20230411_华安证券_电力设备行业证券研究报告：工商业储能收益持续走高国内市场临近爆发_52页.pdf

1 SAC S0010520020001 2023 4 11 工商业储能收益持续走高，国内市场临近爆发 2 VS BMS PCS PCS PCS EMS EMS 3MW/6MWh 300/0.9819/0.6197 5.47 IRR 9.36%IRR 20%2023 1 68.82MW/385.39MWh 2023 3 23 0.7 1ZEVuNtOoNpOoQmPqNqPmN9P9RbRpNrRpNoNkPqQqMlOpOoM8OqRsOuOrMxONZoMoO3123 VS4 5 4 BMS PCS EMS 5 PCS PCS 50-100kW PCS 6+7 200 100-200 2022 200kWh 170-220kWh 70-110kW 2 Tesla Powerwall 1000kWh 300+kWh Powerwall 13.5kWh100%90%7kW/5kW 1150 x 753 x 147 114/10 Powerwall-20 50 IP67 EMI 10 Tesla Powerwall 8 2022 10%2022 45%44%+10%3 10 GW 2021 2.4GW/4.9GWh 2022 7.762GW/16.428GWh+235%10%1.64GWh 2022 44%45%1%10%9123 VS4 5 10 VS MW PCS BMS EMS 11 VS 8000 Ah 280 280 100 C 1 0.5 1 8000 8000 mm 455*230*760 173.9*71.7*207.2 12 VS BMS PCS;Battery 1 Battery n BMS 1 Battery 1 Battery n BMS 2 Battery 1 Battery n BMS n MBMSPCSBMU 1 BMU 1BMU 1BMU nBMU nBMU n BMS 13 VS PCS PCS 150-750V LEP PCS 1500V(30ms PCS PCS 14 VS EMS EMS EMS EMS EMS EMS EMS 15 PCS PCS 11 22Q3 10 90%646.51+65.1%110.56+113.0%22Q3 1MW YOY YOY 646.51 65.06%110.56 112.98%222.24 44.56%20.61 36.94%40.73 34.49%9.27 131.45%41.67 80.86%7.03 93.75%91.16 20.98%6.48 11.93%27.40 48.27%4.47 58.84%29.16 69.64%2.75 27.90%23.87 33.83%4.70 164.36%9.34 42.01%1.31 65.78%15.32 13.41%0.35-94.66%5.24-32.83%-1.22-21.03%iFinD,16+BMS EMS PCS 1%5%10%+BMS OTA 3%+BWS 5min ASS 3%+HCS 10uS 50ms+EMSAI EDR iFinD,17123 VS4 5 18 3MW/6MWh 10kV 300 22:00-24:00 9:00-11:00 11:00-13:00 19:00-21:00 2023 3 1.4085/kWh 1.0463/kWh 0.4266/kWh 1.8/Wh 1080 70%4.65%DOD90%92%10 MWh 6MWh 300 2/Wh 1.8/Wh%/1.67%/%4.65%DOD%90%92%10 2023 3 0.42661.04631.408500.20.40.60.811.21.41.61 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 19 167.32 33.47 18 14.03 14.47 33.99 10 3MW/6MWh IRR 9.36%70%5.47 01002003004005006001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10（年）5.4733.9914.4714.031833.47167.320 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 20 2023 3 23 0.7 1.3258/0.9819/0.6197 600 167.32 2023 3 0.7/kWh1.325800.20.40.60.811.21.4 21 200kW 2%0.50%4 800kWh 33.47 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 kW 200 196 195.02 194.04 193.07 192.11 191.15 190.19 189.24 188.30 2%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%kW 196 195.02 194.04 193.07 192.11 191.15 190.19 189.24 188.30 187.35 h 4 300 33.47 33.05 32.88 32.72 32.55 32.39 32.23 32.07 31.91 31.75 22 315 3MW 18/kWh/1-10 1.3231 1.1051 0.3533 40 3020 1.3025 1.0830 0.3366 40 3035 1.2919 1.0682 0.3248 40 30110 1.2631 1.0456 0.3017 40 30220 1.2394 1.0271 0.2876 40 30 2023 3 23 20 4/kWh 2/kWh 14.03 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5684.21 5542.11 5403.55 5268.46 5136.75 5008.33 4883.13 4761.05 4642.02 4525.97 0.2425 0.2364 0.2305 0.2248 0.2191 0.2137 0.2083 0.2031 0.1980 0.1931 4719.60 4601.61 4486.57 4374.41 4265.05 4158.42 4054.46 3953.10 3854.27 3757.91/2 0.7014 0.6839 0.6668 0.6501 0.6339 0.6180 0.6026 0.5875 0.5728 0.5585 20 14.03 13.68 13.36 13.00 12.68 12.36 12.05 11.75 11.46 11.17 24 VPP 0.5/kWh 14.47 1 5684.21 4719.60 964.61 14.472 5542.11 4601.61 940.50 14.113 5403.55 4486.57 916.98 13.754 5268.46 4374.41 894.06 13.415 5136.75 4265.05 871.71 13.086 5008.33 4158.42 849.91 12.757 4883.13 4054.46 828.67 12.438 4761.05 3953.10 807.95 12.129 4642.02 3854.27 787.75 11.8210 4525.97 3757.91 768.06 11.52 25 0.75/kWh 300 33.99 26LCOE LCOE LCOE 0.68/kWh 0.7/kWh LCOE=/=+-1896.42=*2*300LCOE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10805%224.11 35.15 31.64 32.05 30.56 29.14 27.78 26.49 25.26 24.08 22.96 138.99 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 486.47 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 33.15 54 1896.42 5684.21 5542.11 5403.55 5268.46 5136.75 5008.33 4883.13 4761.05 4642.02 4525.97 4719.60 4601.61 4486.57 4374.41 4265.05 4158.42 4054.46 3953.10 3854.27 3757.91 5201.91 5071.86 4945.06 4821.43 4700.90 4583.38 4468.79 4357.07 4248.15 4141.94 27/Wh/kWh 1.50 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.300.9702/0.6115 14.07%11.74%10.67%9.67%8.73%7.84%6.99%6.19%5.43%4.70%3.35%2.11%0.97%0.9819/0.6197 15.85%13.42%12.31%11.27%10.29%9.36%8.48%7.65%6.85%6.10%4.69%3.41%2.23%0.9779/0.6151 16.00%13.56%12.45%11.41%10.43%9.49%8.61%7.77%6.98%6.22%4.81%3.52%2.34%0.9678/0.6166 15.65%13.23%12.13%11.10%10.12%9.19%8.32%7.49%6.70%5.95%4.55%3.27%2.10%0.9698/0.7518 25.87%22.87%21.51%20.23%19.02%17.88%16.81%15.79%14.82%13.90%12.18%10.62%9.20%/0.9819/0.6197 1.8/Wh IRR 9.36%IRR 20%IRR 28 2023 1 26 16 68.82MW/385.39MWh 6.8 2 2023 1 0.25MW/0.5MWh 0.25MW/0.5MWh 160 2023.1.19 2023.3-2024.333MW/66MWh 33MW/66MWh 13200 2023.1.18 2023.6-2024.6 28.98MW/305.23MWh 25334 2023.1.3 2023.1-2025.1 2.0MWh 1.0MW/2.0MWh 500 2023.1.9 2023.2-2023.3 0.75MW/1.5MWh 0.75MW/1.5MWh 480 2023.1.18 2023.3-2024.3 0.25MW/0.5MWh 0.25MW/0.5MWh 160 2023.1.19 2023.3-2024.3 68.82MW/385.39MWh 29123 VS4 5 30 2010-2022 2022 1.33%17.20%15.47%64.77%1.22%65.99%2022 86372 kWh+3.6%57001 kWh+1.2%55943 kWh+1.6%2010-2022 CAGR 5.1%2022 1.3%17.2%15.5%66%64.8%55943-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 kwh YOY iFinD 31 2022 C 1250 8 21 4 2022 32 12 1.5 12 1.5 12 1 12 5 17 634 2022 7-12 157 kWh 0.172/kWh 27 5 17 33 2021.7.26 2022.1.29 2025 30 2030 2022.4.2 2022.6.7/2022.7.23 34 40%4:1 3:1 95%20%2021 7 26 20%35 1.17-1.813 17%-81.3%50%0.3-0.79 21%-70%90%50%1.171.51.8130 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 0.790.50.30 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1-5 9-12 36 2022 12 10 2023 3 23 0.7 1.32/2023 3 0.7/kWh1.325800.20.40.60.811.21.4 372021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 29.28 51.11 76.67 107.33 138.53 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 1:1 GW 14.64 25.56 38.33 53.67 69.77%5%10%15%17.5%20%GW 0.73 2.56 5.75 9.39 13.95 h 2 2 2 2 2 GWh 1.46 5.11 11.50 18.78 27.91 iFinD+1:1 2:1 2023 5.75GW/11.50GWh 2024 9.39GW/18.78GWh 2025 13.95GW/27.91GWh 2023-2025 29.09GW/58.19GWh 55.8%38123 VS4 5 39 688676.SH 2022 7,6kV-35kV 20MW/40MWh500kW/1MWh 1000V/1500V 5kW-10kW 10kWh-20kWh 40 2022 47.46+43.7%32.68+32.3%68.9%+49.9%+113.2%+122.2%9.63+24.0%2022 20.3%2022 Q3 Q4+1.39pct/2pct iFinD,47.460%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%051015202530354045502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4%41+003035.SZ 5A 5A 2023 4 7 40.39%22H1 9.08+17.2%,2022 6 30 2022 33.08 226 116.02 2022 59 0.55 3.41+45.6%2022 1 150MW 8 340MW 42 2017-2021 9.36 26 29.10%22H1 13.09+21.43%2017-2021 3.39 10 3.02 7.98 27.5%60%2017-22H1 50%22H1 63.9%iFinD,%13.090%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0510152025302017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22H1 YOY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22H1 43 603105.SH+EPC+2022 87%,291.94385.64489.25549.94631.9101002003004005006007008002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 MW 44 2022 67531 10983+19.4%2018-2022 2.1 5.29 CAGR 26.0%100 1200 2022 1.92+74.6%iFinD,2018-2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%012345672018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%00.511.522.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YOY2018-2022 45 300286.SZ-EMS EIOT EMS EIOT 462017-2022 2020 2021 2021 2022 8.99 88.2%2022 4.6 45.1%10%17.0%14.7%10.6%2022 iFinD,0246810122017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-45.14%16.98%14.72%10.60%47EPCO 300982.SZ E P C O EPCO EPC EPCO E P C O j 48 2017-2021 4.71 18.56 CAGR 40.9%22H1 8.92+22.8%13 22H1 2.08 23.3%17-22H1 iFinD,18.568.920%10%20%30%40%50%60%024681012141618202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22H1 YOY6.852.0876.71%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%024681012141618202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22H1 49 2+2 603050.SH+2021 20.39+16.3%17.77+16.7%87.2%iFinD,0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY 50 51重要声明分析师声 明 免责声明 投资评级 说明 6 A 300 500 行业评级 体系 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;公司评级 体系 6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告