20230530_平安证券_非银金融行业证券研究报告：股债融资双管齐下券商多渠道夯实资本实力_28页.pdf

2023 5 30*2022 23*20230420*20230301 S1060520040001 BQC673 WANGWEIYI S1060520040002 LIBINGTING S1060122070023 WEIJIWEN ROE 1 2020 2020 2 1 2 3 4 2/28 E P S P/B 202 3-5-29 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 600030 20.35 1.44 1.54 1.69 1.86 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 601995 40.61 1.57 1.81 2.01 2.23 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 WUAZuNmRpMnMtNmPrMsNpO6MdNaQtRmMpNoNfQoOnQlOsRnM8OmMvNMYtPqMxNnNnR 3/28.6.11 2.1.11 2.2.16.23 3.1.23 3.2.25.27 4.1.27 4.2.27 4/28 1.6 2.6 3.8 4.8 5.9 6.9 7.10 8.10 9 2022.10 10 2012.12 11 ROE.12 12.12 13.13 14.13 15 17 IPO.13 16.14 17.14 18 2012-2022.15 19 2012-2022.15 20 2012-2022.15 21 23Q1.15 22 2012-2022 A IPO.16 23 2012-2022.16 24 2012-2022.16 25 2022.17 26 2012-2022.17 27.17 28.18 29 2012-2022 15.18 30.19 31 2012-2022 15.19 32.19 33 2012-2022 15.19 5/28 34.20 35 2023Q1 15.20 36.21 37 2022.21 38.21 39.21 40.22 41.22 42.22 43.22 44.22 45.23 46.24 47 ROE.24 48.26 6/28 2020 1 2016 6 2008/20%/40%6 6 2020 6 2 1 100%120%/100%8%9.6%/100%100%120%/30 100%100%120%/100%2020 35 30%6 12 2023 50%2 2006-2017 2006 5 8/1 3 24 50%2 3 3 20%3 4 30%5 3 ROE 6%6 20 1 20 1/1 10 2 20 90%3,;4 12/36 5 6 2017-2019/1 3 24 50%7/28 2017 2 15 2008 10 9 2018 11 2 3 3 30%3 4 30%5 3 ROE 6%6 20 1 20 1/1 10 2 20 90%3 4 12/36 5 20%6 6 2020-2022 2020 2 14 2020 2/1 3 24 50%2 3 3 30%3 4 30%5 3 ROE 6%6 20 1 20 1/1 35 2 20 80%/20 1 20 1 3 4 6/18 5 30%40%6 12 2023-18/1 3 3 ROE 6%()2 3 50%4 3 ROE 6%5 20 1 20 1/1 35 2 20 80%/20 1 3 4 6/18 6 18 5 30%50%6 12 8/28 1 2023Q1 1.9 2019 209%2023 5 25 15 145 3 2 2%-5%2021 24.1 10.4%2022 11.8 YoY-51.0%5.5%4 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 9.69 8.91%25.53 19.90%5.28 8.07%15.12 13.90%16.83 13.12%16.60 25.36%17.59 11.81%24.12 10.44%11.83 5.55%8.42 5.65%8.29 3.59%6.14 2.88%8.95 12.41%8.02 7.44%7.87 10.35%6.53 9.06%7.22 6.70%7.97 10.49%4.21 4.43%7.91 7.72%3.04 4.05%1.28 1.34%2.76 2.69%1.61 2.14%3.51 3.24%7.31 5.48%-0.41-0.37%23.50 21.71%6.33 4.74%-6.86-6.21%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-03合计场外衍生品期末存量（亿元）场外期权月新增（亿元，右轴）收益互换月新增（亿元，右轴）9/28 0.29 0.31%0.43 0.37%-0.05-0.06%4.81 5.07%10.12 8.69%4.50 5.57%3 2023 4 A 3228 62.2%1.6 2019 57.7%94%6%2019-4.5pct+4.5pct 5 6 Wind Wind ROE 2017 3.3 2022 4.0 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,0002017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-04 86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%2017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-04 10/28 7 8 2022 50 3.9 1 2022 10 4.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 130%120%11.24%12.42%9.6%9 2 022 120%10%120%120%-203.96%17.79%130.53%129.64%4.36 241.25%21.12%293.75%162.85%3.17 240.12%14.10%166.57%129.33%4.54 186.44%17.62%277.32%130.09%4.61 186.58%13.04%213.79%147.26%5.04 264.95%13.39%210.95%151.73%5.15 413.12%15.97%236.62%171.89%3.59 262.43%12.42%354.93%129.89%5.42 222.66%14.91%235.00%141.47%5.27 182.42%11.24%239.71%154.27%4.41 253.08%14.38%218.50%139.09%3.59 342.13%22.55%216.78%157.99%3.28 257.30%10.89%212.12%136.74%1.42 N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.1.03 227.07%15.42%245.78%140.03%4.15 288.31%18.94%139.43%139.10%3.66 220.76%14.85%309.31%162.95%4.29 1 2022 10 2.52.84.4 4.43.53.3 3.33.63.94.14.023344552012201320142015201620172018201920202021202202468101220122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 11/28 273.68%25.32%264.32%174.76%3.25 328.14%30.72%339.85%144.51%3.15 230.11%21.61%457.44%169.27%3.61 247.47%17.71%647.18%139.48%4.11 235.45%15.67%169.05%179.03%5.16 236.37%27.90%456.10%160.89%3.34 325.73%28.14%693.87%180.87%3.36 317.37%24.14%239.35%183.18%3.56 293.85%21.58%180.30%153.94%3.18 252.02%20.64%312.72%154.31%4.37 123.80%16.99%615.81%125.80%3.87 470.10%45.43%1678.14%269.95%1.95 202.91%22.68%274.87%187.32%4.31 195.59%23.32%504.18%178.18%3.42 361.98%32.79%422.55%164.83%1.20 236.77%19.56%154.43%144.43%3.67 160.32%13.80%134.65%176.65%4.10 186.98%18.38%258.45%146.05%4.24 192.35%20.33%160.06%143.66%4.46 492.40%33.68%544.89%230.40%3.06 309.76%46.38%266.29%276.22%3.14 256.84%23.25%226.03%196.40%3.05 220.96%18.79%192.85%158.54%3.28 180.35%23.58%143.41%131.00%4.23 N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.1.16 N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.1.11 262.45%26.20%1068.06%187.57%3.20 360.17%31.18%721.81%184.89%3.81 N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.1.28 412.78%67.87%407.40%220.49%1.64 N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.1.05 279.17%30.75%211.14%169.94%3.38 N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.4.04 II 2022=/2.1 2012-2015 ROE IPO 2015 9 A IPO 2016-2019 2020 12/28 2017 2017 31%YoY+9pct 5 317.7 10 2 012 Wind 11 R OE 12 Wind 12 43 8-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023()0%5%10%15%20%25%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,00020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 ROE 22%20%28%27%22%31%23%31%28%26%16%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 13/28 13 14 Wind Wind IPO II IPO A I PO I PO 3 6 2 2012 IPO 26 17 2 10 1 5 2 2 3 IPO 17 IPO 2.9 2-3 6 2018 18 6 1.4 1.1 17 62.0 31%15 1 7 I PO 2.9 4.9 8.7 50.00 48.52 75.00 5.6 N.A.N.A.150.00 N.A.N.A.1.6 6.6 N.A.44.93 44.93 N.A.2.8 7.1 N.A.110.58 127.15 N.A.2.0 N.A.N.A.70.00 N.A.N.A.4.2 N.A.N.A.42.00 N.A.N.A.3.3 4.5 N.A.28 39.62 N.A.3.6 N.A.N.A.36.45 N.A.N.A.5.2 N.A.N.A.78 N.A.N.A.1.7 3.8 5.0 35 28.05 70 3.2 4.5 N.A.38 71.72 N.A.2.4 N.A.N.A.43.75 N.A.N.A.2.5 N.A.N.A.38.84 N.A.N.A.1.4 2.5 N.A.53.49 81.79 N.A.3.7 N.A.N.A.76.16 N.A.N.A.2.1 N.A.N.A.79.41 N.A.N.A.1.1 N.A.N.A.50.90 N.A.N.A.2 2012 02468101214161820122013201420152016201720182019202020212022IPO 02004006008001,0001,20020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022IPO 14/28 2.9 4.9 6.8 60.3 63.1 72.5 Wind 2020 2012-2022 66 4276.0 37 2233.1 18 1371.5 11 671.5 2020-2022 13 1090.1 6 445 16 1022.7 2012-2020 16 17 Wind Wind 2012-2022 56 64%13%23%23 78%9%13%18 61%11%28%3 6%2018 1 1 2012 1.1 0.8 1.0 02468101214161820122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 02004006008001,0001,20020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 15/28 18 2012-2022 19 2012-2022 Wind Wind 2012-2022 37/78%2020 61%2012-2019 84%2012 18/97%23Q1 6 1-/99.94%20 2012-2022 21 2 3 Q 1 Wind Wind IPO 5 2012-2022 A IPO 565.1 A IPO 50.5%8 1141.4 26.7%5 642.4 75%78%1.5 2 224.0 98%97%0.7 2 148 1.0 64%78%61%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%/1.10.81.00.00.20.40.60.81.01.2增发 配股 可转债平均发行耗时（年）78%84%61%97%96%97%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2012-2022 2012-2019 2020-2022-99.86%99.93%99.98%99.87%99.99%99.99%99.75%99.80%99.85%99.90%99.95%100.00%100.05%国君转债长证转债华安转债财通转债中银转债浙22转债转股率 16/28 22 2012-2022 A I PO 23 2012-2022 Wind Wind 2.2 2015 2020 2012-2022 1.4 IPO+490 24 2012-2022 Wind 2012-2022 90 56 3 34 2022 56 4 2.9 4.7 34 5 3230 3 4 56 5 34 国泰君安国信证券中国银河中信建投中金公司其他上市券商招商证券中信证券海通证券国信证券华泰证券中国银河国泰君安中信建投其他上市券商0200400600800100012001400160005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022债券融资 规模（亿元）股 权 融 资 规 模（IPO+股 权 再 融 资）（亿 元，右）17/28 3.8 7862 633 25 2022 26 2 012-2022 Wind Wind 27 Wind 2015 4 1 2020 2013 2020 3 2020 7209 YoY+133%2022 5321 YoY-38%2019 2013 2873232304.73.801234505,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000上市券商 非上市券 商净 资 产 规 模（亿 元）杠杆倍数（倍，右）02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0500010000150002000025000300002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 18/28 2012-2022 94%2012-2022 CR10 57%3028 2822 2650 28 29 2012-2022 1 5 Wind Wind 2 2012 1 2015 5182 2016 2022 1789 YoY-24%2020 2015 2022 18 2020 5 2022 874 YoY+28%49%92%96%93%CR10 49%CR10 87%CR10 53%1236 1215 11 13 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%2%4%6%8%10%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500广发证券华泰证券中信证券招商证券海通证券国 泰 君 安 证 券银河证券申万宏源 证券光大证券国信证券中信建投 证券中金公司平安证券东方证券兴业证券累计发行规模（亿元）累计发行规模市场份额（右）19/28 30 31 2012-2022 1 5 Wind Wind 3 2012 2015 2018 60%2019 2021 91 1 6 2021 2022 2012-2022 91%9%2012-2022 CR10 61%3298 3171 2406 1411 32 33 2012-2022 1 5 Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,00020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%2%4%6%8%02004006008001,0001,2001,400广发证券中信建投 证券银河证券招商证券申万宏源 证券华泰证券国泰君安 证券国信证券中信证券安信证券兴业证券海通证券东方证券光大证券方正证券累计发行规模（亿元）累计发行规模市场份额（右）01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000201220132014201520162017201820192020202120220%2%4%6%8%10%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500中信证券招商证券国泰君安国信证券广发证券中信建投 证券银河证券华泰证券渤海证券申万宏源 证券光大证券东方证券财通证券平安证券东吴证券累计发行规模（亿元）累计发行规模市场份额（右）20/28 4 2013 2014 2020 1.1 2023Q1 87 51 36 93%7%2023 A B BBB B BB B B C 60%50%40%30%20%2023Q1 1011 998 948 34 35 2 0 2 3 Q 1 1 5 Wind 2013-2016 2017 2018 2019 2022 2.92%3.42%2.27%2013 2.33pct 2.70pct 2.40pct 2%2022 0.17pct 0.44pct 0.06pct 0.28pct 0.43pct 0.08pct 2022 2.80%3.41%2.25%2013 2.42pct 2.49pct 2.33pct 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00020152016201720182019202020212022 0%2%4%6%8%10%02004006008001,0001,200海通证券广发证券华泰证券中信证券银河证券中金公司申 万 宏 源 证 券中泰证券国泰君安 证券中信建投 证券国元证券东吴证券国信证券国金证券长江证券发行数量（只）发行数量市场份额（右）21/28 36 37 2022 Wind Wind 1 1-5 5 2022 1 1-5 5 15%80%5%2014-51pct+48pct+3pct 2022 3.07 2014 1.07 3.08 2.99 5 38 39 Wind Wind 2 3 1-3 3 2020-2022 1-3 59%2020 2022 49%3 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(5,10(1,5(0,11.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.52014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 22/28 40 41 Wind Wind 3 2021 2021 91 1 0.25 91 2022 0.53 0.53 0.48 4 2017 2021 10 1 75.58%2017 28.96pct 42 43 Wind Wind 44 44 0%20%40%60%80%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(5,10(3,5(1,3(0,11.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(0.25,1(0,0.250.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.602014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021/1012 6-12()3-6()1-3()1()23/28 IPO 1 1 6 2 45 1 3.1 1 3 ROE 6%2020 61%2 3 97%2023 30%50%70%3 ROE 24/28 2020 2021 ROE 7.3%7.8%6%2022 ROE 5.3%ROE 6%40%50%46 35 1 3 2 2 3 6%3 1 3 1 2 3 3 3 6%20 A 1 A 20 80%1/20 1 20 1 30%50%70%50%6/18 12 6 6 18 47 R OE 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 6.32%9.49%17.89%22.11%14.40%6.79%11.51%18.18%15.80%9.99%0.75%2.26%7.85%9.89%9.39%8.83%9.64%13.52%14.64%8.88%25/28 6.20%7.76%8.43%12.07%8.67%4.40%7.64%9.84%12.29%8.21%5.42%6.75%8.54%11.05%7.88%5.58%9.51%10.85%11.52%7.54%5.32%7.94%8.61%9.84%7.49%8.84%8.69%14.33%7.93%7.39%5.07%8.48%10.60%10.67%7.23%5.42%6.75%9.78%9.90%6.58%6.66%9.46%10.61%12.71%6.50%4.47%8.63%9.05%8.39%5.98%0.41%5.25%11.07%12.04%5.74%4.36%10.19%10.59%9.21%5.55%2.68%3.66%5.28%6.03%5.32%0.21%1.20%4.74%6.43%5.27%1.76%2.65%2.81%4.50%5.09%5.97%6.44%6.15%6.26%5.03%0.99%6.35%7.58%8.34%5.02%4.05%9.28%10.53%10.68%4.96%0.34%1.04%10.80%7.02%4.81%1.75%5.07%6.61%8.42%4.62%0.66%6.64%6.41%7.27%4.62%5.28%6.48%8.63%9.90%4.17%2.37%4.61%4.85%9.02%4.16%3.95%5.95%8.58%9.38%4.03%4.42%7.81%7.88%8.09%3.99%2.32%6.55%6.74%6.06%3.92%1.78%4.08%5.09%4.72%3.32%6.19%7.41%9.05%10.26%2.93%1.41%5.83%7.31%5.26%2.76%0.84%7.11%6.05%6.58%2.71%1.00%1.73%4.37%6.22%2.28%5.19%6.16%7.44%7.37%1.96%4.81%7.53%9.28%7.47%1.89%2.49%7.06%7.73%9.25%1.61%1.15%3.50%6.18%5.31%1.58%0.54%3.54%4.06%4.16%1.34%1.96%6.63%8.28%9.37%1.28%1.20%5.46%4.97%4.11%1.23%0.66%0.59%0.93%3.78%0.78%3.48%6.78%10.21%9.03%0.17%2.05%1.44%3.62%4.27%-2.68%-3.59%0.83%-3.18%0.68%-3.91%-11.99%4.57%-7.62%1.26%-4.85%2.64%2.53%2.79%2.56%-6.26%-1.09%1.90%1.40%1.75%-7.72%-5.06%2.03%1.96%-3.94%-12.70%Wind 3.2 26/28 1 1 2 2014 2020 2021 2 250 36 3 100 2022 28 250 2 2020 5 3/2/1 100%/70%/50%2020 2021 2022 8 19 25 370 683 874 24%29%49%2022 3.42%2.92%3 60%4 12 200 140%A B BBB B BB B B C 60%50%40%30%20%48 3 1*1 3 2 3 1 1.5 3 250 36 3 100 1 AA+2 40%1 2 2 3 6 4 5 2 A B BBB 27/28 60%B BB B B C 60%50%40%30%20%1 1 50%3 1 5+N 1 7 4.1 4.2 1 2 3 4 :6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2023 4008866338 5023 B 25 1333 26 4 1 B 25