20230605_国盛证券_建筑装饰行业证券研究报告：坚守大主线掘金顺周期_34页.pdf
|2023 06 05 6%5%3%1 2+ROE 2023 PE/PB 6.60/0.63 10 36%/21%PEG 1+1 2 3+1 2 3 S0680518030004 S0680518010003 S0680519070003 S0680518010002 1 2023-05-28 2 2023-05-21 3 2023-05-20 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 601390.SH 1.26 1.45 1.63 1.82 6.23 5.44 4.84 4.32 601800.SH 1.18 1.31 1.47 1.63 8.83 7.95 7.10 6.40 601186.SH 1.96 2.21 2.45 2.72 5.20 4.63 4.17 3.76 600970.SH 0.83 1.09 1.27 1.46 15.09 11.47 9.90 8.56 000928.SZ-0.49 0.59 0.68 0.77 18.78 15.52 13.41 11.97 601117.SH 0.89 1.09 1.30 1.53 9.84 8.00 6.70 5.71 600039.SH 1.80 2.25 2.78 3.39 8.04 6.42 5.21 4.27 600502.SH 0.80 0.98 1.18 1.41 7.14 5.88 4.88 4.06 Wind*Wind-32%-16%0%16%32%2022-06 2022-09 2023-02 2023-05 300 2023 06 05 P.2 1.4 2.5 2.1.5 2.2.6 2.3.6%.6 2.4.8 2.5.9 2.6.10 3.11 3.1.11 3.2.ROE.11 3.2.1.11 3.2.2.ROE.13 3.2.3.16 3.3.17 4.19 4.1.19 4.2.21 4.3.23 5.25 6.27 6.1.27 6.2.REITs.27 6.3.28 6.4.29 6.5.29 6.6.30 6.7.31 6.8.32 7.33 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.6 5.7 6.7 7 2023 1-4.7 8.7 9.7 10.7 11.8 12.8 XVBYzQrMpMpOsMpMqNoRnM7N9RaQtRpPnPoNkPmMtNlOnNqN6MpOsMxNtQnPuOtQpO 2023 06 05 P.3 13.8 14.9 15.9 16.10 17.10 18.10 19 2023.11 20.12 21.12 22.13 23.13 24 ROE.14 25.15 26.15 27.15 28.16 29.16 30.16 31 PE-TTM.17 32 PB-MRQ.17 33.18 34.18 35+.18 36 16-24%.19 37.20 38 2020.20 39.21 40.21 41 2013-2021.22 42.22 43.22 44.23 45.23 46.24 47 CR5.24 48.24 49.26 2023 06 05 P.4 1.1 2 2023+1 PB0.7X 2023 PB0.7X PB0.6X PB1.0X PB0.7X PB0.9X 2 PE11X PE16X PE18X 3 PE6X PE6X PE8.5X PE15.5X PE22X PE13X PE8.9X 2023 06 05 P.5 2.2.1.4 4 1.22 2844 4 7188 734 1.14 1.27 1/1255/1156 601/842 a b 2/1099/1280/6669 849/3868/4017 9 4 6166 1920 45%1 Wind 2 Wind 时间单月新增社融新增人民币贷款新增委托贷款新增外币贷款新增信托贷款新增未贴现银行承兑汇票企业债券融资非金融企业境内股票融资政府债券2022-04 9327 3616-2-760-615-2557 3652 1166 39122022-05 28415 18230-132-240-619-1068 366 292 105822022-06 51926 30540-380-291-828 1066 2346 589 162162022-07 7785 4088 89-1137-398-2744 960 1437 39982022-08 24712 13344 1755-826-472 3486 1512 1251 30452022-09 35411 25686 1508-713-191 132 345 1022 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17 26 4 13 6 14 17 8 22 24 8 22 8 24 2023 9 9 10 G20 2023 9 9 10 G20 9 23 10 8 2022 19 2023 9 23 10 8 3.2.ROE 3.2.1.2022 2023Q1 2022/8.4%/7.7%2023 Q1 7.1%/10.7%Q1 2023 2023 06 05 P.12 20 Wind 21 Wind 2022 2023Q1 2022 1624 2021 1105-1427 2021 1100 2022 1 2 3 2023Q1 11.5619.1815.3416.48-7.2018.2323.4114.0554.2415.056.840.5216.008.449.501.737.13-20-1001020304050602019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q1%)11.885.3115.5417.30-20.764.2714.9911.8162.9316.985.02-8.1116.2212.078.14-4.1910.69-30-20-100102030405060702019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q1%2023 06 05 P.13 22 Wind 23 Wind 3.2.2.ROE 2023 2022 ROE ROE 2013-2022 ROE PPP ROE 9048007641,9105181,624050010001500200025002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1,665-1,815-1,976-1,728-2,528-1,427-3000-2500-2000-1500-1000-50002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 06 05 P.14 24 ROE Wind 1 2 3 4 2013 PPP 1 PPP BOT BOT 2022 BOT 10%16 pct 5 2 REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 归母净利率 权益乘数 总资产周转率2013 13.88%2.37%6.43 0.912014 13.29%2.40%6.49 0.852015 12.61%2.61%6.07 0.792016 11.65%2.69%5.91 0.732017 12.00%2.85%5.92 0.712018 11.39%2.80%5.92 0.692019 11.15%2.72%5.85 0.702020 10.17%2.50%5.75 0.712021 10.33%2.46%5.74 0.732022 10.15%2.43%5.76 0.73时间 ROE-平均杜邦拆解 2023 06 05 P.15 25 BOT 2017 1,891 859 693 339 2018 1,523 459 985 80 2019 2,004 277 1,178 548 2020 1,769 481 1,003 285 2021 2,181 564 564 1,053 2022 2,116 214 789 1,113 2017-2021 PPP 2017 2021 2017 2022 1 2 PPP BOT 3 26 Wind 27 Wind ROE 2015 79%2022 74%ROE 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 29 49 47 83 22 15 56 51 110 65 88 79 332 120 222 310 131 436 184 140 176 280 176 182-435 103-342 203 144 38 56 192 92 430 156 308 427 91 59 139-126 4 254 54 400 401-73 5612017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 17 32 32 69-9-42-76-153-35-137-98-411 8-274-180-321-644-408 1 23 77 157 51 116-891-225-540-324-181-76-583-368-630-152-308-148-29-412-598-918-655-462-113-438-102-102-684 5 2023 06 05 P.16 ROE 28 Wind 3.2.3.85%62%56%8.5 10.0 2.5 602 1.6 2023 Q1 103%29 2021 2022 22Q1 23Q1 2021 2022 22Q1 23Q1 1.6%2.9%2.2%37.2%95.3%-17.0%2.0%-8.0%54.7%84.9%7.0%18.0%12.4%10.0%67.5%7.8%-2.7%2.4%5.0%61.6%8.5%12.5%10.4%53.0%9.1%436.9%18.3%152.0%9.2%56.3%3.3%8.6%5.9%18.4%9.8%151.8%28.8%80.1%30.0%31.9%18.7%6.3%12.3%16.1%0.6%19.0%21.1%20.0%5.0%5.5%Wind 30 2021 2022 2022Q1 2023Q1/20.38 18.04 7.65 6.53 8.47 7.11 20.62 3.78 2.30 9.96 276.72 184.0 45.12 40.61 2.53 509.79 515.1 88 226.26 1.55 70%71%72%73%74%75%76%77%78%79%80%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 06 05 P.17 3.3 PB0.59X 2023 PB0.65X PB0.68X PB0.74X PB0.87X 6 2 PE/PB 6.60/0.63 10 36%/21%PEG 1 31 PE-TTM Wind 32 PB-MRQ Wind 2023 Q1 0.76%22Q4 0.22 pct 1.00%22Q4 0.44 pct 0.82%22Q4 0.09 pct 2023Q1 A 2.1%-1.33%05101520253013-0613-1014-0214-0614-1015-0215-0615-1016-0216-0616-1017-0217-0617-1018-0218-0618-1019-0219-0619-1020-0220-0620-1021-0221-0621-1022-0222-0622-1023-02 PE-TTM 1/4 00.511.522.533.513-0613-1214-0614-1215-0615-1216-0616-1217-0617-1218-0618-1219-0619-1220-0620-1221-0621-1222-0622-12 PB-MRQ 1/4 2023 06 05 P.18 33 Wind 34 Wind 35+Wind 0.87%0.55%0.35%0.35%0.26%0.38%0.28%0.38%0.24%0.31%0.34%0.42%0.65%0.85%0.62%0.56%0.54%0.76%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.9%1.0%18Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1 6.74%2.56%0.79%0.74%1.80%2.98%1.99%1.37%0.67%0.78%0.69%1.47%1.08%1.70%1.50%1.44%1.43%1.00%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%18Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1 2.43%1.04%0.46%0.44%0.63%1.07%0.64%0.59%0.32%0.40%0.40%0.63%0.74%1.03%0.80%0.75%0.73%0.82%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%18Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1+2023 06 05 P.19 4.4 4 16-24 20.4%0.8 2018 1 2 3 36 16-24%Wind 4.1.1 205101520252018-01 2018-07 2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 2021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01:16-24:16-24 2023 06 05 P.20+8-10 2010 2021-2022 37 38 2020 2020Q1 22.00%2020Q4 5.01%;2022Q1 5.99%2020Q4 29.99%2021Q1 4.88%2021Q3 2.22%2022Q1 4.99%2021Q4 9.39%2022Q1 7.04%2020Q3 29.99%2022Q3 2.21%2020Q1 5.10%;2020Q1 5.30%2020Q3*ST 29.99%46133113810204060801001201402019 2020 2021 2022 2023 06 05 P.21 4.2.2021 4090 8 2013-2021 14%GDP 39 40 2014 2014 2021 7021 9.5%3228 16.4%13.52%78.93%CR5 2021 3%1399158618002065237728113225358640900%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%0500100015002000250030003500400045002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021,17.4%,10.1%,9.0%,8.9%,6.5%,5.5%,4.6%,4.5%,4.1%,2.7%,2.3%,24.4%2023 06 05 P.22 41 2013-2021 42 2021 Wind 2021 1080/713/367 17.4%/9.0%26.4%CR4 2.6%73%43 2005 11 2019 4 2000 2019 2009 1 2011 4 2015 5 2019 11 2022 11 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%0204060801001201402015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 CR5 2023 06 05 P.23 44 Wind 4.3.2022 10445 17.4%10.3%2 pct 2021 2035 2025 1.4 2022-2025 CAGR 10.3%15%15%2035 2.0 2022-2035 CAGR 5.1%25%40%45,1044,97%,10.58,0.98%,7.14,0.66%,5.88,0.54%,5.12,0.47%,4.76,0.44%,2.07,0.19%,36,3%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%0200040006000800010000120002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 06 05 P.24 2022 10445 663.77 CR5 6.4%/3.3%/1.1%/1.1%/0.6%/0.2%46 47 CR5 2022 2023 3 2023 5 29 22%3 15%48 Wind 01002003004005006007002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022CR5CR570901101301501701902102022-01-04 2022-03-04 2022-05-04 2022-07-04 2022-09-04 2022-11-04 2023-01-04 2023-03-04 2023-05-04 2023 06 05 P.25 5.+2023+1 PB0.7X 2023 PB0.7X PB0.6X PB1.0X PB0.7X PB0.9X 2 PE11X PE16X PE18X 3 PE6X PE6X PE8.5X PE15.5X PE22X PE13X PE8.9X 2023 06 05 P.26 49 EPS PE PB 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 6.08 1.21 1.34 1.48 1.61 5.0 4.5 4.1 3.8 0.65 7.87 1.26 1.45 1.63 1.82 6.2 5.4 4.8 4.3 0.74 10.21 1.96 2.21 2.45 2.72 5.2 4.6 4.2 3.8 0.59 10.43 1.18 1.31 1.47 1.63 8.8 8.0 7.1 6.4 0.68 8.72 0.89 1.09 1.30 1.53 9.8 8.0 6.7 5.7 0.99 2.41 0.19 0.22 0.26 0.29 12.9 11.0 9.4 8.2 1.07 4.03 0.50 0.58 0.68 0.77 8.1 6.9 6.0 5.3 0.87 6.32 0.66 0.78 0.91 1.04 9.5 8.1 7.0 6.1 0.91 9.05 1.58 1.82 2.09 2.38 5.7 5.0 4.3 3.8 0.79 5.74 0.80 0.98 1.18 1.41 7.1 5.9 4.9 4.1 1.07 2.65 0.15 0.35 0.38 0.42 17.4 7.6 6.9 6.3 0.78 14.48 1.80 2.25 2.78 3.39 8.0 6.4 5.2 4.3 2.02 6.94 1.60 1.82 2.15 2.54 4.3 3.8 3.2 2.7 0.83 5.98 0.47 0.54 0.61 0.71 12.7 11.1 9.8 8.4 0.94 9.51 1.00 1.13 1.27 1.44 9.5 8.4 7.5 6.6 1.45 14.65 0.57 0.89 1.09 1.32 25.6 16.4 13.4 11.1 2.19 29.30 1.69 2.25 2.79 3.47 17.4 13.0 10.5 8.5 2.47 3.86 0.35 0.43 0.52 0.61 11.0 8.9 7.4 6.4 0.96 4.78 0.48 0.56 0.66 0.73 10.0 8.5 7.3 6.6 0.99 4.63 0.14 0.30 0.34 0.37 33.3 15.5 13.8 12.5 0.80 8.61-1.79 0.25 0.51 0.61-4.8 34.2 17.0 14.2 31.38 7.97 0.43 0.57 0.73 0.87 18.5 13.9 11.0 9.2 1.40 17.13 0.10 0.70 0.88 1.08 167.5 24.5 19.4 15.9 1.89 26.32 0.88 1.19 1.45 1.48 30.0 22.1 18.2 17.8 1.65 22.37 1.11 1.29 1.55 1.87 20.1 17.3 14.4 12.0 3.78 61.73 1.49 2.65 3.50 4.47 41.3 23.3 17.7 13.8 3.38 16.17 0.18 0.62 0.85 1.02 88.7 26.1 19.1 15.9 3.00 40.80 0.79 1.41 1.90 2.58 51.3 29.0 21.4 15.8 7.58 69.56 2.70 4.07 5.47 7.25 25.8 17.1 12.7 9.6 3.12 32.15 0.95 1.31 1.75 2.29 33.7 24.6 18.4 14.0 3.53 5.44 0.33 0.44 0.58 0.77 16.5 12.4 9.4 7.1 2.24 31.98 1.08 1.55 2.21 2.97 29.5 20.6 14.4 10.8 3.74 9.15 0.38 0.64 0.89 1.16 24.0 14.3 10.3 7.9 3.35 9.35 0.31 0.46 0.60 0.79 30.6 20.4 15.5 11.8 2.85 48.68 0.91 1.29 1.73 2.28 53.6 37.7 28.1 21.4 5.41 12.53 0.83 1.09 1.27 1.46 15.1 11.5 9.9 8.6 1.88 15.33 0.63 0.84 1.01 1.15 24.1 18.2 15.2 13.3 1.99 11.65 0.27 0.38 0.48 0.59 43.2 30.8 24.1 19.7 1.30 9.18 0.49 0.59 0.68 0.77 18.8 15.5 13.4 12.0 1.76 Wind 2023 6 2 EPS Wind EPS 2023 06 05 P.27 6.6.1.4 1.8 15%2013-2022 11.2%2022 584 5.06%2012-2022 15%2012 45.8%2022 59.4%2022 3019 11.3%81%/986/752/400 223%2023Q1 6674 10.2%2022Q1 84%2023Q1 53249 8%2022 4.6 2007 5 2022 30 85%2021 2023 PE 5.4 Wind PE 7-12 2023-2025 358/402/450 14%/12%/12%EPS 1.45/1.63/1.82 PE 5.4/4.8/4.3 PB-lf 0.74 6.2.REITs 16 ENR 250 16 2022 987 14%139 2022 166.46 2022 57%2023 06 05 P.28 REITs 2022 1857.5 71 REITs REITs 50%2022 2023-2025 212/237/263 11%/12%/11%EPS 1.31/1.47/1.63 PE 8.0/7.1/6.4 PB 0.68 6.3.+2015-2021+CAGR 24%2022 2115 12.8%2022 140 80 1000/2019 2022 22%2022 1 7 31 8 2 2 27 1.17 m 3 PBAT PBAT6330 4 60/3/2023 POE 12 2023 06 05 P.29 2025 15%2023-2025 67/79/93 23%/19%/18%EPS 1.09/1.30/1.53 PE 8.0/6.7/5.7 6.4.1-4 1544 78%1-4 Top100 12.8%2022 3.57%59%2022 22%13%10%2022 21%2014 50%2022/8.0%/10.5%0.1 pct/12%/20%6 2 PE ttm/PB lf 4.8/0.65 3.5/0.55 2022 106 20.8%2023 4.6%2023-2025 564/623/674 10.7%/10.4%/8.2%EPS 1.34/1.48/1.61 PE 4.5/4.1/3.8 PB lf 0.65 6.5.2023 06 05 P.30 8+N 8 N PB LF 0.6 REITs 2022+75%/95%/77%/291%2023 2023+2022&2023Q1+50%/132%2023-2025 300/333/369 13%/11%/11%EPS 2.21/2.45/2.72 PE 4.6/4.2/3.8 6.6.Q1 103%2023Q1 226 103%Q1 165
报告吧