20230611_国海证券_机械设备行业工业X射线检测深度报告：核心部件国产化X光工业场景加速渗透_33页.pdf

工业X射线检测深度报告：核心部件国产化，X 光工业场景加速渗透()S()2023 06 11 12 300 1M 3M 12M-0.1%-7.5%5.5%300-4.7%-4.6%-8.1%-0.1889-0.1146-0.04030.03400.10820.1825 3000YCXxOqNpMnMpRpMqNqPrQ7N9R7NnPnNoMpMiNpPpRkPrQtR6MpPvNvPnOrPwMoOqO3 2023/06/09 EPS PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E688301.SH 289.04 8.82 8.16 10.59 51.90 35.44 27.29 688531.SH 154.27 1.20 2.09 3.79 73.96 40.69 Wind Wind 4 X X 2022-2025 X 73.2 2025/2030 X 10.32/36.29 X X X 1:1 X 2025 X 24.5/14.7 X X 90kV 130kV X 2023-2025 X 2023-2025 8.53/12.33/16.56 76.01%/44.55%/34.32%1.66/3.01/4.23 130.93%/81.77%/40.65%X A 5 X X 6 X X X X X 0.05mm 12mm 2016 7 X X X 2021 X 119.0 2026 241.4 X 8X X X X 9 X 2019 3 2018 Bolt 2019-2021 10 13 LG 2021 10 LG LG 19 122 GGII(2023/01)2025 4TWh 60%80%GWh X 600 50%2022-2025 X 73.2 LG GWh 0%20%40%60%80%100%0800160024003200400048002022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 10X/PCB X X 15 X 11 X X X 2D 3D/CT X X X X 3D/CT 2D Wind Prismark 3,064 3,778 4,519 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 65235101002003004005006007002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 PCB 12X X X 13 6000 70 12 X 2022 171 2 1600 X+Model Y Cybertruck/ET5 ES7/+2023 W/-2025-14 X 23 370 10%14%2022 688.7 95.6%25.6%2023 1000 X 2025/2030 X 10.32/36.29 13.4%25.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Wind 2025 2030 2025 2030 2759.3 3521.7 7883.8 9267.5 42%48%22%26%1152.5 1693.4 1720.1 2419.1 20%50%20%50%()230.5 846.7 344.0 1209.56000/7000T(/)2 2 2 29000T(/)4 4 4 4(/)10 10 10 106000/7000T()46.1 169.3 68.8 241.99000T()92.2 338.7 137.6 483.8X 138.3 508.0 206.4 725.7 X 500 500 500 500X 6.91 25.40 10.32 36.29 X 15 X 2021 X 119 X 2026 X 241.4 2021-2026 CAGR 15.2%210.5241.40%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%0501001502002503002018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E YOY X 16 X X 17X X X X 1%X X X X X 18 X X X 19 X X X X X X X X X X 0.1 15m 160kV 80W/180m 300kV 500W/FOD PCBA SMT X 580m 150kV 75W 3C 90110kV 130150kV X 3C X 4001000m 450kV 4500W/X X X 10005000m 450kV 4500W X 20 X 2022 X 130kV X 2023/03 90kV 130kV X 2022H1 X 76.33 70%X 380m 180kV X X 90kV/130kV X 80kV/90kV/110kV/130kV X 90kV/100kV/110kV/130kV/150kV/180kV X 15%0.13m 300kV 160kV 160kV450kV X-WorX X 160kV/225kV X X-WorX X:X-Worx X 4001000m450kV X 225kV Varian COMET Varian COMET X X Varian160320kV X COMET 75450kV X 160350kV X Varian COMET X 10005000m450kV X X X 80kV200kV X 100kV200kV X 30kV350kV X X 21 X 2021 X 7.3 2026 24.8 CAGR 27.7%2025 X 8.0 X X 1-3 2025 16.5 X X X GGII EVTank 20.924.80%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0510152025302018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E YOY X 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GWh 958 1264 1667 2200 GWh 6 6 6 6/25 25 25 25 GWh X 150 150 150 150 6.9 4.6 6.1 8.0 2 2 2 2 7.2 9.5 12.5 16.5 14.0 14.1 18.6 24.5 X 22 X Yole D veloppement 2018 X+4.4 2024 7.8 CAGR 10%X X 2018 22.0%2024 27.7%X 2025 X 4.8 X 1:1 2 2025 X 9.9 2025 X 14.7 1.803.082.604.760510152025302018 2024 CT X-Ray Detectors for Medical,Industrial and Security Applications 2019 Yole Dveloppement EVTank GGII 2018-2024 X X 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GWh 958 1264 1667 2200 GWh X 6 6 6 6/15 15 15 15 GWh X 90 90 90 90 4.1 2.8 3.6 4.8 2 2 2 2 4.3 5.7 7.5 9.9 8.4 8.4 11.1 14.7 23 X X 24 X X IGZO CMOS X 2022Q4 2022 15.49 30.47%6.41 32.49%2018 33.58%2021 20.52%2022 2022 2.39 63.87%2022/57.34%/41.23%2.09/0.42pct 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0246810121416182018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY YOY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Wind-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 25 2022 14.49 93.6%/7.9/3.8/2.3 P D 4000 5.25 36.2%2022 10 CMOS T DI CT 3.2/CMOS 10/CMOS 2000/CT 9900kg/+DR X GE DR X X-DRF,CT-C C X/DSA-X GE CBCT X VJ Group BakerHughes PCB 3.13.84.86.26.87.90.42.43.80.61.72.302468101214162017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 26 X X 2000 X 2022/8-2023/3 500 130kV X X 2020-2022 2.00/3.46/4.85 34.41%/72.77%/40.05%0.21/0.51/0.72 156.97%/137.72%/41.15%2019 33.04%2022 27.23%1.4923.464.850.080.210.510.720%30%60%90%120%150%180%01234562019 2020 2021 2022 YOY YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2019 2020 2021 2022-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2019 2020 2021 2022 Wind 27X X 90%2023 50%2022H1/0.89/0.60/0.35 44.26%/29.69%/17.28%2023/3 90kV 130kV X 225kV 2022H1 X 455 X 250 80kV 110kV 120kV 150kV 2023-2025 X X X 35%95%2022 2023 2024 2025 X 450470 10501150 17001800 23002400 X 100220 400450 600650 700750 X 30%35%60%65%85%90%95%100%X 8000 25000 45000 65000 1 X 11800.00 11800.00 2 2 X 28200.00 28200.00 2 3 11325.00 11325.00 3 4 8675.00 8675.00 60000.00 60000.00 IPO 2023/3 X 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,0002019 2020 2021 2022H1 X 282020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 0.95 1.31 2.10 3.47 4.85 6.55YOY 58%38%60%65%40%35%39%40%38%39%39%39%0.37 1.26 1.31 2.22 3.23 4.52YOY 4%236%53%70%45%40%38%34%30%35%35%35%0.42 0.59 0.75 1.01 1.31 1.71YOY 4%42%27%35%30%30%37%36%33%35%35%35%X 0.05 0.06 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.06 14%41%39%40%40%40%0.16 0.17 0.60 1.7 2.8 3.64YOY 109%6%260%183%65%30%54%58%59%65%70%72%2.00 3.46 4.85 8.53 12.33 16.56YOY 35%73%40%76%45%34%0.78 1.31 1.83 3.64 5.49 7.41 39%38%38%43%45%45%0.21 0.51 0.72 1.66 3.01 4.23YOY 157%138%41%131%82%41%1 SMT 2023-2025 65%/40%/35%39%2 2023-2025 70%/45%/40%35%3 2023-2025 35%/30%/30%4 2023 2023-2025 183%/65%/30%2023-2025 8.53/12.33/16.56 76.01%/44.55%/34.32%1.66/3.01/4.23 130.93%/81.77%/40.65%Wind 29 X X 30 X X X X X 31,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%7 32 R4/28F 518041 0755-83706353 C1 200023 021-61981300 168 25F 100044 010-88576597 33