20230409_东方证券_交通运输行业证券研究报告：会展旺季将至旅游出行蓄势弱复苏下航空出行为何能超预期？_22页.pdf

|19 90%19 1 2 4 6 2019 7 18 4 157%3/1 a b/2 22 22-25 3.7%10%2-3 3 1 2/2023 04 09 S0860522030001 2023-04-02 2023-03-26 2023-03-13 2023-03-06 2.4.6.9“”.10.14.16.18.19 WUAZzQmRtQpOqOoNtOsNmN7N8Q8OsQnNtRtQlOrRtPjMpOnMaQmMvNxNoNnRNZnQzQ 3 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.4 5.4 6 VS 2019.5 7 2023 VS 2019.5 8 VS 2019.6 9 4.7 10 2023 3.8 11 2023 3/VS2019.8 12.8 13.8 14 GDP%.9 15.10 16.10 17%.10 18.10 19.11 20.11 21%22 VS 17-19.11 22 22%23 2 VS 19 2.12 23 GDP%.12 24“”200+.14 25.15 26 737MAX.15 27 737MAX.15 28 30.16 29.17 30 2019.17 31 10.17 4 4 7 13396 2022 436.7%2019 7.3%12507 425.1%19 5.6%632 829.4%19 69.7%257 458.7%19 50.7%1 2 3 4 1-3 3 4501 19 84.1%5 0500010000150002000001 01 01 19 02 06 02 24 03 14 04 01 04 19 05 07 05 25 06 12 06 30 07 18 08 05 08 23 09 10 09 28 10 16 11 03 11 21 12 09 12 27 2023 2022 20190200040006000800010000120001400001 01 01 19 02 06 02 24 03 14 04 01 04 19 05 07 05 25 06 12 06 30 07 18 08 05 08 23 09 10 09 28 10 16 11 03 11 21 12 09 12 27 2023 2022 201905001000150020002500300001 01 01 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2,180 13,141 12,094 13,465-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2019 202201020304050GDP 10 7 7 10%40%40%15 16 1 2 1990 20-21 17%18 66%64%64%67%62%25%26%26%25%28%6%7%7%6%7%3%3%3%3%3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 20211-2 3-6 7-12 12 31%30%30%34%29%30%31%31%32%32%16%17%17%16%17%22%23%22%18%22%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 20211-2 3-6 7-12 12 11 Wind Wind 19 20 Wind Wind 17-19 22 21%22 VS 17-19 5859606162636402468101214162015-012015-062015-112016-042016-092017-022017-072017-122018-052018-102019-032019-082020-012020-062020-112021-042021-092022-022022-07:66.0%67.0%68.0%69.0%70.0%71.0%72.0%1.802.302.803.303.8033.5033.7033.9034.1034.3034.5034.7034.9035.102006-032007-012007-112008-092009-072010-052011-032012-012012-112013-092014-072015-052016-032017-012017-112018-092019-072020-052021-032022-012022-11:4042444648502018-062018-092019-022019-052019-082019-112020-042020-072020-102021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-09 12 A4A/22 22%23 2 VS 19 2 A4A 23 GDP%13 Wind 09 GDP 07 14.2%08 9.7%09 9.4%08 09 11.1%16.4%2009 3 28 2009 2009 3 10 15 6 3 70%2015 10 10-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.0GDP 14 09 15 09 15 2022 OTA 2022 5 16 24 200+22 22-25 3.7%10%B737 MAX 2.2%C919 ARJ21 1.4%15 22-25 3.6%4.5%3.0%25 22 3.7%13-18 19 737MAX 9.1%25 737MAX 22-25 737 2.2%26 737MAX ARJ21 C919 1.4%27 737MAX 160 150 A320 10 A350-900 Guillaume Faury 2019 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 694 741 757 28 41 34 20 8 6 765 798 826 1.1%4.3%3.5%848 862 879 80 92 77 24 39 25 935 988 1040 6.4%5.7%5.3%723 752 775 36 50 35 14 23 37 797 824 822 2.8%3.4%-0.2%2265 2355 2411 144 183 146 58 70 68 2497 2610 2688 3.6%4.5%3.0%2019 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 694 741 757 28 41 34 20 8 6 765 798 826 1.1%4.3%3.5%848 862 879 43 57 46 24 39 25 898 916 937 2.2%2.0%2.3%723 752 775 34 44 35 14 23 37 795 816 814 2.6%2.6%-0.2%2265 2355 2411 105 142 115 58 70 68 2458 2530 2577 1.9%2.9%1.9%2019 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 694 734 742 17 32 34 20 8 6 739 763 791-0.4%3.2%3.7%848 844 859 34 46 46 24 39 25 869 876 897 1.2%0.8%2.4%723 745 758 21 35 35 14 23 37 765 777 775 0.9%1.6%-0.3%2265 2323 2359 72 113 115 58 70 68 2373 2416 2463 0.6%1.8%1.9%16 1 2 3 2-3 2017 5-6 70%28 30 1 1240 2150 73%2 1690 2950 75%3 2080 3650 75%4 1350 2350 74%5 1910 3360 76%6 1400 2230 59%7 1760 3090 76%8 2200 3210 46%9 1640 2870 75%10 1430 2270 59%11 1550 2470 59%12 1180 1870 58%13 1850 2950 59%14 1480 2580 74%15 2530 4440 75%16 1480 2140 45%17 1390 2430 75%18 1260 2200 75%19 1250 1990 59%20 1050 1820 73%21 2550 3380 33%22 1340 2340 75%23 1260 2200 75%24 1310 2090 60%25 1130 1790 58%26 2390 4190 75%27 1540 2690 75%28 1180 1870 58%29 2340 3410 46%30 1760 3090 76%17 19-21 2.2%1.9%1.9%29 Wind 2019 1%37.3 2019 21.4%22.8%30 2019 Wind 2010-31 10 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000 18 22 2022 2021 2022/1(601021)(603885)(601111)(600115)(600029)(002928)0.000.200.400.600.801.00+19 2 1 2 3(600004)(600009)1 2 3 4 5 6 20 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告