20230618_安信证券_电力及公用事业行业证券研究报告：工商业储能多要素催化商业模式改善需求有望迎来高增_25页.pdf

1 2023 06 18-A Wind%1M 3M 12M-3.3-0.5 8.0-3.7 0.2 1.3 SAC S1450521060003 2023-06-11“”2023-06-11“”2023-06-04 2023-05-28 2023-05-21 2022 7.6 30%1.2 14%1+2 3 1 2021 7 2 2022 1 3-19%-9%1%11%21%31%2022-06 2022-10 2023-02 2023-06 300 999732388/2 1.4 1.1.4 1.2.6 2.7 2.1.7 2.2.8 2.3.9 3.9 3.1.+.9 3.1.1.9 3.1.2.10 3.2.12 3.3.15 4.15 5.17 5.1.17 5.2.19 5.3.19 5.4.20 5.5.21 5.6.22 6.23 1.2022.4 2.2022.4 3.4 4.4 5.5 6.5 7.6 8.6 9.7 10.8 11.8 12.9 13.2023 6 10kv.11 14.IRR.11 15.IRR.11 16.16 17.16 18.17 19.18 XVBYxOsPtQnMoQmPmRsNpObR8Q6MsQoOnPmPkPqQsMkPpOyR7NoOzQNZoOpQuOoNxP/3 20.18 21.19 22.19 23.19 24.20 25.20 26.21 27.21 28.22 29.22 1.7 2.9 3 2023 6 35kv.10 4 2023 6 35kv.12 5.12 6.15 /4 1.1.1.2022 7.6 30%1.2 14%1.2 022 2.2 022 3.4.52%16%2%14%16%66%15%5%9%5%/5 5.6.3MWh PCS PCS BMS 100-300kwh /6 7.24 1.2.+BMS PCS EMS 1 2 BMS 3 PCS 4 EMS 8./7 9.2.1+2 3 2.1.2023 5 9 100 100 315 315 1=(+)=(+)+()()/8 10.2 11.2.2./9/2.3.12.3.3.1.+3.1.1.2021 7 2021 7 26 20%2021 10 31 2021 12 1 1.5 2 40%4:1 3:1 20%/10 2023 5 2023 6 1-0.00810.0953/kWh+5 22 3 2023 6 35kv 2023 5(/kWh)2023 6(/kWh)/k wh 0.1 8 3 7 0.1 6 6 0 0.0 1 9 0 0.0 1 4 0 0.0 1 5 3 0.1 8 9 9 0.1 4 5 6 0.0 1 6 5 0.0 4 0 7 0.0 1 2 9 0.1 6 1 0 0.1 3 4 1 0.0 1 3 2 0.0 0 3 3-0.0 1 0 4 0.0 8 3 6 0.0 7 4 0 0.0 2 4 3 0.0 1 3 1 0.0 5 7 9 0.0 8 5 7 0.1 5 4 4 0.1 3 3 3 0.0 1 8 3 0.0 0 3 2 0.0 0 0 4 0.1 1 3 7 0.1 1 3 2 0.0 1 3 3 0.0 1 7 9 0.0 3 0 7 0.1 5 8 5 0.1 3 5 5 0.0 2 3 3 0.0 0 4 7 0.0 0 8 4 0.0 1 3 5 0.1 2 5 6 0.1 0 6 5 0.0 2 1 9-0.0 0 8 2-0.0 0 5 5 0.2 1 6 5 0.0 0 0 0 0.0 2 1 6 0.0 0 2 6-0.1 9 2 3 0.2 7 3 4 0.1 0 9 2-0.1 6 4 2 0.1 5 5 5 0.1 2 7 1 0.0 1 9 8 0.0 0 0 0-0.0 0 6 3-0.0 1 4 9 0.1 8 9 2 0.1 4 5 6 0.0 1 9 8 0.0 0 0 0-0.0 2 3 8 0.1 4 7 2 0.0 9 5 5 0.0 2 0 4 0.0 0 7 8-0.0 2 3 5 0.1 5 1 4 0.1 1 0 7 0.0 1 4 9 0.0 2 9 1 0.0 0 3 3 0.2 9 4 3 0.1 5 4 7 0.0 1 9 4 0.0 5 7 9-0.0 6 2 3 0.1 3 2 3 0.1 0 9 2 0.0 1 7 1-0.0 0 8 8-0.0 1 4 8 0.1 5 1 3 0.1 1 7 5 0.0 1 9 2 0.0 0 5 7-0.0 0 8 9 0.1 4 6 8 0.1 1 4 4 0.0 2 6 6 0.0 1 4 8 0.0 0 9 0 0.1 3 8 5 0.1 1 9 7 0.0 2 8 5 0.0 0 9 2 0.0 1 8 9 0.1 0 7 2 0.0 8 3 8 0.0 2 0 4 0.0 0 9 1 0.0 0 6 1 0.1 6 6 4 0.1 4 1 3 0.0 2 1 1 0.0 2 1 4 0.0 1 7 4 0.1 2 2 3 0.1 1 0 0 0.0 1 6 9 0.0 0 3 4 0.0 0 8 0 0.0 9 5 8 0.0 7 6 9 0.0 0 8 0 0.0 0 0 0-0.0 1 0 9 0.0 8 3 8 0.0 8 8 8-0.0 0 8 1-0.0 0 3 1 0.0 7 5 9 0.0 7 7 9 0.0 0 9 5-0.0 0 7 3 0.0 0 4 2 0.0 8 5 4 0.1 0 3 1 0.0 1 8 8-0.0 0 7 5 0.0 2 9 0 0.0 5 8 1 0.0 8 3 8 0.0 1 8 8-0.0 0 7 5 0.0 3 7 0()0.1 1 2 1 0.1 0 0 9 0.0 1 5 5 0.0 0 6 5 0.0 1 0 8()0.0 8 2 7 0.0 7 4 5 0.0 1 5 5 0.0 0 6 5 0.0 1 3 8()0.1 1 2 1 0.0 9 7 1 0.0 1 5 5 0.0 0 6 5 0.0 0 7 0()0.0 2 4 4 0.0 1 5 4 0.0 1 5 5 0.0 0 6 5 0.0 1 3 0()-0.0 2 6 6-0.0 3 3 5 0.0 1 5 5 0.0 0 6 5 0.0 1 5 1 0.0 0 0 0 0.1 0 5 4 0.0 1 6 2 0.1 2 1 6 0.1 2 2 9 0.1 0 4 5 0.0 1 0 2-0.0 0 8 2 0.1 2 7 1 0.1 3 3 2 0.0 8 1 5 0.0 2 9 8 0.0 3 2 9 0.0 1 1 0 3.1.2.30%100kw/215kwh 37 2 2 330 10 2023 6 10kv 0.4568/kWh 1.7108/kWh 9:00-11:00 15:00-17:00 8:00-9:00 13:00-15:00 17:00-22:00 11:00-13:00 /11 22:00-8:00 2 2 29.1%3 1.55/wh IRR 33.3%13.2 023 6 10 kv 14.I RR 0.46/kwh 1.16/kwh 0.7/kwh IRR 8.7%0.6/kwh IRR 4.3%IRR 0.7/kwh 15.I RR 6 15 0.7/kWh 0.7/kWh 22 6 5 60.82%23 5 7 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.80 4 8 12 16 20 240%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%1.46 1.55 1.63 1.72 1.81 1.89 1.98IRR/wh-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4IRR/kwh /12 4 2023 6 35kv 2022 6 2023 5 2023 6 0.3 9 3 4 0.6 6 3 6 0.6 3 2 7 60.82%-7.87%0.4 8 9 0 0.6 5 9 3 0.5 8 3 0 19.21%-15.61%()0.5 2 0 6 0.6 1 1 4 0.6 1 8 4 18.79%1.34%()0.5 5 5 0 0.6 4 5 9 0.6 4 2 8 15.81%-0.55%0.2 7 9 5 0.3 5 1 7 0.3 1 7 5 13.62%-12.22%0.7 0 7 3 0.9 2 1 3 0.7 7 8 6 10.08%-20.18%()0.6 5 0 9 0.7 6 8 6 0.7 1 1 0 9.23%-8.85%()0.7 1 8 2 0.8 0 2 9 0.7 7 5 6 7.99%-3.80%0.5 6 8 4 0.6 1 1 9 0.6 1 1 9 7.67%0.00%()0.7 9 5 2 0.8 7 9 9 0.8 5 3 7 7.36%-3.29%()0.8 3 4 0 0.9 1 8 7 0.8 8 8 5 6.53%-3.62%0.7 7 8 1 0.8 3 2 4 0.8 2 5 4 6.07%-0.90%0.6 9 4 6 0.8 1 7 8 0.7 3 6 6 6.06%-11.68%()0.8 3 4 0 0.9 1 8 7 0.8 8 3 5 5.94%-4.22%0.4 0 8 1 0.4 0 5 4 0.4 2 3 8 3.85%4.51%0.3 0 2 5 0.3 8 1 7 0.3 1 3 5 3.64%-22.54%0.6 7 6 3 0.7 3 3 8 0.7 0 0 4 3.55%-4.94%0.5 8 0 8 0.5 8 5 1 0.5 9 5 9 2.59%1.86%0.5 4 4 6 0.5 4 2 5 0.5 4 4 4-0.03%0.35%0.7 1 0 9 0.7 0 2 8 0.7 0 8 3-0.37%0.78%0.5 7 2 1 0.5 7 5 5 0.5 6 1 7 1.81%-2.41%0.9 3 1 1 0.9 3 3 9 0.9 0 9 4-2.33%-2.63%0.8 3 3 0 0.8 4 8 9 0.8 0 9 1-2.87%-4.78%0.6 4 0 5 0.6 3 7 6 0.6 0 6 9-5.25%-4.79%0.7 9 5 1 0.7 9 5 1 0.7 5 1 3-5.51%-5.51%1.0 9 8 6 1.0 9 7 7 1.0 1 7 4-7.39%-7.31%0.8 2 2 4 0.8 4 3 5 0.7 5 6 5-8.01%-10.58%0.6 1 5 4 0.4 5 6 5 0.5 3 8 9-12.44%13.38%0.5 0 4 6 0.5 0 4 1 0.4 1 6 3-17.51%-17.41%0.5 7 0 4 0.4 3 8 2 0.4 3 8 9-23.06%0.12%0.6 5 5 3 0.6 4 7 2 0.4 9 2 8-24.80%-23.55%0.3 9 2 7 0.2 9 2 8 0.2 9 2 4-25.54%-0.10%0.4 8 4 3 0.5 0 0 9 0.3 4 2 3-29.32%-32.74%0.2 4 4 8 0.1 3 9 7 0.1 5 2 2-37.81%5.12%3.2.2013 2015 2017 9 2022 1 30 5 2023 5 31 2023 4/kWh:4/kWh;1/kW 0.25/kW 0 4/kWh;4/kW 1/kW /13 0 4/kWh;0.5/kW 0.1/kW 0 2023 5 19(1.5/kWh)2023 4 27 2023 2.5/kWh 3 3 0-5/kWh 0-1/kWh 2023 4 21()80%90%,0.8;90%120%,1 120%80%,80%0.5 2023 4 19 0-3/kWh 2023 4 18(2023-2025)=x x x x 4/kWh 2023 4 6 8/kW 4 1.3 2 2 3 2023 4 7()/kWh Pi 2023 1 11 2023 1/kWh 2023 10 27 2022()4/kWh(500 2022 10 24()2h,10/kW 2h 4h,15/kW 5/kW 8/kW 2022 6 14 2/kWh 0.35/kWh 2022 6 7 2022 2/kW 3/kW 4/kW 2022 5 24 2022 120 5/kW 120 10/kW 120 20/kW 120 30/kW 2022 5 24()=/(*)=*/14 50%,0 50%-80%,0.6 80%,1 2022 4 30 2022()10/kW/15/kW/1/kW/2022 4 16()3500/MWh 0.3MW 5000/MWh 0.3MW 2022 4 7(),80%,80%-120%120%,120%-150%0.5 50%2022 1 19()8/kW 12/kW 3/kW 1/kW 0.5/kW 2/kW 1/kW.2021 12 30()2.5/kWh 2021 7 5 2021 5/kW 2/kW,3/kW 2021 6 18()2 4h,20/kW 2 2h,15/kW 2h,5/kW 2h,8/kW/1h,25/kW 1h,35/kW 2018 6 15()1h,10/kW 1h 2h,15/kW 5/kW 8/kW 2023 6 9 2023-2025 200 200 1000 UPS EPS /15 3.3.“”10“”6 2022 1 2022 2022 2 2022 3 2025 3%2022 3()0.3MW,2 10MW,(*2%)/1 2 2022 4 2022 5()2022 6 2022 5 V2G+2022 6 2022 6 2022 2022 6(2022 2025)2022 6 2022 7+4./16 PCS BMS EMS 16.17.PCS BMS EMS /17 18.kW kWh Ocube 50-184 100-368 LABEL 100 200 OSN-P120B274-U-R1M01 120 240 CUBE 100-186 232-372 SMART-ONE 75-100 159-221 PCS8812PB 93-186 372 LUNA2000 100 194 60 126 30-250 90-645 100-186 232-372 eBlock 100-186 200-372 250P 250 639-1278 36-72 131-215 Tensorpack 100 200 100 215 30-150 100-200 Enerone 186 372 Edge 116-553 233-553 100 2 0 0 60-100 200-206 186 373 SINY-BANK 105 200 Scopio 30-500 100-1500 PowerStack/50-250 100-1070 50-100 100-200 CPS ES 105 239 ARZ-ESS-100KW/233KWh-OUT 100 233 5.5.1.HVLS HVLS 2022 3.04 11.43%/18 19.500 500MW+17 ARZ-ESS-100KW/233kWh 10 20.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%00.511.522.533.542020 2021 2022HVLS PCBA /19 21.22.5.2.+EPC+2022 6.46 48.59%23.2022 2022 726MW 5.3.-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%012345672018 2019 2020 2021 2022 /20 2022 15.0 47.16%2.2 97.0%24.2022 2.56 43.8%2012 5.4.2022 28.88 10.29%25.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022电能质量设备 新能源电能变换设备电动汽车充电桩 电池化成与检测设备其他 增速0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%051015202530352019 2020 2021 2022 /21 2022 2022 12 31 1703.34MW 2022 16.57 127.08MW 2022 7.19 26.5.5.27.2023 6 2023 18%2023 3 020406080100120140160180200总装机容量（万千瓦）新投产机组的装机容量（万千瓦）2022年 2021年-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0102030405060702015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 /22 500MW/1GWh 400 1.25MW/2.5MWh 220KV 100MW/200MWh 10MW 2MW 5.6.EPC 2022 23.57 27.01%28.EPCO EPCO EPCO 1 5 6 7 29.0%10%20%30%40%05101520252020 2021 2022 /23 6.1 2 3 /24 6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%A 6 300 B 6 300 /25 19 33 518026 638 3 200080 2 15 100034