20240129_东方证券_电子行业：北交所赋能“专精特新”群星闪耀_36页.pdf

|2021 9 3 2024 1 5 240 202 85%AI AI 1 AI 2 IC 3 AI 4 AI 5 ADAS AI 1 2+IC 3 4 5 6 7 AI MR/2024 01 29 S0860522090002 S0860523080004 AI CES 2024-01-14 2023-12-18 2023-12-18 2 1.5 1.1“”.5 1.2.6 2.7 2.1 AI.7 2.2.10 2.3 AI.12 2.4.14 3.17 3.1.17 3.2+IC.19 3.3.22 3.4.24 3.5.27 3.6“”.29 3.7.32.34 ZXCXxOqNpMpOoQpMmRqPrQ9PcMbRpNqQmOtPfQmMqReRtQpP8OrRyQwMtOrQvPpOnP 3 1 2021-2023.5 2 2024 1 9.5 3.6 4 2024 1 9.6 5 2024 1 9.6 6.7 7.8 8 FP32 EFLOPS.9 9 AI.9 10 AI.10 11 2016-2024E.10 12 2019-2027E.11 13.11 14.12 15 AI.12 16 MR Apple Vision Pro.13 17/MR.13 18 2018-2024E.14 19.15 20.15 21.15 22 HW3 HW4.16 23.16 24.16 25.17 26.18 27 2018-2022.18 28 2018-2022.18 29 2018-2022.19 30 2018-2022.19 31.19 32.20 33.20 34 2018-2022.21 4 35 2018-2022.21 36.21 37.21 38.22 39 2018-2022.23 40 2018-2022.23 41 2018-2023Q3.23 42 2022H1.23 43 2020.24 44.24 45 2018-2022.25 46 2018-2022.25 47 2019-2022H1.25 48 2018-2022.26 49 2019-2025.26 50 2019-2022H1.26 51 2022H1.26 52 2021.27 53.27 54 2018-2022.28 55 2018-2022.28 56 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Crawl,WebText2,Booksl,Books2,Wikipedia ChatGPT 1750 45TB 7740 2600 4TB _ 3.0 1000 1000TB 3 B 4400 1 2000 I0TB 7000+10 200TB 2.2 D 2000 _ _ Omni Objects 3D 190 6000 OpenAI AI AI 1+AI AI cVector cGPT 2+HPC 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%01002003004005006007008009002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E YoY 10 SaaS 10 AI AI()CPU GPU IT Paramon Paratune ParaCloud 2.2 202 4 1 3%(WSTS)AI 2024 13%5884 AI Gartner GPU AI 20%2023 AI 534 21%2024 26%671 2025 AI 1780 2022 11 2016-2024E WSTS-20%0%20%40%01002003004005006007002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E YOY 11 2022 283 2027 685 2022-2027 CAGR 15%12 2019-2027E SEMI 13 1 IC AI CMA CNAS 2 2021 12%TDK-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01002003004005006007008002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E/()12 14 MCU IC ST ROHM IC CMA CNAS TK1000 T0 DIP SOP 2.3 AI AI P C AI AI AI AI Gemini Nano 3.2B Pixel 8 Pro Pixel AI Record Gboard AI Phi-2-2.7B 15 AI MR AI MR IT MR MR MR 2024 13 BOM 50%Workrooms Meta Quest 2D 16 MR Apple Vision Pro 1 3C 20 74 7 2 60 7 OPPO VIVO TCL 3 20%33 32 17/MR(837212)(873223)3C 3C(832876)ODM IoT(871857)20%14 2.4 2022 645 516 2023 706 660 2023 10 25 27 GGII 2026 4%20 2030 200 LLM VLM 18 2018-2024E 1 2017-2020 2 3 EMS 0%10%20%30%01002003004005006007002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E YOY 15 19 20 21(430418)(873593)(430425)14 HW1.0 FSD HW 2023 4 M5 ADS2.0 2023 9 ADS2.0 114km 200km 2023 ADAS 2025 251 2023 1800 2025 2400 16 22 HW3 HW4 23 1 2 2021 25%AK2 7 15 20 24(837092)+V2X/(832491)AGV 17 3 AI MR(832491)(832149)(831526)(430139)(873693)(839493)832876 3.1 1 2 25/18 26 2018-2022 3 3.8 CAGR 7%2020 2021 ADAS 2022 3.8 9%0.53 11%27 2018-2022 28 2018-2022 iFinD iFinD 1 2018-2022 57%68%70%90%2022 2 2019 2019-2022-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0123452018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-200%0%200%400%600%800%0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.72018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 19 29 2018-2022 30 2018-2022 iFinD iFinD 3.2+IC+IC IC 1 BMS ADAS OBS LED 5G 2 5G R16 5G 5G to B IC 31 NB-IoT 5G LoRa WIFI IC ST CY-010000200003000040000500002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20 NearLink Wi-Fi SLE&BLE SLE&Wi-Fi 6 32 2021 NB-IoT CAT.1 5G 2022-SMT 2,050 PCS 33 21 2018-2022 11.9 25.8 2023Q3 13%2023Q3 101%1 IC 2 5G CAT.1 34 2018-2022 35 2018-2022 iFinD iFinD IC IC 2019 7.3 2022 19.8 77%2018-2022 2021 2021 IC 2022 36 37 iFinD iFinD-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0510152025302018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-100%0%100%200%300%0122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy0500001000001500002000002500003000002019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 22 3.3 38 TMOV TDK AEQ200 5G TK-1000 TK1000 T0 DIP SOP SMX/SOT/SOD/SOP-2021 1.4 33%2014 1%2022 14%18%1 2022 2 2023 0.8 12%0.13 4%23 39 2018-2022 40 2018-2022 iFinD iFinD 2023 2375 30%2019-2022 28%2021 12%2022 543 5%2023 12 000 3000 2000 41 2018-2023Q3 42 2022H1 iFinD UL TDK 2020 2020 8.7 13.8-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.00.40.81.21.62018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.000.050.100.150.200.252018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 96.6%3.1%0.3%24 43 2020 3.4 ODM OBM IoT 1 2 Foryou Digital Thirdwave Bluebird 44 22.0%6.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%40.0%TDK AVX 25 2021 4.4 yoy+39%2882 yoy+1%2022 4.2 yoy-5%2453 yoy-15%2022 3563 2019-2022 14.5%2022 10 1.2 7000 45 2018-2022 46 2018-2022 iFinD iFinD 47 2019-2022H1-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0123452019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002019 2020 2021 2022 yoy59%48%46%50%32%40%41%39%9%11%14%11%0501001502002503003504004502019 2020 2021 2022H1 IoT 26 1 IDC 2018 2019 2022 2994 5.2%2 IoT 5G IoT GSMA 2019 IoT 120 IoT 30%2025 IoT 246 CAGR 13%48 2018-2022 49 2019-2025 IDC ODM OBM LincPlus ODM ODM+OBM 50 2019-2022H1 51 2022H1-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy12024601002003002019 2025EIoT 87%77%78%87%5%11%9%2%9%12%14%11%01002003004005002019 2020 2021 2022H1ODM OBM 36%64%27 52 2021 Foryou Digital Co.,Ltd 7541 30%Thirdwave Corporation 6095 24%Bluebird Inc 1954 8%In-Tech Electronics Ltd.1113 4%Socisl Mobile Telecommunications 955 4%3.5 CPU MCU CIS MEMS FPGA 7nm-28nm 1 53 28 2020-2021 31%48%2022 3%2023Q3 13%2020 2021 49%61%2022 0.7 22%2023Q3 0.6 54 2018-2022 55 2018-2022 iFinD iFinD 2018-2023Q3 50%53%1 2021 2 2020 59%2019 56 2019-2023H1 57/iFinD-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01232018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.00.20.40.60.81.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%20%40%60%80%01002003004005002019 2020 2021 29 3.6 1 Noergren N.V.2 58 2022 41%Research Nester 2022 69 2033 160 Thermo Fisher Scientific()17%Market Data Forecast 2022 85 36%2022 721 Evaluate Med Tech 3%CT 2022 CT 155 18%Wind 2022 292 G.W.Lisk Co.Inc.40 150 30 59 2023 1.5 12%2019-2022 CAGR 17%2023 0.2 13%2019-2022 CAGR 7%2021 60 2019-2022 61 2019-2022 iFinD iFinD 2020-2022 2019 828 2022 1681 2023 924 17%9%0%10%20%30%40%50%0.00.51.01.52.02.52019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.100.150.200.250.302019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 31 62 2018-2023Q3 63 2018-2023H1 iFinD iFinD Carestream Ahwit US LLC RECARO 64 2022 65 CT 1 2018-2026 CAGR 8%2026 112 2 2023 90 2023-2028 6%27%28%29%30%31%32%33%34%35%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 0%2%4%6%8%10%04008001,2001,6002,0002019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 28%19%22%21%3%7%CTX XR MRI US MI 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0501001502002019 2020 2021 2022 2023ECT 32 3.7 CPU GPU IT 66 CPU PaaS SaaS CPU GPU 1 2 3 4 HPC 5 HPC AI GPU 1 2 CAE Paramon Paratune ParaCloud-HPC China PAC“+HPC”“+HPC”33 67 34,114.77 34,114.77 25,204.22 25,204.22 SaaS 2,107.02 2,107.02 61426.01 61426.01 2018-2022 0.9 3.1 CAGR 37%2023Q3 3.3 2022 71%1 2 3 68 2018-2022 69 2018-2022 iFinD iFinD 1 2019-2022 53%85%AI 2 2019-2022 2022 28%5.8 0%20%40%60%80%100%012342018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-200%-160%-120%-80%-40%0%40%-1.4-1.2-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.202018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 34 70 2019-2022 71 2019-2022 iFinD iFinD 050001000015000200002500030000350002019 2020 2021 2022-20%0%20%40%60%80%2019 2020 2021 2022 35 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer