20230417_东方证券_电子行业证券研究报告：大模型增加存储需求行业景气底部反暖_22页.pdf

|AI OpenAI AI DRAM 8 NAND 3 2025 DDR DDR DDR4 DDR5 DDR 22 22 2724.84 2021 2161 SK 2022 75%820 TrendForce DRAM 23Q2 1015%NAND Flash 23Q2 510%23Q4 TrendForce 2023 DRAM-0.3%NAND 1.3%2023 DRAM 13.6%DRAM 6.5%DRAM-3.0%DRAM 7.18%NAND 26.0%NAND 20.3%NAND-2.6%NAND 9.6%IC(688008)(300223)(688110)(688123)(688416)(688766)(603986)(600667)(001309)(300042)(301308)(000021)/2023 04 17 021-63325888*8514 S0860514050005 BPT856 S0860522090002 AI PCB AI PCB 2023-04-07 2023-03-26 2023-03-13 2 1.5 1.1 DRAM NAND.5 1.2.6 1.3.7 2.IC.9 2.1 IC.9 2.1.1 NOR Flash MCU 9 2.1.2 9 2.1.3 SLC NAND 10 2.1.4 NOR Flash MCU 11 2.1.5 EEPROM NOR 12 2.1.6 EEPROM DDR5 13 2.2.13 2.2.1 13 2.2.2 14 2.2.3 14 3.15 4.AI.17 5.19 6.19 WUFUuNtOpMoPoQtQqNrOrQ6MaOaQtRrRoMpMkPrRmQlOqRoR6MpOsNwMpPmRMYrNtN 3 1.5 2.6 3 2021.8 4.8 5 2021.8 6 22Q4 DRAM.9 7 22Q4 NAND.9 8().9 9 22H1.9 10().10 11 2022.10 12().11 13 2021.11 14().11 15 22H1.11 16.12 17().12 18 2022.12 19().13 20 2021.13 21().14 22 2021.14 23().14 24 2021.14 25.15 26().15 27 2022.15 28.16 29 DRAM(GB).16 30 NAND GB.16 31 2017-2021 EB.17 32 2017-2023E.17 33 2022-2026E AI.17 34.17 4 35 HBM.18 36 HBM GDDR5.18 37 2019-2024 DRAM DRAM.19 1 NAND NOR.6 2.18 5 1.1.1 DRAM NAND U Volatile Memory Non-volatile Memory 1 1 RAM RAM CPU RAM RAM DRAM SRAM DRAM DRAM SRAM SRAM DRAM SRAM DRAM CPU 2 ROM ROM ROM MaskROM PROM EPROM EEPROM Flash Flash NAND Flash NOR Flash 6 NAND Flash NAND Flash ROM Flash NAND Flash NAND Flash NOR Flash CPU eXecute InPlace,XIP Flash RAM NOR Flash 1 NAND NOR NAND NOR 1-10 10 1.2 eMMC UFS ePOP eMCP SLC NAND LPDDR 2 1 7 eMMC UFS NAND Flash ePoP eMCP ePoP CPU eMCP eMMC LPDDR PCB LPDDR DRAM DRAM SLC NAND NAND Flash 2 SSD PSSD(PC)3 Micro SD SD CF NM Micro SD Micro SD 10 Micro SD GPS 5G 4 U.1.3 WSTS 2021 1.581.61 1,507.36 791.02 728.42,WSTS 2022 4799.9 3.7%1344.1 12.6%8 3 2021 4 WSTS WSTS DRAM NAND Flash CPU DRAM NAND Flash IC Insights 2021 DRAM 56%NAND Flash 41%(NOR Flash 2%)5 2021 IC Insights TrendForce 22Q4 DRAM 121.55 SK 95.8%22Q4 NAND Flash 102.87 SK 96.9%34.32%32.71%17.16%15.81%-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%0200400600800100012001400160018002014 20152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY56%41%2%1%DRAM NAND NOR 9 6 22Q4 DRAM 7 22Q4 NAND TrendForce TrendForce 2.IC 2.1 IC 2.1.1 NOR Flash MCU NOR Flash NAND Flash MCU 22H1 58.45%8()9 22H1 wind wind 2.1.2 32 CPU ASIC 45.10%27.70%23%4.20%SK 33.80%19.10%17.10%16.10%10.70%SK 0204060801000.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.007,000.008,000.009,000.002018 2019 2020 2021 22H1(%)58.45%36.53%4.48%0.54%10 CPU SoC 2022 74.92%SRAM DRAM Flash SRAM 产品品类丰富，包括了不同容量的同步 SRAM、异步 SRAM、高速 QDR SRAM 等 产品，10()11 2022 wind wind 2.1.3 SLC NAND NAND NOR DRAM NAND NOR DRAM 5G NAND 010020030040050060001000200030004000500060002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)74.92%14.23%8.85%1.76%0.21%0.03%11 12()13 2021 wind wind 2.1.4 NOR Flash MCU MCU NOR Flash ArmCortex-M0+32 MCU NOR AI+65/50nm NOR Flash 55nm MCU NOR Flash AI NOR Flash MCU 360 OPPO 14()15 22H1 wind wind NOR Flash 010203040506002004006008001000120014002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)58.16%16.53%15.72%6.97%2.54%0.07%NAND NOR MCP DRAM-40-2002040608010012014001002003004005006007002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)78.10%21.54%0.36%NOR Flash MCU 12 16 wind 2.1.5 EEPROM NOR NOR Flash EEPROM NOR Flash EEPROM NOR Flash OPPO vivo EEPROM ODM OPPO vivo 17()18 2022 wind wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021()-40-200204060801001201400200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)94.27%5.73%13 2.1.6 EEPROM DDR5 EEPROM EEPROM EEPROM 2019 EEPROM I2C SPI Micro-wire EEPROM SPD 400 200 19()20 2021 wind wind 2.2 2.2.1 NAND Flash-200204060801000200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)82.76%7.22%9.60%0.41%EEPROM 14 21()22 2021 wind wind 2.2.2 USB PNY 23()24 2021 wind wind 2.2.3 Flash DRAM-500501001502002503000200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 22H1(%)61.02%18.49%18.20%1.39%0.90%()(SSD)-20-10010203040050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 22H1(%)52.29%0.89%44.07%1.97%0.59%0.19%15 25 SSD FORESEE Lexar 2022 52.41%26()27 2022 wind wind 3.2022 2724.84 2021 2161 SK 2022 75%820 TrendForce Micron SK SK hynix DRAM 23Q1 DRAM 20%NAND Flash 22Q4 NAND Flash 2025%Enterprise SSD 2328%22Q4 NAND Flash 5.3%22.8%22Q4 NAND Flash 25.0%102.9-20-100102030400.002,000.004,000.006,000.008,000.0010,000.0012,000.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)52.41%24.47%18.06%5.00%0.06%16 2022 22Q4 565 8%SK 22Q4 56.65 38%22Q4 19.64 30.9%2022 66.4 19.71%TrendForce DRAM 23Q2 1015%NAND Flash 23Q2 510%23Q4 2021 28 wind TrendForce 2023 DRAM-0.3%NAND 1.3%2023 DRAM 602.9GB 17.4%DRAM 5.6GB 2.6%DRAM 10.6GB 5.5%DRAM 9.49%NAND 4166.5GB 39.3%NAND 219.0GB 9.8%NAND 610.3GB 9.8%NAND 15.39%29 DRAM(GB)30 NAND GB TrendForce TrendForce-50.00%-40.00%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%2020/12/312021/1/312021/2/282021/3/312021/4/302021/5/312021/6/302021/7/312021/8/312021/9/302021/10/312021/11/302021/12/312022/1/312022/2/282022/3/312022/4/302022/5/312022/6/302022/7/312022/8/312022/9/302022/10/312022/11/302022/12/312023/1/312023/2/282023/3/31 SK 17 4.AI AI DRAM 8 NAND 3 ChatGPT3 ChatGPT2 G 40T 100 Open AI 2012 AI 3-4 10 IDC 2025 48.6ZB 27.8%31 2017-2021 EB 32 2017-2023E TrendForce AIoT 2018 AI 2022 GPGPU General Purpose GPU AI 1%2023 ChatGPT AI 2023 8%2022-2026 10.8%27-35%5-10%AI 33 2022-2026E AI 34 TrendForce 0501001502002503003502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 EB 349446245270543459837000850032%14%3%10%17%21%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%01000200030004000500060007000800090002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E YoY0501001502002502022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E AI 30-35%20-25%5-10%27-30%70-75%25-30%25-30%5-10%15-20%2-5%20-25%20-25%5-10%0%20%40%60%80%100%CPU GPU 18 2 AI AI AI NF5280M6 NF5688M6 DGX A100 DGX H100 CPU AMD Epyc Rome 7742 Xeon Sapphire Rapids CPU 1-2 2 2 2 CPU DDR 32 RDIMM 32 DDR4 RDIMM/LRDIMM 2TB 2TB GPU/NVIDIA A800 A100 Tensor Core H100 Tensor Core GPU/8 8 8 GPU HBM/80GB HBM2e 80GB HBM2e 80GB HBM3 NAND 20 3.5 39 2.5 8 2.5 NVMe SSD/16 2.5 SATA/SAS SSD 2 1.92TB NVMe M.2 8 3.84TB NVMe U.2 2 1.9TB NVMe M.2 8 3.84TB NVMe U.2 AI AI HBM 3D DRAM GPU AI HBM GDDR5 3 HBM GDDR5 94%HBM DDR/GDDR HBM TrendForce 2023-2025 HBM 40-45%35 HBM 36 HBM GDDR5 AMD AMD AI AI 5G 2023 SK IT 2022 DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM 2023 DRAM DRAM TrendForce 2023 DRAM 37.6%DRAM 36.8%19 37 2019-2024 DRAM DRAM TrendForce DDR DDR DDR4 DDR5 DDR 5.IC(688008)(300223)(688110)(688123)(688416)(688766)(603986)(600667)(001309)(300042)(301308)(000021)6.PC AI 41.0%40.0%39.6%38.5%36.8%36.0%32.2%33.3%33.8%34.9%37.6%40.0%30.0%32.0%34.0%36.0%38.0%40.0%42.0%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024F DRAM DRAM 20 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai 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