20230411_华创证券_机械行业证券研究报告：三因素共振工业母机迎国产化大机遇_28页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 04 11 2020 2022 57.2 2011 86 66%2023 2000 1 2 2022 7 2023 75%2024 3 2023 3 24 4 2022 10 14 5 2022 021-20572562 S0360523020001 祎 S0360523030001%()567 0.08()45,928.31 4.78()34,079.93 4.68%1M 6M 12M-0.5%12.5%10.4%-4.0%2.2%13.4%20230403-20230407 2023-04-09 2023 2023-02-10-16%-1%14%28%22/04 22/06 22/09 22/11 23/01 23/042022-04-112023-04-10 300 2009 1210 2022 57.2 2011 86 66%2023 1 2 2022 7 2023 75%2024 3 2023 3 24 4 2022 10 14 5 2022 YWCXwPnQpMoPpRtQnQsNoPaQ9R6MsQpPoMmPeRnNrNkPoPmOaQpPuMxNpMmOwMnQpO 2009 1210 3.6.6 2000.7.9 8-10.9 2023.9.10.12.15 601882.SH.15 688697.SH.17 688305.SH.18 300083.SZ.20 688558.SH.22.23.24 2009 1210 4 1.6 2%.6 3 2021%.7 4 2021%.7 5.7 6.8 7.8 8 2022.8 9%.9 10 2023.10 11.11 12.11 13.12 14%.12 15%.12 16%.12 17.13 18.13 19.14 20.14 21%.15 22 2021.15 23%.16 24%.16 25%.16 26%.16 27.17 28/.17 29%.17 30%.17 31%.18 32%.18 33.19 2009 1210 5 34.19 35.19 36.20 37.21 38%.21 39.21 40%.22 41%.22 42.22 43%.23 44%.23 45%.23 46.23 47 WIND.24 2009 1210 6 2022 1815 1180 65%635 35%1 2002-2019 345 735 4.55%2020 592 2021 709 2%金 属加工 机床金属切削机床数控加工中心立式加工中心卧式加工中心龙门加工中心车铣复合加工中心及其他车、铣、磨、镗、钻床（单一功能）金属成形机床折弯机压力机冲压机等-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0100200300400500600700800900 YoY 2009 1210 7 2021 709 218 31 90 89 13 CR5 73 2021 703 236 34%91 45 13 6 53%3 2021%4 2021%2000 2015 3-4 2021 1847 25.6%2022 5,31%,13%,13%,9%,8%,27%,34%,13%,6%,6%,5%,37%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%050010001500200025002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY 2009 1210 8 2021 2022 4.3%2022 3.4%6 7 8 2022-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%02004006008001000120014002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%01002003004005006007008009002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY 32%25%22%8%3%3%7%2009 1210 9 8-10 2001 WTO 2000-2011 17.7 86.0 15.5%2011 2012-2016 70 2017-2019 2019 41.6 2011 86 52%2020 2022 57.2 5.0%9%Wind 2023 2011 Hodrick-Prescott 2004 2005 2-2007 2 2007 2-2010 4 2010 4-2013 2 2013 2-2016 7 2016 7-2019 4 3-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0102030405060708090100 Yoy%2009 1210 10 10 2023 1957 90%80%2009 1210 11 11 2011 3C 12 Wind 2017 2017-2021 28.1%4-7%040801201602002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021国企营业 收入（亿元）民企营业 收入（亿元）2009 1210 12 13 14%Wind Wind 25-40%5-15%15%16%Wind Wind/0102030405060702015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-0.0500.050.10.150.20.252010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2009 1210 13 17 4 3 18 2022/124/210 2018-2022 11.4%2019-2022 2022 85.5 2009 1210 14 19 2019 20 NSK NSK THK NSK SKF NACHI THK 2018 82%65%6%-500501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 15 21%2021 1847 2021 51.2 2.77%2021 DMG MORI 153.87 60.53 63.98 31.97 1=0.052 1=7.50 22 2021 2021 512269 2.77%267876 1.45%242845 1.31%166972 0.90%124092 0.67%78881 0.43%46071 0.25%38465 0.21%32184 0.17%23337 0.13%2021 18470000 601882.SH 2022 2002 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018%2009 1210 16 2016-2022 10.1 31.77 21.1%0.63 5.21 42.2%2022 2022 2022 31.77 16.37%5.21 40.30%23%24%Wind Wind 90%2019 30-35%25-30%2022 16.9%2021 4.61pct 25%26%Wind Wind 20182022 1235 4422 37.56%2021 89%2018-2022 138.53/153.01/147.97/158.13/0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%051015202530352016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Yoy%-50%0%50%100%150%200%01234562016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Yoy%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2009 1210 17 27 28/30 2022 9 2022 11 500/688697.SH 2006 200 22 2022 18.46 7.8%2.59 53.7%29%30%Wind Wind 05001000150020002500300035002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0204060801001201401601802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%024681012141618202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Yoy%0%50%100%150%200%250%00.511.522.532017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Yoy%2009 1210 18 90%25-30%2022 14.08%2021 4.24pct 31%32%Wind Wind 2022 40 688305.SH 2014-2019 04 2011 2013 2015 04 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3(%)(%)2009 1210 19 33 2017-2022 0.75 3.15 33.24%34 35 Wind GNC60 2011 2012 04 840D-1-0.500.511.522.533.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 20/2012 04 36/TNC640 OSP-P300M GNC62 X/Y/Z 800/800/550 mm 925/950/600 mm 800/800/550 mm 800 630 mm 800 630 mm 800 630 mm 15000 HSK-A63 rpm 10000 HSK-A63 rpm 18000 HSK-A63 rpm A A 130-120+90 130 XYZ/0.008mm/0.005mm 0.008mm/0.005mm 0.005/0.003mm AC/6/5 8/5 5/3 300083.SZ 3C 2005 3C 2015 2018 3C 3C V 2021 10000 3C 2010 2009 1210 21 2021 80000 37 2021 52.6 51.4%51.2 97.4%2016-2021 27.1%38%39 Wind Wind 2021 2.47 17.6%17.22%2021 12 31 697 40 526 131 61 V-200U V-400U V-650U HMC-63-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0102030405060702016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01020304050602016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Yoy 2009 1210 22 40%41%Wind Wind 688558.SH 1999 2011-2015 2016 42 2022 11.62 2.22%1.91 4.96%2022 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%5%5%00.511.522.52018 2019 2020 2021%2009 1210 23 43%44%Wind Wind 73.2%2021 8.33 1.73 1.17 73.2%15.2%10.3%2020 2.46 32.9%45%46 Wind Wind 2011 2015-2019 2020 2022 57.2 2011 86 66%2023 2000-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%024681012142016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Yoy%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%00.511.522.52016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Yoy%0%20%40%60%80%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%00.511.522.533.544.552016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%2009 1210 24 2000 1 2 2022 7 2023 75%2024 3 2023 3 24 4 2022 10 14 5 2022 47 WIND EPS PE 21A 22E 23E 24E 21A 22E 23E 24E 601882.SH 36.98 0.71 1.00 1.22 1.49 52.02 37.08 30.30 24.74 688697.SH 28.92 0.52 0.79 1.04 1.29 56.05 36.48 27.72 22.44 688305.SH 97.09 0.78 0.92 1.32 1.90 124.15 106.02 73.67 51.21 300083.SZ 9.37 0.30 0.41 0.59 0.76 31.40 22.89 16.00 12.41 688558.SH 40.79 1.52 1.62 2.00 2.44 26.86 25.16 20.39 16.72 Wind 2022 2023 4 10 1 2 3 4 5 2009 1210 25 CFA 5 7 2023 2019 2019 2022 Choice 祎 2023 2009 1210 26 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 27(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告