20230409_华创证券_家电行业深度研究报告：AI+智造系列一AI颠覆商显生态交互平板迎新机遇_37页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 04 09 AI+AI ChatGPT AIGC AI+AIGC ChatGPT GPT4.0 AI AI iPhone OpenAI GPT 1.0 4.0+AI 2022 11 ChatGPT RLHF ChatGPT 2023 3 GPT4.0 AI ChatGPT ChatGPT AI AI AI iPhone AIGC AIGC AI 1 AI 2 AIGC AIGC ChatGPT Copilot IFPD 2022 372 22.8%3%IFPD Copilot AIGC IFPD AI 1 Google OpenAI 2 API 3 AI AI EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 21.56 0.96 1.21 1.46 22.40 17.79 14.73 3.46 Wind 2023 4 7 S0360520100002 S0360521120002 S0360522090002%()78 0.01()15,755.22 1.63()13,880.69 1.90%1M 6M 12M 1.8%11.3%10.3%-0.0%2.9%12.4%20230327-20230331 2023-04-03 20230320-20230324 2023-03-26 20230313-20230317 2023-03-20-17%-7%3%13%22/04 22/06 22/08 22/11 23/01 23/042022-04-082023-04-07 300 2009 1210 GPT ChatGPT AIGC AI AI+AI AIGC ChatGPT AI AI AI iPhone AI AI ChatGPT Copilot IFPD AI 1 Google OpenAI 2 API 3 AI YWAZyRtOmPqRrPpMrMqPnM6M8QbRpNrRoMsRiNnNqMjMmNmM9PmMuNMYoMxPwMoMmQ 2009 1210 3 AI.7 AIGC.7 1 GPT-1 GPT-3.7 2 InstructGPT ChatGPT“i P h one”.8 3 GPT-4.10 AIGC“A I iPhone”.11 AIGC.14 AI.17.17 1.18 2.21 3.23 AI.24.27 1.28 2.29 3.31 4.32.33 2009 1210 4 1 GPT.7 2 NLP GPT-1.8 3 GPT-3.8 4.9 5.9 6 ChatGPT.9 7 GPT-4“”.10 8 GPT-4.10 9 GPT-4 ChatGPT.10 10 GPT-4.10 11 AIGC.12 12.13 13 ChatGPT iPhone 4.13 14 AIGC.14 15 AIGC.15 16 AIGC.15 17 AI.16 18 AI.16 19 Copilot.16 20 AIGC.16 21 AI.17 22 AI.17 23.18 24 IFPD.18 25 IFPD.18 26 IFPD.19 27 IFPD.19 28 2021 IFPD.19 29 2021 IFPD.19 30.20 31 2020.20 32 2020 IFPD.20 33.21 2009 1210 5 34 IFPD.22 35 IFPD.22 36 2021.22 37.23 38.23 39.23 40.24 41.24 42 AR.24 43 Teams.25 44 Teams Copilot.25 45.26 46.26 47.26 48 MAXHUB Windows.26 49 AI.27 50.28 51/.29 52/.29 53.29 54.29 55.30 56.30 57.30 58.30 59.30 60.31 61.31 62.31 63.32 64.32 65.32 66.33 67.33 68.33 2009 1210 6 69.33 2009 1210 7 ChatGPT AIGC AIGC AI+AI AIGC AI AIGC AI 1956 2012 AlexNet AI 1.0 2017 Google Transformer 2.0 2018 AI GPT GPT 1.0-4.0 2018 OpenAI GPT Generative Pre-trained Transformer NLP Q&A GPT GPT GPT GPT 1 GPT OpenAI 1 GPT-1 GPT-3 GPT NLP GPT-1 2018 GPT-1 AI 1 2 1 1 3 2009 1210 8 4 GPT-1 GPT-1 GPT-1 2 NLP GPT-1 2019 GPT-2 GPT-1 GPT-2 48 15 GPT-2 GPT-2 2020 GPT-3 GPT-3 GPT-3 GPT-2 15 1750 117 45TB GPT-3 GPT-3 GPT-3 GTP-3 3 GPT-3 GPT-1 1.17 12 5GB AI GPT-2 15 48 40GB GPT-3 1750 96 45TB NLP OpenAI 2 InstructGPT ChatGPT iPhone InstructGPT GPT3.5 ChatGPT GPT-3 RLHF Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback 2009 1210 9 ChatGPT InstructGPT RLHF InstructGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT OpenAI API GPT GPT OpenAI GPT GPT GPT GPT GPT GPT 4 5 ChatGPT ChatGPT 6 ChatGPT 2009 1210 10 ChatGPT“”GPT 3 GPT-4 GPT-4(AR)GPT GPT-4 2.5 ChatGPT 8 GPT-4 7 GPT-4 8 GPT-4 OpenAI GPT-4 ChatGPT 30 GPT-4 10%ChatGPT 4080%26 GPT-4 24 GPT-3.5 GPT-4 80.1%9 GPT-4 ChatGPT 10 GPT-4 21tech 21tech 300025000050001000015000200002500030000ChatGPT GPT-4 2009 1210 11 GPT-4 GPT GPT-4“”GPT-4 2021 9 GPT-4 GPT-4+AI ChatGPT GPT4.0 AI AI AIGC AI iPhone AI ChatGPT ChatGPT AI AI ChatGPT GPT4.0 AI AI AI C B AIGC AIGC Game AI AIGC B C C SaaS ChatGPT Copilot AIGC C C C SaaS B AIGC&AIGC B B B C B 2009 1210 12 11 AIGC ChatGPT AI iPhone iPhone Android 2010 2010 2007 iPhone Android 2010 2018 iPhone 4 iPhone 4 2010 iPhone 4 75%2018 2018 2009 1210 13 12 Counterpoint iPhone ChatGPT AIGC ChatGPT iPhone 4 ChatGPT iPhone 4 ChatGPT iPhone 4 iPhone 4 ChatGPT 13 ChatGPT iPhone 4 ChatGPT iPhone 4 A4 Retina APP store iOS 4 FaceTime 3 170 3900+2009 1210 14 AIGC AIGC ChatGPT AIGC 14 AIGC AIGC AIGC NPC“”bug AIGC AIGC AIGC 2009 1210 15 15 AIGC+AI NPC PS PS 3D 36 16 AIGC AI AI AIGC 1“”AIGC 2009 1210 16 2 AIGC B C AIGC AIGC 24 17 AI 18 AI AI Lab bilibili AIGC AIGC Copilot AIGC AIGC/AIGC 19 Copilot 20 AIGC bilibili Nike 2009 1210 17 AI AI 2021-2025 2025 AI 2070 84%AI 10%1%Gartner ChatGPT AI ChatGPT AIGC 21 AI 22 AI&AI 2021-2025&AI 2021-2025 AIGC AI+AI AI AI ChatGPT Copilot OpenAI API ChatGPT AIGC LLM Office Microsoft 365 Copilot AIGC IFPD Interactive Flat-Panel Display 98343663107716062070050010001500200025002020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E AI 不到1%10%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2021 2025E AI 2009 1210 18 23 IFPD 2022 IFPD 372 22.8%IFPD 24 IFPD 25 IFPD 1 IFPD 2020 IFPD 20210%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 IFPD YOY79.3%77.9%74.5%74.2%20.7%22.1%25.5%25.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 IFPD IFPD 2009 1210 19 120 12%IFPD 2020 2021 105 90%26 IFPD 27 IFPD CR5 70%IFPD 50%22%SMART CR5 72%28 2021 IFPD 29 2021 IFPD IFPD IFPD K12 K12 100%99.5%2021 7 IFPD 2022 Q1 IFPD 80.8%2021Q1 8.2%2022Q1 2.1%2021 10 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0204060801001201402018 2019 2020 2021 IFPD YOY-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0204060801001202018 2019 2020 2021 IFPD YOY,47.50%,22.40%,4.90%,4.30%,3.60%,2.80%,2.00%,1.60%,1.30%,0.90%,8.80%SMART,21%Promethean,18%ViewSonic,17%newline,10%Clevertouch/Boxlight,6%Others,28%2009 1210 20 3-5 2022 9 2000+22Q2 18.2%30 31 2020 IFPD IFPD IFPD 2020 1050 IFPD 60%2020 1339 IFPD 15%3783 IFPD 2%IFPD 32 2020 IFPD IFPD 2020 3 307.5 2020 12 2021 3 819 1700 0.0%8.2%18.2%2.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2021Q1 2022Q20%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%幼教小学&初中高中中职高职&大专大学0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%05001000150020002500300035004000中国 参与经合组织的国家 其他国家 IFPD 2009 1210 21 33 2021Q4 175 10 2022-2026 2022 2 1%2021.9 2024 2030 2021Q3 2021 Q3 78.5K IFPD 65 arcelik aidata 2021.7 YouTube live 2021.7 2021 7 30 2023-2027 2.5 2021.4 1.8(American Families Plan)90 2021.4 2.8 2020.3 ESP 307.5 2020.12 2021.3 ESF819 1700 2 2019 2021 IFPD 52.7 35.9%IFPD 25.5 52.7%2009 1210 22 34 IFPD 35 IFPD MAXHUB 2020 7 2021 36 2021 3%Frost&Sullivan 2021 9000 7.8%1%2018 2021 2.4%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%01020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 IFPD YOY0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%01020304050602020 2021 2022E 2023E IFPD YOY 2009 1210 23 37 Frost&Sullivan 3+AI AI 38 39 FITURE 2018 FITURE AI AI KEEP 2021 45.50%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002021年全球会议室数量（万间）2018-2021 全球累计会议交互平板出 货量（万台）渗透率仅为2.4%2009 1210 24 40 KEEP AI KTC LG AR AR AR AR 41 42 AR KTC KTC AI Office Copilot 2023 3 16 Microsoft 365 Copilot Word Excel PowerPoint Outlook Teams Copilot Office 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2009 1210 25 Copilot Copilot in Word Copilot in Excel Copilot in PowerPoint PPT Copilot in Outlook Copilot in Teams Teams AI Teams Teams Company data Teams 2017 200 2022 2.7 Copilot AI Teams Teams 43 Teams 44 Teams Copilot Company data ChatGPT Copilot AI AIGC TOP3/Copilot 2820751452700501001502002503002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Teams 2009 1210 26 45 46 AI AIGC Windows Copilot 47 48 MAXHUB Windows Maxhub Maxhub ChatGPT AI AI 2030 16,000 EFLOPS 1,600 855 CPU GPU DSP AI 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%会议组织协调难会议设备效果不好，会议体验差会后任务无法有效跟进落实会议设备操作不便，影响效率交互性、协作程度低会议纪要整理分享难，信息损耗大 2009 1210 27 49 AI:AI AIGC AI AI 1 Google OpenAI 2 API 3 AI 3.6%ChatGPT VR ChatGPT MAXHUB ODM Windows Copilot KTC FPD AI FITURE ODM 2009 1210 28 Newline 4%5%+Vidda+2022 352.6 AI 2021 IFPD 2.8%IT AI 1+IPTV VR 50 2015 2020 2021 2020 2009 1210 29 2021 51/52/wind wind 53 54 wind wind 2 MAXHUB 2005-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022%-100.00%-50.00%0.00%50.00%100.00%150.00%200.00%250.00%300.00%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%2019202020212022 2009 1210 30 55 2022 209.7-1.2%20.7+21.8%2018 20.1%2021 25.4%2018 6.3%8.0%56 57 Wind Wind 58 59 Wind Wind-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(%)(%)37.2%40.7%46.6%51.5%40.7%0%20%40%60%80%100%201820192020202122H1 2009 1210 31 3 AI 60 2022 115.9-2.5%15.2+64.2%2018 14.2%2022 21.1%2018 5.8%13.1%61 62 Wind Wind-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)2009 1210 32 63 64 Wind Wind 4 Hitevision Newline 65 2021 58.1+45.5%1.7+106.9%22-13.6%+176.1%22 28.4%11.3%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)(%)23.5%31.0%35.7%37.8%40.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%20182019202020212022 2009 1210 33 66 67 Wind Wind 68 69 Wind Wind AI-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-Q3(%)-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.502018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-Q3(%)0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-Q3(%)(%)0%20%40%60%80%100%20192020202122H1 2009 1210 34 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2009 1210 35 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 36(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告