20230318_招商证券_银行业信用卡专题：以美观中信用卡业务将走向何方？_24页.pdf

|2023 03 18/22Q3 9250 2000 10%5%1950-1958 1958-20 20 22Q3 9250 08 VISA American Express Discover MasterCard Visa VISA 4 2021 1543 2018 2018 2018 21Q1 22Q3 4.3%2021 8 2.8%5%10%5%21EPS 22EPS 23EPS 22PE 23PE PB 12.75 1.87 2.35 2.85 5.4 4.5 0.68 27.25 2.96 3.55 4.10 7.7 6.6 1.20 34.36 4.76 5.48 6.23 6.3 5.5 1.08 7.04 1.33 1.67 2.02 4.2 3.5 0.64%39 0.8 54060 6.5 49186 7.0%1m 6m 12m-0.1 1.0 4.5 1.7 0.3 11.1 1 2023-03-18 2 2022 2023-03-13 3 2 2 2023-03-12 S1090521010002-20.0-15.0-10.0-5.00.05.010.0Mar/22 Jul/22 Nov/22 Feb/23(%)银行 沪深300 2.4 1.1.4 1.2.4 1.3 VISA.8.11.14 3.1.14 3.2-.17.18.19.22.22 1 20.5 2.5 3.6 4 2021%.6 5 2022Q3.7 6 30.7 7 30%.7 8 90%.8 9 90%.8 10%.8 11 2021.9 12.9 13.9 14.9 15 2021 15.10 1ZAZwPtOpMmNpRpMsPtMmN6McM7NsQmMmOoNeRpPpMjMmOmM8OmMuMNZmRnNNZmOsP 3 16 2021 15.10 17 2021 15.11 18.11 19.11 20.12 21.12 22.13 23.13 24.13 25.14 26.14 27.15 28.15 29.16 30.17 31.17 32.18 33.18 34.18 35 2021 0.57.19 36.19 37 2022.20 38 1H22.20 39 2022.21 40 2022.21 41.21 1 MasterCard.15 2 Assessment Fees.15 3.16 4 1.1 1 1950-1958 1950-Diners Club Card 1958 American Express 2 1958-20 1958 BankAmericard 20 60 1966 MasterCharge MasterCard 1970 BankAmericard Visa 20 80 3 20-2008 20 2009 Credit Card Accountability,Responsibility and Disclosure(CARD)Act of 2009 1.2 2021 84%,2008 8600 13Q1 6600 2013 2019 9270 2020 21Q1 7700 2022 2022 8500 08Q2 5 1 20 New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax 20 03Q1 9.51%22Q3 5.60%2020 2020 6%2 New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax 2008 4.96 2010 3.78 2019 2020 2021 500055006000650070007500800085009000950003:Q1 05:Q1 07:Q1 09:Q1 11:Q1 13:Q1 15:Q1 17:Q1 19:Q1 21:Q164%65%66%67%68%69%70%71%72%73%74%75%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%03:Q103:Q404:Q305:Q206:Q106:Q407:Q308:Q209:Q109:Q410:Q311:Q212:Q112:Q413:Q314:Q215:Q115:Q416:Q317:Q218:Q118:Q419:Q320:Q221:Q121:Q422:Q3HE Revolving Auto Loan Credit CardStudent Loan Other Mortgage（右轴）6 3 New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax 2021 84%2021 84%12 52%48%98%2.5 57%50%36%4 2021%Federal Reserve 70 60 69 70 8.44%60 69 6.62%18 29 30035040045050055060003:Q103:Q404:Q305:Q206:Q106:Q407:Q308:Q209:Q109:Q410:Q311:Q212:Q112:Q413:Q314:Q215:Q115:Q416:Q317:Q218:Q118:Q419:Q320:Q221:Q121:Q422:Q35757338459499450479836368448400 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Has a credit cardCarried a balance(among credit card holders)Carried a balance(among adults)Overall$100,000 or more$50,000$99,999$25,000$49,999$25,000 7 5 2022Q3 New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax 30 08Q4 30 304.2 17Q1 123 30 13%2014 6%22Q3 30 5.24%6 30 7 30%New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax 90 7%2008 90 13.7%10%22Q3 7.6%18 29 90 30 39 0%20%40%60%80%100%18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+Auto Loans Credit Card Mortgage HELOC Student Loans Other0510152025303503:Q103:Q304:Q104:Q305:Q105:Q306:Q106:Q307:Q107:Q308:Q108:Q309:Q109:Q310:Q110:Q311:Q111:Q312:Q112:Q313:Q113:Q314:Q114:Q315:Q115:Q316:Q116:Q317:Q1024681012141603:Q103:Q404:Q305:Q206:Q106:Q407:Q308:Q209:Q109:Q410:Q311:Q212:Q112:Q413:Q314:Q215:Q115:Q416:Q317:Q218:Q118:Q419:Q320:Q221:Q121:Q422:Q3AUTO CC MORTGAGEHELOC STUDENT LOAN OTHER 8 8 90%9 90%New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax 10%2014 2019 2020 14.6%2022 2022 11 19.1%1994 10%10%New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax 1.3 VISA 1-VISA American Express Discover MasterCard Visa American Express Discover 86%2021 Visa 42%MasterCard 27%American Express 10%Discover 7%14%024681012141603:Q1 04:Q4 06:Q3 08:Q2 10:Q1 11:Q4 13:Q3 15:Q2 17:Q1 18:Q4 20:Q3 22:Q2MORTGAGE HELOC AUTOCC STUDENT LOAN OTHER024681012141600:Q100:Q401:Q302:Q203:Q103:Q404:Q305:Q206:Q106:Q407:Q308:Q209:Q109:Q410:Q311:Q212:Q112:Q413:Q314:Q215:Q115:Q416:Q317:Q218:Q118:Q419:Q320:Q221:Q121:Q422:Q318-29 30-39 40-4950-59 60-69 70+101214161820Nov-94Aug-95May-96Feb-97Nov-97Aug-98May-99Feb-00Nov-00Aug-01May-02Feb-03Nov-03Aug-04May-05Feb-06Nov-06Aug-07May-08Feb-09Nov-09Aug-10May-11Feb-12Nov-12Aug-13May-14Feb-15Nov-15Aug-16May-17Feb-18Nov-18Aug-19May-20Feb-21Nov-21Aug-22All Accounts Accounts Assessed Interest 9 11 2021 Nilson Report Visa Discover 2021 Visa 2.4 52.6%2012 Visa 2021 MasterCard American Express 1.09 0.9 20%Discover 2021 0.18 4%12 13 Visa American Express Visa 2021 3.6 2021 MasterCard 2.7 Visa Visa American Express Discover 0.6 14 Nilson Report 42%27%10%7%14%Visa MasterCard American Express Discover Others05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Visa MasterCardAmerican Express Discover0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Visa MasterCardAmerican Express Discover0501001502002503003504002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Visa MasterCard American Express Discover 10 2 2021 1543 2021 American Express Capital One 15 8215 15 2021 15 Nilson Report 2021 1.49 2021 5 Capital One Discover 15 6.38 16 2021 15 Nilson Report 2021 9504.7 2021 5 American Express Capital One 15 2021 4 154.3115.3107.8798.0392.5774.3740.0934.7722.12 21.76 21.414.478.25 8.21 8.03020406080100120140160180149.3106.978.76155.448.428.923.6 22.417.511.5 10.68.2 7.8 7.6020406080100120140160 11 17 2021 15 Nilson Report 1-2021 8935 800 2020 2017 2021 2017 6222 2020 13.8%2021 8935 22%2020 2021 2020 41.9%2021 800 18 19 2021 50.8 2021 235.9 2020 27.1%2019 51 2020 44.4 2021 50.8 2021 50.8 14.5%950.47867.59482.6454.96413.97182.13165.71138.5979.5465.7752.83 47.83 45.46 37.7326.901002003004005006007008009001000010020030040050060070080090010002017 2018 2019 2020 202101234567892017 2018 2019 2020 2021 12 20 2-2021 1516.8 2017 2019 2017 1654.5 2019 1750.7 2020 1530.8 12.6%2021 1516.8 21 2021 2.8 98.2 2019 10.5 2020-0.2 2021 2.8 2020 80 2019 18.7%4000420044004600480050005200-20000-15000-10000-50000500010000150002000025000300002019 2020 2021Interchange and merchant processing income Reward costs and partner paymentsOther card income Total card income（右轴）0204060801001201401601802002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 13 22 3-2021 77.7 753.9 2017 2019 87.9 101.7 2019 2021 2020 2021 87.6 77.7 2017 2018 910.7 946.1 2019 2021 753.9 23 24 2021 359 2018 2021 2019 2018 4.8%2020 251 41.9%2021 2019(200)02004006008001,0001,200(15,000)(10,000)(5,000)05,00010,00015,0002019 2020 2021Interchange fees Card-related loan feesCard rewards and partner payments Total（右轴）02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 14 25 2021 3116 2018 2021 2019 2779 5%2020 9.4%2516 2021 2020 23.8%3116 26 3.1 0501001502002503003504004505002018 2019 2020 2021050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,0002018 2019 2020 2021 15 27 28 1 80%10%2 Interchange Fee Assessment Fee Payment Processing Fee Interchange Fee American Express Discover MasterCard Visa Visa MasterCard Discover American Express 1 MasterCard/MC Credit Consumer 1.58%+$0.10 1.89%+$0.10 MC Credit Consumer Enhanced 1.73%+$0.10 2.04%+$0.10 MC Credit World 1.77%+$0.10 2.05%+$0.10 MC Credit World Elite 2.20%+$0.10 2.50%+$0.10 MasterCard Assessment Fee Interchange Fee American Express 0.165%MasterCard 1000 0.01%2 Assessment Fees Visa MasterCard Discover American Express 0.14%0.1375%($1,000);0.01%($1,000)0.14%0.165%信用卡收入利息收入支付手续费发卡行收取结算通道收取结算设备提供方收取使用费用年费滞纳金收支转移费现金预付费暂停偿债费用其他费用信用卡收入利息收入非利息收入年费商户回佣违约金分期手续费其他费用 16 Wells Fargo Merchant Services Payment Network Pass-Through Fee Schedule Paypal Square 2016 3 18 2016 9 6 0.6%2 项目 费率 0.35%13 0.45%0.0325%3.25 0.0325%3.25 3-2020 10.9%9.8%2015 29 2017 2020 2017 2019 2020 17 30 2015 2020 2015 6 2020 13 31 3.2-90 8%90 13.7%10%22Q3 7.6%18 29 90 30 39 IT Rewards Card 2017 2020 2020 60%18 32 1 2018 08Q4 1582 18Q4 6.85 07Q2 4116 18Q4 15.4 2011 2.85 2018 8.86 2018 2018 18Q1 35.8%22Q3 4.3%20Q1 2800 21Q1 10%22Q3 4.29%2017 2021 8 2.8%2017 26.5%33 34 Wind Wind 2 2011 0.21 2021 0.57 3.84 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002007-062008-022008-102009-062010-022010-102011-062012-022012-102013-062014-022014-102015-062016-022016-102017-062018-022018-102019-062020-022020-102021-062022-02银行卡期末授信总额（亿元）银行卡期末应偿信贷总额（亿元）期末信贷总额：同比（右轴）-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01234567892011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021信用卡发行量（亿张）信用卡发行量增长率（右轴）19 35 2021 0.57 Wind 20 2500-3500 22Q3 3283 22Q3 8.76 0.57 2022 2022 14.1 9.2 3000 15 8-9 2.5 17 5%36 New York Fed 2022 9 8.76 2000 5%2022 6 A 9103 8545 2021 1.6%1.7%22Q2 2021 4.43%3.98%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.000.100.200.300.400.500.602011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021信用卡人均持卡量（张）增速（右轴）05001000150020002500300035004000450050002003:Q12003:Q42004:Q32005:Q22006:Q12006:Q42007:Q32008:Q22009:Q12009:Q42010:Q32011:Q22012:Q12012:Q42013:Q32014:Q22015:Q12015:Q42016:Q32017:Q22018:Q12018:Q42019:Q32020:Q22021:Q12021:Q42022:Q318-29 30-59 60-79 overall 20 37 2022 2022 6 5%2021 18.5%14.4%38 1H22 2022 3%2022 1.44%1.67%2.95%2.73%2.66%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,0002022 年6 月底信用卡贷款余额（亿元）较2021 年底增减（右轴）0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%信用卡贷款占比 21 39 2022 2022 2022 2.39 4.9%1.79 1.2%1H22 12.2%10.1%40 2022 2021 867.54 25.3%1H22 140.25 30.86%0.39 314.22 1H22 454.47 25.4%41 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%工商银行 建设银行 交通银行 招商银行 中信银行 浦发银行 民生银行 兴业银行 平安银行-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000交通银行 招商银行 中信银行 浦发银行 民生银行 兴业银行 光大银行 平安银行2022 年上半年信用卡交易额（亿元）同比增减（右轴）020040060080010002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1H22 22 1994 10%1H22 25.4%ROE 2021 867.5 23 2021 2018 WIND 2019 WIND 2020 WIND 2022 2020 2021 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告