20230418_东方证券_铝行业证券研究报告：水电铝旱季或难复产供给端支撑铝价上行_19页.pdf

|2023 1-3 8 19.5 2000 2022 4-6 203 2022 8-12 2000 96.6 9 2022 20%2023 1-3 2 0 2 2 4-6 203(6 0 1 0 6 8)(0 0 0 9 3 3)(0 0 2 5 3 2)(0 0 0 8 0 7)H(0 2 0 6 8)(0 1 3 7 8)/2023 04 18 021-63325888*6084 S0860520010002 BTB487 S0860523040001 2023 15 2023-04-17 2023 14 2023-04-10 2023 12 2023-03-28 2.4.6 1.1.6 1.2.7.11 2.1.11 2.2.12 2.3.14.16.16 0YBYyRnQnOrQoQnOsPsNnMbRaObRsQnNsQnOkPmMqMiNoPvMaQrRyQxNrNsNNZnPzQ 3 1 GWh.4 2.4 3 2021/.4 4 2022.5 5/.5 6.5 7.6 8 2022.6 9 2022.7 10.7 11.8 12 2022.8 13.9 14 6MW.9 15.10 16.10 17.10 18 8.11 19 8.11 20.12 21 3.13 22 3.13 23.14 24.14 25 9.15 26 9.15 27.15 1.12 2.14 3 2022.15 4 2021 16%2022 4043 59%2022 5477 6.35%80%2021 16%1 GWh IAI 13.8 7.0 2021 56%25%17%2 16 13.8 7.0 2 3 2021/IAI Rio Tinto CRU 90%90%90%90%90%90%89%80%82%10%10%10%10%10%10%7%15%16%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2020A 2021A 56%25%17%1%1%13.8 7.0 0246810121416 5 2022 6MW 24%20%9%5%2022 538/2018 345/2022 107/2018 50/4 2022 5/Wind Mysteel 6 Mysteel 24%20%9%5%5%4%33%01002003004005006002016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2017/2 2018/2 2019/2 2020/2 2021/2 2022/2 2023/2 6 1.1 2022 81.1%26.8%79.4%2022 81.1%26.8%79.4%7 Wind 6 10 12 4 2022 7 34.5%58.1%464.1 2022 3 197.1 8 2022 Wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%01002003004005003 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 7 2022 1-3 66%6 10 84.5%-91.4%1-3 62.1%-66.0%6 10 80.1%-90.6%11-12 10.7%-13.4%6 55.6%9 2022 Wind 2021 1178 751 1565 10 1.2 0%20%40%60%80%100%1-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 02004006008001000120014002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 _ _ 8=(W)(h)()1 58.6%20.3%2022 12 10 6026.8 58.6%10 2093 20.3%1842 17.9%11 12 2022 8 8 8 2016 2019 2012-2015 2016 2016 2019 2018 59%20%18%3%9 13 Meteomanz Wind=(W)(h)()(W)75 14 6MW Wind 2 3 3 3 2007-2022 R2=0.6311 4006008001,0001,2001,4002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000 h 8 mm,0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0002014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 6000kW 10 15 16 Meteomanz Wind Meteomanz Wind 3 2021-2022 9 9 9 2018 2021-2022 17 Meteomanz Wind 05001000150001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 h mm,R=0.6311600700800900100011001200130014001500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 mm h 6007008009001000110012003,6003,8004,0004,2004,4004,6004,800 h 9 mm,11 2.1 23Q1 2022 8 1-3 2000 2022-97.7%-82.5%-49.5%8 1-3 19.5 2000 2022-80%2023 1-3 2022 18 8 Meteomanz 19 8 Meteomanz 2022 9 600 540 128 64.6 2023 04 15 559.35 16.3 20 4-6 0501001502002503003501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2000 2023 2022 2021 2020 020040060080010001200140016001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2000 2023 2022 2021 2020 12 20 Wind 2022 9 203 2022 9 2023 2 2022 9 10 10%9 16 15%-30%2023 2 18 40%203 2022 4-6 1/2022 9 2023 2 330 15-30%40%90 15-30%40%35 15-30%20%101 15-30%40%556 115 203 2.2 23Q1 2022 3 1-3 2000+10.7%2022-31.6%3 2022 986.9 2000 9.6%2021 19.4%2022 4-6 5205405605806006201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 13 21 3 Meteomanz 22 3 Meteomanz 2022 12 90 2022 12 150 226.4 66%96.6 12 8.6 2022 4-6 01002003004005001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2000 2020 2021 2022 2023 020040060080010001200140016001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2000 2020 2021 2022 2023 14 2 2022 664 2022 704 2023 9 2022 12 12 2022 12 28 2023 1 5 66.7 20.6 8.9 14.7 64.4 19.9 8.5 14.2 22 6.8 2.9 4.9 15.8 4.9 2.1 3.5 57.5 17.8 7.6 12.7 226.4 70 30 50 2.3 23Q1 2023 1-3 65.2%50.3%90.7%46.0%107.9%82.0%2023 1-3 23 24 2022 2022 9 864.9 2000-12.3%2022 510.0 383.8 13.7%18.3%2022 380 370 9.03 2023 04 15 374.32 2.16 4.32 4-6 0204060801001201401 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 0204060801001201401 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 15 25 9 26 9 Meteomanz Meteomanz 27 Wind 11 2022 8 69.5 9 11 3 11 3 2022 12.5 2022 8 2022 9 20 2022 8 8 9 2022 11 25 2022 8 2022 9 12 2022 8 2022 9 69.5 0501001502002503001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2000 2020 2021 2022 2023 0200400600800100012001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2000 2020 2021 2022 2023 3683703723743763783803821 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 16 2023 1-3 2022 4-6 203(601068)(000933)(002532)(000807)H(02068)(01378)17 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告