20230327_东方证券_锡行业证券研究报告：锡价拐点或至有望逐步进入上行区间_35页.pdf

|80%6 2022 9 2023 3 2023-2025 2.6/2.9/3.2 22-25 3.3/3.5/3.9/4.3 80%1 2023 2 23-25 39.5/41.0/40.8 3.95%/3.78%/-0.65%2022 3 23-25 0.12/-0.27/-1.93 23-25 0.1 2/-0.2 7/-1.9 3(0 0 0 9 6 0)(6 0 0 3 0 1)(0 0 0 4 2 6)/2023 03 27 021-63325888*6084 S0860520010002 BTB487 2.5.7 1.1 23Q2.7 1.2.9 1.3 PVC 66%.11.12 2.1.14 2.2.17 2.3.23.29.32 XVEVxOnQoNpOpRsRtOsNqR9PbP8OnPrRmOnOeRoOmPlOsQxPaQoPrNNZnOwOuOnNpP 3 1.5 2/.6 3.7 4 2021.7 5 2021.7 6 2021.7 7 2021.8 8%.8 9 2022 12.8 10.9 11.9 12 2022-2025 2.1/2.6/2.9/3.2.10 13 2021.11 14 2021 PVC.11 15.12 16 22.12 17.13 18(2022).13 19 2013-2022.13 20 2022.13 21 15.14 22 2019.14 23 2010-2022.15 24.15 25(.16 26.16 27.16 28.16 29 2017-2022.17 30 2010-2022.17 31 2021.17 32 2022.17 33.18 34.18 4 35 2020.18 36 95%.19 37 2014-2022 9.19 38 2014-2021.19 39.19 40.20 41 2013-2022.20 42 2016.20 43.21 44 San Rafael.22 45 San Rafael.22 46 Pitinga.22 47.23 48.23 49 Bisie.25 50 Bisie.25 51 Uis.26 52.26 53 Metals X Ltd.26 54 90/.30 55 ITA 2027(/).30 1 5-8.9 2.10 3 TOP10(:).14 4 2023-2024/.23 5 Manono.25 6 2012 10 17.27 7 Australian Tin Resources Ardlethan.28 8 2021-2025.29 9 2010-2030/.30 5 231.89 2260 100 13.2 161 13.2 161 1 2009 2009.1-2015.12 2009 2011 LME 3 1.09/3.30/2011 2013 23%2016.1-2020.3 2016 1.33/2.19/2019 2/2019 1.32/30%6 2020.4-2022.10 20Q221Q1 21Q221Q4 22Q1+22Q222Q3 2022.11 2022 11 2 75bp 50bp 2/wind 7 1.1 23Q2 50%2017-2022 36-39 2021 49%17%12%7%7%2021 71%2021 47%3 4 2021 ITA ITA 5 2021 6 2021 ITA ITA 80%2023 1 30.032.034.036.038.040.0:(49%17%12%7%7%8%47%24%14%14%1%65%12%7%8%4%5%8 80%2021 26%24%19%16%7 2021 8%wind 3.5 1976 13 2019 13 3.5 37+19 18 2019 7 2022 3 2022 9 32 2001 10 2005 7 9 2022 12 wind 2023 18 6 2001 10 2005 7 1 7 2001.10-2005.7 26%24%19%16%15%-100-50050100150-40-2002040608004-0405-0706-1008-0109-0410-0711-1013-0114-0415-0716-1018-0119-0420-0721-1023-01:LME:9 2022 9 2023 3 1 5-8(+-1996.9-1998.7 23 12 11 5 1998.8-2001.9 24 12 12 7 2001.10-2005.7 46 33 13 1 2005.8-2009.2 43 16 27 5 2009.3-2012.1 35 13 22 8 2012.2-2016.5 52 27 25 8 2016.6-2019.6 37 20 17 6 37 19 18 6 数据来源：wind，东 方证券 研究所 1.2 3%10 11 10 1GW 550 5100 16 17%Sn60Pb40 17%GW 88-94 CPIA 2022-2023 2023-2025 290/320/355GW GW 91 2023-2025 2.6/2.9/3.2 12 2022-2025 2.1/2.6/2.9/3.2 wind CPIA PCB 2023 2 0.7 2021 350g EVTank 2023 1 2025 2542 22-25 CAGR 33%22-25 3.3/3.5/3.9/4.3 2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 8268 8351 8685 9293 9758 YOY-1.0%4.0%7.0%5.0%7.9%13.0%16.6%20.6%26.1%650 1082 1439 1913 2542(kg 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 7619 7269 7246 7381 7216 kg 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 SMM Wind ITA EVTank Canalys 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 11 1.3 PVC 66%PVC ITA PVC 66%9%8%7%6%PVC 2023 13 2021 14 2021 PVC ITA PVC 66%9%8%7%6%4%,31%,17%,11%PVC,9%,8%,6%/,5%,5%,4%,2%,2%12 0.004%20 5G 2018 2 16 35(2016 2020)24 USGS 2022 460 2022 14.8 2022 10.8/7.6/22.6 15 16 22 USGS USGS USGS 2022 80/72/70/57/43/42/40 87.4%2021 8 40%-051015202530354045020040060080010001200199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022E:020406080100120140160180 13 17 18(2022)USGS USGS()92%USGS 2022 31 30()92%19 2013-2022 20 2022 USGS USGS 50%22%ITA 2022 2022 2022 38.04 0.3%2019 50%22%ITA 2021 TOP10 22.85 60%2022 TOP10 21.87 4.3%57%2022 TOP10 4 2015 15.6%17.3%15.1%12.3%9.3%9.1%8.7%2.8%2.8%0.2%6.7%05101520253035 31%24%10%9%6%6%6%8%14 21 15 22 2019 wind ITA wind 3 TOP10(:)Order 2021 2022 YoY(%1()82,000 77,100-6.0%2()31800 32,700 2.8%3()17,000 20,600 21.2%4()26,500 19,800-25.3%5()16,400 18,800 14.6%6()9,200 10,900 18.5%7()11,600 10,800-6.9%8()12,100 10,300-14.9%9()12,100 9,500-21.5%10()9,800 8,200-16.3%228,500 218,700-4.3%ITA 2.1 USGS 2022 72 16%7.6 2021 10 80%16%12%70%2022 3 1993 2022 9.5 31-20%-10%0%10%20%30%303234363840:(yoy yoy 49%22%6%3%5%15%15 2015 9 23 2010-2022 24 USGS 2019-2021 63.1%/63.2%/47.3%2021 68.02 2018-2021 3.5 4.5 4.3 3.5 38.6%53.2%51.4%38.5%2021+/19.07/15.30/281.74/22.76/9.39 2019-2022H1 7917 8152 6547 1680 2019-2021 9.4%9.7%7.2%2021-2022H1 7500 2016 2,500/2,500/4350/41%2023 2 7500 2019 2 23 2020 7 2021 2 3 2021 5 2 2021 8 21 2021 2022 20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%02468101214 28.99%17.02%15.96%13.03%13.03%11.97%16 25(26 wind wind 27 28 wind wind 2021 18.43 13.28 2021 14.71 79.9%7.61 57.3%95 0%20%40%60%010000200003000040000500002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%02000400060008000100002019 2020 2021 22H1 0100020003000400050002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 17 29 2017-2022 30 2010-2022 wind wind 31 2021 32 2022 wind wind 2.2 2.2.1 80 50 100 150 2021 5.25 20 19.4%ITA 2020 0510152025051015202530352017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 05000100001500020000250003000035000:(,80%,7%,5%,5%,4%76%12%12%18 33 34 35 2020 ITA 95%2022 2 14 4537 129 4737.01Km2 2021 91.9 30 2.0 2017 80%28.0 2022 1-9 1.45 19%024681012:19 36 95%37 2014-2022 9 2022 10 2024 ITC 2021 24.0 7.5 31%5%95%38 2014-2021 39 ITC ITC 2.2.2 22 95 USGS 2022 70 15%23 2011 95 0500001000001500002000002500003000003500002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 020000400006000080000100000 0510152025302014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0510152012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20 2017 1.5 2 2021 10 SMM 2012 2015 10 5 2017 1.5 2 3 3 2013-2018 1.1 5.46 2018 2022 3.10 2018 43%ITA 2022 8000 22 40 41 2013-2022 ITA USGS 42 2016 wind 0%5%10%15%20%0123456 051015202530354045502008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:21 2.2.3 20 Pitinga SanRafael Huanuni Colquiri 2020 3-8 2021-2022 2023 2023 1 12 San Rafael 43 wind USGS 2022 2.90 San Rafael Minsur 2022 2.82 9%97%San Rafael Puno 1996 1999 2019 2022 2.29 2.22%2019 B2 1.05%2022 B2 5284 2022 San Rafael 2.82 9%2022 10580/15.8%Q4 11113/13%San Rafael 2023 1 2019 5 SanRafael 2020 2019 Q2 36 2022 1 10 Minsur 2023 1 Minsur San Rafael Minsur-1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 22 44 San Rafael 45 San Rafael Minsur Minsur 2022 1.80 Pitinga Minsur 2022 6934 38.5%Massangana 23Q2 Pitinga Amazonas 2020 58.57 36.01 0.156%100.41 0.198%13.51 0.027%2021 6934 12.78%0.195%2020 46 Pitinga Minsur Massangana Rondnia Massangana 23Q2 2022 6 Auxico Resources Massangana Ariquemes CEMAL Cooperativa Estanifera de Mineradores da Amazonia Legal 50 25 2018 3000 0.2%2022 6 CEMAL 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%0500010000150002000025000300002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022San Rafael B2 50709011013015017070008000900010000110002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/0.19%0.19%0.20%0.20%0.21%0.21%0.22%0100020003000400050006000700080002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021Pitinga 23 6,000 Cuex Metal AG 3,600 Huanuni Colquiri Corporacion Minera de Bolivia Huanuni Colquiri 1994 1.6 9.0%1.5-2 2021 6.4%2.3 2021 10 SMM 2015-2018 58%15%15%3%2%3%1%SMM ITA 2023-2025 3.70 2023 2.58 2023 2023 4430 47 48 SMM SMM 4 2023-2024/2023 Auxico Resources Massangana 3600 2023 2700 Tungsten West Hemerdon 500 2023 350 Alphamin Mpama South 7200 2023 12 600 AVA Manono 3000 2023 300 01002003004005006007002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Drill Holes with Signficant Intervals other Drill Holes 58%15%15%3%3%2%1%3%24 Kasbah Achmmach 4500 2023 Syrymbet Syrymbet 6500 2023 25 Afri Tinming UIS 480(2022 9 2023 2026 9000/480 Strategic Minerals Redmoor 400 2024 Tinka Resources Ayswilca 2000 2024 Europena Metals Cinovec 1000 2024 Venture Minerals Mount Lindsay 3000 3000 2024 Australian Tin Resources Ardlethan Tallings 1500 2024 Anglo Saxony Mining Tellerhauser 3300 2025 36980-4430 SMM 2.3.1 2018 1 USGS 2022 2.0 Bisie 12000 3.9%60%Bisie Mpama North 12,000 4%Mpama South 7200/Bisie Alphamin Resources 84.14%Mpama North Mpama South Mpama North Mpama North 12,000 4%2022 12,493 14%Mpama South 2022 Mpama South 2023 1 1 2023 12 7200/2024 Alphamin 2 25 49 Bisie 50 Bisie Alphamin Resources Alphamin Resources Manono Manono 188 1919 1982 18.5 1982 2017 AVZ Manono Manono Li2O 668.43 1.62%31.44 0.076%2021 4 2023 2 2023 2021 2000 3000 5 Manono Li2O Li2O Sn%)Sn 131.7 1.630 214.00 0.099%13.03 280.6 1.618 454.43 0.066%18.41 412.3 1.615 668.43 0.076%31.44 数据来源：AVZ 公司公 告，东 方证券 研究所 2 Uis Uis 2018 11 Afri Tin 50 720 300 5000 2019 11 2020 11 60 2022 10 720 1200 67%2022 12 2023 2 Uis 361 120 100 1200 2022 9 7 2022 10 13 5 9-11 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%020004000600080001000012000140002019 2020 2021 2022 0.001.002.003.004.005.0001000002000003000004000002017 6 2019 12 2022 6(Sn)(,Sn)(%,)26 51 Uis Andrada 2.3.2 Metals X Ltd Mount Lindsay Ardlethan Tallings USGS 2022 57 t Federal-Bassett 2021 8300 Metals X Ltd 2022 12 31 Metals X Ltd 8404 2021 1.46%52 53 Metals X Ltd 1 Mount Lindsay Mount Lindsay 80000 320 Venture Mount Lindsay 80000 Venture Renison Bell 00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.18050100150200250300350400 ton%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%01000200030004000500060007000800090002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(27 Venture 2024 8 6 2012 10 17 Lower Cut(Tin equiv)Category Tonnes Tin Equiv.Grade Tin Grade Tungsten Grade(WO)Mass Recovery of Magnetic Iron(Fe)Grade Copper Grade Contained Tin Metal(tonnes)Contained WO(mtu)0.20%Measured 8.1Mt 0.6%0.2%0.1%17%0.1%18000 1100000 Indicated 17Mt 0.4%0.2%0.1%15%0.1%32000 1200000 Inferred 20Mt 0.4%0.2%0.1%17%0.1%32000 960000 TOTAL 45Mt 0.4%0.2%0.1%17%0.1%81000 3200000 0.45%Measured 4.3Mt 0.8%0.3%0.2%18%0.1%12000 980000 Indicated 5.2Mt 0.7%0.3%0.2%15%0.1%14000 810000 Inferred 3.9Mt 0.6%0.3%0.1%9%0.1%12000 520000 TOTAL 13Mt 0.7%0.3%0.2%14%0.1%38000 2300000 0.70%Measured 2.2Mt 1.1%0.3%0.3%18%0.1%8000 750000 Indicated 1.9Mt 1.0%0.4%0.3%11%0.1%7000 480000 Inferred 0.6Mt 1.0%0.5%0.3%3%0.1%3000 150000 TOTAL 4.7Mt 1.1%0.4%0.3%13%0.1%18000 1400000 1.00%Measured 1.0Mt 1.5%0.5%0.5%19%0.1%5000 450000 Indicated 0.7Mt 1.3%0.5%0.3%10%0.1%4000 220000 Inferred 0.2Mt 1.4%0.7%0.3%1%0.1%2000 70000 TOTAL 1.9Mt 1.4%0.5%0.4%14%0.1%10000 750000 数据来源：Venture 矿业 公司 公告，东 方证券研 究所 2 Ardlethan Ardlethan 6.65 2.16 0.20%ATR Ardlethan 2024 Ardlethan Ardlethan 5 400(ATR)EOE Ardlethan 1912 1965 1986 Aberfoyle Resources NL 3000 Aberfoyle 900 0.46%2100 Aberfoyle 0.20%2020 ATR Ardlethan 1986 ATR ATR DA 150 ATR ATR 60 150 28 Ardlethan 21 Aberfoyle 2020 ATR Tomra 7 Australian Tin Resources Ardlethan%10.7 0.20%21600 21.3 0.09%20200 5.5 0.45%24700 37.5-66500 ATR 29 2022 3 2023 2023 2023 Massangana Hemerdon 23-25 39.5/41.0/40.8 3.95%/3.78%/-0.65%2023 5%2023 23Q2 23-25 39.4/41.3/42.7 2.93%/4.77%/3.38%23-25 0.12/-0.27/-1.93 8 2021-2025 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 9.10 9.50 9.50 8.98 8.45 7.10 7.70 7.70 7.40 7.10 2.80 3.10 3.30 3.15 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.60 2.90 2.90 1.60 2.00 2.09 3.10 3.10 2.20 1.80 2.07 2.16 2.16 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.80 0.83 0.84 0.84 1.04 1.24 1.57 1.36 1.73 2.30 2.86 30.00 31.00 31.63 32.83 32.61 7.94 7.04 7.91 8.21 8.15 37.94 38.04 39.54 41.04 40.77 yoy 11.79%0.26%3.95%3.78%-0.65%19.1 19.2 20.2 21.7 22.7 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 4.7 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 30 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 38.95 38.30 39.42 41.30 42.70 yoy 7.63%-1.67%2.93%4.77%3.38%-1.01-0.26 0.12-0.27-1.93 LME 22000-25000/90 2022 C1 90 23171/2020 36.31%90 25581/2020 25.12%ITA 2027 90 33800/2022 32.13%2030 68547/2022 1.5 54 90/55 ITA 2027(/)2016 2025 2027 ITA Alphamin Resources ITA Alphamin Resources 9 2010-2030/NBP Cash Costs 2010 2020 2022 2030E Median 7201 10728 11418 16625 4th Quartile 13353 16761 18534 23964 90th Percentile 19805 19539 23171 36290 NBP Full Costs 2010 2020 2022 2030 Median 10189 14338 15562 22158 4th Quartile 17305 19783 22634 31408 90th Percentile 23165 23500 25581 53974 NBP Cash Costs(Real 2022)2010 2020 2022 2030 Median 5329 9334 11418 21114 4th Quartile 9881 14582 18534 30434 90th Percentile 14655 16999 23171 46089 NBP Full Costs(Real 2022)2010 2020 2022 2030 Median 7540 12474 15562 28141 4th Quartile 12806 17211 22634 39888 90th Percentile 17142 20445 25581 68547 US inflation index 0.74 0.87 1.00 1.27 0200004000060000800002010 2016 2020 2022 2025E 2027E 2030E 90 90:LME:31 ITA Alphamin Resources(000960)(600301)(000426)32 1%33 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告