20230510_中泰证券_煤炭行业证券研究报告:消费旺季将至煤价有望上攻_33页.pdf
消费旺季将至,煤 价 有 望 上 攻 煤炭中期策略 煤炭 证券研究报告/投 资 策 略 报 告 2023 年 5 月 10 日 S0740522040001 Email Table_Profit 39()1,531,771()416,390 Table_QuotePic-Table_Report Table_Finance()EPS PE PB 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 10.75 2.09 2.13 2.21 2.33 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.6 1.55 20.69 4.74 5.25 5.82 6.48 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.2 1.19 9.91 2.47 2.02 2.11 2.24 4.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 1.02 34.70 6.30 5.65 6.51 7.51 5.5 6.1 5.3 4.6 2.00 31.36 3.50 3.65 3.77 3.92 9.0 8.6 8.3 8.0 1.52 20.44 3.62 3.19 3.35 3.66 5.6 6.4 6.1 5.6 1.83 9.20 1.38 1.83 2.06 2.27 6.7 5.0 4.5 4.1 0.91 14.50 3.52 3.53 3.78 3.92 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.7 2.22 13.70 2.83 2.91 3.10 3.24 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 0.96 6.81 1.11 0.78 0.83 0.89 6.1 8.7 8.2 7.7 1.21 12.73 2.82 3.19 3.48 4.06 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.1 0.90 7.93 0.51 0.49 0.55 0.69 15.5 16.2 14.4 11.5 2.37 2023 5 9 1-2 995/1200/3 1000/1000/2023Q1 1 2023 34 3888 0.4%1%198 36.5%2.0%614 66%0.1%2 34 2023 29.6%16.6%7.0 0.8 ROE 4.4%1.0 0.2 19 2023 47%1 1 2023 2023 4.43%0.53%6.46%5.13pct 6.06pct 6.54pct 2 60 5 2022 2021 4500 4400 5 60 3 2022 4 2023 2023 1-4 1.43 88.8%3 4 4000 1 4000 2 3 3000/2023 3000/2023-8.3%4 32.6%4 21.1%2023 72.2%2.4 2023 2022 2023 21983 7.6%40234 -2-4.10%2023 4.1%7.1%2014 2014-2022 4.1%2022 3.2 3.2%YWEVxOmRtQqRrPoNnQsNqR6MdN9PpNpPsQsRfQoOsPiNpOnPaQqQuMMYtPmQwMsQtP-3-.-5-2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1.-7-.-18-.-18-2023.-21-.-23-.-25-.-27-.-28-.-30-图表目 录 1 2020 7-2023 5 Q5500/.-6-2/.-6-3/.-6-4/.-7-5:/.-7-6 2022 2023 Q1.-7-7 2022 2023 Q1%.-9-8 2022 2023 Q1%.-10-9 2022 2023 Q1.-12-10 2022 2023 Q1/.-13-11 2022 2023 Q1%.-14-12 2022 2023 Q1.-16-13 2018-2022 2023 Q1.-17-14%.-19-15%.-19-16%.-19-17%.-19-18%.-19-19%.-20-20%.-21-21%.-21-4-22%.-21-23%.-21-24 5000.-22-25 4500.-22-26 2022%.-22-27%.-22-28 2023%.-23-29 2022%.-23-30 2014-2022.-23-31.-24-32%.-24-33%.-24-34.-24-35.-24-36.-24-37.-25-38.-25-39.-26-40.-26-41 247.-26-42.-26-43/.-27-44.-27-45%.-27-46 2014-2022.-28-47 2023 5 10.-28-48 2020-2022%.-29-49 PE.-29-5-2020 2021 1000 2022 1200 2020 2021 1000 2021 7 10 20 2570/2022 2 1200 2022 1500/1200/2023 1-2 995/1200/3 1000/-6-1 2020 7-2023 5 Q5500/Wind 2/3/wind 2023 5 6 wind 2023 5 6 -7-4/5:/wind wind 2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 2022 34 2022 15902 10%20 33 2022 12457 12%34 2022 2345 46%19 33 2022 1641 49%2023Q1 2023 34 3888 0.4%1%614 66%0.1%2023 6 2022 2023 Q1 2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 12,261 22%3,157-2%-60%677 74%946-2%-60%26,793 9%6,844-5%-1%3,860 9%1,584-5%-1%4,423 38%1,178 8%-1%69 173%62 8%-1%200,829 32%44,421 8%-10%30,466 88%5,619 8%-10%8,916-5%1,667-16-16-90-386 57-16%-16%-8-%8,589 9%2,004-13%7%1,496 34%307-13%7%46,391-3%10,648-1%-1%7,188 45%1,725-1%-1%8,386 24%2,238-5%37%2,522 83%597-5%37%16,082-12%3,715-10%13%2,976-33%711-10%13%344,533 3%87,042 4%-7%70,337 41%18,529 4%-7%9,287 11%2,243 29%-9%1,705-18%429 29%-9%166,848 10%44,809 13%24%29,411 44%7,267 13%24%220,577-8%59,158-4%31%18,112 34%7,133-4%31%12,003-4%2,896 1%-6%2,072-21%583 1%-6%36,036 15%7,925-14%13%4,395 74%1,208-14%13%65,183 20%14,752-5%-39%9,335 129%2,492-5%-39%35,556 31%7,068-9%-19%1,665 101%420-9%-19%11,843 22%2,863 0%3%2,134 55%324 0%3%12,634 24%3,142 1%17%1,477 337%835 1%17%69,062 6%18,994 6%62%6,971 48%2,075 6%62%26,004 12%6,262 9%-2%1,700-7%402 9%-2%36,044 21%8,630-11%10%5,745 97%1,023-11%10%6,619 12%1,975 0%0%195 819%282 0%0%54,297 20%11,892-14%-17%14,366 84%3,357-14%-17%14,156 10%3,017-8%11%3,527 46%774-8%11%35,042-8%8,379-9%-3%7,364 61%1,720-9%-3%24,600 15%5,338-14%-9%2,246-22%389-14%-9%12,696-2%2,639-18%4%-295-207%-124-18%4%1,159-32%185-55%-32%22 197%1-55%-32%12,075 8%2,467-21%-8%2,545 103%765-21%-8%7,541 24%1,887 3%3%-169-250%-23 3%3%3,773 5%830 5%-21%149-2%26 5%-21%-9-23,200 23%5,011-11%-5%294-78%54-11%-5%16,801 40%3,442-24%28%12-99%-180-24%28%1,590,238 10%388,718 1%0%234,478 46%61,367 0%66%1,245,705 12%301,676 0%3%164,141 49%42,838 0%71%wind 34 2022 34 2022 936 9.9%121 38.5%600 10.8%215 3%2022 11.7%2.6 0.6%5.8%0.2 1.9%0.5 2023 Q1 34 2023 198 36.5%2.0%27 25.0%1.2%131 33.8%4.0%40 48.6%18.0%2023 8.2%2.0 0.7 0.7%5.2%2.5 0.2 1.9%7 2022 2023 Q1%2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 12.0 4.5 9.4 1.1-4.4 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 9.3 3.3 6.8-0.7-3.5 1.9 1.1 1.7 1.6-1.0 4.3 0.0 3.1-0.2-4.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1-0.1 3.0 0.5 2.1 0.2-3.8 1.1-0.4 0.8-0.5-0.1 18.0-13.6 17.5-1.3 1.8 1.5-0.5 1.5-0.1 0.1 12.2-11.2 10.9-1.7-0.7 4.2-1.9 5.1 0.4 2.4 10.0-0.4 7.4-1.8-9.6 3.2 1.2 2.9-0.3-1.4 4.3-0.9 3.1-0.4-4.2 2.5-0.7 1.4-1.1-3.9 5.4 0.0 6.5 0.0-1.0 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.1-0.2 2.2-0.1 2.5 0.6-1.4 2.7 0.1 3.4-0.7 0.7 14.7-4.1 19.4 6.3 12.1 1.2-0.2 1.4 0.3 0.3 10.9-2.5 13.2 5.3 4.3 2.6-1.4 4.8 0.7 7.5 6.4-0.2 5.4 0.1-4.0 1.2 0.1 1.5 0.2 0.6 4.2 0.3 3.4 0.3-4.0 1.0-0.7 0.5-0.4-0.6 13.4-2.9 13.0-1.1 3.2 0.6-0.2 0.7 0.0 0.4 12.7-2.2 12.0-0.9 1.0 0.1-0.6 0.3-0.2 1.8 5.7-0.8 8.6 4.2-1.4 0.9 0.1 0.7 0.0-0.7 3.3-0.6 5.1 3.3-3.5 1.5-0.3 2.8 0.9 2.7 4.3 0.7 2.9 0.0-3.7 0.1-0.1 0.1-0.1 0.2 4.0 0.5 2.7 0.0-2.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0-1.0 11.2-1.1 11.7 0.0-4.6 1.5 0.1 1.9-0.4 0.3 6.1 0.1 5.7 0.7-5.4 3.6-1.4 4.1-0.4 0.5 4.7-0.6 4.0-0.3-2.3 0.5-0.2 0.5 0.0-0.1 4.6-0.1 3.8-0.4-2.1-0.4-0.3-0.3 0.0-0.1 4.8 0.6 3.7-0.2-4.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.0-0.2 2.7 0.5 2.0 0.1-3.5 1.7 0.0 1.3-0.3-0.5 -10-12.4 0.9 9.7-3.1-4.6 0.5 0.1 0.4-0.1 0.0 6.6 1.5 4.3-2.4-4.9 5.4-0.7 5.0-0.6 0.3 8.9-0.5 10.6 2.7-1.3 0.5-0.1 0.5-0.1-0.1 7.0 0.2 8.2 2.5-1.4 1.4-0.6 1.9 0.2 0.2 9.7-0.1 8.0 0.7-4.9 0.6 0.0 0.6-0.1-0.5 7.3 0.2 5.9 0.7-3.2 1.8-0.3 1.5 0.1-1.2 10.9-1.3 11.3 1.2 0.8 0.3-0.1 0.2-0.1 0.0 3.7-0.7 4.3 0.5 0.1 6.9-0.5 6.8 0.8 0.7 16.3 4.2 12.4 0.8-7.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 14.8 4.9 11.4 1.5-6.8 1.3-0.7 0.9-0.6-0.5 9.1 1.4 4.0-0.8-15.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0-0.1 8.2 1.9 3.3-0.6-15.1 0.6-0.4 0.5-0.2-0.1 9.9 0.4 9.6-0.1-1.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.6 8.4 0.0-1.3 0.9-0.2 0.9-0.2-0.3 6.4 0.0 5.0-0.8-3.2 1.2-0.1 0.9-0.3-0.5 4.3 0.5 3.7 0.2-2.3 0.9-0.4 0.4-0.7-0.3 8.4-1.0 7.0 1.9-7.3 0.7-0.1 0.6 0.1-0.4 4.4-0.8 2.6 0.5-5.6 3.3-0.1 3.7 1.4-1.3 11.0-2.6 8.7-0.4 0.0 0.6-0.1 0.5-0.1 0.0 6.8-1.1 5.3-0.1-0.4 3.5-1.4 2.9-0.2 0.5 10.6-2.1 7.5-1.9-7.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2-0.3 8.9-0.7 6.9 0.1-6.9 1.3-1.4 0.2-2.1-0.1 127.3 112.0 28.3 12.9 7.5 0.9-0.2 0.9-0.1 0.6 10.9 0.7 9.8-2.0-7.7 2.3-1.8 1.3-1.3-1.7 6.3-0.3 5.7 0.4-3.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.4 4.5 0.2 4.3 0.7-3.0 1.4-0.5 1.0-0.3-1.0 5.9-0.4 7.0 1.0 0.0 0.7-0.1 0.8-0.2 0.0 3.9-0.5 4.6 0.5-0.1 1.3 0.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 2.8 0.2 2.8 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7-0.2 1.3-0.3 0.5 1.1 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.4 0.6 3.2 1.9-0.7 0.8 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.2 1.5 0.2 1.9 1.1-0.7 0.1 0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2 5.4-0.4 5.8 1.4-0.8 0.5-0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 3.1-0.4 3.1 0.4-0.7 1.8 0.0 2.1 0.9-0.2 4.7-0.2 3.5-3.0-1.3 0.2-0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.4-0.5 2.7-2.2-0.5 1.1 0.4 0.6-0.8-0.8 8.1-1.3 9.3-0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.3 0.1 6.0 0.2 0.2 2.5-1.3 3.0-0.5-0.1 2.5-1.0 3.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 1.0-0.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.3-0.9 1.6 0.3 0.2 3.3-0.6 3.7 0.2 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0-0.1 2.1-1.4 2.3-1.0 6.2 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2-2.5 11.7 2.6 8.2 0.7-2.0 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.8-0.2 5.1 0.2-2.5 1.9-0.5 1.9 0.0 0.0 11.9 2.7 8.4 0.7-2.0 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 5.9-0.3 5.2 0.2-2.4 1.9-0.5 1.9 0.0 0.0 wind 2022 34 2022 30.4%2.3 20 34 2022 14.7%2.9 22 ROE 34 2022 17.3%1.6 22 ROE 2023Q1 34 2023 29.6%34 2023 16.6%7.0 0.8 ROE 34 2023 4.4%1.0 0.2 8 2022 2023 Q1%ROE 2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 46.9 16.4 48.0 1.6-8.2 26.1 11.1 30.4-2.0-0.7 28.3 19.9 7.1 2.0-14.9 31.4-2.6 39.5-1.8 13.9 17.6-1.8 25.4-1.4 16.5 18.2-0.6 6.1-1.0 3.0 -11-35.9 1.9 36.7 0.5-2.0 7.2 7.4 10.2 0.2 2.6 4.2 16.9 3.8 0.7 3.1 40.9 11.6 31.5-5.8-10.5 19.6 7.4 15.6-4.2 5.1 38.7 10.9 5.8-3.5 1.9 5.2-1.4 12.0 12.8-2.2-0.8-1.4 3.5 11.5-2.2-12.4-20.2 9.3 35.3-11.1 45 3.9 42.5 6.8 9.5 21.5 3.6 18.7 5.7 2.0 19.3 2 3.9 0.6 1.5 44.8 7 46.9 4.0-4.1 23.7 7.4 25.8 1.9 2.0 52.1 8.5 10.6-2.4-0.5 50.8 8.7 46.9 10.5-27.8 29.9 9.4 27.3 10.9-27.8 23.2 8.7 5.0 1.2-2.9 50-4.3 48.5-1.5 22.4 27.4-7.3 28.0-3.2 36.8 23-25.5 4.7-2.5 7.0 39 6 36.6-3.7 0.3 23.7 6 24.4-2.3 11.1 18.1 4.4 4.6-0.3 1.9 54.7-9.8 55.0 0.2 11.5 23.4-11.3 28.8 1.9 31.6 13.4-10 4.0 0.8 5.8 45 9.1 39.4-2.7-20.5 31.8 9.7 25.0 0.1-7.2 35.3 8 6.5 0.0-0.2 25.1 6.9 25.8 1.8 3.2 11.5 3.3 15.9 0.7 19.1 14.9 2.6 5.3-0.5 6.1 42.4-0.6 40.0-4.3 3.8 19.5-0.3 21.7 0.6 12.5 19.6-10.2 5.0-0.4 3.1 32 4.8 37.3 7.4 7.6 14.5 3.3 36.5 23.5 27.2 21.4 7.8 12.0 7.4 9.7 42.2 12.4 41.1 1.3-2.9 20.3 10 20.9 0.5 3.5 36.7 16.6 7.2-3.1-0.8 21.5-0.9 24.2 2.1 7.5 4.6 1.3 5.6 2.0 2.0 4.4 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 40.6 5.9 29.0-9.1-2.5 18.9 5.5 12.6-5.5-4.8 22.2 5.7 3.0-3.7-1.7 34.5 13.9 44.6 2.4 35.5 13.6 9.6 27.5 2.8 42.7 15.4 11.8 6.6-0.5 9.7 23.2 3.4 24.3 1.9-4.0 10.3 2.3 11.2 1.3-2.9 23.1 3.5 6.1 0.4 0.6 16.3-4.6 14.2-7.4 5.3 5.9-3.3 4.2-6.4 6.4 13.3-1 2.9-1.4 2.6 34.4 6.8 27.9-5.1-6.9 17.1 6.1 14.6-3.9 0.7 29.2 12.1 5.0-4.2 0.3 26.1 4.3 32.3 3.2 7.0 2.9 2.5 14.5 2.9 15.6 3.7 3.2 5.2 0.8 5.6 55.9 7.2 57.0 14.1-9.3 28.8 13.7 32.3 12.0-2.2 34 12 6.7-0.1-3.9 54.5 7 49.6-3.7-5.4 23.3 7.7 25.8-1.5 12.0 22.6 2.8 4.9-1.6 1.8 46.4 10.3 42.6 8.3-19.4 22.7 11.5 22.6 5.6-4.3 31.4 11.9 6.3 0.4-1.6 21-9.3 20.1-3.9-3.5 9.1-5.6 7.8-4.1 0.0 16.4-5.5 2.7-2.6-0.8 0.7-4.5-1.9-6.4 3.3-2.3-4.5-4.7-6.3 4.5-11.1-21.7-5.0-6.8 3.8 4.7 2.1 4.1 0.5 0.1 1.9 1 0.8-1.0-0.3 6.4 1.5 0.4-1.7-0.4-1.4-8.1-7.4-8.1 0.3 21.3 12.1 30.8-5.1 35.5 19.4 8.6 5.1-3.7 6.0 2.6-2.5 2.5-1.5 1.2-2.3-2-0.8 1.9 3.8-5.5-4.7-0.5 1.0 2.2 14.8-2.1 15.8-0.5-3.4 3.3-0.1 3.6-0.9 0.5 2.1-0.4 0.4-0.2-0.1 4.1-9.3 2.6-5.2 1.5 1-9 0.7-4.5 0.7 3.2-18.5 0.6-2.1 0.2 4-9.8-2.7-8.6-0.7 1.5-6.3-4.0-6.8-3.6 2.9-8.3-1.6-3.0-1.5 30.4 2.3 29.6 0.0 0.0 14.7 2.9 16.6 0.8 7.0 17.3 1.6 4.4 0.2 1.0 30.2 2.2 29.4 0.1 0.0 14.4 2.8 16.3 0.9 6.9 17.2 1.5 4.4 0.2 1.0 wind 2022 23 2022 10.9 2.4%11.9 5.4%22 2022 7.8 2.5%7.7 0.5%2022 2023Q1 21 2023 -12-2.7 3.5%2.9 3.1%20 2023 1.9 5.5%1.8 4.0%9 2022 2023 Q1 2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 1494 0.8%1415-7.1%4600 0.0%4600-0.1%559 17.3%163 13.9%621 15.3%165 4.5%9953-5.2%2253-10.4%9117-2.8%2024-12.0%144-8.3%45 74.4%127-10.6%37 61.9%1158-9.0%281-9.3%1162-8.5%272-13.7%4057 0.4%1063 16.5%5388-21.0%1241 2.1%934-7.6%221-11.3%704-4.8%197-3.4%3280-6.2%853-1.2%2731-10.1%700 0.0%31340 2.1%8010-0.9%41780-13.4%10760 1.8%1490 8.6%443 58.8%1489 4.6%440 56.7%15728 11.0%4085 11.3%15549 11.0%4044 12.5%11917 4.4%3330 9.2%12034 7.3%3257 5.7%1842 8.6%477 15.8%1811 7.2%478 22.3%1440 2.4%300 3.2%1440 2.7%299 2.2%1169 11.1%317 20.8%1171 12.8%317 18.1%819 7.5%209 4.5%655-2.1%173 15.5%2290 1.4%568-5.8%1882-4.7%510-1.7%3062 6.1%780 7.1%3092 0.9%793-0.4%630 22.4%160 41.3%637 24.4%161 37.4%5324-2.1%1470 2.6%5294 5.1%1271-1.7%1146 10.2%291 4.1%1163 13.3%249 2.0%4523-1.9%1157-0.1%4642-22.3%1071-0.8%108899 2.4%26476 3.5%118505-5.4%28461 3.1%77559 2.5%18466 5.5%76725-0.5%17701 4.0%wind 2022 23 2022 748/20%370/1%378/47%51%9 2023Q1 20 2023 636/4%19 2023 336/6%300-13-/1%47%1 10 2022 2023 Q1/2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 2022 2023Q1 719.1 36%282.7 23%436.4 46%61%4%182.8 13%92.9 8%89.8 18%49%2%646.6 23%649.8 2%405.2 23%394.3 2%241.3 22%255.5 2%37%0%39%0%1169.6 63%1066.3 14%345.9 4%374.6 12%823.7 114%691.7 15%70%17%65%1%1023.7 4%1110.2 41%846.0 20%742.4-32%177.7-36%367.8 218%17%-11%33%73%685.6 39%639.2 9%364.8 48%312.2-4%320.8 30%327.0 25%47%-3%51%7%851.7 23%848.1-3%466.2 8%446.5-10%385.5 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