20230412_国信证券_家电行业证券研究报告：左侧的思考低基数下的多重共振_31页.pdf

|2023 04 12 0755-S0980520110004 0755-S0980520120004 0755-S0980523020001 2022Q2 10-20%15%-30%2022Q4 30-40%2022Q2 2022Q4+2022Q4+1.5%-0.4%PE-TTM 2021 30.0 x 14.5x 30 x 4 2022Q4+72.6%,+0.12pct 1.4pct+1-2 9.7%3 30+5%1 2023 1-2 2022 2023H2 2 2022H2 2020 2023H2 3/2022-15.3%-58.5%2022 XVBYvMsPmPoPrPpMsPsNoP6MdN6MpNrRsQsRfQoOtPeRnMsQ9PqRmNNZqMnOMYrQmR 2023Q1 E Q1 2023E 2023 2023Q1 E Q1 2023E 2023 955-1000 5%-10%3769 9%75-79 5%-10%320 9%373.1 5.0%2144 10%44.0 10.0%272 10%633-663 5%-10%2654 9%38.7 10.0%171 16%192.2 5.0%815 10%2.9-3.1 10%-15%17 20%21.5 3.0%112 8%3.8 3.0%20 9%4.0-11.0%29 28%0.5-11%4.5 40%2.2-10.0%18 25%0.4-10.0%2.9 35%23.3-25.6 0%-10%114 12%1.7 0.0%6.1 15%11.4-11.7 17%-20%47 15%1.28-1.30 23%-25%4.6 20%31.0-15.0%144 5%1.6-10.0%10.5 10%Wind 01 4 02 Q2 Q3 03 04 01 2023 1 3-5 9-12 2 6-8 11-12 3 2022H2 2023Q4 1 2022 2023 2022 3-5-10%-30%9-12-25%-40%2 2022 6-8-10%10%11-12-10%-30%2022/3 6-8 9-20%-40%Q2 Q4 2-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%Q2 H2 2022Q1-2022Q4 wind JS 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4泉峰控股/15%/12%创科实业/10%/-9%J S 环球生活/0%/-4%海尔智家 10%8%9%2%美的集团 10%1%0%/新宝股份 13%1%-12%/格力电器 6%3%11%/亿田智能 63%4%14%/老板电器 9%-2%2%/火星人 29%0%-9%/九阳股份 4%-5%-3%-7%营业收入增速2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4泉峰控股/48%/250%创科实业/15%/0%J S 环球生活/-8%/-19%海尔智家 13%25%34%-1%美的集团 5%9%6%/新宝股份-12%201%80%/格力电器 14%43%17%/亿田智能 40%9%-32%/火星人 38%-27%-37%/老板电器 4%-29%-9%/九阳股份-3%-24%-19%77%扣非归母利润增速 2023 1 2022Q4+1.5%-0.4%2 3 31 PE-TTM 2021 30.0 x 14.5x 30 xPE PE-TTM 2022Q4+-0.4%10203040506070 wind 02 4+2022Q4+72.57%,Q3+0.12pct 2023 74%/2023 2022 4-5 10-12 13%+6-8-3.9%2023 1-2-1.9%2023 2023 1-2-1.9%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-02:wind 24%25%25%26%26%27%27%28%28%29%71%71%72%72%73%73%74%74%75%75%2019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11+wind 2023 1-2 9.7%-4.6%-8.7%-0.56%2022H2-14%-44%-27%6 2023 2+35.7%+188.3%+78.3%+17.0%+113.9%+92.6%/30-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%wind 21 2-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%30 2023 3 30+43.6%2+30.9%1-3 30+5.3%2022-24.2%1-3+7.6%-1.0%+20.7%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,00030 30-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%30:30:30:30+5.3%wind 2018 2023Q2 2017 2008 2010Q3 2015Q2 1 2017 2017 1 2017 2017 2017 wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01美国家电线下零售额增速 国内家电出口增速 2020-22 2020-2021-2022 2023:-2022 2021 2022 0%2023 1-2-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%050100150200250美国成屋库存（万套）库存同比 2023 2023 1-2-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%开工新建住宅增速 新房销售增速 线下家电销额增速 wind -2022 2022Q4 HomeDepot Walmart TARGET 2022-5%-13%-21%2022 5 1.6 2022 5 2022Q4HomeDepot-5%2022Q4Walmart-13%wind 1.21.31.41.51.61.71.820,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00032,00034,00036,00021-0121-0221-0321-0421-0521-0621-0721-0821-0921-1021-1121-1222-0122-0222-0322-0422-0522-0622-0722-0822-0922-1022-1122-1223-01:0%10%20%30%40%50%1001502002503002020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4Home Depot YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%3003504004505005506006507002020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4Walmart YOY2022Q4TARGET-21%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60801001201401601802020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4TARGET YOY 2023H2 2022 2022-10.9%-21.1%-3.4%-4.7%2023 1-2-13.3%-26.3%-9.2%+0.2%2022H1 2022H2 2020 2023H2 2023H2 wind 21 2-40%-20%0%20%40%60%02040608010019-0119-0319-0519-0719-0919-1120-0120-0320-0520-0720-0920-1121-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-01-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%90%024681019-0119-0319-0519-0719-0919-1120-0120-0320-0520-0720-0920-1121-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-01-40%-20%0%20%40%60%05101519-0119-0319-0519-0719-0919-1120-0120-0320-0520-0720-0920-1121-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-01-30%-10%10%30%50%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.519-0119-0319-0519-0719-0919-1120-0120-0320-0520-0720-0920-1121-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-01 3 29 LME3 LME3 9044/2409/2022 10430/3819/-15.3%-58.5%6159/4919/PPI 0%LME3 600065007000750080008500900095001000010500110002020-10-072020-12-072021-02-072021-04-072021-06-072021-08-072021-10-072021-12-072022-02-072022-04-072022-06-072022-08-072022-10-072022-12-072023-02-07LME3 个 月 铜（美 元/吨）15002000250030003500400045002020-10-072020-12-072021-02-072021-04-072021-06-072021-08-072021-10-072021-12-072022-02-072022-04-072022-06-072022-08-072022-10-072022-12-072023-02-07LME3 个 月 铝（美 元/吨）400045005000550060006500冷 轧 薄板1mm 现 货（元/吨）01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,00005001000150020002500300035002020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-01出口集运 指数-美西 出口集运 指数-美东出口集运 指数-欧洲（右）-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01 PPI PPI PPI LME3 LME 2021 2020 wind 2021 2022H2 2022/2022 0%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%20-0120-0320-0520-0720-0920-1121-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-01-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%20-0120-0320-0520-0720-0920-1121-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-01-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%21-0221-0321-0421-0521-0621-0721-0821-0921-1021-1121-1222-0122-0222-0322-0422-0522-0622-0722-0822-0922-1022-1122-1223-0123-02-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%21-0221-0321-0421-0521-0621-0721-0821-0921-1021-1121-1222-0122-0222-0322-0422-0522-0622-0722-0822-0922-1022-1122-1223-0123-02 03 Q2 Q3 OBM 3 Q1 Q1 OBM 2 OBM Q1 B ROI Q2 ROI 2023Q1/5%10%2023/10%2023 PE 12 wind-Q1 2023-22Q2 22Q1 32%2023Q2 2022Q1 4pct 0 2022 2023Q1/5%10%/+10%2023/+9%/+16%2023 PE 12 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4E 2023Q1E 2023E 2023PE 9.54%0.97%0.02%-8%5%10%9%12 10.97%3.24%0.33%-4%5%10%9%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1E 2023E 2023PE 10.00%8.17%8.62%2.24%5%10%9%12 15.12%16.52%20.28%-2.71%10%16%wind Q2+Q2 22Q2-20%Q2 2022+2023Q1/+5%/+10%2023/+10%/+10%2023 PE 8 2023Q1/+5%/10%15%2023/+10%/+20%2023 PE 14 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4E 2023Q1E 2023E 2023PE 6.02%3.04%10.52%-7%5%10%8 16.28%24.10%10.50%-14%10%10%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1E 2023E 2023PE 31.35%8.19%6.09%-2.32%5%10%14 22.10%-10.91%44.55%691.03%10%-15%20%wind wind-23Q1 Q2 2023 2022 2023 KA 2023Q1/+3%/+3%2023/+8%/+9%2023 PE 14 2023 2022 2022+2022 2023 2023Q1/05%/+5%2023/+10%/+10%2023 PE 13 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4E 2023Q1E 2023E 2023PE 9.3%-2.5%1.7%1%3%8%14 2.5%-17.5%-7.6%0%3%9%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4E 2023Q1E 2023E 2023PE 6.9%4.4%11.5%10%0-5%10%13 2.8%-0.02%2.39%0.8 5%10%wind wind 2023 KA 50%+2023Q1/22Q4-11%/-11%2023/+28%/+40%2023 PE 29 2023-2025 4000 30%KA 2023Q1/22Q4-10%/-10%2023/+25%/+35%2023 PE 16 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4E 2023Q1E 2023E 2023PE 29.2%-0.1%-8.6%-12%-11%28%29 36%-18%-40%0%-11%40%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4E 2023Q1E 2023E 2023PE 63%4.0%14.5%12%-10%25%16 51%7.1%-22%5%-10%35%wind wind 2023+2023Q1 1-2 4.1pct 6.5%2023 Q2 2022Q2 2023Q3 2023Q1/-15%/-10%2023/+5%/+10%2023 PE 14 2022 2023 OPE(OPE)20%+2023+2023H1 2022 Denali 2023/+16%/+38%2023 PE 13 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1E 2023E 2023PE 13.5%1.5%-11.5%-29%-15%5%14 4.6%114%27%-42%-10%10%wind wind 2022H1 2022H2 2023E 2024E 2023PE 15%12%16%16%13 42.3%202%38%26%2022 2022 2023 1-20.3pct 3.7%2022 2022Q3 2022 3.7pct 36.5%2022(/)/2023Q1/17%20%/2325%2023/+15%/+20%2023 PE 24 Q2 Q2 2023 KA SM 22Q2 Q2 2023Q1/0 10%/0%2023/+12%/+15%2023 PE 20 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1E 2023E 2023PE 7.7%20%16.3%14.3%17%20%15%24 18%43%79%40%23%25%20%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1E 2023E 2023PE 3.8%-4.8%-3.2%-7.3%0-10%12%20-7.7%-33.6%-25.3%-69.8%0%15%wind wind 2023Q1 E Q1 2023E 2023 2023Q1 E Q1 2023E 2023 955-1000 5%-10%3769 9%75-79 5%-10%320 9%373.1 5.0%2144 10%44.0 10.0%272 10%633-663 5%-10%2654 9%38.7 10.0%171 16%192.2 5.0%815 10%2.9-3.1 10%-15%17 20%21.5 3.0%112 8%3.8 3.0%20 9%4.0-11.0%29 28%0.5-11%4.5 40%2.2-10.0%18 25%0.4-10.0%2.9 35%23.3-25.6 0%-10%114 12%1.7 0.0%6.1 15%11.4-11.7 17%-20%47 15%1.28-1.30 23%-25%4.6 20%31.0-15.0%144 5%1.6-10.0%10.5 10%wind 04 28 6 20%6 10%-20%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告