20230420_招商证券_镁合金行业证券研究报告：青翠欲滴镁为体翘首展望有所期_44页.pdf

|2023 04 20/CR5 22.89%CR5 82%35%70%3C 2022 89.36 80%43%2025 2030 38.85 78.23 2022-2030 21.70%2025 2030 32.53 60.77 30.69%1.5 1 10 20 50 2 1800 65%3 4 3C 5%177 3.6 35167 4.1 31106 4.3%1m 6m 12m 0.9-5.4 1.0-3.3-14.6 1.2 1 2023-03-24 2 2023-03-08 3 2023-02-28 S1090517030002 S1090522090001 S1090519040002 S1090511040037 S1090519030001-20-1001020304050Apr/22 Aug/22 Dec/22 Mar/23(%)金属及材料 沪深300 2.6 1.6 1.6 2.6 2.7 1.8 2.9 3.10 4.11 5 3C.13.14 1.14 2.16 3.2022-2030 21.70%.17 4.19 5.23.26 1.26 2.28 3.29 4.31.34 1.34 2.36 3.38 4.3C.40 5.41.42.42 WUDWxOtOtQoPtNmPtOtMnM6MbP6MnPnNtRpMfQmMsOeRoMmM9PmNnRvPrMtMuOrRzQ 3 1%.6 2.6 3.7 4.8 5 2014-2022.8 6 2022.8 7 2014-2022.9 8 2022.9 9.9 10.9 11%.10 12.10 13.11 14 2015-2022.11 15.12 16.12 17.14 18.14 19.15 20%.15 21.17 22.18 23 2021.25 24 2016-2022.25 25 2020-2023/.26 26 2020-2023/.26 27 AM60B/.29 28.29 29 DMD-U.30 30 7000T.30 4 31 2013-2022.31 32.31 33 2013-2022.33 34.33 35 2020.33 36 2021.33 37 2017-2022().35 38 2017-2022.35 39 2022.36 40.36 41.36 42.36 43 2017-2021.37 44 2017-2022Q3().37 45 2017-2022.37 46 2022 Q3.38 47 2017-2022H1.38 48 2019-2022H1.39 49 2019-2022H1.39 50 2017-2022Q3.39 51 2017-2022Q3.39 52 2022.40 53 2017-2022H1.40 54.40 55 2017-2022.41 56 2017-2021.41 57 2017-2021.41 58 4000T.41 59 2017-2022.42 60 2017-2022.42 1.7 5 2 2021.10 3 2021.11 4.12 5.13 6 10%.14 7.15 8.16 9.16 10.17 11.19 12.20 13 2025.20 14 2030.21 15.22 16 2030.22 17.23 18.24 19.25 20 30.26 21.27 22.27 23.28 24.30 25.32 26.34 27.34 6 cr5 22.89%cr5 82%35%70%3C 1.1 Mg 2%8 6 130 5 iFind 2022 68 5.8 8.53%40 60.03 99 1%2 iFind 2 10 48.626.37.734.753.452.742.47 1.68 0.76氧 硅 铝 铁 钙 钠 钾 镁 氢33.82%8.53%5.44%4.26%4.12%2.94%1.62%39.26%俄罗斯 中国 斯洛伐克 澳大利亚 希腊 巴西 土耳其 其他 7 1(g*cm3)Gpa Mpa W*(m*k)(-1)7.8 210 200-500 46/2.7 70 200-350 247 2-5 1.13-2.00 15-25 100-250 20-50/1.8 45 180-300 157 30-60 1774 1886 130 1930 1200/20 90 3 2.8 4 1 2022 89.36 5.82%111.5 80.14%54.84 12%20.25 3.27%4.37 2021 2.82 8.88%61.37%2021 2022 5 2014-2022 6 2022 2022 49.77 4.30%27.28 2.75%13.72 26.34%6.76 12.09%3C-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%0204060801001201402014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022全国原镁产量 全球原镁产量国内产量同比增长61.37%22.66%3.16%4.89%7.92%陕西 山西 新疆 内蒙古 其他 9 7 2014-2022 8 2022 2 40 9 10 2021 137.61 31.03%3 7 27.25%0.5-2 2021 49 34 8 3 3 1 10 7.27%6.5 2023 2025 50 50-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%01020304050602014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022镁产品出口量 同比增长54.81%27.57%13.58%4.04%镁合金 镁锭 镁粉 其他镁产品 10 2 2021 1 10 2 6.5 3 5 4 5 5 5 6 3 7 3 8 2 9 2 10 1.2 42.7 2021 41%34%16%9%2022 39 17.37%11%12/iFind 3 2019 2020-2022 2022 30.69 3.49%41.00%34.00%16.00%9.00%镁合金 铝合金添加剂 海绵钛 钢铁脱硫0.000.501.001.502.002.503.0001000020000300004000050000600002020-06-162020-07-302020-09-142020-10-282020-12-112021-01-262021-03-112021-04-262021-06-092021-07-232021-09-072021-10-212021-12-062022-01-192022-03-042022-04-192022-06-022022-07-182022-08-312022-10-142022-11-292023-01-122023-02-27现货价:铝 现货价:镁 镁铝比价 11 13 14 2015-2022 iFind CR5 80%20 35%3 2021 1 20 2 10 3 6 4 6 5 4 6 3 7 2.5 8 1 52.5 4 70%20 70%3C 20%图 1 镁合金的 生产流程 资料来源：招商证券-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%05101520253035402015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022镁合金产量 同比增长 12 15 16 4 1-38000/2 10 7 19 1,800 3 4 200 120 12 120 50000 10000 5000 5000 3 6 20 2 50KW 5 20 1000 2 5 4 2.5 3 2 3 6 1988 11 100 3200 13 6.5 3 5 70.00%20.00%10.00%汽车 3C 航空航天和其他 13 7 1998/3C 20 1000 30 3 10 15 8 iFind 5 3C 100 25kg 5 30%90 3C 3C 14 17 18 2025 2030 35.32 71.12 38.85 78.23 2022-2030 21.70%2025 2030 32.53 60.77 30.69%1.10%6 10%4%-10%6%-8%50%10%5%8%20%-30%10%5%-8%10%74%8%8%10%2016 65%15 19 20%7 2023.2 2022 2022.7 2022.7 2030 40%2020 25%20%2021 2035 2020.10 2019 2019.12 2019 2019.10 2016.12 85.00%86.00%87.00%88.00%89.00%90.00%91.00%92.00%93.00%94.00%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021机动车四项污染物排放总量汽车四项污染物排放总量汽车排放占比74.00%8.00%8.00%10.00%公路 铁路 水路 航空 16 2.80 62 8%10 0.3 15%25%40%50%55%60%8 10%40%-60%60%-75%25%-35%5kg 1-3kg 15kg 5-10kg 43%9 kg kg 22 16 27%21.5 15 30%3 2 33%/23/36 18 22%/50%5 1.8 64%14.4 7.3 49%2.2 1.2 48%2.4 1.4 44%1.4 0.9 36%2.3 1.4 39%5 1.1 78%2.5 0.7 72%2022-2029 2016 10 2020 2025 2030 15kg 25kg 45kg 1.2%2%4%2022 79 CM 3.5kg 15kg 17 2021 2022 680 25.6%2020 136.6 397.8%2030 50%3.2022-2030 21.70%2022 2702.1 2021 20.96kg 70%14.67 3.5kg 2022 9.46 2022 64%2022 25.6%3.5kg 7kg 2.3kg 2025 2030 35%50%15kg 25kg 5kg 10kg 1%1%1.1 2025 2030 35.32 71.12 38.85 78.23 2022-2030 21.70%21 10 2022 2025E 2030E 2702.1 2784 2926 25.6%35%50%2010.36 1809.6 1463 691.74 974.4 1463 2.3 5 10 7 15 25 4.62 9.048 14.63 7.22 13.50 20.32 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.002022 2025E 2030E燃油车原镁消耗量 新能源车原镁消耗量 18 4.84 14.62 36.58 7.57 21.81 50.80 9.47 41.75 73.15 14.78 35.32 71.12 64%67%72%1.1 1.1 1.1 7.94 14.85 22.35 8.32 24.00 55.88 16.26 38.85 78.23 2022 8501.67 14%1190 2022 106 2022 30.42 2.1kg/17.85 59%5kg 1.63kg 2025 2030 12kg 20kg 4kg 8kg 20%30%2025 2030 79.12 159.39 87.03 175.33 2022-2030 23.07%22 CleanTechnica 0204060801001201401601802002022 2025E 2030E燃油车原镁消耗量 新能源车原镁消耗量 19 11 2022 2025E 2030E 8501.67 8759.28 9206.09 14.00%20%30%7311.44 7007.42 6444.26 1190.23 1751.86 2761.83 1.63 4 8 5 12 20 11.92 28.03 51.55 20.20 45.21 76.95 5.95 21.02 55.24 10.09 33.91 82.44 17.87 49.05 106.79 30.29 79.12 159.39 59%62%67%1.1 1.1 1.1 22.22 49.73 84.64 11.10 37.30 90.69 33.31 87.03 175.33 CleanTechnica 4.1kg 3-5kg 80%100%2025 2030 85%90%20 2025 2030 2.51 2.63 2.76 2.9 12 2022 2025E 2030E 2702.1 2784 2926 kg 0.9 0.9 0.9 80%85%90%1.95 2.13 2.37 80%85%90%2.43 2.51 2.63 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.68 2.76 2.90 5kg 70%5%2025 2030 15%60%75%85%2025 2030 9.68 35.92 10.65 39.51 13 2025 kg kg kg kg 4.57 2784 15%1.91 75%2.54 1.1 2.80 0.33 2784 15%0.14 75%0.18 1.1 0.20 1.5 2784 15%0.63 75%0.84 1.1 0.92 0.86 2784 15%0.36 75%0.48 1.1 0.53 21 2.03 2784 15%0.85 75%1.13 1.1 1.24 2.88 2784 15%1.20 75%1.60 1.1 1.76 1.75 2784 15%0.73 75%0.97 1.1 1.07 2.16 2784 15%0.90 75%1.20 1.1 1.32 1.31 2784 15%0.55 75%0.73 1.1 0.80 9.68 10.65 14 2030 kg kg kg kg 4.57 2926 60%8.02 85%9.44 1.1 10.38 0.33 2926 60%0.58 85%0.68 1.1 0.75 1.5 2926 60%2.63 85%3.10 1.1 3.41 0.86 2926 60%1.51 85%1.78 1.1 1.95 2.03 2926 60%3.56 85%4.19 1.1 4.61 2.88 2926 60%5.06 85%5.95 1.1 6.54 1.75 2926 60%3.07 85%3.61 1.1 3.98 2.16 2926 60%3.79 85%4.46 1.1 4.91 1.31 2926 60%2.30 85%2.71 1.1 2.98 35.92 39.51 0.01%40%2025 22 1%2030 5%2025 2030 45%50%2025 2035 1.11 5.27 1.22 5.79 15 2022 2025E 2030E 2702.1 2784 2926 kg 18 18 18 0.01%1%5%0.005 0.50 2.63 40%45%55%0.005 1.11 5.27 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.01 1.22 5.79 15kg 5-15kg 5kg 40%50%70%0.5%5%20%2030 55%75%85%5%15%50%2030 34.49 37.94 16 2030 kg kg kg kg 16 2926 5%2.34 60%4.26 1.1 4.68 15 2926 5%2.19 60%3.99 1.1 4.39 2 2926 50%2.93 90%3.44 1.1 3.79 1.8 2926 50%2.63 90%3.10 1.1 3.41 23 7.3 2926 15%3.20 80%4.27 1.1 4.70 1.2 2926 50%1.76 60%3.19 1.1 3.51 1.4 2926 50%2.05 60%3.72 1.1 4.10 1.4 2926 50%2.05 60%3.72 1.1 4.10 1.1 2926 50%1.61 60%2.93 1.1 3.22 0.7 2926 50%1.02 60%1.86 1.1 2.05 34.49 37.94 2030 71.52 78.67。100kg 5.2023 15 60%15%5%20%17 24 4 1 25%50%2 3 4 18 16kg/2 21-25kg/2 60 2 40 2 250MPa 300MPa 45GPa 72GPa 3%10%12%x x 2022 29225 28416 25 23 2021 24 2016-2022 2022 1%2025 2030 5%10%16kg 1%2021 2025 2030 70%80%90%2025 2030 29.57 55.25 32.53 60.77 CAGR 30.69%19 2022 2025E 2030E 28416 29570 31078 1%5%10%284.16 1478.5 3107.8 16 16 16 70%80%90%6.5 29.57 55.25 1.1 1.1 1.1 7.14 32.53 60.77 60.00%20.00%15.00%5.00%木胶合板 铝模板 钢模板 塑料模板-10.00%-8.00%-6.00%-4.00%-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%050001000015000200002500030000350002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022建筑模板需求量 同比增长 26 1.5 1.90%1988-2018 25%-39%26%-47%73%-74%66%-67%20 30/t/t/t/Kwh 1988 14-18 1.4-2 16-18 2900-3600 1998 12-14 1.2-1.3 11-13.4 1200-1900 2008 10.5-11 1.08-1.1 5.6-6.2 1000-1500 2018 10.5-10.9 1.04-1.07 4.3-4.7 1000-1200 2022 23.43 31.76%80%90%2022 75%2022 17.57 23.82%2022 9 19522 1 21 2018 5%0.2 15 50 2022 8484 937 5500K 2825 25 2020-2023/26 2020-2023/01002003004005006007008009000200040006000800010000120001400016000180002020-01-022020-03-022020-04-222020-06-162020-08-072020-09-282020-11-252021-01-152021-03-152021-05-102021-06-302021-08-192021-10-192021-12-082022-02-072022-03-292022-05-252022-07-152022-09-052022-11-022022-12-222023-02-20现货价:硅铁 环渤海动力煤:综合平均价格(5500K)050010001500200025003000350040002020-06-162020-07-242020-09-022020-10-122020-11-192020-12-292021-02-052021-03-172021-04-262021-06-032021-07-132021-08-202021-09-292021-11-082021-12-162022-01-252022-03-042022-04-132022-05-232022-06-302022-08-092022-09-162022-10-262022-12-052023-01-122023-02-21 27 iFind iFind 2 2022 2.6 23.82%688 3 4 0.5 21(/)50 10.17 508.5 2.60%8424 1 8424 43.15%937 4.28 4010.36 20.54%2825 0.2 565 2.89%4 15 60 0.31%0.5 1045 522.5 2.68%688 1 688 3.52%4743.64 1 4743.64 24.30%19522 100.00%iFind mysteel 250 2000 20%22642.3 22(/)250 10.17 2542.5 11.23%8424 1 8424 37.20%937 4.28 4010.36 17.71%2825 0.2 565 2.50%4 15 60 0.26%0.5 1045 522.5 2.31%825.6 1 825.6 3.65%28 5692.37 1 5692.37 25.14%22642.3 100.00%iFind 2.4 3 2016 10 80%14470kWh 0.5/1200 1200 200 10 2500 23(/)1200 4 4800 22.80%14470 0.5 7235 34.37%2500 1 2500 11.87%825.6 1 825.6 3.92%5692.37 1 5692.37 27.04%21052.97 100.00%29 5 40000Kwh 2021 3.3 AZ91D AM60B AM50A 27 AM60B/28 iFind 2022 1-6 48.39%20.14%31.48%4.5 3.5 2 0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450002020-01-022020-02-192020-03-302020-05-112020-06-182020-07-292020-09-072020-10-232020-12-022021-01-122021-03-012021-04-092021-05-242021-07-022021-08-112021-09-222021-11-102021-12-202022-04-082022-06-062022-07-142022-11-2245.00%35.00%20.00%直接材料 制造费用 人工费用 30 29 DMD-U 30 7000T 24 2022.10 120 180 2022.10 5 5 2 1 2 2022.9()3 3C()31 2022.6 2022.4 2021.12 30 2021.8 2021.3 4.1.5 1.3 2021 4.38 5%2022 55943 kWh 4021 13500kWh 9.7%31 2013-2022 32 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0000%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022全国电解铝产量 全国电解铝产能产能利用率0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000原铝:冶炼能耗:中国:水电 原铝:冶炼能耗:中国:煤炭 32 iFind iFind 4500 2022 4423 90%60%90 2022 9 15%-30%20%2023 2 65-80 2022 40 33%25 2022.6 2022.4 2022.2 2022.1 2025 30%2021.11 2021.10 2030 2020.10 2020 2020.3 2022 1970 153.8 15%2022 9 22%2022 60%2023 3 9 33 33 2013-2022 34 iFind iFind 2022 57.14%32%22%12%11%Bloomberg 2020 25%23%21%35 2020 36 2021 Bloomberg 2021 7950 2025 2030 250 350kg 65%70%75%80%85%90%95%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022全球铝产量 全球铝产能 产能利用率57.14%2.08%5.19%2.21%33.37%中国 美国 俄罗斯 澳大利亚 其他国家25%23%12%11%9%8%6%6%建筑 交通 电力 机械设备铝箔 包装 耐用品 其他32%22%12%11%23%建筑 交通 电力 包装 其他 34 0.5-0.75 1.9 5G 2023 1800 65%3C 1.1993 2007 10/20/3.8/2021 12 28 30 2023 2025 50 50 20 26 10 5 2023 10 30 2023 27 18 100 2018 9 30 15 2020 11 2023 35 2 8000 100 2020 6 22 8 2 1000 2020 3 200 2021 12 3 2022 11 10 5 2022 11 250 2022 11 3C 2022 91.05 12.17%6.11 23.94%2022 37 2017-2022()38 2017-2022 iFind iFind 2022 87.83 15.96%2.30%33.08 29.14%6.40%2022 69.02 18.81 5.62%-7.27%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%01020304050607080901002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022营业收入 同比增长-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0123456789102017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022归母净利润 同比增长 36 39 2022 40 iFind iFind 10 2018 2022 99 2.2001 2006 2003 2015 2020 55%1800 65%41 42 2021 1674.83 12.63%1501.97 14.32%-37.66%12.14%23.11%15.83%8.15%1.08%2.04%镁合金 镁合金深加工 铝合金 铝合金深加工中间合金 金属锶 其他0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022主营业务毛利率 镁合金毛利率 37 OEM AM OEM 43 2017-2021 iFind 2022 116.76 37.05%2022 2022 5.94 8.18-9.18 145.38%-175.38%44 2017-2022Q3()45 2017-2022 iFind iFind 2022E 2022 102.15 39.64%2022 10.49 16.49%0.94%2022 31.02 22.61%41.22 36.63%80.00%81.00%82.00%83.00%84.00%85.00%86.00%87.00%88.00%89.00%90.00%91.00%050010001500200025002019 2020 2021镁合金压铸件产量 镁合金压铸件销量 产销比-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0204060801001201402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-3营业收入 同比增长-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0246810122017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E归母净利润 同比增长 38 46 2022 Q3 47 2017-2022H1 iFind iFind 3.2003 2022 2022 155.43 145.06 44.78%2022 57.84%75.61%SeaLink 2022 16.09%15.3%SeaLink 2021 25%2020 3 87.49%12.51%汽车零部件 通航飞机0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1汽车零部件营收 汽车零部件毛利率 39 48 2019-2022H1 49 2019-2022H1 iFind iFind 2022 2.01 27.29%2021 2022 4425.95 7.10%50 2017-2022Q3 51 2017-2022Q3 iFind iFind 2022 1.25 13.64%6503.25 52.21%2022 4617.18 37.07%11.11%4512.25 30.62%20.46%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002503003504004502019 2020 2021 2022H1公司镁合金产品产量 公司镁合金产品销量公司整体产能利用率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2019 2020 2021 2022H1客户集中度 供应商集中度-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%00.511.522.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1营业收入 同比增长-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%010002000300040005000600070002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1归母净利润 同比增长 40 52 2022 53 2017-2022H1 iFind iFind 2020 5 2021 7 4.3C,2011 2.3 LG 2017 54 2022 38.33 3.94%1.56 49.09%2021 PC 8651.74 52.21%30.26%17.53%镁合金压铸 铝合金压铸 模具0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%00.20.40.60.811.21.42017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1镁合金业务收入 镁合金毛利率 41 1214 17.06%14.96%55 2017-2022 56 2017-2021 iFind iFind 2021 12 10 5.7 500 2022 5.1993 5 LED 2021 5588.35 5.61%5792.38 5.88%57 2017-2021 58 4000T iFind 2022 2022 11.39 49.41%2022 396.24-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0510152025303540452017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022营业收入 归母净利润 净利润同比0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002017 2018 2019 2020 2021总产量 同比增长0100020003000400050006000700080002017 2018 2019 2020 2021轻合金压铸件产量 轻合金压铸件销量 42 394.06%2022 16 50%280-420(59 60 2022E)59 2017-2022 60 2017-2022 iFind iFind 1 2 3 4 5 6-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0246810121416182017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E营业收入 同比增长-1500%-1200%-900%-600%-300%0%300%600%900%-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E归母净利润 同比增长 43 10 wind 11 2017 2021 CFA FRM 2021 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告