20230615_国信证券_医药生物行业骨科器械财报总结及行业专题：行而不辍未来可期_52页.pdf

|2023 06 15,S0980523050001 021-S0980519010002 0755-S0980522080001 2023 2022 2019 2020 2022 2023 550 3D/2022 1 2 3 21ZBYvMmRpMrQqOnOqNqPqR7NdN6MmOrRoMmPfQrRsMjMrQpR6MqQvNwMqMsQxNtQrQ 2022 2023 01 2022 2023 02 03 04 AH 2017-2023Q1 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q1 24.8 35.4 52.8 61.2 70.6 66.7 13.0 YOY 42.8%49.4%15.8%15.3%-5.5%3.5%6.0 8.4 10.9 12.2 13.6 16.5 3.4 75.6%76.1%79.3%80.1%80.7%75.2%73.7%6.0 9.8 16.6 17.6 22.9 22.1 4.5 24.1%27.7%31.4%28.7%32.4%33.1%34.7%2.8 2.6 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.7 0.7 11.2%7.4%5.7%5.7%5.7%7.1%5.7%1.2 2.3 3.6 4.5 6.1 7.7 1.5 5.0%6.6%6.9%7.4%8.7%11.6%11.4%0.0-0.3-0.5-0.4-0.6-1.2-0.2-0.1%-0.9%-1.0%-0.6%-0.8%-1.8%-1.7%7.1 10.6 16.4 20.3 21.9 15.4 2.8 28.8%30.1%31.0%33.2%31.0%23.0%21.8%7.1 10.6 16.3 20.2 21.7 15.1 2.8 YOY 49.7%53.1%24.1%7.2%-30.3%-19.3%7.0 10.0 15.3 19.0 19.8 13.7 2.5 YOY44.0%52.9%24.0%4.2%-30.5%-21.7%8.3 10.2 15.5 18.9 21.8 12.1-1.2 ROE 21.1%26.8%24.2%17.5%9.7%0.58 0.64 0.55 0.46 0.35 15.7%18.6%30.8%20.3%18.5%18.1%20.5%Wind 2023Q1 1789.HK AH 7 2022-5.5%/-30.3%/-30.5%2023Q1+3.5%/-19.3%/-21.7%2019 2020 2022 2022 2023Q1 75.2%/73.7%-5.5pp/-7.6pp 23.0%/21.8%-8.0pp/-5.9pp 2022 2023Q1 33.1%/34.7%+0.8pp/-0.6pp 7.1%/5.7%+1.3pp/-0.1pp 11.6%/11.4%+2.9pp/+0.8pp-1.8%/-1.7%-1.0pp/-0.1pp 2022 4%Wind%Wind%Wind 42.8%49.4%15.8%15.3%-5.5%3.5%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.02017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q1 YOY49.7%53.1%24.1%7.2%-30.3%-19.3%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%0.05.010.015.020.025.02017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q1 YOY0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q1%Wind-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q1 5 2021 5 2021 6 2021 8 2021 11-2022 697 1 88.65%4683 606 87.05%9360 987 89.45%11687 1271 89.12%3+N 16 2022 2 2022 3 2022 5-12108.57 1 83.48%167 641 344 907 299 1117 2022 12 2023 1 2023 4-2 73%74%89.46%73.58%79%69.22%78.52%2021 6 2021 8 2021 9 2022 3-52023 55 20 70 80%2 82%3.5 7000 3.2 5000 77.43%80.38%82.87%84.25%2022 7 2022 8 2022 9 2023 2-5121 21 240 50%3 84%4 5600 2.7 1100 6 2021 2022 2023 12 5 8 12 2 9 6 11 2 3 5 6 7 12 3+N 3+N 1 2-3 4 5 1 1 9 2 9 7 7 2 3 Q3-4 2 2024 3-5 7 2020 2020 2025 2025E 0-15%-30%-40%-50%CAGR2%119 101 83 72 60 4%131 112 92 79 66 6%145 123 101 87 72 8%159 135 111 95 79 10%174 148 122 104 87 5159677792108475563738710540495970861020501001502002503003502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025E 0-15%-30%-40%-50%CAGR4%128 109 89 77 64 8%154 131 108 93 77 12%185 157 130 111 93 16%221 187 154 132 110 20%261 222 183 157 131 2015-2020 CAGR16.2%17.4%20.6%2025E 0-15%-30%-40%-50%CAGR10%164 140 115 99 82 13%188 160 132 113 94 15%205 174 144 123 103 17%224 190 157 134 112 20%254 216 178 152 127 8 2022 2022 688161.SH 1789.HK 688236.SH 002901.SZ 688085.SH 688613.SH 688314.SH 3D 177 78 107 131 67 33 31 18.48 10.52 12.02 14.34 6.49 2.45 2.40 YoY-14.2%38.2%8.4%-28.1%9.4%3.9%12.9%2022 8.87 4.17 4.46 9.21 0.6/0.47 10.46 1.16 0.37 5.42 4.72 1.92 0.59 0.47 5.38 0.24 0.74 1.60 0.57 0.23 PEEK 1.41 0.76 0.12 5.44 2.05 3.08 0.92 1.91 0.95 0.76 YoY-21.2%121.1%-4.5%-86.3%2.4%-21.2%-7.3%5.33-2.74 0.91 1.34 0.80 0.68 YoY-21.4%-10.9%-85.2%6.5%-17.9%2.4%74.8%60.5%76.0%76.7%90.2%83.4%81.5%29.4%19.4%25.6%7.6%31.4%37.4%30.9%4.44 0.00 0.41 1.28 1.56 1.02 0.92 PS TTM 9.32 6.62 10.40 9.39 9.86 13.19 12.17 PE TTM 32.74 34.08 42.77 336.74 34.88 32.42 39.63 Wind 2023/6/149 2023Q1 2023 3 1 2023Q1 688161.SH 688236.SH 002901.SZ 688085.SH 688613.SH 688314.SH 3.90 2.46 3.91 1.61 0.48 0.65 YoY 0.6%-4.2%-9.2%24.2%4.2%20.8%0.94 0.56 0.58 0.35 0.19 0.19 YoY-18.1%-24.5%-47.8%4.5%40.8%7.7%0.91 0.50 0.47 0.31 0.15 0.19 YoY-19.3%-33.4%-51.1%0.3%114.0%5.8%74.0%68.4%69.7%85.5%81.0%81.5%24.1%22.7%16.0%21.8%35.1%29.5%0.33-1.20-1.01 0.40 0.12 0.14 Wind 10 1 47%24%11%4%-19%14%-39%-22%15%102%21%8%12%-12%16%-65%-48%-4%-90%-60%-30%0%30%60%90%120%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12020 2021 2022 2023 yoy yoy6%36%34%23%63%7%5%45%15%-16%-11%-71%-9%8%40%21%45%46%6%-16%23%-15%-63%-76%-155%-48%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12020 2021 2022 2023 20Q1 21Q4-22Q1 22Q2-22Q3 3+N 23Q2 22Q2 Wind 11 2 20Q1 21Q4-22Q1 22Q2-22Q3 3+N 23Q2 22Q2 18%18%13%23%-20%13%-4%1%0%8%-5%8%-17%-25%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12020 2021 2022 2023 yoy yoy-31%13%25%23%138%42%33%44%10%17%17%-4%24%-39%-13%77%57%151%55%3%88%11%7%12%-9%4%-50%0%50%100%150%200%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12020 2021 2022 2023 Wind 12 Wind Wind 50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2022 13 2022 2022 1 14.1 2 26.6 3 5.2 9%36.8%8.87-13.1%89.2%-0.7pp 4.17-31.6%78.6%-6.2pp 4.46-4.85%51.2%-12.7pp+3.21%+1.99%+46.0%5.42-51.9%74.4%-11.9pp 4.72-16.5%85.7%-2.3pp 1.92+28.1%75.9%-2.7pp+12.59%10.46+1.1%76.8%-1.4pp 1.16+70.1%72.3%+10.3pp 0.37+927.1%65,2%+30.1pp+63.06%+101.16%+881.4%1 A 2 40%2021 5.38+4.1%92.2%+1.2pp 0.24-16.9%65.5%-23.6pp 0.74+58.7%92.2%+4.4pp+8.61%+41.11%+50.00%1 953 34972022 4 2 3D 9.21+44.7%6.55+39.5%2.66+59.2%0.60-24.3%0.47+101.3%-14 1 2022 1 2 PEEK DBM 3 4 3D 5 PRP 1 2 3 262/22 1.08-11.1%/5.83%23Q1 0.27+36.2%/7.01%731/22 2.57+53.7%/17.9%23Q1 0.63+33.4%/16.1%15 2 2022 PEEK PRP 3D 3D 3D 3.6 24 12 2023 4 CNAS/399/22 1.62+54.8%/13.5%23Q1 0.33+0.5%/13.5%1 Duetto 2 3D 5mm NMPA 3 2022 4 CNAS 2 100/CAGR 20%86/22 0.60+6.8%/9.3%23Q1 0.14+15.9%/8.9%1 2022 VTS 2-/22 1.11-1.9%/10.5%16 1 2022 yoy/1 2 3&4&3,500 2,000 65.7%26.9%7.4%22 6.01-19.5%/32.5%23Q1 1.58+1.4%/40.5%30 65.5%34.5%22 6.63+1.2%/46.2%23Q1 1.28-17.3/32.8%17 2 2022 yoy/8000 77.6%13.3%9.1%22 3.91+14.5%/32.6%23Q1 0.65-18.7%/26.4%1 2/48.9%51.1%22 2.97+0.7%/45.8%23Q1 0.77+21.4%/48.1%1 90%Pathways 2-22 1.80-3.9%/17.1%18 2022 2022 9 17 VSM TPM LCIA DM 10%20%600/40.35%/21.90%/27.54%/10.20%23.33%/22.96%/39.96%/13.76%62.62%/5.09%/22.29%/10.00%4.96 35.82%33.90%30.28%2022 3D 3D CVD/76.12%/4.36%/19.52%73.20%/7.46%/19.34%87.65%/2.66%/9.69%2022 18.9%14.1%46.3%20.7%2022 3D 50 60-19 ORTHOWORLD AK 2018 JRI JRI 0.78+3.3%2022 12 31 72 CE 15 2 FDA 2022 11 2 A3 GT Harish Parmar A3 GT A3 GT 2022 CE 40 CE FDA ANVISA ARTG 16,573 27.20%15.75%10,904 109.76%9.09%63.06%7,894-1.26%5.50%75.53%4,358 13.39%2.36%67.73%426-15.96%0.66%79.58%20 2022 2023 01 2022 2023 02 03 04 JNJ.N SYK.N ZBH.N MDT.N SNN.N GMED.N NUVA.O Globus MedicalNuVasive 4,199 1,114 296 1,170 138 57 21 2022949.43 184.49 69.40 312.27 52.15 10.23 12.022022 179.41 23.58 2.90*37.58 2.23 1.90 0.402022 Non-GAAP 270.38 35.71 14.49 70.45 7.13 2.12 1.04 51%25%APAC 18%6%74%26%58%42%52%30%18%80%20%85%15%77%23%85.87 31%9%78.38 42%44.51 14%35.50 68%2022-0.4%+3.5%+1.6%-0.1%-1.0%+5.5%+6.8%2022%67.3%62.8%63.3%65.7%70.5%74.2%72.0%2022%18.9%12.8%3.3%12.0%4.3%18.6%3.3%PS TTM 4.36 5.88 4.17 3.75 2.64 5.30 1.71 PE TTM GAAP 33.00 42.42 65.86 31.12 61.82 28.15 103.48 Wind 2023/6/14 22 2023 2022.4.29-2023.4.28 22 2022 2023 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000 NuVasive Globus 8,5877,8386,9404,4513,5501,2021,023 23 2022 2023Q1 VELYS 2022 85.87 15.14+2.3%13.59+2.6%ACTIS stem 2021 VELYS 28.71-0.5%28.43-1.9%2023 Q1 22.45 2.6%3.90+0.4%3.68+8.7%7.3%VS-9.0%12.4%VS 3.4%ATTUNE VELYS 7.57+1.2%7.29+2.4%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00022A 23Q1 yoy yoy yoy yoy VELYS ATTUNE 24 2022 2023Q1 2022 78.38 3.5%7.0%6.0%2.2%9.3%19.97+8.0%14.13+5.3%28.07+5.4%11.46-1.8%4.75-13.3%2023 Q1 20.88 12.7%15.1%13.2%11.6%20.2%5.66+22.0%3.75+14.4%7.69+12.4%2.84+1.9%0.94-3.4%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01000200030004000500060007000800090002022 2023Q1 yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy Mako 2022 100 35 17 330 1500 100 25 2022 2023Q1 2022 69.40 1.6%6.6%4.1%1.5%9.7%27.78+4.9%18.95+2.1%S.E.T 16.97-1.8%5.7-4.3%2023 Q1 18.31 10.1%13.2%12.7%6.7%14.0%7.63+15.0%4.93+9.3%S.E.T 4.33+4.0%1.42+7.3%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%0100020003000400050006000700080002022 2023Q1 SET yoy yoy SETyoy yoy ROSA 26 12 2022 2023Q1 ENT 12-point 2022 37.03 1.0%4.0%8.2%3.5%8.99+2.5%5.84-4.4%0.87-5.6%5.43-5.7%14.37+0.6%2023 Q1 9.25 2.5%11.8%11.5%2.37+2.3%1.52+1.8%0.23+16.2%1.36-3.2%3.77+4.4%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%050010001500200025003000350040002022 2023Q1 yoy yoy yoy yoy 27 FY21Q1-FY23Q4 2023 23 4 12 44.51 0.1%2.5%2.8%9441,0711,0811,1921,1231,0671,1021,1651,0431,0811,1281,198-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0200400600800100012001400Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4FY21 FY22 FY23 MAZOR 28 NuVasive Globus Medical NuVasive Globus Medical 2023 2 NuVasive 31 Globus 72%NuVasive 2022 12.02 5.5%8.5%6.8%3.3%4.9%17.7%23Q1 3.08 5.8%7.7%Globus Medical 2022 10.23 6.8%8.2%6.4%8.9%19.1%23Q1 2.77 20.0%NuVasive Globus Medical 2022 2023Q1 1202 308 1023 277 5.5%5.8%6.8%20.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%020040060080010001200140022 23Q122 23Q1NuVasive Globus Medical yoy NuVasive Globus Medical NuVasive Globus Medical29 2022 2023 01 2022 2023 02 03 04 OrthoWorld OrthoWorld 550 OrthoWorld 2022 555 3-4%2023 200 01002003004005002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 31 OrthoWorld OrthoWorld&Smith&Nephew Smith&Nephew Debuy Synthes Debuy Synthes Debuy Synthes NuVasiveGlobus Smith&Nephew Arthrex MTP Biologics Debuy Synthes 32/2022 8 2022 6 SLM SLM 2020 10-()2023 5 2022 2/Bongros Implanet 500 Implanet 2023 3 Implanet 43.14%Implanet JAZZ 2022 5 FD880A XD880A 2023 2 17 33/3D PRP 3D CF/PEEK INS 1 PRP 3D 3D/NMPA 34 Triathlon Tritanium TKA 2018 2017 25%2022 12 100 Triathlon Tritanium Triathlon Tritanium 3D highly porous Persona OsseoTi2022 11 FDA 510 K Triathlon Tritanium2017 10 FDA 510 K Triathlon SOMA ATTUNE AFFIXIUM2020 8 FDA 510 K AFFIXIUM 3DP LEGION CONCELOC2021 11 3D FDA 35 Persona IQ Persona IQ Persona IQ Canary Medical 2021 8 FDA Persona IQ Canary Persona IQ Mymobility Care 36 Clarivate OrthoWorld 2013 12 Mako Surgical RIO 2016 BlueBelt 2017 NA VIO 2016 1.32 Medtech ROSA 2017 Verily 2019 Orthotaxy 2018 16.4 Mazor Robotics MAKO 2016 FDA 2020 1000 2019 18.15 2022 19.97 2019/22 14.80/13.59 28.10/27.78 10.42/8.99 23Q1 yoy+22%VS+8.7%+15%+2.3%MAKO 37 VTS Mako 2018 2021 SkyWalker System 2022 4 2022 7 FDA FDA VTS 2023 3 2022,72%,20%,4%,4%,41.67%,41.67%,8.33%,8.33%38 2015 2020 12 27 17.6%/2010-2018 2015-2025 39 PRP PRP PRP PRP PRP 3-5 25-30%PRP 3-5 25-30%10.3 100%PRP PRP 2013 2021/2022 10 1.77/1.72 4467/4571 2022-25 0.559/0.672/0.833/1.0 25%/20%/24%/20%2021/22 23.08/18.43X 2022 PRP PRP PRP PRP PRP 30-100ml PRP 3-8 5-20ml2 40 2013 A 16ml 2 1 15 2015 B 8ml 2-3 2-3ml 1 10 2017 C 30-40ml 3-5 3-5m 2 30 2016 A 30-100ml 2-6 3-5ml 1 15 2022 B 30-100ml 2-6 3-5ml 1 15 2022 C 30ml 2-10 2-6ml 1 15 2021 40 22Q1-23Q1 22Q1-23Q1 23Q1 Q4FY23 ATEC*22Q1 22Q2 ATEC 21Q2 5 3%NuVasive 12.02 Globus 10.23 ATEC 3.5 ATEC 27.78/19.97/13.59/8.99 5 3-4%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 NuVasiveGlobus ATEC ATEC*-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 41 3D PEEK 3D 2015 8 3D NMPA 11 3D 3D 3D 2022 3D ACT 3D 2022 4 3D 2023 2 3D 3D 2022 3D PEEK 42 2022 2023 01 2022 2023 02 03 04 2005 4 2021 312 II III 94 2017-2021 CAGR 24.2%CAGR 35.8%500 2018 445 500 15%4.6%2019/2017-21 3.6 PRP 2023-25 2023-25 21.84/27.22/33.97 23.26/29.15/36.07 18.2%/24.6%/24.8%5.01/6.31/8.13 5.97/7.57/9.39-7.9%/25.8%/28.9%PE 35/28/22 44 2024 187 2019-24 16.87%PEEK 3D 2022 1.16+70.14%72.32%+10.30pp 0.37+927.13%65.18%+30.11pp 2022 1.62 54.8%13.51%PRP 2023-25 15.07/19.25/24.19 25.4%/27.8%/25.7%3.54/4.46/5.63 15.0%/26.0%/26.2%PE 35/28/22 45 2003 3D 2019 2019-24 16.87%2022 4 90%3D 2 3D 54 2022 4659 101.3%3D 2022 6 TMK E 3D 2023-25 13.97/18.22/23.79 32.8%/30.4%/30.6%2.67/3.51/4.63 30.5%/31.6%/31.8%PE 27/20/15 46 2022 5.42-51.89%4.72-16.50%1.92+28.1%0.59+173.3%0.47+7.2%2022 2.57+53.66%300 47 2011 Adena Zina Halis PEEK 2022 6.49+9.4%1.91+2.4%A 2022 40%2022 Duetto Implanet 3D 48 2022 1 2 3 EPS PE ROE PEG 2023/6/14 22A 23E 24E 25E 22A 23E 24E 25E 22A 23E688161 44.24 177 1.36 1.25 1.58 2.03 32.5 35.3 28.0 21.8 11.2%2.5 688236 32.23 107 0.80 0.92 1.16 1.47 40.3 35.0 27.8 21.9 11.3%1.6 1789.HK 6.97 78 0.18 0.24 0.31 0.42 34.9 26.6 20.3 15.4 9.1%0.8 002901 31.64 131 0.22 0.77 1.15 1.55 143.8 41.2 27.5 20.4 3.1%0.4 688085 27.00 68 0.84 0.87 1.15 1.44 32.1 31.1 23.6 18.8 10.4%1.6 688613 24.46 33 0.71 0.56 0.99 1.35 34.5 44.1 24.7 18.1 7.3%1.8 688314 37.60 31 1.30 1.21 1.54 1.97 28.9 31.0 24.4 19.1 13.9%2.1 Wind Wind 49 CeramTec GmbH CeramTec GmbH 50 6 20%6 10%-20%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032