20230509_东方证券_商业贸易行业证券研究报告：看好跨境电商行业低基数下业绩反弹AI驱动下降本增效_21页.pdf

|印尼 物流 2 0 2 0 报告A CV-L o g i s t i cs-S e ct o r-R e s e a r ch.p d f 3 2023 1 2015 20%2 20 21 22 2021 2022 10%3 2023 3 2022 2023 1 23 3 2021 2022 2 4 22 10 23 2 5 2023 3 3 14.8%22 14.3%2 3 23 2022 11.7%2021 28.3%2022 2023 1 2 3P 3 AI 2023 1(002803)(002315)(300592)(600415)2-SW(09988)-SW(09888)(00700)-W(01024)-SW(09618)3(300785)(301110)(301171)(605168)(300058)(600556)AIGC/2023 05 09 021-63325888*6128 S0860517020003 BQP120 S0860520020003 BQJ931 021-63325888*6065 S0860521050003 AI 2023-04-27 2023 3 2023-04-18 AI AIGC 2023-04-09 s AI AI 2 1 23.5 2 2023.7 2.1.7 2.2.9 3.13 3.1 AI.13 3.2+.14 3.3 AI.16.17.18 XVEVxOmRsRmNrPsRtOqPqR6M8Q6MoMrRoMtQkPqQrMeRpOqQ9PpOmMuOtRsPvPqRqN AI 3 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.6 6 SEA GMV.6 7 Goto GMV.6 8 Zalando GMV.7 9 ASOS.7 10.8 11.8 12 SCFI.8 13.9 14.9 15.9 16.10 17.10 18.10 19.10 20 Shein.11 21 Temu.11 22 1P 3P.11 23 3P.11 24 SEA GMV.12 25 Goto GMV.12 26.12 27.13 28.13 29.13 30.13 31 AI.14 32.14 33.14 34.16 AI 4 35.16 36“”.17 37.17 1.15 AI 5 1 23 20 21 22 emarketer 2015 20%2020 2021 2022 10%1 2 eMarketer eMarketer 5 2022 2022Q3 15%1%20Q2-21Q1 53%/50%/45%/47%2021Q2 15%2022Q3 10.6%/8.9%3 4 00.050.10.150.20.250.3010002000300040005000600070002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy00.050.10.150.20.252015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%2019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/12-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/12 yoy yoy AI 6 2022Q4 2020Q2 13.8%2020Q3 11.0%2020Q4 2022Q1 10.8%13.0%2022Q2 Q4 2022Q4 11%2021Q4 1.4pct 2020Q3 3 2019 5 2022 SEA shopee GMV 2020Q1-2021Q3 100%SEA GMV 2022 2022Q3 Q4 14%/-1%TOP2 tokopedia Goto GMV 6 SEA GMV 7 Goto GMV 22 Q4 Zalando ASOS 2021 2022 Zalando 2022Q1-Q4 GMV 0%/0%/7%/5%ASOS 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0510152025SEA GMV yoy-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0100002000030000400005000060000700008000021Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1Goto GMV yoy AI 7 2021Q4-2022Q3-1%/2%/0%/-24%ASOS 2022Q4 46%8 Zalando GMV 9 ASOS 3 2023 2022 2023 2 2023 2023 2023 2023 2.1 2022 10 2023 2 3 2021 2022 2022 2 4 6.1%3.5%2022Q4 10-12-0.4%/-9.0%/-10.5%2023 2 5 2023 3 3 14.8%22 14.3%3 3.4%/35.4%/18.8%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01234519Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4Zalando GMV yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%020040060080010001200140016001Q20192Q20193Q20194Q20191Q20202Q20203Q20204Q20201Q20212Q20213Q20214Q20211Q20222Q20223Q20224Q2022ASOS yoy AI 8 10 wind 2021-02 11 wind 2021-02 2021 2022 SCFI 2020Q3 2021 5 2022 23.1%12 SCFI wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01000200030004000500060002018/012018/032018/052018/082018/102018/122019/032019/052019/082019/102020/012020/032020/062020/082020/102020/122021/032021/052021/072021/102021/122022/032022/052022/072022/092022/122023/03SCFI AI 9 2022 2023 2022 1.55 11.7%2021 28.3%2022 24.0 6.5%2022 2023 13 14 2.2 41 207 666 2021 37.3 32.6%25.1%yoy+2.9pct 15 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.00.51.01.52.02.52019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82019 2020 2021 2022 yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021()GDP AI 10 WITS 30.6%/36.4%/44.9%/23.7%38.3%/59.2%/42.9%/35.1%47.1%/31.7%/47.0%/24.7%16 17 WITS WITS 18 19 WITS WITS 1 Shein 2022 GMV 300 2 Temu 2022 9 0%10%20%30%40%50%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0%10%20%30%40%50%0%10%20%30%40%share AI 11 2022 10 IOS APP 20 Shein 21 Temu 3P 1 1P 1P 2 3P 1P 3P 2018-2022 3P 1P 2023Q1 3P 59%3 3P 3P 4 listing 1P 3P 1P 22 1P 3P 23 3P marketplace pulse 0%50%100%150%200%250%0501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021 2022Shein GMV yoy0100200300400()()-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q13P yoy 1P yoy48%50%52%54%56%58%60%19Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q13P AI 12 Shopee Tokopedia 2 SEA shopee GMV 2022 2022Q3 Q4 14%/-1%Goto Tokopedia GMV SEA 2022Q3 Q4 15%/13%23Q1-4%2023 24 SEA GMV 25 Goto GMV 2020 UPU 2IPD 40 91 88 26 UPU-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0510152025SEA GMV yoy-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0100002000030000400005000060000700008000021Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1Goto GMV yoy020406080100120 2IPD AI 13 3 3.1 AI Made-in-C 26 B Made-in-C 2022 23Q1 0%/-1%23%/20%27 28 1 Saas+Saas 2022 80.2%/20.5%2018 6.2%2022 20.5%29 30-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05001000150020002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy0%50%100%150%200%0501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 0100020003000400050000500010000150002000025000300002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy AI 14 2 AI Saas 2023Q1 24374 yoy+1819 2023 4 25 AI IP AI AI 1 2 3 AI Saas 31 AI 3.2+2021 2021 2021 7 32 33 00.10.20.30.40.50.00200.00400.00600.00800.001,000.001,200.001,400.001,600.00 yoy-80.00-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00 AI 15 1 2023 4 24 2019-2022 1.75/3.64/2.16/2.76 2019-2023 1.41/1.70/2.04/2.51/2.90 2022Q4 2023Q1 47.4%119.2%3P 2 7 2022 1 2022 98 3 2021 SKU 2022 SKU 338 327.84 1 2021 2022/39,858.39 327.22 121.81 101,379.21 882.43 114.89 35,786.04 308.11 116.15 76,142.75 750.13 101.51 27,847.90 234.29 118.86 61,719.17 587.4 105.07 22,655.45 228.83 99 51,923.20 642.27 80.84 20,946.96 222.08 94.32 42,212.47 505.96 83.43 3C 16,860.76 151.47 111.31 43,199.30 380.55 113.52 10,946.54 122.1 89.65 23,212.54 293.49 79.09 20,378.72 175.02 116.44 34,113.30 388.7 87.76 195,280.74 1,769.13 110.38 433,901.94 4,430.93 97.93 AI 16 3.3 AI AI Meta Google Line YouTube Instagram TikTok B2C 2023Q1 14.4%64.3%1 AIGC AIGC AIGC 2023 1 ChatGPT API 3 a 1W+b 10W+1000 c 150W 10 d 7W+NLP 15W+e 2W+50 34 35 2 AI 2017 2023Q1 2023Q1 0%10%20%30%40%50%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01002003004005006002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy AI 17 36 37 AI 2023 1(002803)(002315)(300592)(600415)2-SW(09988)-SW(09888)(00700)-W(01024)-SW(09618)3(300785)(301110)(301171)(605168)(300058)(600556)AI 18 AIGC AI 3 AI 19 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告