20230614_国泰君安证券_检验检测行业报告：检测服务行稳致远稳中求进穿越牛熊_49页.pdf

021-38676779 S0880521020003()0755-S0880522090004 2 2016-2021 CAGR 14.65%2020 CR5 3.01%CR3 7.69%30 Eurofins SGS BV Eurofins 2009 2021 SGS 2022 PHM CRO 1 2 3 ZXDWzQrMsRmNqOpMqNqPoPbRcM6MpNoOtRmPkPnNqOjMoPnQ6MrRyRxNpOmOMYrRrP3/3/CONTENTS0103040506024/45 10%01 10%2021 4090.22 2016-2021 CAGR 14.65%10%2018 2018 24.59%2018 26.56%47.44%1 2016-2021 CAGR 12.13%2 2016-2021 CAGR 14.65%（亿元）（亿元）2,065 2,377 2,811 3,225 3,586 4,090 15%18%15%11%14%0%5%10%15%20%0100020003000400050002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY10,039 10,942 12,157 14,262 14,776 17,800 9%11%17%4%20%0%5%10%15%20%25%050001000015000200002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY6 01 2013 24847 2021 51949 2021 100 96.31%7 2021 1000 13.52%78.93%1000 3 2013-2021 4 2013-2021 311223323536327394724400748919519491161114118166601923122958273023072701000020000300004000050000600002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 10.9%11.6%12.3%12.8%13.2%13.1%13.5%71.5%73.4%74.4%76.5%76.9%77.4%78.9%0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 7 CR5 4%01 5 6 2021 CR3 7.69%CR5 3.01%CR5 4%CR5 4%Wind Bloomberg Wind Bloomberg 5 2021 CR3 7.69%6 2021 CR5 3.01%0.09%0.12%0.13%0.14%0.26%1.45%2.18%2.67%2.84%90.14%0%20%40%60%80%100%IntertekBVSGSEurofins0.37%0.49%0.54%0.55%1.06%96.99%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%8 01 2021 51949 73.16%2025 65%2025 65%7 2021 73.16%8 2021,0.84%,26.00%,73.16%,8.53%,9.66%,12.41%,14.14%,24.55%,30.71%9 03 1 10+03 Wind Wind 9 10 0%5%10%15%20%25%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 14%16%18%20%22%24%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 11 01 2022 1 2022 1 2022 1(2021-2035)2022 1 2022 3 2025 2022 3 2022 8 5 2023 4 2023 5 2 12/1213020406080100120140Eurofins SGS BVI 2009 02 2009 1 1-2023 5 31 Eurofins SGS BV 3166%332%244%Eurofins Bloomberg 11 2009 Eurofins 12 2021 Eurofins Bloomberg 331 311 329 332 366 376 399 369 360 419 103 105138185232297357436485498398 369 366 407 424 466 475 415 447 463 01002003004005006002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022BVI Eurofins SGS14 02 SGS BV Eurof ins 7212652121 1 1242631 1631 12024682016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 21022181210 101912811697981114789 9 9651643 352010172127605026 2638590102030405060702009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022SGS BV Eurofins Eurofins 2022 59 2021 38 55.26%SGS 2022 7 SGS SGS 2022 5 13 2009-2022 Eurofins 14 15Eurofins 02 Eurofins Eurofins Eurofins 1987 900+/2022 498.23 2010 CAGR 19.31%2022 2022 498.23/+2.73%45.3/-19.84%2021 20%2020 184%103 10513818523229735743648549817%2%32%34%25%28%20%22%11%3%0%10%20%30%40%01002003004005006002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY 15 2022 Eurofins 6.1 5.9 6.212.716.917.615.343.356.545.395%-3%5%105%33%4%-13%184%31%-20%-50%0%50%100%150%200%01020304050602013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY 16 Eurofins Eurofins 16Eurofins 02 2021 CPT VIBT Experchem 2010 10%2022 37.2%Eurofins 17 2022 Eurofins 89%,37.2%,52.2%,10.6%17SGS 02 SGS/SGS 1878 2600+/2022 463.5 2010 CAGR 2.72%SGS 2022 2022 463.4/+3.7%41.1/-3.97%SGS SGS 18 2022 SGS 463/+3.70%19 SGS2022 398 369 366 407 424 466 475 415 447 463 5%-7%-1%11%4%10%2%-13%8%3.70%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%01002003004005002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY41.039.435.236.941.544.747.535.542.841.18%-4%-11%5%12%8%6%-25%20%-3.97%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%010203040502013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY 18SGS 02 2010 22%2022 32.5%2010 4%2022 13.4%2010 40%2022 23.8%Conserve 2010 28%2022 35.3%SGS SGS 20 2022 SGS,19.8%,13.4%,32.5%,23.8%,10.5%/,44.30%,20.50%,35.30%21 SGS 19BV 02 BV BV 1828 1600+/2022 419.44 2010 CAGR 4.13%2022 2.18%BV2022 2022 419.44/+16.6%34.64/+14.0%BV BV 22 2022 BV 16.6%23 2021 331 311 329 332 366 376 399 369 360 419 0.8%-6.1%5.7%1.1%10.1%2.9%5.9%-7.4%-2.6%16.6%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0100200300400500 YOY29 22 18 23 24 26 29 10 30 35 16.0%-24.4%-17.5%28.9%3.0%8.6%10.2%-65.0%202.1%14.0%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%05101520253035402013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY 20BV 02 2010 14%2022 29.4%2010 4%2022 21.7%Siemic 2010 18%2022 27.5%2010 28%2022 29.8%BV BV 24 2022 BV 25 2022 BV,7.4%,7.6%,21.7%,29.4%,20.9%,13.0%,33.8%,29.8%,27.5%,8.9%21/2122 03 2021 17.44%10.15%2015 2.5%1.82%1.71%26 2015 10%27 2021 2015,19.27%,7.65%,6.08%,5.59%,4.71%,4.43%,3.85%,3.84%,44.58%,17.44%,10.15%,8.97%,6.53%,5.55%,4.55%,4.46%,4.09%,2.75%,2.53%,33.16%23 03669912214717821650%23%20%21%21%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 3353 33653456338932993545564168080.4%2.7%-1.9%-2.7%7.5%59.1%20.7%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%020004000600080002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY 28 29 2022 6808 2018 20%2021 216 2022 6808 2015 3455 7 24 03 2021 415 11%2022 2 16 2023-2024 30 31 13815720523631437441514%31%15%33%19%11%0%8%16%24%32%40%01002003004005002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 25 CRO CRO 0378 86 94 102 115 130 144 15917519163677177849310411412413526029032434637941947152357562510%10%7%10%11%12%11%10%9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%020040060080010002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 3 4 5 711152027344229 1013151923273239111317233244608010413363%23%34%35%34%32%30%27%26%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 32 2014-2023 CRO GAGR 10%33 2014-2023 CRO GAGR 29%Frost&Sullivan CRO CRO 2022 CRO 874 CRO CRO 2014 16 2022 170 29%Frost&Sullivan 26 03 2021 10 2030 2025 20%2020 13.5%2020 18%2030 25%2005 65%2030 8122879389799219 9257 9226 92349445967698699974105238.3%2.1%2.7%0.4%-0.3%0.1%2.3%2.4%2.0%1.1%5.5%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%0200040006000800010000120002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 34 27 03 35 36 Wind 2022 1310 2021 592 10%2258.321532613814927841310165%162%71%46%29%59%67%0%40%80%120%160%200%02004006008001000120014002014 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY 375.99427.3489.93540.4259214%15%10%10%8%9%10%11%12%13%14%15%01002003004005006007002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY Wind 28 03 37 38 Wind 2021 32.46 119%7,411 8,290 9,088 9,766 10,432 11,280 12,122 12,919 13,787 11%12%10%7%7%8%7%7%7%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%02000400060008000100001200014000160002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY6.35 5.69 7.77 8.84 14.80 32.46-10%37%14%67%119%-30%0%30%60%90%120%150%051015202530352016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY Wind 29 0311813516018521223926529032814%19%16%15%13%11%9%13%0%5%10%15%20%0501001502002503003502013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E YOY 39 2013 118 2021 328 13.6%30 03 2016-2021 56.68 67.56 80.29 87.86 101.4 96.02 CAGR 11%56.6867.5680.2987.86101.496.0219%19%9%15%-5%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001202016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 40 31/3132 Wind 3 2022 2023Q1 A 16 16 04 2022 2023Q1%300012.SZ 51.3 18.5%9.0 21.0%49.4%18.0%11.2 23.1%1.4 20.4%47.1%13.3%300354.SZ 3.7 42.8%1.2 52.2%67.5%33.2%0.7 54.5%0.1 116.2%65.5%14.3%300416.SZ 18.1 20.2%2.7 41.8%46.7%17.3%4.4 27.5%0.4 53.7%43.5%11.8%002967.SZ 26.0 15.9%1.8 1.0%39.6%7.3%5.5 50.9%-0.03 96.7%35.7%-1.6%603882.SH 154.8 29.6%27.5 24.0%43.1%18.4%21.2-50.2%1.5-82.4%37.9%6.6%300244.SZ 202.8 55.0%14.3 23.3%37.2%9.2%32.3-30.5%1.6-78.7%33.5%7.9%601965.SH 32.9-14.2%6.9-0.4%44.1%22.1%7.1 26.0%1.4 9.5%42.5%22.2%300887.SZ 37.6 87.5%3.2 45.6%35.5%8.6%5.3-1.5%0.1 68.1%40.7%1.8%603060.SH 24.3 9.5%2.5 0.1%44.6%14.1%4.7 14.7%-0.2 13.9%31.0%-7.5%300215.SZ 6.5-24.3%0.3-82.8%37.5%5.2%1.3-20.9%-0.1-177.8%23.2%-8.5%300797.SZ 8.2 16.2%1.1 35.2%46.4%11.5%1.8 21.7%0.1-33.8%42.9%2.0%300572.SZ 4.5-5.4%-0.3-406.2%49.2%-4.8%1.1-5.6%0.0-72.3%38.8%3.3%688071.SH 3.4 5.0%0.4-37.3%49.7%11.2%1.0 105.8%0.1 428.7%42.7%12.1%301228.SZ 3.5-17.3%-0.2-135.8%33.4%-4.5%0.7 28.7%-0.2-40.5%13.4%-28.4%300675.SZ 4.7-5.7%0.7 64.3%37.3%15.8%0.6 0.7%-0.4-71.6%-2.6%-56.6%003008.SZ 1.6 8.4%0.7 7.4%69.8%44.2%0.4 27.4%0.2 19.2%67.6%41.3%33 2022 04 Wind 41 2022+30.2%2022 2022 16 A 583.81+30.17%2023Q1 99.14-21.73%2022 42 2022 51.31 3.67 18.05 37.62 11 1 4 5 19%43%20%87%23%55%27%-2%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0102030405060 2022 2023Q1 2022 YOY 2023Q1 YOY Wind 66 77 95 147 188 238 282 355 448 584 99 17.0%22.9%54.1%27.8%27.0%18.4%26.0%26.2%30.2%-21.7%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0100200300400500600700 YOY34 2022 2023Q1 04 2022 2022 16 A 72.04+15%2023Q1 6.05-66%2023Q1 Wind 43 2022+15%44 2023Q1 9.0 1.2 2.7 3.2 1.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 21%52%42%46%20%116%54%68%0%40%80%120%160%0246810 2022 2023Q1 2022 YOY 2023Q1YOY Wind 11 10 11 15 19 23 30 48 62 72 6-7%13%30%26%23%29%61%30%15%-66%-80%-40%0%40%80%01020304050607080 YOY35 2022 2023Q1 04 Wind 45 2022 2022 45.69%1.41pct 14.17%2.79pct 2022 2023Q1 37.71%2.13%2022 4650%46%46%48%49%47%47%46%47%46%38%16%13%13%15%16%15%17%17%17%14%2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%49%68%47%36%18%33%17%9%0%20%40%60%80%2022 2022 Wind 36 2023Q1 04 Wind 47 2022 2022 29.88%0.68pct 2023Q1 36.11%2022 30%48 2022 33%33%33%31%31%31%29%28%29%30%36%20%24%28%32%36%40%31%32%28%25%33%48%29%38%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2022 2023Q1 Wind 37 04 Wind 49 2022 31.84+27.4%8.38%2023Q1 6.28+4.50%9.36%2022 4.35 50 2022 4.35 0.35 1.34 2.78 0.91 0.10 0.30 0.53 8%9%7%7%8%14%7%10%0%5%10%15%012345 2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 Wind 4 5 7 9 11 13 16 20 25 32 6 7.8%7.6%7.6%7.3%7.8%7.6%7.3%7.3%7.7%8.4%9.4%6%7%8%9%10%05101520253035（亿元）38/3839 050.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.007,000.008,000.009,000.000204060801001202018-05-112018-08-102018-11-162019-02-222019-05-242019-08-232019-11-222020-02-282020-05-292020-08-282020-11-272021-02-262021-05-282021-08-272021-11-262022-03-042022-06-022022-09-022022-12-092023-03-17 TTM 51 PE-TTM36X 0.39%2023 6 8 Wind 52 PB3.78X 1.97%2023 6 8 0.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.007,000.008,000.009,000.00024681012142018-05-252018-08-242018-11-302019-03-082019-06-062019-09-062019-12-062020-03-132020-06-122020-09-112020-12-112021-03-122021-06-112021-09-102021-12-102022-03-182022-06-172022-09-162022-12-232023-03-31 2023 6 8 PE TTM 36X 5 0.39%PB 3.78X 5 1.97%Wind 4005101520253035402018-5-29 2019-5-29 2020-5-29 2021-5-29 2022-5-29 2023-5-29BV SGS Eurofins PE 25 PE 05 PE 5 PE 25X PE 30-35X Bloomberg 53 PE 25X4105 4 2023/06/14 EPS PE 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E300012.SZ 18.95 0.54 0.68 0.86 1.03 35.32 27.87 22.03 18.40 300354.SZ 40.80 0.88 1.44 1.96 2.67 46.34 28.33 20.82 15.28 300416.SZ 20.47 0.70 0.94 1.22 1.52 29.35 21.78 16.78 13.47 300887.SZ 37.06 1.12 1.31 1.72 2.21 33.16 28.21 21.51 16.73-603882.SH 72.72 5.89 2.66 3.49 4.40 12.34 27.37 20.83 16.52-300244.SZ 25.37 2.29 1.79 2.23 2.69 11.09 14.14 11.37 9.42-601965.SH 21.31 0.69 0.85 1.01 1.19 31.07 25.18 21.09 17.86-603060.SH 11.51 0.35 0.41 0.51 0.63 33.18 27.74 22.37 18.32-300215.SZ 5.02 0.04 0.29 0.40 114.87 17.07 12.47-300797.SZ 17.43 0.45 0.58 0.77 0.94 39.05 30.26 22.67 18.49-300572.SZ 17.43-0.14 1.20 1.62 2.11-127.13 14.53 10.76 8.26-688071.SH 48.41 0.50 1.46 2.35 3.43 96.98 33.10 20.58 14.12-wind EPS EPS Wind 42 05 2022 51.31/+18.52%2023Q1 11.17/+23.07%2022 44.77%17.62%13.97%54 2022 18.52%55 44.77%Wind（亿元）9.2612.8816.5221.1826.8131.8335.6843.2951.3111.1739%28%28%27%19%12%21%19%23%0%10%20%30%40%50%0102030405060 YOY 45%17%14%13%11%Wind 43 PHM 05 2022 3.67/+42.81%2023Q1 0.72/+54.52%2022 58.72%PHM 22.39%PHM 8.83%56 2022 42.81%57 58.72%Wind（亿元）0.911.141.30 1.291.341.782.052.573.670.7225.2%13.7%-0.2%3.6%32.4%15.5%25.2%42.8%54.5%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01234 YOY 59%PHM 22%PHM 9%8%2%Wind 44 05 2022 18.05/+20.21%2023Q1 4.38/+27.45%2022 46.52%33.90%13.89%58 2022 22.11%59 46.52%Wind（亿元）2.543.133.944.916.297.8811.8515.0218.054.3823%26%25%28%25%50%27%20%27%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05101520 YOY46%34%14%Wind 45 05 2022 2022 37.62/+87.48%2023Q1 5.25/-1.50%2022 85.99%7.64%4.18%1.88%60 2022 87.48%61 2022 Wind（亿元）8.1710.3912.5112.8714.2620.0737.625.2527%20%3%11%41%87%-2%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0102030402016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 YOY Wind,85.99%,7.64%,4.18%,1.88%,0.26%,0.05%46/464706 48 E-mail:03 300/300/300/300/300/300/300/THANKS FORLISTENING