20240130_华创证券_食品饮料行业2023年报前瞻：Q4延续惯性龙头韧性仍足_21页.pdf

2009 1210 2024 01 30 2023 Q4 Q4 23 Q4 Q4 Q4/17%/13%Q4/10%/10%Q4/20%/23%Q4/20%/20%Q4/Q4/23%/20%Q4/10%/45%/10%Q4 30%/20%/34%Q4 Q4/10%/5%Q4/50%+Q4 23Q4 22 Q4 Q4 Q4/-3%/+2%/+5%/-75%+2%/Q4/+1%/-35%30bp+8%/-50%+10%/+30%-7%/-20%Q4/+40%/+43%-3%/-16%+27%/+35%+30%/+65%+2%/-10%+18%/+8%+50%/+125%-5%/Q4/+5%/+6%-8%/+5%/+6%+0%/-30%+5%/+17%/+32%+10%/+13%Q4/+3%/+0%+25%/+50%+13%/Q4 5 23 3.23-3.65 Q4/+6%/-30%/price-in S0360520070001 S0360521050001 S0360520090001 S0360521080003 S0360522090005 021-20572598 S0360518040001%()127 0.02()49,671.28 5.93()47,725.19 7.36%1M 6M 12M-3.2%-17.1%-23.1%-3.4%-2.4%-2.8%B 2024-01-27-26%-17%-8%1%23/01 23/04 23/06 23/09 23/11 24/012023-01-302024-01-26 300 2023 2009 1210 2 XVCXzQnQtQpOpRtQmRsNoP7NaO8OnPmMsQnReRoOnMeRmPmN8OpPyRvPrQxOxNmNzR 2023 2009 1210 Q4.5.8.15.16 2023 2009 1210 4 1.5 2 Q4.8 3 23Q4 PMI.8 4 23 Q4.8 5 23.10 6 SW PE-band.17 7 SW PB-band.17 8.17 2023 2009 1210 5 Q4 Q4 23 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 24 24 24 Q1 23 Q4 15%+1:YoY:YoY 23Q1Q3 23Q4E 23E 23Q1Q3 23Q4E 23E 23Q1Q3 23Q4E 23E 23Q1Q3 23Q4E 23E 1,053.2 441.9 1,495.0 17%17%17%528.8 206.2 735.0 19%13%17%625.4 200.1 825.4 12%10%12%228.3 73.7 302.0 14%10%13%219.4 91.2 310.6 25%20%24%105.7 26.4 132.1 29%23%27%267.4 48.8 316.3 21%20%21%94.3 11.9 106.2 33%20%31%302.8 36.2 339.1 14%0%13%102.0 3.1 105.1 12%0%12%159.5 43.4 203.0 25.0%10%21%38.1 7.5 45.7 45%45%45%83.7 16.9 100.5 28%23%27%26.4 5.1 31.4 27%20%26%52.5 15.8 68.3 14%10%13%13.0 5.1 18.0 8%5%7%35.9 13.6 49.5-5%51%6%10.2 2.5 12.7-3%55%4%44.5 15.1 59.6 18%10%16%13.5 3.8 17.3 12%10%12%-70.6-20%-16.0-34%10.7 4.8 15.6 32%30%31%-0.3 0.1-0.2-74%-2023 23 Q4 2023 23/17.2%/17.2%Q4/17.0%/12.6%Q4 15.2%200 Q4 41.4%2023 2009 1210 6 1935 24 15%+Q4 1 920 1618 Q4/10%/10%24 23 48%1618 Q4 10 Q4 11.5 870 60 Q4/20%/23%24 20%Q4 1 Q4 20%24 700 Q1 20%+Q4 Q4 6+2-3 Q4 Q4 23 Q4 23%V 5/8 16 20 Q4/10%/45%12 Q4 10%2023 2009 1210 7 15/20%/34%Q4 Q4 12 Q4/10%/5%Q4 23/6%/4%Q4/51%/55%60%Q4 23 20%12 Q4 30%2023 2009 1210 8 23Q4 22 Q4 2 Q4 3 23Q4 PMI wind wind 4 23 Q4 Wind Q4 Q4-9.6%-30-20-1001020304050:40424446485052545658602021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-11:PMI:PMI 2023 2009 1210 9 Q3 10 8-10 Q4 Q4 H2 Q4 Q4 10.5%Q4 1)Q4 10-12-3.8%/+4.3%/+4.0%Q3 4.1%Q4 30%+9 Q4 PET 2)Q4-3%-16%Q4+27%+35%Q4+30%+65%Q4 50%125%Q4 Q4/18%/7.7%Q4+Q4/+1.5%/-10%1)Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 B C Q4/+17.1%/+32.0%2)B KA B B B B 22Q4 23Q4 2023 2009 1210 10 3)Q4 Q4 0.03-0.06 Q4 23 Q4/+6%/-30%5 23 子版块 证券简称 收入:亿元 收入:YoY 业绩:亿元 业绩:YoY 23Q1-3 23Q4E 23E 23Q1-3 23Q4E 23E 23Q1-3 23Q4E 23E 23Q1-3 23Q4E 23E 低度酒 青岛啤酒 309.8 29.7 339.5 6.4%-3%6%49.1-5.3 43.8 15.0%亏损 18%重庆啤酒 130.3 19.5 149.8 6.9%5%7%13.4 0.2 13.6 13.7%-75%8%燕京啤酒 124.2 19.2 143.3 9.7%2%9%9.6-3.1 6.5 42.2%亏损 83%百威亚太 55.6 11.9 67.5 6.2%2%4%8.8 0.2 9.0-1.7%转正-2%乳肉制品 伊利股份 974.0 296.0 1,270.1 3.8%1%3%93.8 8.9 102.7 16.4%-35%9%天润乳业 20.8 6.0 26.9 12.5%8%11%1.4 0.2 1.6-7.4%-50%-17%新乳业 81.9 27.8 109.7 9.5%10%10%3.8 0.7 4.5 22.8%30%24%双汇发展 463.5 168.2 631.7 3.8%-7%1%43.3 12.4 55.7 6.4%-20%-1%休闲及功能食饮 东鹏饮料 86.4 26.1 112.5 30.0%40%32%16.6 3.9 20.5 42.0%43%42%洽洽食品 44.8 24.2 69.0 2.2%-3%0%5.1 2.9 8.0-19.3%-16%-18%盐津铺子 30.0 11.7 41.8 52.5%27%44%4.0 1.1 5.1 81.1%35%68%甘源食品 13.1 6.3 19.4 35.6%30%34%2.1 1.1 3.3 139.2%65%107%仙乐健康 25.0 10.8 35.8 40.0%50%43%1.9 0.8 2.7 5.1%125%25%汤臣倍健 77.8 16.2 94.0 26.3%-5%20%19.0-1.3 17.7 28.3%亏损 28%安琪酵母 96.5 45.6 142.1 7.5%18%11%9.1 4.6 13.7 1.6%8%4%桃李面包 50.7 16.8 67.5 0.8%2%1%4.6 1.4 5.9-6.2%-10%-7%调味品 海天味业 186.5 68.4 254.9-2.3%5%0%43.3 16.2 59.5-7.3%6%-4%中炬高新 39.5 12.7 52.3-0.1%-8%-2%-12.7 30.8 18.0-403.9%转正 转正 涪陵榨菜 19.5 5.0 24.5-4.6%0%-4%6.6 1.4 8.0-5.3%-30%-11%恒顺醋业 16.4 4.8 21.2-2.6%5%-1%1.4 0.3 1.6-10.5%转正 18%千禾味业 23.3 9.3 32.6 50.0%5%34%3.9 1.7 5.5 106.6%6%61%天味食品 22.3 9.2 31.5 17.0%17%17%3.2 1.3 4.5 31.2%32%31%宝立食品 17.6 6.2 23.8 19.2%10%17%2.4 0.7 3.1 57.0%13%44%速冻 安井食品 102.7 41.5 144.2 6.0%3%18%11.2 4.1 15.3 62.7%0%39%千味央厨 13.3 5.7 19.0 28.9%25%28%0.9 0.5 1.4 35.3%50%40%立高食品 25.8 9.7 35.5 25.9%13%22%1.6-0.6 1.0 57.7%亏损-30%连锁 巴比食品 11.9 4.5 16.4 7.8%6%7%1.5 0.6 2.2 15.5%-30%-3%wind 1 2 Q1-3 Q4 3 H2 22H2 23 H2 22H2 2023 2009 1210 11-2.94 15%52 20 1-2kw Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 23Q4-3%-5.3-5.6 5.5%18%Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 23Q4+5%-75%+6.7%+8%Q4 12 Q4 U8 40%40%55 Q4-3.81-2.71-3.2 Q4 23Q4+2%-3.1-3.2+8.6%+83%Q4 Q4 Q4+2%Q4 Q4 Q4 30bp 22Q4 Q4+1%-35%23H2 OPM 23H2 Q4 23H2 23H2 OPM 50bp Q4 DTC Q4 Q3 2023 2009 1210 12 20%+2-3pct Q4 23Q4+10%+30%23Q4 10%90%23Q4+8%-50%Q4 Q4 Q4 300 23Q4-7%-20%Q4 23/30%33%/38%43%/35%40%Q4/30%44%/21%47%/12%36%10 11 23 23Q4 22Q4 22Q4 142.5%Q4 23Q4+40%43%H2 80%PET 24 1 23Q4 Q4 10%23Q4-3%-16%2023Q4 11.012.0 18.6%29.4%1.01.1 25.7%37.7%0.91.0 13.5%25.5%30%/3kw+2.2kw 23Q4+27%+35%23Q4 23Q4 2023 2009 1210 13 0.811.21 17.57%75.72%0.701.10-2.24%+53.51%Q4 30%1300 Q4 23Q4+30%+65%23Q4(Q3 15%Q4 Q4 24Q1 Q4 Q1-Q3 4-5pcts BF 7 Q3 23Q4 50%125%43%25%Q4 2023 15.94-18.71 15%35%14.24-17.21 3.5%25.1%Q4-3.07-0.3-0.96-3.75-0.77-0.38 23Q4 23Q4 23Q4-5%-1.3+20%+28%Q4 20%+Q4 Q4 Q4/18%/7.7%Q4+Q4 Q4 Q4/+1.5%/-10%Q4 10-11 12 2 Q4 Q4/+5%/+6%Q4 Q4 10-11 12 Q4 2023 2009 1210 14 23Q4 Q4-8%Q4 12 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4/+0/-30 22Q4 23Q4 Q4 Q4+5%Q4 2023 23 5.09-5.78 48%-68%Q4 1.22-1.91-22.2%+21.9%Q4 Q4/+5%/+6%2023 23 31.49+17.02%4.49+31.26%Q4 9.16+17.14%1.28+31.96%10 Q4 20 24 Q4 B C B 10-11 12 22 C Q4/+10/+13 3.1 2.3 Q4 23Q4 10-11 12 23 Q4/+3%/+0%Q4 23 34.8-36.0 19.6 23.7 0.8-1.05 26.7 44.4 23Q4 Q4 Q4 2023 2009 1210 15 900w B B B Q4 30-40%B Q4 20%19 Q4/+25%/+50%23 Q4 Q4 Q4 5 Q4 23 3.23-3.65+45.60-64.53%2.70-3.05+48.88-68.18%22 23Q4 Q4 Q4 0.03-0.06 Q4 Q4 Q4 23 22 23Q4 0.55+20 Q4/+6%/-30%/price-in 2023 2009 1210 16 2023 2009 1210 17 6 SW PE-band 7 SW PB-band Wind Wind 8 EPS/P/E)2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 20,568 1,637.3 49.93 59.83 70.82 82.63 33 27 23 20 5,085 131.0 6.88 7.82 8.86 10.08 19 17 15 13 2,284 155.2 7.04 8.90 11.01 13.26 22 17 14 12 2,530 207.4 6.64 8.71 11.13 14.12 31 24 19 15 1,429 94.8 6.23 7.00 8.26 9.71 15 14 11 10 1,119 211.7 5.95 8.50 11.38 14.44 36 25 19 15 555 44.3 2.00 2.48 3.11 3.90 22 18 14 11 298 89.4 5.06 5.56 6.34 7.88 18 16 14 11 247 50.6 2.49 2.58 3.19 3.84 20 20 16 13 255 7.6 0.35 0.47 0.60 0.75 21 16 13 10 247 41.1 2.58 2.88 3.32 3.85 16 14 12 11 108 16.5-0.28-0.05 0.28 0.67-58-338 58 24 1,732 27.2 1.48 1.67 1.92 2.19 18 16 14 12 36 11.3 0.61 0.53 0.71 0.87 18 21 16 13 89 10.3 0.42 0.53 0.69 0.87 25 19 15 12 985 72.2 2.72 3.27 4.01 4.72 27 22 18 15 290 60.0 2.61 2.98 3.53 4.04 23 20 17 15 231 8.2 0.12 0.23 0.32 0.42 66 35 26 19 977 28.2 1.62 1.71 1.84 1.97 17 17 15 14 652 162.9 3.60 5.12 6.84 8.59 45 32 24 19 1,984 35.7 1.11 1.07 1.23 1.41 32 33 29 25 192 24.4-0.75-1.37 1.01 1.24-32-18 24 20 153 13.2 0.78 0.71 0.79 0.88 17 19 17 15 93 8.4 0.12 0.15 0.25 0.30 68 55 34 28 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000收盘价 46.2X 40.6X34.9X 29.2X 23.6X05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000收盘价 8.8X 7.8X6.8X 5.7X 4.7X 2023 2009 1210 18 155 15.0 0.33 0.53 0.63 0.73 45 28 24 21 128 12.1 0.32 0.40 0.49 0.60 38 30 24 20 70 17.5 0.54 0.79 0.83 1.02 32 22 21 17 43 43.0 1.03 1.41 1.78 2.28 42 31 24 19 239 81.5 3.75 5.38 6.15 7.19 22 15 13 11 140 22.1 0.37 0.95 1.62 2.13 60 23 14 10 86 20.8 0.54 1.07 1.25 1.47 39 19 17 14 45 18.0 0.89 0.86 1.05 1.23 20 21 17 15 68 39.9 0.85 1.05 2.25 3.31 47 38 18 12 286 32.9 1.52 1.58 1.78 2.04 22 21 18 16 113 7.1 0.40 0.39 0.45 0.53 18 18 16 13 162 31.9 1.93 1.66 2.23 2.51 17 19 14 13 66 70.7 1.70 3.21 3.85 4.53 42 22 18 16 135 69.0 1.54 2.71 3.44 4.19 45 25 20 16 268 15.7 0.81 1.02 1.21 1.43 19 15 13 11 56 30.6 1.18 1.49 2.14 2.74 26 21 14 11 867 27.0 1.39 1.73 2.18 2.61 19 16 12 10 617 15.8 1.35 1.53 1.77 2.04 12 10 9 8 4,284 38.4 0.76 0.92 1.06 1.21 51 42 36 32 1,428 10.9 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.10 22 21 17 15 Wind 2024 1 26;EPS 2023 2009 1210 19 7 2020 2021-2023 5 2019 2020 2021 5 2020 2020 2022 2022 4 2020 2023 15 2013 2023 2023 2009 1210 20 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2023 2009 1210 21 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%600519 3.97%002946 26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522