20230409_国盛证券_建筑装饰行业证券研究报告：建筑央企对比研究探相似、辨差异_23页.pdf

|2023 04 09 50%80%8 2017 50%2017-2021 80%2021 96%1 60%48%20%75%2 a 50%30%ROE b 30%-50%15%-25%ROE c 3+PPP ROE PE8.9X PB1.12X 2023 PE8.6X PB0.75X PE5.3X PB0.75X PE4.4X PB0.58X PE4.2X PB0.71X PE7.1X PB0.90X PE9.6X PB1.10X PE11.5X PB1.11X S0680518030004 S0680518010003 S0680519070003 S0680122060010 1+2023-04-02 2 AI 2023-03-26 3 2023-03-19-32%-16%0%16%2022-04 2022-08 2022-12 2023-04 300 2023 04 09 P.2 EPS P E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 601117.SH 0.76 0.89 1.09 1.30 12.74 10.90 8.86 7.42 601800.SH 1.11 1.18 1.31 1.47 10.11 9.52 8.58 7.66 601390.SH 1.12 1.26 1.45 1.63 6.90 6.09 5.33 4.74 601186.SH 1.82 1.96 2.21 2.45 5.39 5.00 4.44 4.00 601668.SH 1.23 1.33 1.46 1.61 4.99 4.59 4.18 3.80 601618.SH-0.40 0.50 0.57 0.65 9.97 8.13 7.12 6.17 601669.SH 0.50 0.68 0.76 0.85 14.53 10.77 9.60 8.55 601868.SH 0.16 0.18 0.22 0.24 15.83 14.01 11.48 10.09 Wind*EPS Wind 0YEVvMsPtQrQrPmPtOtMmN7NbPaQmOpPsQsRfQqQnRkPnMmM6MmMzQNZoMxPxNmQmR 2023 04 09 P.3 1.5 2.6 3.7 3.1.7 3.2.8 3.3.10 4.15 4.1.15 4.2.17 4.3.19 5.20 6.21 1.5 2.5 3.5 4 ROE.6 5.6 6.7 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.8 11.9 12 ROE.9 13.10 14.10 15.11 16.12 17 2021.12 18.13 19.13 20.14 21.15 22.15 23 PE-TTM.16 24 PB-MRQ.16 25 PE 300.16 26 PB 300.16 27.17 28.17 29 ROE.17 2023 04 09 P.4 30.18 31.18 32.18 33.19 34.19 35 2020-2022.20 36 2017-2021.20 37.20 38.21 2023 04 09 P.5 1.50%80%8 2017 50%2023 4 4 10746 52.9%2017-2021 80%2021 95.5%1 Wind 2 3 Wind Wind ROE ROE 3 CAGR 16%/10%2021 ROE 16%9%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%020004000600080001000012000140002017-012017-032017-052017-072017-092017-112018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-03 80.5%81.0%81.5%82.0%82.5%83.0%83.5%84.0%84.5%85.0%85.5%86.0%0100002000030000400005000060000700002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020040060080010001200140016002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 04 09 P.6 4 ROE Wind*2023/4/4 2021 2022 2.5/2023 04 09 P.7 6 3.3.1.80%60%/48%75%7 Wind 2023 04 09 P.8 8 Wind 3.2.a 50%30%b 30%-50%15%-25%PPP BOT c 9 10 Wind Wind PPP 2021 PPP 2022 35.8%31.8%28.6%24.6%24.3%17.3%10.7%7.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%56%59%43%44%28%34%25%23%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2023 04 09 P.9 11 Wind ROE 1 ROE 16.1%2 ROE 3 ROE 4 ROE 12 ROE Wind 公司2021年经营性现金流净额（亿元）2022年经营性现金流净额（亿元）经营现金流变动2021年投资性现金流净额（亿元）2022年投资性现金流净额（亿元）投资现金流变动经营+投资现金流变动中国电建 156.2-464.3-中国交建-126.4 4.4 130.8-528.2-466.8 61.4 192.2中国能建 88.4 79.3-9.1-186.5-490.3-303.7-312.8中国中铁 130.7 435.5 304.8-774.6-843.9-69.3 235.5中国建筑 143.6-324.4-中国铁建-73.0 561.3 634.4-610.7-556.5 54.2 688.6中国中冶 176.4 181.5 5.1-125.7-65.6 60.1 65.2中国化学 22.4 15.0-7.4-31.7-56.8-25.1-32.6归母净利率 总资产周转率 权益乘数 归母净利率 总资产周转率 权益乘数2011 16.3%2.8%1.07 5.43 4,828 4,517 832 2011 12.9%1.7%1.18 6.33 4,574 3,866 6112012 16.5%2.8%0.99 6.06 5,715 5,788 955 2012 12.6%1.5%1.07 6.62 4,843 4,518 6832013 18.6%3.0%0.95 6.53 6,810 7,177 1099 2013 13.5%1.7%1.14 6.76 5,868 5,169 7642014 17.6%2.8%0.94 6.62 8,000 8,515 1285 2014 13.2%1.7%1.01 6.81 5,920 5,850 8602015 17.0%3.0%0.88 6.50 8,806 9,970 1535 2015 12.5%2.0%0.91 6.48 6,005 6,565 10132016 16.7%3.1%0.78 6.88 9,598 12,335 1792 2016 11.5%1.9%0.86 5.99 6,293 7,277 12142017 16.3%3.1%0.72 7.26 10,541 14,714 2026 2017 11.4%2.3%0.86 5.64 6,810 7,906 14032018 16.7%3.2%0.70 7.44 11,993 17,065 2294 2018 11.2%2.3%0.84 5.45 7,301 8,698 15972019 16.1%2.9%0.73 7.48 14,198 19,482 2606 2019 10.6%2.8%0.83 5.26 8,305 9,995 18992020 15.6%2.8%0.76 7.32 16,150 21,134 2888 2020 9.6%2.6%0.78 5.01 9,103 11,620 23212021 16.0%2.7%0.83 7.11 18,913 22,903 3222 2021 9.4%2.6%0.79 4.96 10,200 12,979 26152022 9.5%2.7%0.76 5.14 10,963 14,385 2797归母净利率 总资产周转率 权益乘数2011 9.6%1.5%1.07 6.18 4,607 4,290 694 归母净利率 总资产周转率 权益乘数2012 9.8%1.5%0.95 6.78 4,840 5,097 752 2014 9.1%1.2%0.91 8.12 1,838 2,014 2482013 11.4%1.7%0.95 7.15 5,604 5,894 825 2015 11.6%2.0%0.86 6.63 2,057 2,404 3632014 11.2%1.7%0.93 7.07 6,126 6,556 927 2016 9.9%1.9%0.80 6.41 2,222 2,766 4322015 10.7%2.0%0.89 6.09 6,241 6,983 1147 2017 11.1%2.2%0.74 6.82 2,344 3,183 4672016 9.2%1.9%0.88 5.42 6,434 7,341 1355 2018 9.4%2.1%0.61 7.36 2,240 3,666 4982017 10.9%2.3%0.87 5.41 6,934 7,993 1479 2019 9.4%2.1%0.61 7.46 2,473 4,055 5442018 9.9%2.3%0.83 5.15 7,404 8,934 1736 2020 7.4%1.7%0.60 7.09 2,703 4,488 6332019 11.5%2.8%0.85 4.84 8,509 9,994 2066 2021 8.0%2.0%0.64 6.18 3,223 5,024 8132020 10.6%2.6%0.86 4.73 9,747 11,282 2384 2022 8.0%2.1%0.61 6.09 3,664 5,966 9812021 10.4%2.6%0.84 4.83 10,733 12,809 26532022 10.9%2.7%0.78 5.16 11,544 14,874 2882归母净利率 总资产周转率 权益乘数2011 9.1%1.8%0.74 6.66 2,302 3,101 466归母净利率 总资产周转率 权益乘数 2012-15.6%-3.1%0.67 7.37 2,211 3,291 4472011 17.2%3.9%0.88 4.96 2,954 3,353 676 2013 7.0%1.5%0.62 7.58 2,027 3,246 4282012 15.0%4.0%0.75 4.99 2,962 3,968 795 2014 8.6%1.8%0.67 7.06 2,158 3,244 4592013 13.3%3.7%0.70 5.20 3,325 4,760 916 2015 8.9%2.2%0.65 6.21 2,173 3,349 5392014 13.1%3.8%0.64 5.40 3,667 5,742 1063 2016 8.2%2.4%0.61 5.50 2,196 3,606 6562015 11.9%3.9%0.59 5.15 4,044 6,807 1322 2017 7.9%2.5%0.62 5.18 2,440 3,960 7652016 10.9%3.9%0.56 4.99 4,317 7,663 1535 2018 7.7%2.2%0.68 5.13 2,895 4,267 8322017 12.1%4.3%0.58 4.84 4,828 8,259 1705 2019 7.3%1.9%0.75 4.93 3,386 4,487 9092018 10.4%4.0%0.54 4.78 4,909 9,053 1892 2020 8.0%2.0%0.83 4.93 4,001 4,825 9792019 9.4%3.6%0.53 4.87 5,548 10,405 2137 2021 8.2%1.7%0.95 5.11 5,006 5,249 10272020 6.8%2.6%0.52 5.10 6,276 12,123 2376 2022 9.0%1.7%1.05 4.94 5,927 5,644 11432021 7.1%2.6%0.51 5.33 6,856 13,476 25272022 7.0%2.7%0.50 5.35 7,203 14,510 2711归母净利率 总资产周转率 权益乘数归母净利率 总资产周转率 权益乘数 2011 16.8%5.5%1.09 2.83 435 400 1412011 19.0%3.2%0.80 7.48 1,135 1,423 190 2012 18.6%5.7%1.03 3.15 541 524 1662012 14.1%3.2%0.74 5.92 1,270 1,724 291 2013 17.2%5.4%0.95 3.34 617 653 1952013 14.1%3.1%0.70 6.37 1,448 2,065 324 2014 14.2%4.6%0.91 3.42 693 764 2242014 12.9%2.9%0.64 7.01 1,671 2,591 370 2015 11.4%4.5%0.78 3.28 635 816 2492015 11.0%2.5%0.61 7.24 2,109 3,459 478 2016 6.6%3.3%0.64 3.09 531 828 2682016 11.6%2.8%0.53 7.73 2,390 4,527 586 2017 5.6%2.7%0.68 3.07 586 857 2792017 10.5%2.8%0.50 7.66 2,668 5,382 702 2018 6.3%2.4%0.88 3.02 814 922 3062018 9.3%2.6%0.46 7.82 2,953 6,446 825 2019 9.0%2.9%0.98 3.13 1,041 1,064 3402019 7.5%2.1%0.46 7.88 3,485 7,632 968 2020 10.1%3.3%0.87 3.46 1,100 1,259 3642020 7.1%2.0%0.47 7.54 4,020 8,498 1128 2021 10.8%3.4%0.88 3.66 1,379 1,570 4292021 7.1%1.9%0.49 7.61 4,490 9,254 1215 2022 10.7%3.4%0.85 3.68 1,584 1,862 505杜邦分析拆解营收 平均总资产 平均股东权益营收 平均总资产 平均股东权益中国化学时间平均总资产平均总资产 平均股东权益平均总资产 平均股东权益营收平均总资产中国建筑中国中铁时间 ROE杜邦分析拆解时间 ROE杜邦分析拆解中国交建时间 ROE杜邦分析拆解营收中国电建时间 ROE杜邦分析拆解营收平均股东权益中国铁建平均股东权益时间 ROE杜邦分析拆解营收时间 ROEROE中国能建中国中冶时间 ROE杜邦分析拆解平均总资产 平均股东权益杜邦分析拆解营收 平均总资产 平均股东权益营收 2023 04 09 P.10 3.3.2022H1 1912 2021 29 16%/4.6%/21.6%30GW 28 48.5GW 65%2021 467 21%13.1%13 14 20GW 30 60 2022 830 19%27%2025 20GW 2022 4 2022-2025 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002502012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01020304050607080901002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 04 09 P.11 CAGR 59%1 2022 16 300MW 2*300MW 2 2022 11 20 790 3 2021 11 50+1 2 3 4 15 2025 15%2023 04 09 P.12 16 20 30/7 31 8 5 2022 2 27 1.17 m PBAT 10 PBAT 2022 6 PBAT6330 60 2022 2023 3 2022 2023 90%60%CCUS 2020 2022 3 2022 17 2021 52%31594 32790 39.2 15 7.8 2955 3033 41%35391 31962 5.4 2 0.82 7277 6546 100%18806 15860 13.4 1.8 1.8 58 18.8 10.4 2023 04 09 P.13 18 1 2022 3018.92 81.18%2 5 19 2022 0.09%83%64.18 1.5-83%/0.1 SICOMINES 3.21%41.72%722.07 25.26 0.25%41.72%57.21 0.32 2.24%72%47 3.17 0.07%72%1.35 0.11 MKM 2.08%80.20%3.1 1.76 0.21%80.20%0.32 0.09 1.13%100%17.94 0.95 2.67%100%44.03 2.36 52.564g/t 100%0.09 0.005 0.63%100%4.11 2.37%100%15.47 118.17g/t 100%0.08 3g/t 100%0.0003 REITs 2023 04 09 P.14 REITs REITs 50%2010 13%2021 27%50%2021 32%8+N 8+N 8+N 8 N&20 2023 04 09 P.15 ROE PB 0.58 21/BIPV/30GW/REITs/REITs PB 0.58 ROE/REITs/REITs 4.4.1.2018 PE/PB 11.8/1.22 6.72/0.69 43%/44%PE/PB 5 59%10 43%/31%49%/29%/36%/35%22 PE ttm PE ttm PB lf PB lf 590 10.9 7.4 48%1.12 0.77 45%1254 11.5 5.5 110%1.10 0.49 123%885 13.2-1.11-1507 9.5 4.4 114%0.75 0.40 85%1773 6.1 4.1 48%0.75 0.50 49%2566 4.5 3.5 29%0.71 0.55 29%1233 5.0 3.6 37%0.58 0.42 36%772 8.1 6.6 23%0.90 0.67 35%Wind*2023/4/8 2021 9 A 2023 04 09 P.16 23 PE-TTM 24 PB-MRQ Wind Wind 25 PE 300 26 PB 300 Wind Wind 1 2018 2019-2021 3.3%/3.4%/0.2%2022 12.2%2 a 2018 2018 2.80%2021 2.46%b 5 c ROE 05101520253012-0212-0813-0213-0814-0214-0815-0215-0816-0216-0817-0217-0818-0218-0819-0219-0820-0220-0821-0221-0822-0222-0823-02 PE-TTM 1/4 00.511.522.533.512-0212-0813-0213-0814-0214-0815-0215-0816-0216-0817-0217-0818-0218-0819-0219-0820-0220-0821-0221-0822-0222-0823-02 PB-MRQ 1/4 00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.812-0212-0813-0213-0814-0214-0815-0215-0816-0216-0817-0217-0818-0218-0819-0219-0820-0220-0821-0221-0822-0222-0823-02 PE/300 1/4 00.20.40.60.811.21.41.612-0212-0813-0213-0814-0214-0815-0215-0816-0216-0817-0217-0818-0218-0819-0219-0820-0220-0821-0221-0822-0222-0823-02 PB/300 1/4 2023 04 09 P.17 27 28 Wind Wind 29 ROE Wind 4.2.2018 17.2%2022Q3 23.7%1 2021 2 EPC 3 PPP EPC+F 2021 6 14.5%2021 5.1%1500 13%2012-2021 11%/14%25%27%29%31%33%35%37%39%41%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 58%67%116%229%310%85%70%60%144%35%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 归母净利率 权益乘数 总资产周转率2013 13.88%2.37%6.43 0.91 27238 32914 49962014 13.29%2.40%6.49 0.85 30072 37639 58742015 12.61%2.61%6.07 0.79 32071 43069 74162016 11.65%2.69%5.91 0.73 33981 49616 82582017 12.00%2.85%5.92 0.71 37150 54891 93942018 11.39%2.80%5.92 0.69 40511 63212 105642019 11.15%2.72%5.85 0.70 46948 71015 123752020 10.17%2.50%5.75 0.71 53103 79443 137712021 10.33%2.46%5.74 0.73 60801 87080 15232时间 ROE-平均杜邦拆解营收 平均总资产 平均股东权益 2023 04 09 P.18 30 Wind 31 32 Wind Wind 2018 PPP PPP 2019 PPP 2018 30%2021 15%2018 17.3%17.0%17.0%17.7%17.6%17.4%17.2%18.9%20.1%20.7%23.7%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%22%23%24%25%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-38/8/0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%0100002000030000400005000060000700002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%020040060080010001200140016002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 04 09 P.19 33 34 Wind Wind ROE ROE 1 ROE ROE ROE ROE ROE 2 2015-2021 229%35%2023 PPP ROE 4.3.+2022 2022 1 2020-2022 CAGR 9%/12%2021 26 18%2 4 7 3 8 22 2023 1 0.910.850.790.730.710.690.700.710.730.40.60.812013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%050001000015000200002500030000350002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 04 09 P.20 35 2020-2022 36 2017-2021 Wind Wind 37 5.PPP ROE PE8.9X PB1.12X 2023 PE8.6X PB0.75X PE5.3X PB0.75X PE4.4X PB0.58X PE4.2X-15-10-50510152025303505000010000015000020000025000030000035000040000045000020Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q4:%17 19 21 19 26-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0510152025302017 2018 2019 2020 2021/2023 04 09 P.21 PB0.71X PE7.1X PB0.90X PE9.6X PB1.10X PE11.5X PB1.11X 38 EPS PE PB 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 6.12 1.23 1.33 1.46 1.61 5.0 4.6 4.2 3.8 0.71 7.70 1.12 1.26 1.45 1.63 6.9 6.1 5.3 4.7 0.75 9.80 1.82 1.96 2.21 2.45 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.0 0.58 11.25 1.11 1.18 1.31 1.47 10.1 9.5 8.6 7.7 0.75 9.66 0.76 0.89 1.09 1.30 12.7 10.9 8.9 7.4 1.12 2.47 0.16 0.18 0.22 0.24 15.8 14.0 11.5 10.1 1.11 4.03 0.40 0.50 0.57 0.65 10.0 8.1 7.1 6.2 0.90 7.28 0.50 0.68 0.76 0.85 14.5 10.8 9.6 8.5 1.10 Wind 2023 4 7 EPS Wind 6.1 2 3 2023 04 09 P.22“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告