20230423_广发证券_金属及金属新材料行业证券研究报告：锂板块预期改善机会渐行渐近_26页.pdf
识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/25 T ab l e _ P ag e 投资策略周报|有色金属 证券研究报告 T ab l e _ T i t l e T ab l e _ S u m mar y Wind 4 17 4 21 LME-0.91%2.67%1.51%-3.07%6.91%4 15 24.5 2.08%GDP 4.5%2.2%Wind 4 17 4 21-1.84%-2.56%-3.92%-2.69%5.20PCT 42.42%Wind 4 17 4 21 COMEX 1.17%1994.1/0.14%101.72 4 15 24.5 24 23.9 Wind 4 17 4 21 7.51%17.85/18.33%20.50/20/Wind 4 17 4 21 47.80/1.29%11.75/12.21%2940/T a bl e _G r a de 2023-04-23 T ab l e _ P i cQ u o t e T ab l e _ A u t h o r SAC S0260518070003 SFC CE No.BOB672 010-59136627 SAC S0260513080002 SFC CE No.BNV167 0755-88286912 T ab l e _ D o cRe p o r t:2023-04-16:2023-04-09:2023-04-02 T ab l e _ C o n t ac ts 02138003617 021-38003631-22%-15%-9%-2%4%11%03/22 05/22 07/22 09/22 11/22 01/23 300 公共联系人 286167 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 2/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Table_impcom EPS()PE(x)EV/EBITDA(x)ROE(%)/2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 000807.SZ CNY 15.02 2023/03/26 17.61 1.76 1.79 8.53 8.39 5.22 5.16 22.20 19.10 000933.SZ CNY 18.58 2022/10/17 22.70 3.42 3.63 5.43 5.12 3.23 3.12 30.00 23.30 002532.SZ CNY 7.73 2023/03/19 10.40 1.04 1.20 7.43 6.44 4.08 3.66 18.50 18.50 601168.SH CNY 13.23 2022/10/22 14.22 1.52 1.54 8.70 8.59 3.44 3.42 17.00 14.20 600019.SH CNY 6.88 2022/05/19 8.97 1.24 1.39 5.55 4.95 3.10 2.85 12.90 13.60 002318.SZ CNY 15.72 2023/03/24 22.57 1.50 1.69 10.48 9.30 10.32 9.38 20.30 20.20 000975.SZ CNY 12.03 2023/03/08 14.64 0.49 0.50 24.55 24.06 10.65 10.34 11.60 11.10 002240.SZ CNY 33.80 2023/03/08 61.00 4.07 3.96 8.30 8.54 6.14 6.12 22.60 18.00 600456.SH CNY 34.58 2022/10/25 67.93 2.22 2.49 15.58 13.89 9.68 8.81 12.80 12.10 688122.SH CNY 78.62 2023/03/28 102.50 2.93 3.57 26.83 22.02 20.71 17.27 20.10 21.60 605376.SH CNY 38.09 2022/04/25 57.50 1.53 1.54 24.90 24.73 20.01 19.93 16.80 14.10 688598.SH CNY 165.38 2022/10/28 334.39 9.06 11.46 18.25 14.43 13.38 10.57 9.10 8.40 601958.SH CNY 10.98 2023/04/12 16.32 0.91 0.98 12.07 11.20 7.61 7.10 22.80 24.10 Wind 公共联系人 XVFUyRnQoNmNoQsRqNtMpO8OaOaQtRrRsQsRjMoOtPkPpNtP8OoOvNMYpMoPuOoNvM 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 3/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属.6.6.7.7.7.8.9.13.23.23 公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 4/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.9 5.10 6 10.10 7 10.10 8 10.11 9 10.11 10 500 100.11 11%.12 12%.12 13 LME.14 14 SHFE.14 15 LME.14 16 SHFE.14 17 LME.14 18 SHFE.14 19 LME.15 20 SHFE.15 21 LME.15 22 SHFE.15 23 LME.15 24 SHFE.15 25.16 26.16 27.16 28 MB.16 29.16 30.16 31.17 32.17 33.17 34.17 35.17 36.17 37.18 38.18 39:.19 40.19 41.19 公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 5/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 42.19 43.19 44.19 45.20 46.20 47:.20 48:.20 49:.20 50:.20 51:.21 52:.21 53:.21 54:.21 55:.21 56:.21 57:.22 58:.22 59 GDP.23 60 CPI.23 61.23 62 PMI.23 1.13 2.18 公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 6/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Wind 4 17 4 21 LME-0.91%2.67%1.51%-3.07%6.91%LME-20.71%10.57%22.09%19.15%-15.89%SHFE-1.98%0.88%-0.10%-2.30%7.41%SHFE-2.32%-4.63%-31.91%-8.04%0.10%4 15 24.5 2.08%GDP 4.5%2.2%Wind 4 17 4 21 LME 0.91%8,781.00/LME 20.71%51,875 SHFE 1.98%68,660.00/SHFE 2.32%146,016 SMM 4 21 18.35 4.3%1.27PCT 63.79%3.10PCT 64.6%4.85PCT 53.51%Wind 4 17 4 21 LME 2.67%2,402.50/LME 10.57%571,400 SHFE 0.88%18,890.00/SHFE 4.63%261,644 SMM Mysteel 4 20 SMM 90.6 6.0 2018 0.58%34.83 Wind 4 17 4 21 LME 3.07%2,718.00/LME 19.15%53,500 SHFE 2.30%21,880.00/SHFE 8.04%79,941 SMM Mysteel 4 21 SMM 13.67 0.50 0.41PCT 82.99%66.53%Wind 4 17 4 21 LME 1.51%2,151.00/LME 22.09%32,200 SHFE 0.10%15,290.00/SHFE 31.91%25,825 Mysteel SMM SMM 42.33%4 20 3.06 0.90 公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 7/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Wind 4 17 4 21 LME 6.91%26,150.00/LME 15.89%1,535 SHFE 7.41%212,550.00/SHFE 0.10%9,065 SMM 10538 50 2020 4 15 2022 4.05 13.1%70%62%Wind 4 17 4 21 1.23%16400.00 0.30 PCT 91.50%1.84%4264.79/2.56%887.71/3.92%2450.00/2.69%2890.00/5.20 PCT 42.42%M1-3 10.8%5.8%1.8%24.9%Mysteel 4 20 1,417.48 31.05 95.44 Wind 4 17 4 21 COMEX 1.17%1994.1/0.14%101.72 4 15 24.5 24.0 23.9 3(CPI)5%5.2%3 PPI 0.5%Wind 4 17 4 21 7.51%17.85/18.33%20.50/20/Wind 4 17 4 21 LME 6.83%24,650.00/LME 2.13%41,124 SHFE 0.03%185,200.00/SHFE 34.13%1,496 4.39%4.36/公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 8/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 Wind 4 17 4 21 47.80/1.14%870.00/3.20%193.50/Wind 4 17 4 21 65%1.29%11.75/Wind 4 17 4 21 45%12.21%2940.00/Wind 4 17 4 21 4.17%6.90/0.23/0.54%0.93/8.20/9.39%2.66/2.44%600.00/1.63/公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 9/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 4 17 4 21 Wind 4 17 4 21 3.59%1698.89 5.94%13602.49 3.52%17782.83 5.08%6348.73 1 2 Wind Wind Wind 4 17 4 21 5.49%3169.01 1.89%2237.16 4.68%2914.25 3 4 Wind Wind 05001,0001,5002,00005,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002022/4/22 2022/10/22 2023/4/22:-7.00%-6.00%-5.00%-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002022/4/22 2022/10/22 2023/4/22:-6.00%-5.00%-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 10/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 5 Wind 6 10 7 10 Wind Wind-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 11/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 8 10 9 10 Wind Wind Wind 4 17 4 21 500 0.19%4129.79 1.69%2639.48 3.45%953.78 100 0.39%7902.61 10 500 100 Wind-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,0007,0009,00011,00013,00015,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00027,0002022/4/21 2022/6/21 2022/8/21 2022/10/21 2022/12/21 2023/2/21 2023/4/21 100:500 公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 12/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 11%Wind 12%Wind-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 13/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 1/17.85-1.45-7.51%-65.00%/20.50-4.60-18.33%-61.32%/27.70 0.00 0.00%-15.03%MB/18.13 0.45 2.55%-26.77%MB/16.65 0.57 3.58%-25.42%/4.36-0.20-4.39%-2.24%LME/24650.00 1575.00 6.83%0.17 SHFE/185200.00-50.00-0.03%0.21 LME/8781.00-80.50-0.91%-10.35%SHFE/68660.00-1390.00-1.98%-1.53%LME/2402.50 62.50 2.67%-15.18%SHFE/18890.00 165.00 0.88%-6.53%LME/2151.00 32.00 1.51%-6.40%SHFE/15290.00-15.00-0.10%-0.62%LME/2718.00-86.00-3.07%-24.00%SHFE/21880.00-515.00-2.30%-9.02%LME/26150.00 1690.00 6.91%-33.29%SHFE/212550.00 14670.00 7.41%-26.69%/6.90-0.30-4.17%-13.75%/0.23 0.00 0.00%8.75%/1.63 0.00 0.00%-4.68%/0.93 0.01 0.54%16.98%/8.20 0.00 0.00%9.33%/8.19 0.00 0.00%9.17%/600.00-15.00-2.44%13.21%/2.66-0.28-9.39%16.19%COMEX/1994.10-23.60-1.17%8.96%SHFE/442.50-8.50-1.88%7.74%COMEX/25.16-0.31-1.22%4.03%SHFE/5609.00-177.00-3.06%4.59%/193.50 6.00 3.20%-22.29%/870.00-10.00-1.14%-37.63%/47.80 0.00 0.00%-32.87%65%/11.75 0.15 1.29%1.73%45%/2940.00 320.00 12.21%-31.31%Wind 公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 14/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 13 LME 14 SHFE Wind Wind 15 LME 16 SHFE Wind Wind 17 LME 18 SHFE Wind Wind 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21LME LME/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21SHFE SHFE/05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21LME LME/13,00013,50014,00014,50015,00015,50016,00016,50017,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21SHFE SHFE/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21LME LME/05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000050,000100,000150,000200,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21SHFE SHFE/公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 15/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 19 LME 20 SHFE Wind Wind 21 LME 22 SHFE Wind Wind 23 LME 24 SHFE Wind Wind 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5000500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21LME LME/05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21SHFE SHFE/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21LME/LME 050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21SHFE SHFE/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21LME LME/050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,00002,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21SHFE SHFE/公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 16/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 25 26 Wind Wind 27 28 MB Wind Wind 29 30 Wind Wind 0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21 Li2CO3 99.5%/0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21 LiOH 56.5%/0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,0002021/04/21 2022/04/21 2023/04/21/0510152025303540452021/04/21 2022/04/21 2023/04/21MB/MB/010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002021/04/21 2022/04/21 2023/04/21/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0002021/04/21 2022/04/21 2023/04/21/公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 17/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 31 32 Wind Wind 33 34 Wind Wind 35 36 Wind Wind 01234567892021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21 99.7%/05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002021/04/21 2022/04/21 2023/04/21/05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,0002021/04/21 2022/04/21 2023/04/21/050010001500200025002402903403904404902020/4/20 2021/4/20 2022/4/20 2023/4/20SHFE/COMEX/101520253001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002020/4/20 2021/4/20 2022/4/20 2023/4/20SHFE/COMEX/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000024681012142020/4/21 2021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/2165%/45%/公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 18/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 37 38 Wind Wind 2:/4264.79-79.84-1.84%-14.19%:/4022.35-76.51-1.87%-15.32%:/4353.85-73.10-1.65%-14.45%:/4117.73-106.64-2.52%-13.80%:/4404.49-44.10-0.99%-12.60%:/4632.14-54.13-1.16%-13.65%:/5139.27-92.62-1.77%-11.68%:/4291.03-71.93-1.65%-14.06%:/4307.27-67.48-1.54%-14.19%:/4166.95-84.89-2.00%-14.89%:/4277.96-80.81-1.85%-13.65%:/4196.21-65.01-1.53%-14.25%:/4372.60-54.24-1.23%-12.59%:/887.71-23.34-2.56%8.64%()/2,450.00-100.00-3.92%-12.50%-/2,890.00-80.00-2.69%-16.23%Wind 0510152025303540452020/4/21 2021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21/02040608010012005001000150020002020/4/21 2021/4/21 2022/4/21 2023/4/21/公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 19/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 39:40 Wind Wind 41 42 Wind Wind 43 44 Wind Wind 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:(:)0%20%40%60%80%100%2021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21(247):(247):02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:(:)02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/:(:)()010020030040050060070080001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21():(:/):(247):(:)()05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:(:/)公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 20/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 45 46 Wind Wind 47:48:Wind Wind 49:50:Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:(:/)0%20%40%60%80%100%2021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21(247):01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 21/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 51:52:Wind Wind 53:54:Wind Wind 55:56:Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 22/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 57:58:Wind Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0002021-04-21 2022-04-21 2023-04-21:/公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 23/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 59 GDP 60 CPI Wind Wind 61 62 PMI Wind Wind-30-20-1001020302012/092013/032013/092014/032014/092015/032015/092016/032016/092017/032017/092018/032018/092019/032019/092020/032020/092021/032021/092022/032022/09 GDP%GDP%GDP%GDP%-20246810122012/112013/052013/112014/052014/112015/052015/112016/052016/112017/052017/112018/052018/112019/052019/112020/052020/112021/052021/112022/05 CPI%CPI%CPI%CPI%02468101214162012/112013/052013/112014/052014/112015/052015/112016/052016/112017/052017/112018/052018/112019/052019/112020/052020/112021/052021/112022/05%354045505560657020122013201320142014201520152016201620172017201820182019201920202020202120212022 PMI PMI PMI PMI 公共联系人 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 24/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属 T able_ResearchT eam 2011 2021 2021 T a bl e _R a t i n gI ndus t r y 12 10%12-10%+10%12 10%T a bl e _R a t i n gC o m pa ny 12 15%12 5%-15%12-5%+5%12 5%T able_Address 26 47 6001 31 2 18 429 37 189 29 30 510627 518026 100045 200120-T able_LegalD isclai mer/4 T able_I mportant N o tices 1 2 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 25/25 T ab l e _ P ag eT e x t 投资策 略周 报|有色 金属/5 T a b l e _I nt e re s t D i s c l os ure(1)12 T able_Copyright 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