20230411_华创证券_汽车行业证券研究报告：行业将进入主动去库阶段把握1+2类机会_17页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 04 11 1+2 3 208+20%+25%199+9%+23%159+0.3%+14%3 3 199+9%+23%+12%157+11%+28%1Q 29 13 20-40 250 160 1 506-7%-22%404-14%-28%A+-15%+6 7-8 8 3 62+35%+25%31%20.6 8.9 4.0 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.0 4+108%+60%2Q+19%+20%+3.9%+4.6%900/+39%741/+42%1.L7 S7 15-20 SUV 2.2-3Q 2-3 EPS 2-3Q+2-3+30%+EPS PE 2-3Q 2-3 021-20572543 S0360519070003 021-20572532 S0360522030001%()214 0.03()32,410.88 3.37()23,599.79 3.24%1M 6M 12M-1.7%1.7%5.5%-5.2%-8.6%8.5%2023-03-10 2023-03-08 Model Q 2023-02-21-14%5%25%45%22/04 22/06 22/09 22/11 23/01 23/042022-04-112023-04-10 300 2009 1210 2.4.4.8.10.11.12 XVEVzQtOtQnMpRsRrMpQnMaQcMaQnPrRmOsRiNqQsOlOpOpO8OmNnQuOnQzQwMqNoN 2009 1210 3 1%.4 2%.4 3%.4 4%.4 5.5 6 2023.6 7%.7 8%.7 9%.7 10%.7 11 1Q23-.8 12 2015.8 13 2015.9 14 2015.9 15 3.9 16 2.9 17 GAIN.10 18 GAIN.10 19 3%.10 20 3.10 21 1-5 2023 3.11 22 6-10 2023 3.11 23 PE PE 2023 4 7.12 24 PE PE 2023 4 7.12 25 PB PB 2023 4 7.12 26 PB PB 2023 4 7.12 27 300 2023 4 7.13 28 2023 4 7.13 2009 1210 4 1%2%4-12 3-12 3%4%9.3%-50%-25%0%25%50%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10.3%-60%-30%0%30%60%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.5%-80%-40%0%40%80%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-3.9%-60%-30%0%30%60%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 5 5 Wind A 2009 1210 6 6 2023 2023 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2,089 406 496 542 645 2,064 404 490 538 633 2,037 402 484 528 622 5.9%-13.7%21.5%1.9%14.8%4.6%-14.2%20.0%1.0%12.7%3.3%-14.5%18.7%-0.7%10.7%2,408 506 576 625 761 2,413 506 564 605 738 2,353 506 557 574 716 6.3%-7.1%21.3%-4.5%17.3%3.9%-7.1%18.8%-7.6%13.8%1.3%-7.1%17.4%-12.3%10.4%2009 1210 7 7%8%9%10%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0%10%20%30%40%50%0%60%120%180%240%300%01020304050%2009 1210 8 11 1Q23-12 2015-90-45045902016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E0.00.51.01.52.02.5 2009 1210 9 13 2015 14 2015 15 3 16 2-50 100 150 200 250 300-50 100 150 200 250 30062.40 4050607080901.93 0.51.01.52.02.53.0 2009 1210 10 17 GAIN 18 GAIN 1 MSRP-/*100 2 2020 7-8 1/-1*100 2 2020 7-8 19 3%20 3 1.94-10-50510 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 17.92-10-5051015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%2,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000 2009 1210 11 21 1-5 2023 3 22 6-10 2023 3 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2009 1210 12 23 PE PE 2023 4 7 24 PE PE 2023 4 7 Wind Wind 25 PB PB 2023 4 7 26 PB PB 2023 4 7 Wind Wind 24.6 01020304050 300 25.9 020406080 3.5 0123456 300 2.3 0246810 2009 1210 13 27 300 2023 4 7 28 2023 4 7 Wind Wind 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,0000.01.53.04.56.0 vs 300 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,0001.01.52.02.53.03.5 vs 2009 1210 14 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 15 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 16(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告