,5004,5005,5006,5007,5008,5009,5001月 2 月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7 月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 2022 20233,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5001 月 2月 3 月 4月 5 月 6月 7 月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 2022 20233,5005,5007,5009,50011,50013,50015,5001 月 2 月 3 月 4月 5月 6 月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11 月 12 月2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 2022 202301020304050607080902017/112018/012018/032018/052018/072018/092018/112019/012019/032019/052019/072019/092019/112020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/03库存（万 吨）15 6 15 103 692/6.71%7/1.00%19 7 20 PVC PPR HDPE/21/Wind Wind 22/23 LNG/0204060801001 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12 月2018 年 2019 年 2020 年2021 年 2022 年 2023 年020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002015/032015/062015/092015/122016/032016/062016/092016/122017/032017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/03PVC PPR HDPE05001000150020002500300035002023/2/312022/10/312022/6/302022/2/282021/10/312021/6/302021/2/282020/10/312020/6/302020/2/292019/10/312019/6/302019/2/282018/10/312018/6/302018/2/282017/10/312017/6/302017/2/282016/10/312016/5/312016/1/312015/8/312015/1/31国废均价010002000300040005000600070002014/052014/102015/032015/082016/012016/062016/112017/042017/092018/022018/072018/122019/052019/102020/032020/082021/012021/062021/112022/042022/092023/02全国均价 重交沥青建筑沥青 改性沥青01000200030004000500060007000800090002014/052014/102015/032015/082016/012016/062016/112017/042017/092018/022018/072018/122019/052019/102020/032020/082021/012021/062021/112022/042022/092023/02LNG 价格 16 Wind Wind 24/25/Wind Wind 1 1.30%5.93%2.66%4.80%4.79%2.59%2.01%1.74%1.13%-1.10%26 iFinD 2021 05000100001500020000250002018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/0405000100001500020000250003000035000400002012/042012/102013/042013/102014/042014/102015/042015/102016/042016/102017/042017/102018/042018/102019/042019/102020/042020/102021/042021/102022/042022/102023/047%7%7%6%6%6%5%5%4%4%3%3%2%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%0%0%-2%-3%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%食品饮料通信机械设备计算机电气设备汽车家用电器传媒电子商业贸易休闲服务建筑材料轻工制造国防军工化工农林牧渔有色金属综合纺织服装钢铁非银金融医药生物交通运输建筑装饰房地产采掘银行公用事业 17 27 28 iFinD iFinD 2021 2023 11 A 34.97 20.03 17.85 15.19 15.04 12.34 10.95 9.63 8.60 29 PE 2023 30 PE 2023 iFinD 2021 iFinD 2021 2 20.49%20.09%19.68%12.05%8.51%ST-6.67%-6.29%-4.81%-4.63%-4.56%2 1 20.49%24.07%21.40%2 20.09%18.77%18.74%3 19.68%18.26%16.25%4 12.05%11.07%15.72%5 8.51%10.98%15.26%6 7.65%9.40%13.39%7 7.40%4.61%11.53%8 6.36%3.94%10.44%9 6.34%3.54%10.42%10 6.23%3.31%7.83%1.30%4.75%4.95%5.93%2.66%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%上证综指 深证成指 中小板指 创业板指 建材行业-1.10%1.13%1.74%2.01%2.59%4.79%4.80%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%水泥制品水泥制造其他建材耐火材料管材玻纤制造玻璃制造49 43 36 33 31 31 28 27 24 20 20 19 18 17 17 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 4 0102030405060综合计算机国防军工社会服务美容护理电子传媒食品饮料医药生物机械设备商贸零售汽车农林牧渔电力设备轻工制造通信纺织服饰公用事业环保家用电器交通运输基础化工非银金融有色金属钢铁建筑材料房地产石油石化建筑装饰煤炭银行34.97 20.03 17.85 15.19 15.04 12.34 10.95 9.63 8.60 0510152025303540涂料防水材料管材其他建材耐火材料水泥制品玻纤制造玻璃制造水泥制造 18 11 5.81%21.40%6.80%12 ST 5.57%18.74%6.38%13 5.54%16.25%6.26%14 5.35%15.72%5.86%15 5.28%15.26%5.66%16 4.81%13.39%5.52%17 4.81%11.53%5.35%18 4.79%10.44%5.22%19 4.76%10.42%4.95%20 4.65%7.83%4.89%21 4.36%6.80%4.41%22 4.33%6.38%4.36%23 4.20%6.26%4.27%24 4.00%5.86%4.16%25 3.81%5.66%4.01%26 3.75%5.52%3.75%27 3.68%5.35%3.66%28 3.58%5.22%3.61%29 3.34%4.95%3.41%30 3.34%4.89%3.20%31 3.16%4.41%2.95%32 3.10%4.36%2.75%33 3.09%4.27%2.42%34 3.04%4.16%2.40%35 2.65%4.01%2.28%36 2.38%3.75%1.89%37 2.08%3.66%1.85%38 2.07%3.61%1.68%39 2.04%3.41%1.40%40 2.04%3.20%1.16%41 1.97%2.95%0.69%42 1.85%2.75%0.60%43 1.79%2.42%0.49%44 1.75%2.40%0.35%45 A 1.66%2.28%0.35%46 1.64%1.89%0.33%47 1.62%1.85%-0.13%48 1.61%1.68%-0.13%49 1.60%1.40%-0.16%50 1.35%1.16%-0.44%51 1.35%0.69%-1.17%52 1.31%0.60%-1.46%53 1.30%0.49%-1.52%54 1.25%0.35%-1.73%55 1.13%0.35%-1.99%56 0.97%0.33%-2.06%57 0.91%-0.13%-2.10%58 0.82%-0.13%-2.17%59 0.72%-0.16%-2.32%60 0.69%-0.44%-2.33%61 0.66%-1.17%-2.39%62 0.64%-1.46%-2.47%63 0.64%-1.52%-2.64%19 64 ST 0.63%-1.73%-3.26%65 0.56%-1.99%-3.36%66 0.54%-2.06%-3.37%67 0.27%-2.10%-3.39%68 0.26%-2.17%-3.60%69 0.20%-2.32%-3.69%70 0.00%-2.33%-3.86%71-0.09%-2.39%-4.07%72-0.27%-2.47%-4.12%73-0.27%-2.64%-4.20%74-0.31%-3.26%ST-4.20%75-0.38%-3.36%-4.23%76-0.59%-3.37%-4.24%77-0.80%-3.39%-4.38%78-0.81%-3.60%-4.41%79-0.88%-3.69%-4.49%80-0.89%-3.86%-4.54%81-0.92%-4.07%-4.73%82-0.93%-4.12%-4.80%83-1.01%-4.20%-4.85%84-1.02%ST-4.20%-4.89%85-1.11%-4.23%-5.32%86-1.24%-4.24%A-5.56%87-1.43%-4.38%-5.62%88-1.48%-4.41%-5.83%89-2.17%-4.49%-6.25%90-2.75%-4.54%-6.42%91-2.89%-4.73%-6.69%92-3.42%-4.80%-6.81%93-3.64%-4.85%ST-8.33%94-4.56%-4.89%-8.69%95-4.63%-5.32%-8.73%96-4.81%A-5.56%ST-14.38%97-6.29%-5.62%-16.02%98 ST-6.67%-5.83%-17.27%Wind 1 2022 0.1/1.60 1.60 0.10 1.60 27.29%2.06%2 1125 1.00%1125 1.00%1529.68 20 3 2022 0.51/10.68 2022 20.97 164.99 20.95 0.51/10.68 29.31%3.88%4 2023 6 15 18.98 2023 6 15 2022 2021 18.98 5 20 1-1.5 1 1.5 2%19.9 21 2017 1 2019 2019 2020 2021 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%