20240131_银河证券_零售&化妆品行业：关注年初的营销管理布局维持推荐优质国产化妆品品牌商_27页.pdf

&1 2 2023 471495.20 7.20%4141.7 5.10%2023 3 54 2022 2023Q3 51.65 85.70%618 2023 618(%)PE(TTM)()600315.SH-8.64%24 130.85 603605.SH-12.80%32 343.91 300740.SZ-5.16%33 61.61 300957.SZ-9.87%23 260.26 Wind zhenweixuan_ S0130520050002 2024.01.31 Wind 2024.01.31 table_re ort Wind&_&_&_&_&_-30.00%-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%300 table_research&2024 01 31 /&2.4.4.5.6.8.8.11 2023Q3.12.18.19.19.20.21.21.23.24 0YCXuNqNsRmNtNnOtOrOrQ9PbP6MoMqQpNmQlOmMpNlOpPqRbRoOxPMYqMoPNZqNqP/&3 GB/T4754-2017 A 30 5 2 13 10 33 4911.T OR.PA LVMH MC.PA 090430.KS 0.29%0.36%1 Wind 2 Wind 3 Wind 2024/01/26 2022FY 4 Wind 2024/01/26 2022FY 050000100000150000200000250000300000 00.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.008 7,622.92 2,573.99 288.16 116.99-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2024.01.26 2022-20 40 60 80 100 120-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500总市值（2024.01.26 水平）2022 年营收合计/&4 2022 5318.13 2023 5791.67 2014-2022 7.50%2022 6.38%/0.66%/8.14%/4.16%GDP 2008 2009 3.14%2010 2011 2016 2010-2011 2.57%2011-2016 2.53%-2.58%2016 2020 4.32%2021 4.05%2022 4.50%0.2%12 4 618 2023 471495.20 7.20%4141.7 5.10%4 5 24.30%/11.70%6 4.80%7 8 9.70%9 10 1.60%/1.10%11 3.80%/&5 12 9.70%33.69%8.3%30.06 7.84%54%64%5 2001-2023 GDP Wind 6()Wind 7 Euromonitor 8 Euromonitor-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%化妆品零售额累计同比城镇居民人均可支配收入同比增速 GDP 现价同比增速金融危机前，经济上行，化妆品配置较高经济调整，化妆品配置上升；疫情冲击，化妆品增势不减；金融危机后，经济增速骤降后出现短暂反弹，化妆品消费配置迅速降低经济整体下行，化妆品配置处于低位153.7 175.5 206.9 261.6 335.1 386.6 488.3 596.5 740.0 889.4 1102.9 1340.1 1624.9 1824.7 2049.4 2221.9 2513.7 2619.0 2992.2 3400.2 4026.0 3936.0 4141.7 2.69 2.96 3.14 2.57 2.58 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.00500100015002000250030003500400045002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023化妆品零售额化妆品零售额占剔除石油、汽车的总商品零售额（%）金融危机前，经济上行，化妆品占比上升危机反应阶段，化妆品占比仍在上升危机反应后期，化妆品占比迅速下降经济整体下行，化妆品占比处于低位经济调整，化妆品占比迅速上升疫情冲击无碍化妆品高景气0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%/&6 9 2022 Euromonitor 10 2022 Euromonitor 11 2012-2022 Euromonitor 12 2012-2022 Euromonitor 2022 51.95%11.95%9.07%10.44%5.81%2023 10.58%6.13%2022 2022 15.42%7.60%6.19%2023 10.30%7.54%24.39%409.91464.63531.88.14%4.14%2.03%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%05001000150020002500300035004000 2023E 2014-2022E 53,908.12125429.1283329.34.08%2.88%3.65%0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%5%0.0050,000.00100,000.00150,000.00200,000.00250,000.00300,000.00 2022 2014-2022 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 LVMH LG /&7 13 2022 Euromonitor 14 2009-2023E Euromonitor 2022 2762.67 5.90%2015-2022 8.02%2023 2982.82 7.97%80 90 80 90 2022 555.30 15.42%2015-2022 11.88%2023 612.51 10.30%15 2022 Euromonitor 16 2022 Euromonitor,51.95%,10.44%,9.07%,4.69%,11.95%,5.81%,2.49%,3.62%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E,81.62%,7.01%,2.09%,1.97%,14.17%,45.52%,29.41%,0.66%,1.94%/&8 17 2007-2023E Euromonitor 18 2007-2023E Euromonitor 1907 1996 1837 1988 13.4%9.3%1.9%1.8%1.5%1.4%1.1%0.9%0.8%0.5%0.4%19 2022 10 Euromonitor-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%0.00500.001000.001500.002000.002500.003000.003500.002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 13.49.35.33.22.92.32 1.9 1.81.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.31.1 1 1 1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.40246810121416/&9 16.8%7.6%2.21 3.5%4.80 27.4%LVMH 10.2%2.69 4.2%6.52 5.7%5.6%5.8%5.7%6 2-2 9 5 5.8%5.7%3.6%3.3%1.7%5 20.1%1 20 2022%Euromonitor 21 2022%Euromonitor 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 LG LVMH 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 LG LVMH/&10 22 2022%Euromonitor 23 2022%Euromonitor 2013-2022-3.94.3pct+1.0pct+0.3%+0.7%-3.4pct+3.3pct/+2.6pct+1.7pct/+0.4pct/+1.2pct/+2.3pct+1.2pct,+2.3pct+0.35.7pct 4.3pct 20 1.1pct 0 1 2 3 4 5 6CPB SK-II Olay 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 CPB /&11 24 2013-2022 20 Euromonitor 25 2013-2022 20+Euromonitor 26 2013-2022 20 Euromonitor 1.2022 55.9 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 LVMH LG 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Olay SK-II CPB0.02.04.06.08.010.012.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CPB /&12 27 2022 Euromonitor 28 2016-2023 Wind 2.3.30 2023Q3 1.2023 2023Q3 639.21 4.61%51.65 85.70%/0501001502002503003504004500.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.00450.00500.002016-012016-032016-052016-072016-092016-112017-012017-032017-052017-072017-092017-112018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09/&13 29 Wind 30 Wind Q3 2023 2023 639.21 4.60%85.70%20%1 34.31 18.51%5.08 12.53%2 52.49 32.47%7.46 50.60%7.26 52.18%30%媞 OR 50%媞 OR 9 3 15.36 34.34%2023 PL 7.71%35%31.6%28.78%30%70.84%2.87 4 50.91 4.91%2.98 19.07%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100200300400500600700800900-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01020304050607080 /&14 5 33.77 1.04%1.95 77.91%2+2+n L OCCITANE 1 30 2024 2023 12 31 8.43 65.59 24.6%Sol de Janeiro ELEMIS 2024 67.1%6.7%21.8%2024 45.4%28.2%Sol de Janeiro ELEMIS L OCCITANE en Provence 2023 12 31 11 10.10 7%6%5%3%37%2023 6.9%199 182.69 83%17%23%21%10%46%2024 2023 10-12 214 1533.99 3%34.68 245.59 SK-II 34 1 9 2 6 3 LVMH 2023 2023 12 31 LVMH 862 6712.83 9%69%228 1775.57 7%11%DFS LVMH 20%25%76%2.2023 2022 1017.87 2023Q3 1074.58 2022 31.22%2023Q3 27.95%2007-2013 29.23%43.94%/&15 2013-2020 2020 30%2013 7-8 2013-2016 6-7 2017-2022 7-8 31%Wind 32%Wind 3.1.10 2014 2018 2022 1.11 1 2023 Q3 1.05 33%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%020040060080010001200 01234567890%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3/&16 Wind 4.2023 ROE ROE 2007-2019 3.26%11.93%2020 ROE 5.37%6.29%100%1.50 0.85 7%ROE 2023 Q3 51.65 85.70%ROE 34 ROE Wind 35 ROE Wind 2022-2023 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023-1%1%3%5%7%9%11%13%15%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3ROE0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0 /&17 5.2023 1 300740.SZ 2024/1/18 2023 2.8-3.2 123%-156%2.6-3.0 169%-210%600233.SH 2024/1/23 2023 2.6-2.9 472%-538%1.16-1.46 98%-150%300132.SZ 2024/1/25 2023 0.5-0.63 91.51%-93.27%0.48-0.61 91.96%-93.68%19-21 31.44%-34.87%1 2 1 2 300856.SZ 2024/1/15 2023 7.2-7.6 85.50%-95.80%7.03-7.43 85.80%-96.38%603983.SH 2024/1/22 2023 3-3.3 72%89%2.2-2.5 62%84%30%100%PL 100%603193.SH 2024/1/25 2023 2.15-2.35 34.34%-46.83%2.07-2.27 34.10%-47.05%002803.SZ 2024/1/24 2023 3.31-3.68 80%-100%3.02-3.39 78.46%-100.19%3%301001.SZ 2024/1/26 2023 500-750 2022 960.34 2023 180-270 2023 3.65-3.85 /&18 002315.SZ 2024/1/26 21.51%-28.16%3.53-3.73 26.53%-33.70%1,990 002127.SZ 2024/1/26 2023 2022 2.92 2023 0.9-1.2 0.5-0.8 1 2022 2 300592.SZ 2024/1/19 2023 3.2-3.55 47.99%-64.18%2.88-3.23 45.06%-62.69%1+2 AIGC 2023 2 1.1 2 2.3.3 4 /&19 30 4.2023 2024.01.26-18.28%-21.18%-6.62%2023 2 2023 1 2 3 4 618 618 7 8 9 10 11 9 12 2024 1 PS 2023 7 2024 1 26 PE PS 0.10%PE TTM PS 36 2023%Wind 37 Wind-30.00%-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%3.003.504.004.505.005.506.006.507.007.500.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00PE PE PS PS/&20 2017 3 30 2024 1 26 0.56%0.32%38 Wind 39 Wind A 2020 0.12%2023Q3 30 639.21 4.61%0.12%0.13%2022 0.09%2024.01.26 0.39%1.57 1/PE 1/PE 10 0.73%-1.36%-0.92%2023 2007 2015 Beta A beta 1 beta beta 1 0.94 2016 2023.11.30 beta 0.76 0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%05101520253035化妆品行业上市公司数量占比全行业数量00.20.40.60.811.20.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%+1 SD-1 SD/&21 40 41 42%Wind 43%Wind 44%Wind 45 beta%Wind A 600315.SH 603605.SH 300740.SZ 603983.SH0.00%0.02%0.04%0.06%0.08%0.10%0.12%0.14%0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.00900.00 0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.00 00.20.40.60.811.2-0.20%0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%+1 SD-1 SD00.20.40.60.811.20.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00+1 SD-1 SD-8.00%-7.00%-6.00%-5.00%-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%+1 SD-1 SD0.400.600.801.001.201.401.60比例中位数+1 SD-1 SD Wind Wind /&22 301371.SZ 688363.SH 300957.SZ 603193.SH 603630.SH 002919.SZ 603059.SH 600249.SH 001328.SZ 002094.SZ 300856.SZ 300132.SZ 002637.SZ 001218.SZ 600223.SH 300955.SZ 300792.SZ 605136.SH 003010.SZ 301001.SZ 301110.SZ 002315.SZ 300592.SZ 002127.SZ 02367.HK 2145.HK 0157.HK 6601.HK 6993.HK 2035(2020-2025)2025 2000 100 3 5 25%2025 1 15 2023Q3 51.65 85.70%54 2022 618 618 GMV 119%111%1 n TOP1 3.0 55 TOP7 2023 10 31 20:00-24:00 7 11 TOP10 4 TOP1 2023 10 31 20:00-24:00 Top2/&23 2023 10 31 100%2023 10 1-10 31 11 2023 1745%26 TOP13 3 3 1+15 1 1 71,108.78 2 2.12 52.0006%2016+3 11 8/4 12 4 Lactobio Lactobio 600315.SH 603605.SH 300740.SZ 300957.SZ 3 2024%600315.SH 25%-8.64-8.64 /&24 603605.SH 25%-12.80-12.80 300740.SZ+25%-5.16-5.16 300957.SZ 25%-9.87-9.87 Wind 46 2023 Wind-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%300 /&25 1.3 2.3 3.3 4.3 5 2001-2022 GDP.5 6().5 7.5 8.5 9 2022.6 10 2022.6 11 2012-2022.6 12 2012-2022.6 13 2022.7 14 2009-2023E.7 15 2022.7 16 2022.7 17 2007-2023E.8 18 2007-2023E.8 19 2022 10.8 20 2022%.9 21 2022%.9 22 2022%.10 23 2022%.10 24 2013-2022 20.11 25 2013-2022 20+.11 26 2013-2022 20.11 27 2022.12 28 2016-2023.12 29.13 30.13 31%.15 32%.15 33%.15 34 ROE.16 35 ROE.16 36 2023%.19 37.19 38.20 39.20 40.21 /&26 41.21 42%.21 43%.21 44%.21 45 beta%.21 46 2023.24 1.17 2.18 3.23 /&27 2018 5 6 12 A 300 50 10%-5%10%5%20%5%20%-5%5%5%嫚