20230514_华创证券_稀土及磁性材料行业证券研究报告：中特估之战略资源稀土资源大国重器_21页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 05 14-2021 12 23 USGS 2022 1.3 4400 33.8%2022 70%2020 2021 000831.SZ 68%26%600259.SH 14%600111.SH 74%80%S0360522120003 S0360522120002%()17 0.00()2,699.37 0.28()2,482.99 0.34%1M 6M 12M-7.0%-11.2%-9.5%-4.4%-19.7%-11.4%-15%-1%12%25%22/05 22/07 22/10 22/12 23/02 23/052022-05-122023-05-12 300 2009 1210.4“”.4.7.7.9.9.10.10.13.13.14.17 WUFUuNnQpMoPrPnOtOoRnM6McMaQtRqQsQnOiNnNmReRqRqN9PmMxPNZrMoNvPrQmN 2009 1210 3 1/.4 2.5 3.5 4 2022.6 5.6 6.7 7.7 8.8 9.9 10 2022.9 11 2022.9 12.10 13 2011.12 14 2020.13 15 2020.13 16 2010.14 17 2017-2022.14 18 2020-2023.15 19 2019-2022.15 20 2019-2021.15 21.15 22 2019-2021 GW.16 23.16 24 2015-2021.16 2009 1210 4 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2.0 2021 12 23 3.0 2021 12 23 47.18%16.10%100%94.49%80%36%1/1988 7 6 131 9 5 31 1 3 8/2009 1210 5 56 67%50%/31.21%20.33%3.9%2 2022 1 3 2009 1210 6”4 2022 1 49200 13010 58499 2 141650 128934 3 3440 3963 4 2700 10604 3610 190850 19150 202000 210000 202000 1 2 5 2009 1210 7 2020-2022 3 2020 6 21 22 23 24 25 1 20000 22000 30000 30000 51000 2 15000 23000 26000 38000 40000 3 12000 21000 21000 32000 36000 4 16000 24000 24000 30000 32000 2020 50%7 1 41.5%2000 5000 2 34%1000 5000 3 10%0 20000 4 100%12000 17000 5 100%2000 8000 0.1%10%-20%2009 1210 8 20%8 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 221 312 650 1082 1400 1800 2300 kg 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.8 1.1 2.3 3.8 4.9 6.3 8.1 2577 2531 2556 2684 2711 2738 2765 EPS 45%50%55%65%70%75%80%kg 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 EPS 0.29 0.32 0.35 0.44 0.47 0.51 0.55 GW 26.8 54.4 47.6 45.0 54.0 64.8 77.8 39%39%39%30%29%28%27%kg 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 15062 14490 14490 14490 14490 14490 14490 46%57%85%90%95%97%99%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%kg 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.35 0.45 0.74 0.85 0.96 1.05 1.15 2.23 3.53 4.83 6.13 7.57 9.30 11.41%58.3%36.6%27.1%23.4%22.8%22.7%Wind EVtank EV sales 2.5-3.5 2020 22 3 2020 66 2022-2023 3%2 2009 1210 9 9 Wind 40 50g-100g 2-4kg USGS 2022 1.3 4400 33.8%2022 70%90%57 50 44%38%80%10 2022 11 2022 USGS USGS 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.00:,70.0%,14.3%,4.0%,6.0%,2.4%,0.3%,1.0%,0.9%,1.4%,1.8%,16.2%,5.3%,3.2%,33.8%,39.7%2009 1210 10 20 50 15 50 57 50 44%38%2015 27(REO)2 90 120 23 2011 5 2017 12 2011.05 5 2011.08 2011 8 12 2012.10 2012773 11 15 2013.01 2013.06,2009 1210 11 2013.08 2013344 2014.03-7 5 140 2 2014 10 10 2015 3 31 2014.10 2014 10 2015 3 2014.12 2015 2015 1 1 2015 5 2 2015.02 2015103 7 2015.04 鉬 2015.11 2015738 2015 11 1 12 20 17 79 2016.01 201595 2016.10 2016-2020 2016.11 2016764 2016 12 2017 4 2017.05-2017.06-2018.09 2018 9 2019 1 2018.12 2009 1210 12 2019.01 2019.03 2019 6 1 2019.06 2019.08 7%-12%20%2019.10(2019)1;2 20000(REO)/5000(REO)/500(REO)/;3()()2020.01 2020.04 14 2020.10 2011 2016 2016 4 5 9 2016 2017 1 3 5 13 2011 2011 06 2012 07 12 11000 4000 1000 鐠 500 2500 400 2014 09 4000 2500 1200 500 2016 04 700 300 2016 05 1250 250 54 54 2016 08 750 580 260 216 330 214 200 50 2016 12 670 330 280 2017 01 1300 440 95 2017 03 300 220 100 2009 1210 13 2017 05 520 100-200 35 2021 2020 2020 43.35/2021 59.85/22 110/14 2020 15 2020 Wind Wind 2021 1 2022 21 50%0204060801001202020-02-03 2021-02-03 2022-02-03 2023-02-03:99%Nd2O3 75%/0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002020-02-03 2021-02-03 2022-02-03 2023-02-03:99%/:99.9%/2009 1210 14 16 2010 2015-2019 40%MP 17 2017-2022 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 16800 20364 22017 23253 28744 37004 21.20%8.10%5.60%23.60%22.32%42%42%41%41%46%51%2760 2990 3220 3450 3680 3700 13500 13750 14500 14750 15500 18000 0 2350 3981 5924 6000 6000 1552 3770 5049 5015 4218 2975 5400 5580 5610 4860 5400 5400 40012 48805 54377 57252 63543 73080 22%11.40%5.30%11.00%15.00%2019 4%2022 15%2019-2023 2020-2022 136 354 705 2020-2022 10%159%99%0500001000001500002000002500002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 15 18 2020-2023 19 2019-2022 Wind EV Tank 2020-2021 2020 2021 10 8336 9011 20%35%20 2019-2021 Wind 21 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 221 312 650 1082 1400 1800 2300 kg 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.8 1.1 2.3 3.8 4.9 6.3 8.1 15062 14490 14490 14490 14490 14490 14490 46%57%85%90%95%97%99%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%kg 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.35 0.45 0.74 0.85 0.96 1.05 1.15 Wind EVtank EV sales 01002003004005006007008001月 2 月 3 月 4月 5月 6月 7 月 8月 9月 10月 11 月 12月2020 2021 2022 2023 0200400600800100012002019 2020 2021 2022-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.00200.00400.00600.00800.001,000.001,200.001月 2 月 3月 4月 5 月 6月 7 月 8月 9月 10月 11 月 12月2019 2020 2021 2019%2020%2021%2009 1210 16 2020 2020 54.4GW 2019 103%22 2019-2021 GW Wind 23 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 26.8 54.4 47.6 45.0 54.0 64.8 77.8 39%39%39%30%29%28%27%/MW 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 Wind 2020 30%2019 2020 4760 30%24 2015-2021 0204060801001202019 2020 2021 GW GW-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%2009 1210 17 2009 1210 18 6 2 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 7 Wind 2022 2022 2 2022 2023 2009 1210 19 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 20(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告