20230613_首创证券_有色金属行业全球铜矿梳理：近充足远有忧_39页.pdf
SAC S0110521120001 021-58820297 010-81152687 2023 6 13 2023 8 2021 2021-22 30 2022 1470 2.1%2023 60-155 107 7.3%2023 2015 2023-2030 749 2025-26 10 2023 2027 MinEx Consulting 300 2000 2000 1%2030 0.6%Codelco 40 Kamoa TFM+KFM Josemaria ElPacho MARA Taca Taca Los Azules 1ZEVyRnQsRmNrPsRmRpQqR9PaO7NmOqQnPtQlOrRtNkPsQxP8OoOvNvPnOrPvPrMnO 资料来源：各公 司公告，首创 证券2022 2023 30 2022 1470 2.1%66.8%2021 2023 8 2023 1529-1624 4.1%-10.5%1577 7.3%2023 2015 30 2022 150 3 150-100 1 100-50 7 KGHM 50-10 15 Newcrest OZ Minerals Boliden Hudbay 0-10 4 Kamoa-Kakula 100%1,304 1,346 1,406 1,372 1,448 1,439 1,421 1,440 1,470 1,577-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E全球主要矿企铜矿 产量（万 吨）同比191 167 155 106 89 78 73 66 65 54 52 43 38 33 28 27 26 25 25 20 20 14 14 12 11 10 0204060801001201401601802002022年全球主要矿企铜矿产量（万吨）资料来源：各公 司公告，首创 证券2025-26 2027-28 2025 26 2027-2028 MinEx Consulting 300 1 2000 2000 1%2030 0.6%2 3 ESG 107 75 53 60 81 134 127 113 0204060801001201402023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E全球主要铜矿项目 产量 增量 2023-25 2022 191 Morenci+Cerro Verde+Grasberg 75%2023 42 190.5 2023-25 41 42 42 191 191 191 191-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E铜矿产量（万吨）同比资料来源：自由 港公司 公告，首创证 券 2023 Grasberg81%2023 48.76%100%2020 2021 2022North AmericaMorenci 72%707 631 636Safford 100%161 265 285Sierrita 100%178 189 184Bagdad 100%216 184 165Chino 100%92 124 130Tyrone 100%45 55 59Miami 100%17 12 11Other 100%2-3Total North America 1,418 1,460 1,467South AmericaCerro Verde 53.56%820 887 974El Abra 51%159 160 202Total South America 979 1,047 1,176Indonesia Grasberg minerals district 48.76%809 1,336 1,567 3,206 3,843 4,210 2023-25 资料来源：自由 港公 司 公告，首创证 券1 380 2023 2 9.07 2 Bagdad Expansion 2022 165 7.48 2023 3 Lone Star Expansions 23 3/2 1/4.54 500 2268 4 Kucing Liar Grasberg 2028-41 60 600 2022 10 5 PT-FI Mill Recovery PT 2024 6000 2.76 EI Abra Expansion 2015 Cerro Verde 71.1 71.8 77.1 72.6 72.6 72.6-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0102030405060708090Grasberg 铜矿产量（万吨）同比2022 Grasberg Grasberg 2019 2020-22 Escondida Pampa Norte Olympic Dam Antamina 2022 166.6 Escondida 102.64 OZ Minerals Escondida 资料 来源：必和 必拓 公 司公 告，首创 证券1 Escondida 120 2022 102.64 2 Spence Growth Option(SGO)2020 12 2022 4 4+27 2023 2021/22 25.7 29.3 3 Olympic Dam 4 Oak Dam 5 Resolution 45%55%BHP 45%6 Antamina-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001201401601802002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E铜矿产量（万吨）同比 2021 2022Escondida 57.5%+984 1026Pampa Norte 100%+257 293Olympic Dam 100%155 199Antamina 33.75%145 148 1536 1666 Pampa Norte Spence Cerro Colorado Antamina 33.75%100%OZ Minerals OZ Minerals Escondida 资料 来源：必和 必拓 公 司公 告，首创 证券 Pampa Norte Spence Cerro Colorado Prominent Hill Carrapateen Caraj s 2022 12.4 23 12-14.3 Prominent Hill 4.6-5.6 Carrapateen 6.1-7.1 Caraj s 1.3-1.6 OZ Minerals 10 Prominent Hill 2025 500/600/6.6+1.1wt Carrapateen 2023-25 7 22 5.7 2028 14+7wt West Musgrave 2025 5 4.1wt 3.5wt 6-3.3wt 2.7wt Kalkaroo Kalkaroo 18 15 3wt 72Koz 2023 4 OZ Minerals BHP-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%02468101214铜矿产量（万吨）同比资料来源：OZ Minerals 公司公 告，首 创证券 Codelco 1955 7 El Teniente Chuquicamata Salvador Andina RadomiroTomic Gabriela Mistral Ministro Hales EI Abra Anglo American 2022 155.3 2021 17.5 2023 EI Abra Anglo American 135-142 2022 144.6 Codelco 2022 2015 33.8 4-5 2021 2024 Codelco 2024 18911553-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%0200400600800100012001400160018002000铜矿产量（千吨）同比资料来源：Codelco 公司 公告，首创证 券 El Teniente 1904+Chuquicamata 1915+Salvador 1959+Andina 1970+Radomiro Tomic 1998 Gabriela Mistral 2008 Ministro Hales 2013 40 2032 50%Codelco 2024 0.60%0.65%0.70%0.75%0.80%0.85%0.90%80100120140160180200220C1 现金成本（美分/磅）铜矿品位（右）资料来源：Codelco 公司 公告，首创 证 券 1 El Teniente Diamante Andes Norte 2023 Andesita20242 Rajo Inca 2023 47 3 Radomiro Tomic 4 Andina 1.5/100 Katanga Mutanda Collahuasi Antamina Antapaccay Lomas Bayas 2022 6 83%Kazzinc Mount Isa Matagami 2022 105.8 11.5%2023-25 104 3 106 104.5 Katanga 2023-24 205 15kt 25 5kt 2025+240-270kt 25kt 2023-24 5 资料 来源：嘉能 可公司 公告，首创证 券145.4105.8104 3106104.5-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0204060801001201401601802014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E铜矿产量（万吨）同比 铜产量（千吨）2021 2022Katanga 75%264.4 220.1Mutanda 95%6.3 33.3Collahuasi 44%277.2 251.1Antamina 33.75%150 152.5Antapaccay 100%170.8 151Lomas Bayas 100%64.3 72.6 263 177.4 1196 1058 100 100 100 资料来源：嘉能 可公 司 公告，首创证 券Collahuasi 17.5/44%Mutanda 22/20/2.3/Antapaccay district 30/Polymet 4.5/El Pachon 35/MARA YamanaGold 56.25%+43.75%Yamana Gold 25 100%MARA 540 740 11.05 28 Collahuasi 44%Buenavista 30 Toquepala Cuajone 10 2022 89.5 2029 110 2030 2032 164 160 89 94 103 102 111 107 113 112 138 152 164-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%020406080100120140160180铜矿产量（万吨）同比资料来源：SCC 公 司公 告，首创 证券 kt 2021 2022 La Caridad 103 89Buenavista 341 339SXEW La Caridad 25 23SXEW Buenavista 82 93IMMSA unit 9 9 Toquepala 204 175Cuajone 169 140SXEW Toquepala 26 27 958 895 2022 89.5 2029 110 2030 2032 164 160 资料 来源：SCC公 司公 告，首创 证券 2022-2026 Pilares 2022 3.5 Buenavista Zinc 2023 2 10 El Pilar SX-EW 2025 3.6Tia Maria SX-EW 2026 12 2030-2032 Los Chancas 2030 13 7.5 El Arco 2030 19 105 Michiquillay SX-EW 2032 22.5 16-2022 87.7 29 40%-资料 来源：紫金 矿业 公 司公 告，首创 证券 2022 72%128 92 100%111 111 100%86 86 63%93 59 100%111 111 44.98%150 150 51%44 23 55%17 9 100%12 12 50.1%115 58 10 8877 718 72.778.780 90 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0102030405060708090100铜矿产量（万吨，不含 卡莫 阿权 益）同比 44.98%2022 87.7 2023 95 2025 117 10.1%1-2023 2 45/500/50 2024 10 62/2022 33.35 2023 43 2 2025 35/2 60 2022 11.5 23 15.2 3-+2025 30/2022 Bor Timok 9.3 11.1 4 Kharmagtai 20227 Q4 5 110 资料 来源：紫金 矿业公 司公告，首创 证券10.633.34345600%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0102030405060702021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E卡莫阿铜矿产量（万吨）同比 3 5 100 Cobre Panama Kansanshi Sentinel 2022 77.6 5%Cobre Panama Kansanshi Sentinel 35 14.6 24.2 2023-25 35-38 37-40 37-40 2023-25 80 2022 77.6 23-25 80 77.677-8476.5-83.577.5-86.5-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%01020304050607080902014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E铜矿产量（万吨）同比资料来源：第一 量子 公 司公告，首创 证券 wt 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025ECobre Panama 33.1 35 35-38 37-40 37-40Kansanshi 20.2 14.6 13-15 13-15 14-18Sentinel 23.3 24.2 26-28 24.5-26.5 24.5-26.5 5 3.8 3 2 2 81.6 77.6 77-84 76.5-83.5 77.5-86.5 3 5 100 100 2022 77.6 1 Cobre Panam CP100 Expansion 23 40wt 22 35wt 2 Kansanshi S3 Expansion 25H2 25wt 22 14.6wt 3 Las Cruces Underground 4.5wt 23 22 1wt 资料 来源：第一 量子 公 司公 告，首创 证券 1 Taca Taca 24 22.7wt 2 Haquira3 La Granja 55%Los Bronces EI Soldado Collahuasi Quellaveco 2022 66.45 2.7%Quellaveco Quellaveco 2022 7 2022 10.2wt 2023 23 31-35wt 33wt 30wt 22wt Quellaveco 2024 100 1 Collahuasi 5th Ball Mill 2023 3.4wt 44%1.5wt 2 Collahuasi 2025-28 4.5-11.4wt 44%2-5wt 3 Collahuasi expansion 2030 22.7wt 44%10wt 4 Sakatti 10wt 资料来源：英美 资源公 司公告，首创 证券64.7 66.5 84-9391-10084-93-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0204060801001202014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E铜矿产量（万吨）同比 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025ELos Bronces 50.10%327.7 27 0.9530-580 550-600 530-580 El Soldado 50.10%42.3 40.2Collahuasi 44%277.2 251.1Quellaveco 60%0 102.3 310-350 360-400 310-350 647.2 664.5 840-930 910-1000 840-930 4 Los Pelambres Centinela Antucoya Zaldivar 70 2022 64.62wt 2023 67-71wt 70 90 2023 Los Pelambres 2023 4-5+4wt 10-11+7wt 15 6wt 2025+Centinela+12wt 5wt Los Pelambres 2025+3.5wt Centinela 90wt 2030+Encierro Cachorro Zald var 64.6 67-71-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%01020304050607080902014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E铜矿产量（万吨）同比资料来源：安托 法加斯 塔公司 公告，首创 证 券 KGHM Polska M ied KGHM International Ltd.Sierra Gorda S.C.M.2022 54 73.3 2023 52.6 71.8 KGHM 2023 1 Sierra Gorda Oxide 3 2 Victoria 1.8wt 1.6wt 3 Ajax 5.3wt 114 资料来源：KGHM 公司公 告，首 创证券567540526-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%01002003004005006002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E铜矿产量（千吨）Oyu Tolgo 2022 52.1wt Oyu Tolgoi 2011 2022 12.95wt 2023 Q1 2024 101 Oyu Tolgoi2 Kennecott 1 2026 2 2032,2026-32 100 3 2040 2032-40150 2023 Lower Commercial Skarn(LCS)3 2027 3 Resolution Copper 10 25%4 Winu 5 Nuton 80%25%-35%Oyu Tolgoi 2022 12.952023-2027 342028-2036 50 35 29 2022 Oyu Tolgoi 33.52%2023 66%2022 12.95 4.34 Escondida 30%65-71-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010203040506070802014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E铜矿产量（万吨）资料来源：力拓 公司公 告，首 创证券 kt 2021 2022Oyu Tolgoi 66%5.5 4.3Escondida 30%28 29.9Kennecott 100%15.9 17.9 49.4 52.1 Norilsk division Kola Trans baikaldivision 2022 41.7 2023 41.7-44.1 South Cluster 2027 2 1.3 Talnakh 3 TOF-3 800/1800/4-7%1.9 2023-2024 Norilsk 2026-27 1800/South Cluster 49.948.740.743.341.7-44.1-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%01020304050602014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E铜矿产量（万吨）同比资料来源：Nornickel 公 司公告，首创 证券 Aktogay Bozshakol East Region&Bozymchak 2022 38 27%Aktogay Aktogay 2500 5000 2021 2022 22.3 9.3 2022-2027 8/2028 6/KAZ 2023 2027 Baimskaya 2027 2-6 32 7-11 28 24 20 5-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%05101520253035402014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022铜矿产量（万吨）同比资料来源：KAZ公 司公 告，首创 证券 NPM(80%)KFM(71.25%)+TFM(80%)2022 TFM 25.43 2023 29-33 KFM 2023 7-9 2022 NPM(80%)2.27 2023 2.4-2.7 2022 25.43 13.04 12 2023 KFM 2023 Q2 9+3 TFM 20 1.7 2023 23.3 27.7 38.4-44.7-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0510152025303540452014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E铜矿产量（万吨）同比资料来源：洛阳 钼业 公 司公告，首创 证券 Highland Valley Antamina Carmen de Andacollo Quebrada Blanca 2022 27 Quebrada Blanca QB2 2023 Q1 15-18 2024-26 28.5-31.5 2024 2022 2027 150 Teck QB2 2027 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024-26EHighland Valley 100%11.9 13.1 11.9 11-11.8 12-16.5Antamina 22.5%8.6 10 10.2 9-9.7 9-10Carmen de Andacollo 90%5.8 4.5 4.0 4-5 5-6Quebrada Blanca 60%1.3 1.2 1.0 15-18 28.5-31.5 27.6 28.7 27.1 39-44.5 54.5-64 Antamina 22.5%100%资料来源：TECK 公司 公 告，首 创证 券27.139-44.554.5-64-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%010203040506070铜矿产量（万吨）同比 Quebrada Blanca QB2 2023 Q1 15-18 2024-26 28.5-31.5 2024 2022 2027 150 Teck QB2 2027 2023-28 1 San Nicol s 50%50%6.3 2024 2027 2 Quebrada Blanca Mill Expansion QBME 60%50%QB 14 2027 3 Zafranal 80%13.3 2023H2 SEIA 2024 2027-28 4 NorthMet 50%-PGM 4.1 2027 5 Highland Valley Copper 2040 HVC2040 2040 22 12 14 2027 2029-33 6 Galore Creek 50%23H2 100%21.5 2029 7 QB 18%2034+8 Nueva Uni n 50%:100%26.3 9 NorthMet(50%)12.4 10 Schaft Creek 75%100%16.1 资料来源：Teck 公司公 告，首 创证券 Salobo Sossego Sudbury V oi s e y s Bay Thompson 2018 2022 25.3 14.7%Sossego Salobo 2018 2019 Sossego 2020 2021 Salobo Sudbury V ALE 2023 2030 90 资料来源：VALE 公司公 告，首 创证券 2021 2022Salobo 144.6 127.8Sossego 81.8 43.2Sudbury 46.2 59.2Voiseys Bay 20.2 10.8Thompson 0.4 5.3 3.6 6.8 296.8 253.145.325.333.5-3739-4290-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0102030405060708090100铜矿产量（万吨）同比 2023 2023 33.5-37 2026 39-42 2030 90 V ALE 2023 2030 90 资料 来源：VALE 公司 公 告，首 创证券Copper Cliff Complex South Mine Project Copper Cliff 1.3 1Salobo III 2022 2024Q1 3-4/Voisey s Bay Mine Expansion VBME Reid Brook Eastern Deeps Ovoid 2021Q2 Reid Brook 2024 Eastern Deeps 2026 2 4.5 0.6 South Hub Extension 预计2025年+，8/Copper Cliff mine Pit CCM Sudbury 2026-2027 0.7-0.9 1.2-1.5Alem o：预计2027年+，6/Creighton P5 2027-2029 1.7-2 2-2.4 Vitcto 2028 2 0.5 North Hub 预计2028年+，7-10/Hu u 80%1760 3100 30-35/2030 Las Bambas 62.5%Kinsevere 100%Las Bambas 2015 2017 45.4 2022 25.5 50 2022 2020 2023 Las Basmas 26.5-30.5 Kinsevere 4-4.8 2025 15 2025 15Las Bambas 2023H2 Chalcobamba 38-40/Kinsevere Expansion Project(KEP)2022 2023 2024 2025 8 2022 4.9 2023 4-4.8 Izok Lake High Lake 45.4 25.5 26.5-30.58.0 4.94.4-4.801020304050602012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023ELas Bambas KinsecereMMG 资料 来源：MMG 公 司公告，首创 证券 Candelaria Chapada Neves-Corvo Eagle Zinkgruvan 2022 25 2023-25 23.6-26 25.6-28 23.8-26.2 Caserones Caserones 51%2022 12.4 Lundin 2025 50%25 23.6-2625.6-2823.8-26.2-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0510152025302014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E铜矿产量（万吨）同比资料 来源：Lundin 公司 公告，首创 证 券铜矿产量（kt）国家 权益 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025ECandelaria 80%152 152 145-155 165-175 150-160Chapada 100%52 46 43-48 43-48 45-50Neves-Corvo 100%38 32 33-38 35-40 35-40Eagle 100%18 16 12-15 9-12 5-8Zinkgruvan 100%3 4 3-4 4-5 3-4合计 263 250 236-260 256-280 238-262 Caserones 51%2022 12.4 2014 Candelaria 160%175%Lundin 2025 50%50%Caserones Josemar a：40%13 Candelaria：CUGEP 2 Alcaparrosa 0.5 Chapada：Chapada Sa va 资料 来源：Lundin 公司 公告，首创 证 券 Lumwana 100%Jabal Sayid 50%Zald var 50%2022 4.4 20 2023 4.2-4.7 Reko Diq 2028 Reko Diq：50%2024 2028 Lumwana Super Pit 2022 Q4 2080 资料来源：巴里 克公司 公告，首创证 券-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%05101520252014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E铜矿产量（万吨）同比 2021 2022 2023ELumwana 100%242 267 260 290 50%97 98 100 110 Jabal Sayid 50%76 75 65 75 415 440 420 470 Newcrest Newmont 2023 Newmont Newcrest Newmont 23 95-105 24 85-98 25 26 45-55 27 55-65 7Newcrest 2023-27 2030 18 2022 4 Newmont+Newcrest 2027 资料来源：Newmont、Newcrest 公司 公告，首创证 券Newcrest 13.714.5-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0246810121416Newcrest 铜矿产量（万吨）3.84.54.12.3 2.32.7-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%0123456Newmont 铜矿产量（万吨）Newmont Constancia+Pampacancha Labor+777 2022 10.4 777 2022 6 2023-25 10-12.8 11.6-14.5 10.1-13.1 Constancia 22 8.9 23-28 10.4/12/10.7/9.5/9.1/10.6 Hudbay 2022 10 30 Copper World Complex 8.6Mason 100%11.2 资料来源：Hudbay 公司 公告，首创 证 券9.910.411.413.111.6-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%024681012141618202015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E铜矿产量（万吨）同比 /6 12 6 12 A 300 20%5%20%-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%
报告吧