20230512_海通证券_新能源板块行业证券研究报告：中国特色估值体系下新能源产业链的价值重估_28页.pdf

Table_MainInfo/2023 05 12 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo 2971.345401.957832.5710263.1912693.8115124.432022/5 2022/8 2022/11 2023/2 Table_ReportInfo 3 400MW 2023.05.08 Q1 133GWh 2023.05.08 Q1 6.0GWh 2023.05.07 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:02123219171 Email:S0850513090008:Tel:(021)23219171 Email:S0850523030004:Tel:02123219406 Email:S0850522120002:Tel:(021)23219391 Email:S0850511010002:Tel:(021)23154145 Email:S0850522120003 10 2023 PEG 1 ESG-PE 2 1.6 1.1.6 1.2.7 1.3.8 2.9 2.1.9 2.2.10 2.3.11 2.4 PEG.12 3.13 3.1.13 3.2.14 3.2.1.14 3.2.2.15 3.3.15 4.16 4.1.16 4.1.1 PB 0.84.16 4.1.2.17 4.2.18 4.2.1.18 4.2.2.18 4.3.18 4.3.1.19 4.4.19 5.20 5.1.20 5.2.21 ZXEVxOqNtQoPsMtQrMrOpO6MdN8OpNoOsQtQiNrRrMjMrQsQ7NqQzRMYrNqNNZmQqR 3 1 2016-2022%.6 2 2016-2022%.6 3 2016-2022Q3%.6 4 2016-2022Q3%.6 5 2016-PE_TTM.7 6 2016-PS_TTM.7 7 2016-2022%.7 8 2016-2022%.7 9 2016-2022%.8 10 2016-2022%.8 11 2016-PE_TTM.8 12 2016-PS_TTM.8 13 2022%.9 14 2022%.9 15 2022 Top10.10 16 PE_TTM.11 17 PB.11 18 2021.12 19 A.15 20.18 21.18 22.20 23 TOP4.20 24 A.20 25 A.20 26 A.21 27 A.21 28 A A.21 29 A.21 4 30 PE TTM PB LF.22 31.22 32.22 33.22 34 PB-ROE.22 35.23 36 PE TTM.23 5 1 2017-2021.9 2 A.10 3 2022.11 4 PEG.12 5 A.13 6.14 7.14 8 A.16 9 A.16 10 2023 3 14 2022Q3.17 11 PB 2023 3 14.18 12/.19 6 1.1.1 30%2021 2021 332.3+176.0%“”2022“”653.5+96.7%27.8%2022Q4 33.2%+4.8pct 2022 40.8%+10.4pct 30.2%+13.4pct 2022 22.8%+11.8pct 65.0%2022 56.0%1 2016-2022%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%01002003004005006007002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022新 能源销 量（万辆，左轴）同 比增速（%，右轴）2 2016-2022%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CS 2018-2020 2021 CS 2018-2020 7.8%4.8%2021 2022Q3 8171.7 10719.9+67.9%+99.9%2021 2022Q3 687.3 1187.9+148.8%+162.0%3 2016-2022Q3%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0200040006000800010000120002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3年 度 总 营 收（亿 元，左 轴）同比增速（%，右 轴）wind 4 2016-2022Q3%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%02004006008001000120014002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3年 度 归 母 净利 润（亿元，左 轴）同比增速（%，右 轴）wind 4 21 CS PE_TTM 21.3x 2.9%29.3%7 47.2%PS_TTM 2.3x 19.8%59.9%70.2%5 2016Q1-2023Q1 PE_TTM 05010015020025016Q116Q216Q316Q417Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1PE_TTM wind 6 2016Q1-2023Q1 PS_TTM 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.016Q116Q216Q316Q417Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1PS_TTM wind 1.2 2015-2020 23.2%2020 32.5+1.0%2.9%2021 2021 65.1+100.5%5.5%2022 94.8+45.5%8.8%7 2016-2022%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0204060801002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022美国新能源乘用车销量（万辆，左轴）同比增速（%，右 轴）Marklines 8 2016-2022%0%2%4%6%8%10%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022渗透率（%）Marklines Rivian Lucid 2022 837.3+55.3%2021 70.9%2022 45.0 Rivian Lucid 8 9 2016-2022%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%01002003004005006007008009002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022年 度 总 营收（亿美 元，左 轴）同 比 增 速（%，右轴）wind Rivian Lucid 10 2016-2022%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%-30-20-10010203040502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022年度归母净利润（亿美元，左轴）同比增速（%，右 轴）wind Rivian Lucid 2023 4 21 5474 PE_TTM 121.7x PS_TTM 6.5x 11 2016Q1-203Q1 PE_TTM-2,500-1,500-5005001,5002,5003,5004,500PE_TTM wind 12 2016Q1-2023Q1 PS_TTM 051015202516Q116Q216Q316Q417Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1PS_TTM wind 1.3 Marklines 2022 1034.6+64.2%62.9%+10.7pct 2022 10 3 185.8 18.0%5 10 5.7%3.3%SNE Research 2022 EV PHEV HEV 517.9 GWh 71.8%191.6 GWh 37.0%LG 70.4 GWh 13.6%9 13 2022%6%7%8%15%18%47%吉利控股集团 通用集团 大众集团 Tesla 比亚迪汽车 其他 Marklines 14 2022%37%14%14%7%5%23%宁德时代 比亚迪 LG 新能源 日本松下 SK On 其他 SNE Research 1.4 2.2.1 BP 2021 306.40GW 36%93.71GW 1 2017-2021 MW 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 130801 175016 204575 253834 306403 41357 51426 58924 73814 93713 44226 55500 61526 69764 74191 42291 45156 49045 53781 58459 17923 27125 34861 38983 49342 19682 20108 20865 21594 22692 7571 8876 13565 17625 19074 5835 7130 10505 14575 18161 8610 9691 10795 11724 14709 12760 13073 13346 13563 13689 384452 482916 580760 710281 843086 BP 10 15 2022 Top10 Top 10 Module Suppliers in 2022(by shipment volume)Rank Module Supplier Chage(Y/Y)1 LONGi Green Energy-3 Trina Solar 4 JA Solar 5 CSI Solar(Canadian Solar)-6 Risen Energy-7 Astronergy(Chint)8 First Solar 9 Q CELLS(Hanwha Solutions)-10 DMEGC Solar(Hengdian Group)PV-Tech 1.3.4.5.6.7.10.A“A”A 2 A A PE(TTM)()PE(TTM)32.4420 SOLAREDGE 190.6598 202.8365 1.7145 59.8723 NEXTRACKER 66.6063 52.7119 10.7794 37.5439 ARRAY-75.6920 108.7712 FIRST SOLAR-506.6623 28.9349 26.8169 ISUN-0.2032 21.8859 FTC SOLAR-2.8145 15.8621 29.2038 17.9597 TCL 19.0319 26.9439 5.8644 5.4081 20.5853 38.5246 WIND 2023/4/25 2.2 Wind 2022 12483.95 59%2023 3 14 PE_TTM 23.7x PB 3.92x 11 16 PE_TTM 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.00 wind 17 PB 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.00 wind 2.3 3 2022“”7 1 2.3.4.5.6.7.2022 27.5496 14.7061 12.545 2890 2023 20.46 25.8 8425 47.1 50KW 2023 2022 2019 2020“”2022:“”2022 50%2022”2021 2021 1493.4 kWh/m 1399 12 18 2021 2.4 PEG PEG Wind 2022-2024 PEG 1 13 4 PEG 2022 2023 2024 0.5073 0.3964 0.6453 1.4999 0.1722 0.3742 1.4370 0.5605 0.5148 1.3754 0.6749 0.5097 1.9364 0.3206 0.3156 0.4988 0.6049 0.7733 0.2009 0.3353 0.4577 0.0121 0.2725 0.3540 0.0127 0.2766 0.4540 0.3243 0.5891 0.5654 TCL 0.2625 0.6128 0.6634 0.0801 0.1415 0.2738 0.0251-0.3859-9.0585-0.6660 0.2388 0.6102 0.2054 0.1656 0.2717 Wind 2023/3/10 2.5 3.3.1 iFind 136 A 18 20 10 3 10 PE TTM 45.34 PB LF 3.52 PE TTM 32.86 51.73 PB LF PB LF 3.29 3.65 PE TTM 37.24 PB LF 3.40 PE TTM 28.30 PB LF 2.79 5 A PE TTM PB LF 45.34 3.52 32.86 3.29 37.24 3.40 28.30 2.79 33.53 4.08 51.73 3.65 iFind 2023 3 10 PE 1000 14 A A GICS 89 154 3 10 PE TTM 12.31 PE TTM 19.87 A 6 PE TTM PB LF 12.31 1.23 19.87 3.03 iFind 2023 3 10 PE 1000 3.2 3.2.1,7 2004 7 67 A A 2019 3 2019 12 A“A A”2022 1 15 3.2.2 ESG ESG ESG ESG ESG 19 A 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002017 2018 2019 2020 2021A%ESG-ESG 2022 10 28 A 24 10 ESG 41.67%3.3 A 3 10 62%66%23%3%59%16 8 A 3 10 2021 PE TTM ROE%600547.SH-0.66 5.37 0.26 49.62 809.72 600489.SH 6.83 7.82 2.41 22.24 450.80 601899.SH 22.06 11.58 1.75 14.32 2954.31 601600.SH 8.87 10.49 0.58 21.60 859.57 600362.SH 8.07 2.04 2.62 11.30 548.51 000807.SZ 18.25 16.71 0.88 11.56 445.29 000933.SZ 34.53 32.79 2.51 5.95 404.28 000630.SZ 14.29 2.60 3.05 13.74 345.27 600111.SH 33.42 12.48 1.67 14.53 960.52 601958.SH 4.11 12.15 0.79 29.34 407.84 000831.SZ 7.51-25.04 0.00 95.89 350.57 Wind 2021 15 8 3.4 4.4.1 4.1.1 PB 0.84 2023 3 14 PB0.84 PB 1.03 9 A 3 10 2021 PE TTM ROE%2899.HK 22.06 1.98 13.31 3329.32 2600.HK 8.87 0.94 14.81 968.68 1787.HK-0.96 0.42 37.24 912.51 0358.HK 8.27 4.76 6.45 618.14 0347.HK 11.61 10.36-57.30 306.30 1818.HK 0.21 0.00 94.42 275.69 0323.HK 16.28 22.65-24.00 239.68 1208.HK 34.56 0.00 13.24 177.98 Wind 2021 17 10 2023 3 14 2022Q3 537 866 1.61 1957 1321 0.67 202 145 0.72 88 61 0.69 260 202 0.78 123 102 0.83 ST 62 301 4.89 87 58 0.67 307 214 0.70 350 903 2.58 527 235 0.45 98 65 0.67 198 121 0.61 357 249 0.70 582 253 0.43 487 325 0.67 488 292 0.60 64 87 1.36 213 114 0.53 96 92 0.96 221 139 0.63 37 61 1.65 269 128 0.48 80 140 1.76 244 144 0.59 8145 6808 0.84 1.03 Wind 4.1.2 PB 18 11 PB 2023 3 14 2023-3-14 21&PB MRQ PE TTM PE LYR 2 5000 6.52 0.742 12.62 6.14 1451 30 1500 19.16 2.826 13.01 12.16 967 4 4900 3,070.00 0.716 4.51 4.58 1510 JFE 14 2685 1,673.00 0.484 4.92 3.57 532 6 4300 60.73 0.556 5.71 3.81 1460 26 1600 30.70 1.483 12.00 7.80 1084 58 800 1.51 0.205 2.27 1.84 49 1 8000 29.28 0.457 1.80 1.58 1626 39 1200 6.89 0.412(37.29)(37.29)317 13 3100 13.00 10.529 30.01 30.01 10956 JSW 19 1900 240.20 1.242 7.34 7.34 488 15 2560 156.24 2.138 5.20 5.20 2714 24 1630 27.05 0.600 2.43 2.43 423 Wind 4.2 4.2.1 2022 10.18 54.20%8.64 67%2022 7200 5 20 2023 132 792 20 30%40%50%60%Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/20 Jan/22 Wind 21 0100200300400Dec/01 Dec/06 Dec/11 Dec/16 Dec/21 Wind 4.2.2 50%4.3 19 4.3.1 2016-2021 5 240 22 2000-2021 100 360 2022 Q3 8150 5%PB 12/2000-2021 137 153 2000-2016 83 127 2016-2021 240 241 Wind 4.4 2021 76%62%21%2021 4 42%4 15%FMG FMG 2022 FMG 1.9 62 33 230 2022 9.57 2.8 4.31 2.2 3.3 1.5 2022 3100 2022 200 55/100/851 3100 2022 7 19 2025 20 22(300)(200)(100)0100200300400Dec/09 Dec/14 Dec/19 62-/Wind 23 TOP4 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%TOP4 TOP4 Wind 4.5 5.5.1 A A 2023 3 12 277 66 24%22Q3 44%29%2023/3/10 A PE TTM/PB LF 15.2/1.3 39.1/3.2 27.1/2.2 A PE 2010 40 15 PB 2010 4 1.3 A PE PB 60%2023 3 12 24 A 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%22Q3 Wind 2023/3/10 25 A 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.50.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0 PE TTM,PB LF Wind 2023/3/10 21 26 A 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.501020304050-PE(TTM)-PB(LF)Wind 2023/3/10 27 A 00.20.40.60.811.2PE TTM-/-PB LF-/-Wind 2023/3/10 A A Wind 2023/3/10 PE/PB 24.6/2.0 A TESLA APTIV A PE 86%77%PE 80%85%2023 3 12 28 A A 0246810121401020304050607080 PE(TTM)PB(LF Wind 2023/3/10 29 A 050100150200250300350 Wind 2023/3/10 5.2 2010-2013 2015-2016 2018-2019 2021-2022 22 30 PE TTM PB LF 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.005010015020025030010/02 11/02 12/02 13/02 14/02 15/02 16/02 17/02 18/02 19/02 20/02 21/02 22/02 23/02 PE TTM PB LF Wind 2023 3 11 A-31 46%36%-3%-223%-250%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%2017-2022Q3 Wind 32 Wind 2023 3 11-DAF 2017/03-2023/03 PB PB-ROE 33 Wind 2023 3 11 34 PB-ROE 01122334455-20 0 20 40 60 80PB（MRQ）ROE(TTM）DAF Wind 2023 3 11 23 2023 97 45%-PE 2019-2022 CR5 80%35 2022,24%,16%,19%,19%,10%,13%Wind 36 PE TTM Wind 2023 3 11 5.3 24 Table_Analysts 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%25 Table_PeopleInfo(021)23219403(021)23219404(021)23219658(021)23219747(0755)82780398(021)23219820(021)23219394(021)23154149(021)23154658(021)23219674(021)23219732(021)23219395(021)23219984(021)23219883(021)23212230(021)23185655(021)23212231(021)23154170 021-23219745 洢(021)23219419(021)23185680(021)23219326(021)23219686(021)23219370(021)23219445(021)23219819(021)23219773(021)23185675(021)23219433(021)23154168(021)23219068(021)23219645 珮(021)23154121 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02123219171(021)23154184(0755)82764281(021)23214397(021)23219431(021)23219392(021)23219392(021)23154174(021)23154174(021)23154137(0755)23617756(021)23185620(010)50949926 010-56760095(021)23154128(010)50949926(021)23219634(010)56760090 010-56760090(021)23154171(021)23219382(021)23219442(010)56760091(021)23219407(021)23154510(021)23219405(021)23212081(021)23154122(021)23154114 玥(021)23219814(021)23154119(021)23154659(021)23219391 劼 18515295560 18901961523 13718567611(010)58067998(021)23219402(021)23154172(021)23154171(021)23154019 晅 021-2321-4129(021)23154483(021)23154395(021)23219356(021)23154134(021)23219399(755)82900465(021)23219583 祎(021)23219768(021)23219244(021)23154382(021)23214390(021)23154146 27(0755)23607963(0755)82775962(0755)83253022(0755)83255933(0755)82775282(0755)23617160 0755-25597716(021)23219385(021)23219397(021)23219384(021)23219410(021)23154192 23214650 祎(021)23212268(021)23219373 祎(021)23219281(010)58067988 010-5806 7936(010)58067931 垚(010)58067851 689 9 021 23219000 021 23219392 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告