20230313_华安证券_机床行业证券研究报告：多因素助力恢复进口替代持续加速_32页.pdf

Table_Summary 2023 2 PMI 52.6 1 2 67%120%1 2021 1800 2022 76%2 2023 2 PMI 52.6 1 2022 2 2018 33%2021 27%2025 40.9 496.5 21-25 CAGR 16.9%9.5%1 12 2020 9%10.7%2 36%1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Table_StockNameRptType/Table_Rank 2023-03-13 Table_Chart 300 Table_Author S0010522070003-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%300 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 2/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.7 2.9 2.1 2022.9 2.2.10 2.3.12 3.16 3.1.16 3.2.16 4.20 4.1.20 4.2.23 4.3.25 4.4.27.30 1ZDWzQmRtQrQrPnOmRsNmNaQaObRoMoOmOpMiNoOmPkPpOnR8OnNzRMYsPnMwMmMrO 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 3/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 1.5 2 2021 709 19.8%.5 3 2021 1800+24%.6 4 2021 34%.6 5.6 6 2022 76%.7 7 2022-13.1%-15.7%.7 8.7 9.8 10.8 11.9 12 2022-0.3%+43.7%.10 13.10 14.10 15 PMI PMI.11 16.11 17.11 18 2018.12 19.12 20.12 21 2022+5%.12 22 2021.13 23.13 24.13 25.14 26 2021 27%.15 27.15 28 2020 12 9%.16 29 2021 12 10.7%.16 30 2022.17 31 2022.17 32.18 33.18 34 2020-2021.19 35.19 36.20 37.20 38.21 39.21 40.22 41.22 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 4/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 42.22 43.22 44.23 45.23 46 2022Q1-3-28%.23 47.24 48.24 49.24 50.25 51.25 52.25 53.26 54.26 55.26 56 2021 45%.27 57.27 58.27 59.28 60.28 61.28 62.28 63.29 64.29 65.29 66.29 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 5/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 1.1.1 1 2021 709 19.8%VDW 2020 592 2021 709 19.8%2019 2020 2 2021 709 19.8%VDW-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01002003004005006007008009002017 2018 2019 2020 2021-yoy%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 6/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2021 1800 VDW 2021 31%34%2021 1664 1800 26%24%3 2021 1800+24%4 2021 34%VDW VDW 5 12 70%2022 57.2 18.3 2022 76%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021%34%13%6%6%5%37%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 7/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 6 2022 76%7 2022 40%17%13%8 1.2 1 2023 2 PMI 52.6 2023 2 PMI 52.6 1 50.1 PMI 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01020304050607080902015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%,40%,17%,13%,10%,20%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 8/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 9 Wind iFind 2023 1 2 3.5 1.1 67%120%1 10 iFind 2-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.0046485052545658602013-012013-042013-072013-102014-012014-042014-072014-102015-012015-042015-072015-102016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-01PMI-:-:-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,0002017-092017-112018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 9/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2011-2014 10 2011 11 Wind 2.2.1 2022 2022 2021 2022 0.3%2021 26.2%43.7%01020304050607080901002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E2024E2025E 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 10/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 12 2022-0.3%+43.7%2022 23.3%5.4%2022-10.9%41.8%13 14 2.2 iFind PMI PMI-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%2022/01-03 2022/01-06 2022/01-09 2022/01-12%-30.00%-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%2022/01-03 2022/01-06 2022/01-09 2022/01-12-%-%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 11/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 15 PMI PMI 16 iFind iFind 17 4 3 2021 44.9%Research in China 2018 75%35.0040.0045.0050.0055.0060.002023-022022-112022-082022-052022-022021-112021-082021-052021-022020-112020-082020-052020-022019-112019-082019-052019-022018-112018-082018-052018-02 PMI:PMI-40.00-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.002022-122022-092022-062022-032021-112021-082021-052021-022020-102020-072020-042019-122019-092019-062019-032018-112018-082018-052018-022017-102017-072017-04():():敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 12/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 18 2018 19 Research in China iFind 2022 13.1%JMTBA 2022 3770 5%20 21 2022+5%iFind JMTBA 2.3 2021 19.5/1.92/10 2018 6%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(%)-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.002022-122022-092022-062022-032021-112021-082021-052021-022020-102020-072020-042019-122019-092019-062019-032018-112018-082018-052018-022017-102017-072017-04:-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503003504002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023/01%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 13/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 22 2021 23 24 2025 2022 9 ETF 2023 2 0510152025/0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018%,45%,29%,16.5%,9.5%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 14/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 25/2015.05 2020 60%10%50%2025 80%80%30%80%2019.1 2019“”2021.03 2035 2022.06 2022 2022.09 2022.09 ETF ETF ETF 2023.02 VDW 2018 33%2021 27%2021 479 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 15/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 26 2021 27%VDW 2025 40.9 2021-2025 CAGR 16.9%496.5 2021-2025 CAGR 9.5%2022 2022 0.3%2022 5%2023 5%2024 2025 3%2018 10%30%1pct 2pct 2018 6%65%1pct 2pct 27 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 1924 1537 1448 1800 1710 1795 1849 1905%75%75%75%75%75%75%75%75%1443 1153 1086 1350 1282 1346 1387 1428%15%16%17%18%19%20%21%22%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%13.0 12.9 14.8 21.9 24.4 29.6 34.9 40.9 Yoy%-0.6%14.4%48.1%11.4%21.6%18.0%16.9%30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%65%67%69%71%73%75%77%79%281.4 247.2 254.8 345.0 355.7 403.9 448.5 496.5 Yoy%-12.1%3.1%35.4%3.1%13.6%11.0%10.7%294.4 260.1 269.5 366.9 380.1 433.6 483.5 537.4 Yoy%-11.6%3.6%36.1%3.6%14.1%11.5%11.2%VDW 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%01002003004005006007002018 2019 2020 2021%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 16/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 3.3.1 2020 2021 VDW 12 2020 9%2021 10.7%1.7pct 28 2020 12 9%29 2021 12 10.7%VDW VDW 3.2 2022 1-12 23.7 36%79.4%31.2%,2.1%,1.1%,1.2%,0.8%,0.9%,0.4%,0.4%,0.3%,0.3%,0.0%,91.0%,2.8%,1.5%,1.3%,0.9%,0.9%,0.5%,0.4%,0.3%,0.3%,0.1%,89.3%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 17/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 11.6%65.3%30 2022%1 23.7-11.0%36.0%2 10.8-12.4%16.3%3 8.1-12.0%12.2%4 5.2-16.7%7.8%5 4.6 48.1%7.0%31 2022%1 19.7 19.4%31.2%2 7.3 37.8%11.6%3 5 19.5%8.0%4 4.7 60.6%7.4%5 4.5 23.5%7.1%130-160/25-35/敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 18/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 32 33 Wind 2020 2020 2021 0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.002018 2019 2020 2021/敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 19/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 34 2020-2021 35 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022Q1-3 2021 2022Q1-3/%97%5,262 20.4 53.6%-5.8%-170.2%9.3%52%5,052 18.3 23.4%-23.9%58.0%-22.6%60%23%12%2,730 61.5 67.3%17.8%168.5%48.3%*ST 64%4%7%1,699 16.8 26.5%-3.1%28.1%-100.7%45%29%23%1,713 57.3 47.1%5.5%62.1%65.1%51%1,634-23.6%-6.3%2.1%-110.5%36%2,185 50.8 14.1%0.5%-52.9%-981.5%39%34%1,137 47.7 54.5%4.2%65.4%-1.3%CNC 7%2022 55%7,066 18.0-7.5%-89.2%30.4%135.1%53%32%14%541 13.1 31.7%10.8%37.1%-6.5%93%254 185.2 28.0%28.5%107.6%-28.0%iFind 0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.0 2021-2020-2021/-2020/-敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 20/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 4.4.1 2002 2021 27.3 2016-2021 22%2022 Q1-Q3 23.7 17.8%3.9 48.3%36 37 Wind Wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 21/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2022 Q1-Q3 25.7%2021 2019 2019 6.6%2022 Q1-Q3 16.5%2016-2022 Q1-Q3 2016 16.4%2022Q1-Q3 4.1%5 12.3pct 38 39 Wind Wind 2021 14 51.9%2016-2021 CAGR 17.7%30%2021 7.1 86.3%2016-2021 CAGR 39.5%2019 1.5%2021 12.3%2021 4.4 142.8%2021 2016-2021 CAGR 31.6%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 22/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 40 41 Wind Wind 2016 0.3 2021 1.9 CAGR 43%2019 2021 2016 26.4%2021 33.3%5 6.9pct 2018 10pct 2020 17pct 42 43 Wind Wind-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.00200.00400.00600.00800.001,000.001,200.001,400.001,600.002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-%-%-%-%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-%-%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 23/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2022 44-8 5 10 6 11.2-10 27 4.2 2008 2017-2021 27.8%2022 Q1-Q3 2.07 28.5%2021 7282 108%2022 3322 28%45 46 2022Q1-3-28%iFind iFind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0.05,000.010,000.015,000.020,000.025,000.030,000.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3-700%-600%-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%-6,000.00-4,000.00-2,000.000.002,000.004,000.006,000.008,000.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1-Q3 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 24/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2022 Q1-Q3 41.7%2021 2022 16.1%2019 2022 16.6%2021 1pct 47 48 iFind iFind 49()/2023 3 4 23 6-50.00%-40.00%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1-Q3-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1-Q3 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 25/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 50 32,909.68 23,400 13,012.36 9,000 14,731.12 9,600 18,000 18,000 4.3 200 30 2017-2021 21.9%2022 Q1-Q3 13.5 5.5%1.9 65.12%51 52 iFind iFind 2022 Q1-Q3 27.6%2021 2017 2019 6.4%2022 Q1-Q3 14.1%2017-2022 Q1-Q3 2017 17%2022Q1-Q3 8.9%5 8.1pct 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.0020,000.0040,000.0060,000.0080,000.00100,000.00120,000.00140,000.00160,000.00180,000.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0.002,000.004,000.006,000.008,000.0010,000.0012,000.0014,000.0016,000.0018,000.0020,000.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1-Q3 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 26/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 53 54 iFind iFind 200 55 2021 45%29%23%2017 23%2021 45%2021 7.8 73.5%2017-2021 51%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1-Q3 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 27/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 56 2021 45%57 iFind iFind 2021 2021 2.1 55%46%58 iFind 4.4 2020 2017-2021 10.2%2022 Q1-Q3 4.5 10.8%0.54-6.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.0010,000.0020,000.0030,000.0040,000.0050,000.0060,000.0070,000.0080,000.0090,000.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0.0020,000.0040,000.0060,000.0080,000.00100,000.00120,000.00140,000.00160,000.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy-yoy-敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 28/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 59 60 iFind iFind 2022 Q1-Q3 33.7%2021 2022Q1-3 11.9%2018 15%-16%2022 Q1-Q3 16.1%2021 61 62 iFind iFind 2017 39%2022 69%2021 2.9 2017-2021 22%2017 39%2022 69%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0.0010,000.0020,000.0030,000.0040,000.0050,000.0060,000.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.007,000.008,000.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1-Q3-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 29/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 63 64 iFind iFind 2021 0.32 2017-2021 31%2022 0.28 24.8%2017 3.3%2022 6.13%65 66 iFind iFind 0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0.005,000.0010,000.0015,000.0020,000.0025,000.0030,000.0035,000.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.00500.001,000.001,500.002,000.002,500.003,000.003,500.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H yoy0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1H 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 30/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 1 2 3 3 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 31/31 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 Table_Introduction 2 15 Table_Reputation Table_RankIntroduction 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告