20230406_海通证券_证券行业2022年年报回顾与展望：业务全方位承压期待2023否极泰来_26页.pdf

Table_MainInfo/2023 04 06 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-17.07%-12.66%-8.25%-3.84%0.57%4.97%2022/4 2022/7 2022/10 2023/1 Table_ReportInfo 2023.03.06 2022 2023.03.07 2023.02.11 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(010)50949926 Email:S0850515040002:Tel:(021)23219634 Email:S0850516060001:Tel:(021)23154171 Email:2023 2022 Table_Summary 2022 10030 11%27-21%-28%2023+16%2022 1 2022 10030 11%2 2022 1.54 16%270%3 IPO 2022 35.7 18%2022 428 IPO 5869+8%2022 13.7 2021 10.4 32%4 2022 2022 7229 20%5 2022 10.45 6.18%6 2022 A 18.66%2022 0.18%2022-28%2022 27 4208 21%1201 28%27+6%+2%+1%+18%+5%27 2022 ROE 5.32%2021 3.97 ROE 9.99%9.39%8.88%2021 3.76 3.74 Top10 2021 4.68 4.55 1 2022 27 881 18%108 21%12%1 2 5%2022 27 491 5%10+41%+22%+12%-78%-58%-45%3 2022 27 398 11%22 6 11%4 2022 2022 27 700 48%23 3.6 14%3.3 15%90%3442 5%10%+16%2023+16%7%21%6%15%25%2023 3 31 1.4x 2023E P/B II PB 1.3 2 1.2022.5 1.1 36%.5 1.2 11%.5 1.3 16%20%.5 1.4 IPO 6%.6 1.5.7 2.2022 28%ROE.8 2.1 21%.9 2.2.11 2.3.14 2.4.15 3.2023+16%.16 3.1.16 3.2.17 3.3 2023+16%.18 0YCXwPmRmPoPsMsRqNqPoPaQ9RbRmOqQpNtQjMpPtPeRqQtMbRpPyQwMnOrNNZnQxP 3 1.5 2.5 3 2020-2022.5 4.5 5 2020.6 6%.6 7 2013-2022 IPO.6 8 2015-2022 IPO.6 9 2015-2022.7 10 2016-2022.7 11 IPO 2022 12 31.14 12 2013-2022 IPO.18 13 2012-2022Q3.18 14 2022 top15.18 15 II PB 2023/3/31.20 4 1.7 2 2022.8 3 2022.9 4 2021.10 5 2022.11 6 2022.12 7 2022().13 8 2022 2021.14 9 2022.15 10 2022().16 11 2022.17 12.19 13 2023 3 31.21 5 1.2022 1.1 36%140 2022 36%2022 140 3950-20%1423-36%2022 11.06 2.79 2.09 4.4%8.5%4.7%733.25 31.8%2022 2.75 9.76 5.92 428 5869 8.15%7845 1 0246810122016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01000200030004000500060002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1.2 11%2022 11%2022 10030 11%2015 4 2022 2022 123 2021 164 25%3 2020-2022 02000400060008000100001200014000160001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2020 2021 2022 Wind 4 0501001502002503000500010000150002000025000 2019 2 22 2019 2 1.3 16%20%6 16%2022 1.54 16%1.44 15.6%20%959 2022 270%2021 280%10 5 2020 0.002,000.004,000.006,000.008,000.0010,000.0012,000.0014,000.0016,000.0018,000.0020,000.002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11 Wind 6%200.00220.00240.00260.00280.00300.00320.00 Wind 1.4 IPO 6%IPO 2022 IPO 35.7 2021 43.7 IPO 18%2022 428 IPO 5869+8%2022 13.7 2021 10.4 32%2022 IPO 4.9%2021 5.4%2022 IPO 80%2017 10 IPO 19 IPO IPO 2022 2021 Wind 2022 594 526 88.6%2021 88.2%7 2013-2022 IPO 0100200300400500600010002000300040005000600070002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Wind 8 2015-2022 IPO 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Wind 2022 Wind 2022 7229 20%615.26 25%7 9 2015-2022 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022增发 配股 优先股 可转债 可交换债 Wind 2022 10.45 6.18%ABS-16%-10%-5%-35%10 2016-2022-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0200004000060000800001000001200002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()(%,)Wind 1.5 2022 300 21.63%2021 5.20%2022 29.37%2021 12.02%2022 15.13%2021 4.80%A 18.66%2021 9.17%2022 0.18%2021 2.28%1 300 A 2020 27.21%64.96%13.87%-0.16%25.62%2021-5.20%12.02%4.80%2.28%9.17%2022-21.63%-29.37%-15.13%0.18%-18.66%Wind 8 2.2022 28%ROE 27 21%28%2023 4 1 27 2022 2022 27 4208 21%1201 28%27+6%+2%+1%+18%+5%ROE 27 2022 ROE 5.32%2021 3.97 ROE 9.99%9.39%8.88%2022 ROE 2021 3.76 3.74 Top10 2021 4.68 4.55 2 2022 2022 ROE 2021 ROE 2022 2021 65109-15%21317-8%8.67%12.07%4.06 4.91 35471-17%11507-23%7.88%11.05%4.82 4.69 33642-7%7761-26%8.21%12.29%4.83 4.36 32032-15%11053-17%7.49%9.84%4.20 4.44 27565-8%7507-27%9.99%15.80%4.30 4.51 26087-13%7598-30%8.88%14.64%5.61 6.59 25948-40%6545-49%3.99%8.09%3.88 3.81 25132-27%7929-27%7.23%10.67%3.99 3.84 20610-40%2789-70%2.93%10.26%5.40 5.21 19219-35%8072-31%7.54%11.52%4.39 4.42 18729-23%3011-44%4.16%9.02%3.17 3.69 17136 1%2942-39%6.04%10.61%3.66 3.57 16814 2%1654-25%6.58%9.90%4.45 4.41 10780-35%3189-8%5.27%6.43%2.96 2.93 9325-29%590-82%1.61%9.25%3.57 4.15 7777-10%2148 18%5.09%4.50%3.51 3.39 5341-13%1733-9%5.32%6.03%3.10 2.81 4629-14%8509-1%14.40%22.11%2.23 2.75 3438-10%1227 5%9.39%9.89%3.37 3.76 3429-36%517-69%1.96%7.37%3.28 2.96 3159-9%1181-17%5.98%8.39%2.83 2.90 2623-12%767-14%4.62%7.27%3.79 3.34 2443 6%352-29%4.81%7.02%3.13 3.04 1881-57%107-79%0.78%3.78%2.79 3.01 1398 0%465-4%7.39%7.93%1.91 1.90 836-88%39-98%0.17%9.03%1.85 1.71 247-75%-392-12.70%-3.94%5.82 4.35 420799-21%120118-28%5.32%9.29%3.74 3.76 Wind,2022/30%/16%/13%/16%/24%2021 28%/13%/11%/13%/35%2022 9 3 2022 19%16%21%11%33%27%18%7%20%29%33%4%2%29%32%28%18%16%11%26%27%31%5%13%24%22%30%6%-4%46%27%26%14%39%-7%28%3%43%20%6%35%15%10%1%40%41%9%6%9%35%21%17%27%16%19%100%0%0%0%0%41%17%10%17%15%32%15%17%24%12%50%15%8%32%-5%45%8%4%27%17%23%21%3%56%-3%57%0%0%29%13%39%9%12%13%27%25%40%7%52%-24%32%6%19%18%25%22%19%8%5%46%35%18%3%9%36%40%13%3%30%14%38%18%10%19%15%50%4%12%11%23%2022 30%16%13%16%24%2021 28%13%11%13%35%Wind,2.1 21%18%21%2022 27 881 18%2022 50%28%2022 108 21%12%1 24%18%18%10 4 2022 10102-22%1683 17%6593-21%5%0.028%780 12%6447-11%9%0.014%969 15%6000-20%6%0.021%560 9%5845-21%5%0.025%1062 18%5826-23%633 11%5196-7%779 15%5103-13%1212 24%4789 4%5%0.024%183 4%4546-22%276 6%4238-17%344 8%4236-22%4%0.021%347 8%3324-16%3%0.024%303 9%2992-25%235 8%2819-25%496 18%2058-23%318 15%1869-10%303 16%841-18%66 8%835-11%52 6%823 4%16 2%802-18%1%0.026%28 3%711-24%1%0.024%53 7%550-10%1%0.021%42 8%538-10%16 3%523-28%23 4%334-30%3 1%174-25%2 1%88115-18%10783 12%2022,Wind,2022+28%35%11 5 2022 2022Q4+2021Q4 2022Q4 2021Q4 1417 35%1733 50%1226 44%1367 47%821 17%948 21%723 28%807 29%683 37%736 39%571 19%595 20%499 24%638 48%477 19%511 26%397-6%409-5%382-4%407 1%365 34%428 45%356 69%445 68%340 8%421 30%288 24%310 24%262 29%283 30%251 41%301 51%248 31%274 37%223 0%233-2%211 306%213 287%178 36%180 36%155 12%160 14%110 26%130 24%101 42%103 41%97 21%127 28%73 143%75 142%67 116%76 111%67 52%107 118%62-3%64-2%59 31%86 48%54 15%70 11%51 21%85 73%49 4%54 10%40 43%57 63%37-3%51 0%36 29%39 39%36 29%46 39%28%35%2.2 5%2022 27 491 5%10+41%+22%+12%-78%-58%-45%2022 9%10%12 6 2022 8654 6%871 6%10%7006 0%946-19%13%5927 5%407-3%7%4311 6%228-17%5%4179-15%258-36%6%4024-7%444-12%11%1880 5%246 49%13%1733 2%121 3%7%1695 12%152-15%9%1393-45%133-13%10%1282-28%46-30%4%1152 6%138-26%12%1018-21%106-20%10%779-28%92 63%12%777-18%99 77%13%683 10%51-25%7%610 41%41 49%7%533 22%83 18%16%477-6%62-26%13%268-58%35-17%13%186-61%73-26%39%171-19%6-63%3%158-21%33-20%21%83-11%17 29%20%70-78%9-74%13%59-20%53 38%91%21 17%1-62%4%49129-5%4751-9%10%Wind 2022 2022 63837 60%2021 50%10 IPO 2022 IPO TOP5 58%3 13 7 2022()合计 首发 增发（主承销）增发（财务顾问）配股 可转债 债券承销 机构名称 金额 金额 市场份额 金额 市场份额 金额 市场份额 金额 市场份额 金额 市场份额 金额 市场份额 18941 1260 24%1346 22%496 28%83 13%366 17%15758 15%13824 557 11%706 12%113 6%3 7 18%12448 12%11109 529 10%1147 19%110 17%107 5%9188 9%11020 309 6%544 9%548 31%12 2%138 6%9607 9%8942 314 6%271 4%149 7%8124 8%3712 102 2%53 1%32 0%12 1%3525 3%3759 352 7%139 2%28 1%3267 3%3557 75 1%57 1%19 1%44 7%32 1%3361 3%3184 101 2%93 2%24 0%33 5%183 8%2933 3%2635 36 1%32 5%15 0%2540 2%3099 123 2%145 2%6 0%69 11%38 2%2756 3%2405 140 3%62 1%81 0%2200 2%1722 30 1%70 0%10 0%1542 1%2251 6 0%18 1%2245 2%1593 47 1%103 2%32 5%17 1%1412 1%1324 57 1%44 1%1224 1%1097 2 0%41 1%32 5%1022 1%1045 93 2%7 1%72 3%885 1%693 4 0%10 0%682 1%595 20 0%575 1%902 0 0%45 2%870 1%716 9 0%676 1%639 639 1%580 118 2%40 0%450 0%473 18 0%14 0%6 0%441 0%405 39 1%14 1%354 0%423 24 0%399 0%389 4 0%31 1%7 0%353 0%412 81 2%23 0%4 0%53 2%305 0%407 57 1%31 1%72 0%246 0%273 18 0%4 0%246 0%194 5 0%72 1%12 1%116 0%190 39 1%151 0%182 16 0%11 0%14 1%155 0%272 5 0%3 0%264 0%153 1 0%146 0%69 4 0%0 0%63 0%109 109 0%88 0 0%88 0%127 117 0%141 12 0%129 0%113 113 0%92 24 0%43 0%102 1 0%86 0%106442 4638 89%5111 84%1282 67%555 71%1872 79%94153 88%TOP5 63837 3011 58%4014 66%1252 67%375 53%1235 56%55126 51%2021 top5 55%58%78%36%69 48%Wind 14 11 IPO 2022 12 31 020406080100120140160180 Wind 8 2022 2021 2022 2021 IPO 通过率 并购重组通过率 配股通过率 IPO 通过率 并购重组通过率 配股通过率 中信证券 91%91%100%97%100%100%中信建投 93%100%0%90%71%华泰证券 96%100%100%5%70%100%广发证券 100%中金公司 88%100%100%93%100%100%招商证券 100%100%100%海通证券 97%93%国泰君安 82%100%73%100%光大证券 73%100%国信证券 85%75%Wind 2.3 2022 27 398 11%2022 2022 22 6 11%15 9 2022 10940-7%14178-13%8939-10%2712-45%3769 0%4796-8%2645-27%2848-22%2253-38%888-20%1648-8%4334 13%1506-6%3654-2%3504 96%1365-11%7025-38%1252-9%2880 1899 66%982-2%4775 12%829-20%3171-34%552-1%2188 18%1347 62%484 12%441-15%1150-7%435 10%917-14%390-40%1360 66%1075 79%260 63%235-9%768-6%205 58%194 38%1020 0%190 59%94-11%242-37%47 26%38 2%45-61%765 30%39 33%196-17%17-69%593-33%4-16%39762-11%60498-11%Wind 2022 2.4 2022 2022 27 700 48%2022 2022 23 3.6 14%3.3 15%90%3442 5%10%16 10 2022()2022 年 2021 年 权益类 权益类占比 债券类 债券类占比 合计 权益类 权益类占比 债券类 债券类占比 合计 48896 12%366608 88%415503 44504 11%343445 89%387949 26060 14%153919 86%179978 27977 16%147792 84%175769 32989 9%317891 91%350880 39682 12%288680 88%328362 42515 13%294546 87%337062 40992 15%239773 85%280765 29014 10%274694 90%303708 13103 6%214395 94%227498 19802 7%254461 93%274263 16111 7%231727 93%247838 39825 13%271157 87%310982 37402 14%225300 86%262702 6344 3%213086 97%219429 8681 5%173165 95%181846 6078 4%147945 96%154023 8881 6%128485 94%137366 38223 13%248429 87%286652 32799 15%192241 85%225040 7977 17%38062 83%46038 5229 16%27954 84%33183 9366 12%66246 88%75613 5062 8%60242 92%65304 4431 5%86113 95%90544 3618 5%65653 95%69270 2567 6%39001 94%41568 2340 6%36537 94%38878 1778 5%31389 95%33167 1335 5%28085 95%29420 777 3%27749 97%28526 324 1%26938 99%27262 329 1%22307 99%22636 616 3%23029 97%23645 1103 18%4874 82%5977 636 15%3726 85%4363 908 4%23757 96%24664 5031 21%18674 79%23705 1188 2%56272 98%57461 3024 6%45387 94%48411 4048 7%53617 93%57665 6232 9%62506 91%68738 4418 8%54308 92%58726 4181 9%42614 91%46794 15565 8%181689 92%197254 20479 11%172022 89%192501 344199 10%3228120 90%3572319 328237 10%2798370 90%3126607 Wind 3.2023+16%3.1 17 11 2022 203.96 17.79 130.53 129.64 241.25 21.12 293.75 162.85 186.44 17.62 277.32 130.09 240.12 14.10 166.57 129.33 262.43 12.42 354.93 129.89 257.30 10.89 212.12 136.74 186.58 13.04 213.79 147.26 182.42 11.24 239.71 154.27 222.66 14.91 235.00 141.47 264.95 13.39 210.95 151.73 253.08 14.38 218.50 139.09 342.13 22.55 216.78 157.99 252.02 20.64 312.72 154.31 220.76 14.85 309.31 162.95 288.31 18.94 139.43 139.10 470.10 45.43 1,678.14 269.95 230.11 21.61 457.44 169.27 317.37 24.14 239.35 183.18 220.96 18.79 192.85 158.54 195.59 23.32 504.18 178.18 192.35 20.33 160.06 143.66 279.17 30.75 211.14 169.94 Wind 100%8%3.2 2023 2 17 5 6 10%IPO IPO 19 IPO 19-22 A IPO 203 434 524 428 2532 4793 5426 5869 IPO 40%70%18 12 2013-2022 IPO 0100200300400500600010002000300040005000600070002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Wind 13 2012-2022Q3-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0100200300400500600700800 2019 483 30%2020 672 39%A+2022 14 2022 top15 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%wind 3.3 2023+16%+16%2023+16%7%21%6%15%25%19 12(2021 2022E 2023E 悲观 2023E 中性 2023E 乐观 11207 10030 10000 11000 12000 26%-11%0%10%20%0.025%0.024%0.022%0.023%0.024%-8%-3%-8%-4%0%207 166 182 199 215 54%-20%10%20%30%1545 1331 1247 1423 1609 19%-14%-6%7%21%18178 16882 17500 20000 22500 IPO 5427 5869 7500 8000 8500 12751 11013 10000 12000 14000 351 315 508 424 581 IPO 326 293 488 400 553 26 22 20 24 28 111387 104498 94000 105000 116000 4399 3681 4000 5000 6000 34525 30905 30000 35000 40000 72462 69911 60000 65000 70000 233 270 262 306 350 116 116 104 116 150 700 701 874 846 1081 4%0%25%21%54%966 880 853 928 957 18%-9%-3%6%9%318 286 318 366 397 20%-10%0%15%25%1475 738 664 922 1033 5%-50%-10%25%40%-36 15 100 100 100 4968 3950 4055 4584 5177 2219 1423 1460 1650 1864 41%-36%3%16%31%2023 3 31 1.4x 2023E P/B II PB 1.3 20 Table_PicPe 15 II PB 2023/3/31 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.002004-12-312005-04-222005-08-092005-11-242006-03-172006-07-042006-10-192007-02-012007-05-282007-09-052007-12-212008-04-112008-07-252008-11-122009-03-032009-06-172009-09-252010-01-142010-05-052010-08-182010-12-082011-03-282011-07-122011-10-282012-02-162012-06-042012-09-132012-12-312013-04-242013-08-122013-11-292014-03-192014-07-032014-10-212015-02-022015-05-222015-09-022015-12-222016-04-112016-07-252016-11-112017-03-012017-06-162017-09-262018-01-122018-05-072018-08-162018-12-042019-03-252019-07-102019-10-282020-02-142020-06-012020-09-112020-12-302021-04-202021-08-042021-11-232022-03-112022-06-292022-10-172023-02-02(+1)(-1)wind 21 13 2023 3 31 P/E P/B 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E 20.48 3035 13.1 14.2 11.3 1.5 1.3 1.1 20.03 2647 30.9 31.1 25.3 6.3 4.1 3.7 8.81 1151 9.0 17.6 9.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 14.36 1279 8.5 11.1 9.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 12.77 1159 8.7 10.5 8.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 10.05 1019 9.8 13.1 11.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 4.17 1044 11.1 37.4 12.7 1.1 1.1 15.77 1202 11.1 15.2 12.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 38.88 1877 17.4 21.3 17.6 2.5 2.1 1.9 25.63 1988 19.4 26.5 16.8 3.1 2.9 13.79 1199 10.3 14.9 11.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 9.79 832 15.5 27.6 18.0 1.4 1.1 1.1 9.37 901 8.9 13.6 10.7 1.2 6.12 529 11.1 17.6 12.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 15.24 703 20.2 22.0 17.8 1.3 1.3 1.1 10.07 391 17.8 23.6 16.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 6.70 467 14.6 79.1 1.3 1.3 6.91 346 14.5 19.3 15.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 5.57 308 12.8 15.8 11.5 1.0 6.97 574 31.5 26.7 22.9 1.4 1.3 1.2 8.29 334 18.9 1.7 6.78 159 9.8 0.9 8.96 334 14.4 24.6 17.3 1.4 1.1 1.0 6.37 285 20.2 34.5 19.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 8.63 407 25.8 1,056.6 27.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 7.51 349 13.6 19.7 14.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 6.76 295 15.5 17.0 14.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 8.40 272 16.4 52.5 19.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.40 185 24.2 1.0 8.23 216 13.2 1.0 3.72 173 33.7 162.1 1.3 1.3 2.91 252 43.0 1.0 5.81 209 26.0 39.9 37.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 6.84 155 16.0 1.0 4.82 226 15.9 19.2 13.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 10.74 298 31.0 27.3 23.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 5.97 251 33.7 52.7 35.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 3.89 258 24.9 46.3 27.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 10.59 300 33.7 39.1 27.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 8.77 323 33.1 44.0 35.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 9.53 272 56.0(81.2)65.5 2.2 2.3 2.1 7.92 257 37.8 2.3 5.07 105 44.4 0.8 2.62 179 147.2(397.0)349.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 14.67 396 81.9 85.2 63.3 6.3 6.2 5.6 13.82 124(94.2)(31.6)(1,031.3)3.8 4.3 11.58 123 24.8 34.9 1.7 1.7 8.72 169 219.5 1.5 12.5 18.9 12.8 1.4 1.3 1.0 26.5 44.0 0.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 wind 22 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%23 Table_PeopleInfo(021)23219403(021)23219404(021)23219658(021)23219747(0755)82780398(021)23219820(021)23219394(021)23154149(021)23219674(021)23154658(021)23219732(021)23219395(021)23219984(021)23219883(021)23212230(021)23154387(021)23212231(021)23154170 021-23219745(021)23219419(021)23185680(021)23219326(021)23219686(021)23219370(021)23219445(021)23185675(021)23219433(021)23154168(021)23219068(021)23219645(021)23219819(021)23219773 珮(021)23154121 喆(021)23154142(021)23154116 021-23219635(021)23212041(021)23154124 021-23154484(021)23219658(021)23154132(021)23219733 021-23154147(021)23185661(021)23185663(021)23219812(021)23214131(021)23219420(021)23154122 02123154123(021)23219434(021)23219387(021)23219946(021)23219953 02163411361(021)23219404(021)23154143(021)23154505(021)23219635(0755)82780398(021)23219808(010)68067998(021)23154120(010)56760096 86 10 56760096(021)23