20240125_华创证券_光通信产业系列新技术巡礼：深度拆解Google OCS及其产业链演进的投资机遇_36页.pdf

2009 1210 2024 01 25 Google OCS Google AI AI Google AI Gemini AI Google TPU/TPU Google AI TPU Google AI Google Google Cloud AI Google AI OCS TPU Google OCS TPUv4 Infiniband OCS OCS 5%3%OCS Google Jupiter TPU AI Google OCS MEMS Google OCS 1 MEMS OCS OCS MEMS MEMS silex 2 OCS+CWDM4/8 Bidi OSFP 3 4 EML DSP 5 Rack AI AI Google OCS 1 2 AI 3 OCS AI Google OCS 0 1 AI S0360523080007%()126 0.02()36,584.08 4.56()11,530.53 1.86%1M 6M 12M-6.3%-17.3%3.8%-3.2%-1.9%26.5%2024-01-10 20231211-20231217 AI 2023-12-17 2024+2023-12-14-23%-2%19%40%23/01 23/04 23/06 23/08 23/11 24/012023-01-302024-01-23 300 2009 1210 Google OCS 0 1 Google AI AI TPU AI OCS Jupiter TPUv4 OCS OCS OCS AI Google OCS 0 1 300308 300394 688195/600498 2.5G 10G 25G 50G 100G CW YWCXvMnQpMoPpRnOtOtMnM6M9RbRtRmMnPnRfQpPoPjMsQsM8OrRyRMYrQnNNZmMxP 2009 1210 3 Google AI AI.6 Google Gemini.6 1 AI First.6 2 AI TPU Google AI.8 Google Cloud AI.11 OCS TPU.14 OCS 1 Jupiter.14 OCS 2 TPUv4.17 Google OCS.20 MEMS OCS.20 OCS.22.24.26.28 AI.29 1.29 2 AI.30 3 OCS.31.33.33 2009 1210 4 1 2017 Google AI.6 2 Gemini Ultra GPT-4.7 3 Gemini.7 4 SGE AI.8 5 Google Engine GPU.8 6 TPUv4.8 7 CPU GPU TPU.9 8 TPU.9 9 TPU.10 10 Google TPU.11 11 Google.11 12 Google.12 13 Google Cloud.12 14.13 15 Google.14 16 Google Jupiter.15 17 CLOS OCS.16 18 OCS WDM Jupiter.16 19 TPUv4 Tray.17 20 TPUv4 Rack 16 TPUv4 Tray.17 21 8 8 Rack TPUv4.18 22 cube rack 64 TPU.19 23 cube OCS 3D Torus.19 24 64 TPUv4 rack 48 OCS 6144.19 25 OCS.20 26 MEMS.21 27 OCS.21 28 MEMS.22 29 2012-2021 MEMS.22 30 WDM.22 31 CWDM4 CWDM8.22 32 Top10.23 33 800G/1.6T.23 2009 1210 5 34.25 35.25 36.26 37 OCS.27 38 Credo 800G PAM4 DSP.27 39 TPUv4 4 OSFP.28 40 TPUv4.28 41 TPUv4 A100 MLPerf.29 42 TPUv4 A100 MLPerf.29 43 Omdia 2023Q3 A100 H100 500K.30 44 Google Video Poet.30 45.31 46.32 47 Dragonfly OCS.32 2009 1210 6 Google AI AI Google Gemini 1 AI First Google AI 2017 Google Mobile First AI First Google NLP Transformer Self-Attention 2018 Google BERT 2022 Google PaLM 2023 Google PaLM2 Gemini 1 2017 Google AI AI OpenAI Google AI Gemini Google AI 2023 12 6 Google Gemini Google Gemini Transformer decoder 32K contex LLM 32 Gemini Ultra 30 Gemini Ultra MMLU()90.0%GPT-4 Google Gemini Chrome Duet AI 2009 1210 7 2 Gemini Ultra GPT-4 3 Gemini Google Gemini Team,Google Gemini:A Family of Highly Capable Multimodal Models Google Google Google AI SGE Search Generative Experience AI Google Google Cloud IaaS PaaS SaaS AI Compute Engine Google Cloud GPU Google GPU A3 Nvdia H100 GPU TPU/2009 1210 8 4 SGE AI 5 Google Engine GPU blog.google 2 AI TPU Google AI TPU Google Google 15 TPU 2016 HBM TPU Pod TPU TensorCore TensorCore(MXU)(VPU)(VMEM)MXU 128 128 16K 6 TPUv4 Google A Machine Learning Supercomputer With An Optically Reconfigurable Interconnect and Embeddings Support TPU AI TPU 2009 1210 9 CPU GPU TPU TPU Y=WX+b W/X/TPU TPU TPU AI 7 CPU GPU TPU 8 TPU EITC Norman P.Jouppi,Cliff Young,Nishant Patil,et al.In-Datacenter Performance Analysis of a Tensor Processing Unit TPUv5p 2016 Google TPUv1 AlphaGo Google TPU 2017 TPUv2 TPUv1 TPUv2 TPUv3 TPUv2 MXU HBM 2021 TPUv4 OCS 2023 Google TPUv5e TPUv5p TPU v5e 2009 1210 10 AI TPUv4 2 2.5 TPUv5p Google AI LLM TPUv4 2.8 TPUv5e 50%9 TPU TPUv1 TPUv2 TPUv3 TPUv4 TPUv5e TPUv5p 2016 2017 2018 2020 2023 2023 28 nm 16 nm 16 nm 7 nm HBM GB N/A 16 32 32 16 95 HBM GB/s 34 600 900 1200 820 2765 Bf16 TFLOPs N/A 46 123 275 197 459 Int8 TOPs 92 N/A N/A N/A 393 918 ICI Gb/s N/A 1984 2624 2400 1600 4800 Pod N/A 256 1024 4096 256 8960 IT Norman P.Jouppi,Doe Hyun Yoon,et al.Ten Lessons From ThreeGenerations Shaped Google s TPUv4i TPU Google TPU Google 90%TPU Norman P.Jouppi TPU v4:An Optically Reconfigurable Supercomputer for Machine Learning with Hardware Support for Embeddings Google TPUv4 8 Google Cloud Gemini TPUv4 TPUv5e 5400 PaLM TPUv4 pods 2009 1210 11 10 Google TPU Norman P.Jouppi,George Kurian,et al.TPU v4:An Optically Reconfigurable Supercomputer for Machine Learning with Hardware Support for Embeddings Google Cloud AI AI Google Google 2022 2828+9.8%2019-2022 CAGR 20.4%2023Q1-3 2211+6.9%2022Q4 AI 1 AI 2 AI 3 11 Google Google-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01002003004005006007008009002019Q1 2019Q3 2020Q1 2020Q3 2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3营业收入（亿美元）营业总收入同比（右轴）毛利率（右轴）净利率（右轴）2009 1210 12 Google Cloud You Tube 2022/2023Q1-3 9.3%/10.8%+1.8/1.6pcts IR 1000 60%Google Cloud AI Vertex AI Duet GCP Workspace 12 Google 13 Google Cloud Google Google Google AI 2022 Google Meta+3%/28%/5%/13%/67%Google Google AI 2022/2023Q1-3 Google 315/212+27.8%/-11.1%Q3 80.6/+10.7%/+16.9%Q3 AI IR 2023Q4 2024 Google AI 2025 Google AI 1000 5%5%6%6%7%8%7%7%7%7%8%7%9%9%10%10%11%11%11%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019Q1 2019Q4 2020Q3 2021Q2 2022Q1 2022Q4 2023Q3Google 广告业务 Google 云业务 Google 其他业务 其他业务0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01020304050607080902019Q1 2019Q4 2020Q3 2021Q2 2022Q1 2022Q4 2023Q3Google 云业务 Google 云业务收 入同比（右轴）2009 1210 13 14-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0501001502002503003504004502019Q1 2019Q3 2020Q1 2020Q3 2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3META 苹果 亚 马逊微软 谷歌 YoY-谷歌（右轴）YoY-微软（右轴）YoY-亚马 逊（右 轴）YoY-苹果（右轴）2009 1210 14 OCS TPU OCS OCS Optical circuit switches Google OCS Google TPUv4 Infiniband OCS OCS 5%3%OCS Google Jupiter TPU AI OCS 1 Jupiter Jupiter Google Google 4 512 ToR ToR 40 512 40 2 2005 Google Firehose Jupiter 15 Google ToR Spine Four-Post CRs 2004 vendor 48x1G-10G 1G 2T Firehose 1.0 2005 8x10G 4x10G(ToR)2x10G 24x1G 2x32x10G()32x10G()10G 1G 10T Firehose 1.1 2006 8x10G 4x10G 48x1G 64x10G()32x10G()10G 1G 10T Watchtower 2008 16x10G 4x10G 48x1G 4x128x10G()128x10G()10G nx1G 82T Saturn 2009 24x10G 24x10G 4x288x10G()288x10G()10G nx10G 207T Jupiter 2012 16x40G 16x40G 8x128x40G()128x40G()10/40G nx10G/nx40G 1.3P Arjun Singh,Joon Ong,Amit Agarwal,et al.Jupiter Rising:A Decade of Clos Topologies and Centralized Control in Google s Datacenter Network Jupiter 3 2015 Jupiter Rising:A Decade of Clos Topologies and Centralized Control in Google s Datacenter Network Jupiter CLOS ToR Spine Aggregation 16x40G 64x10G 4 Centauri Spine 6 Centauri 4 Centauri 32x40G 2 Centauri 4 Centauri 2009 1210 15 Spine Aggregation 128x40G Aggregation 8 Middle 4 Centauri Spine 64x40G ToR 256x10G ToR Centauri 4 48x10G 8x2x10G 8 Jupiter 1.3 Pbps 3 40Gbps 16 Google Jupiter Arjun Singh,Joon Ong,Amit Agarwal,et al.Jupiter Rising:A Decade of Clos Topologies and Centralized Control in Google s Datacenter Network Jupiter OCS Jupiter Google OCS Optical Circuit Switches Spine CLOS Aggregation OCS WDM Tx/RX Jupiter Jupiter 6 Pbps 5 41%30%2009 1210 16 17 CLOS OCS CLOS OCS Spine Aggregation OCS Spine OCS Mems Aggregation OCS Ryohei Urata,Hong Liu,Kevin Yasumura,et al.Mission Apollo:Landing Optical Circuit Switching at Datacenter Scale 18 OCS WDM Jupiter Leon Poutievski,Omid Mashayekhi,Joon Ong,et al.Jupiter Evolving:Transforming Google s DatacenterNetwork via Optical Circuit Switches andSoftware-Defined Networking 2009 1210 17 OCS 2 TPUv4 Google TPUv4 TPUv4 2020 Google 4096 TPUv4 256 TiB HBM 1 ExaFLOP OCS Jupiter Google TPU v4 Google Cloud TPUv4 TPU TPUv4 Package 1 ASIC+4 HBM TPUv4 Tray 4 TPUv4 TPUv4 6 TPUv4 mesh 3D Torus 4 PCIE 16 ICI Inter-Core Interconnect OSFP TPUv4 1 PCIE 3x16 4 400G OSFP TPUv4 Rack 16 TPUv4 Tray 64 TPUv4 4 4 4 Cube TPUv4 Tray 4 4 4 3D mesh Rack OCS Rack OCS TPUv4 Supercomputer Pod 64 TPUv4 Rack 64 64=4096 TPUv4 Rack OCS 19 TPUv4 Tray 20 TPUv4 Rack 16 TPUv4 Tray Norman P.Jouppi,George Kurian,Sheng Li,et al.TPU v4:An Optically Reconfigurable Supercomputer for Machine Learning with Hardware Support for Embeddings Google A Machine Learning Supercomputer With An Optically Reconfigurable Interconnect and Embeddings Support 2009 1210 18 21 8 8 Rack TPUv4 Google A Machine Learning Supercomputer With An Optically Reconfigurable Interconnect and Embeddings Support TPU 1.5 Rack 4 4 4 Cube 64 TPUv4 3D mesh 6 16 OCS 16 OCS OCS 3D Torus TPU v4 5%TPUv4 TPU 4096 OCS XYZ 16 48 cube 6 16=96 64 cube 64 96=6144 1 Cube/6144 TPU 1.5 Rack Rack 16 TPUv4 80 64 Cube 64 80=5120 2009 1210 19 22 cube rack 64 TPU 23 cube OCS 3D Torus Norman P.Jouppi,George Kurian,Sheng Li,et al.TPU v4:An Optically Reconfigurable Supercomputer for Machine Learning with Hardware Support for Embeddings Norman P.Jouppi,George Kurian,Sheng Li,et al.TPU v4:An Optically Reconfigurable Supercomputer for Machine Learning with Hardware Support for Embeddings 24 64 TPUv4 rack 48 OCS 6144 Google A Machine Learning Supercomputer With An Optically Reconfigurable Interconnect and Embeddings Support 2009 1210 20 Google OCS MEMS OCS OCS MEMS Google MEMS OCS OCS 1 2 850nm 3 850nm 2 MEMS 2 850nm MEMS 2 2 136 3 2 MEMS MEMS 25 OCS Google A Machine Learning Supercomputer With An Optically Reconfigurable Interconnect and Embeddings Support MEMS OCS MEMS MEMS 176 136 X Y MEMS 272 LC/APC 12 CPU 136 136 OCS Mission Apollo:Landing Optical Circuit Switching at Datacenter Scale OCS 2009 1210 21 26 MEMS 27 OCS Ryohei Urata,Hong Liu,et al.Mission Apollo:Landing Optical Circuit Switching at Datacenter Scale Ryohei Urata,Hong Liu,et al.Mission Apollo:Landing Optical Circuit Switching at Datacenter Scale OCS MEMS Google OCS MEMS Yole MEMS 2022 2 2028 8 CAGR 28%MEMS MEMS MEMS MEMS MEMS 6%7.7 IDM MEMS MEMS Google OCS MEMS silex OCS Optical Circuit Switch MEMS MEMS-OCS 8 MEMS MEMS-OCS 7 2 2009 1210 22 28 MEMS 29 2012-2021 MEMS Yole Yole Development 2022 OCS OCS Google Google Lightwave Fabrics At-Scale Optical Circuit Switching for Datacenter and Machine Learning Systems Google(TIA)(PD)(DSP)ASIC Google OCS TPUv4 Pod+CWDM4/8 Bidi OSFP 2 400G CWDM4 20nm 800G CWDM8 10nm 30 WDM 31 CWDM4 CWDM8 Hong Liu,Ryohei Urata,et al.Lightwave Fabrics At-Scale Optical Circuit Switching for Datacenter and Machine Learning Systems Hong Liu,Ryohei Urata,et al.Lightwave Fabrics At-Scale Optical Circuit Switching for Datacenter and Machine Learning Systems Google OCS 800G 2024-2025 1.6T 800G/1.6T Google 2009 1210 23 OCS 800G 1.6T 800G 32 Top10 LightCounting AI Clusters,Data Centers,Optical Networks 33 800G/1.6T 800G 1.6T 800G 4x100Gx2 8X100G 24Q1 800G OSFP-T-OP8CNT-N00 800Gbps 0-70 16W 2 24 25 1.6T OSFP-XDDR8+1.6Tbps 0-70 32W 2 Finisar 2024 800G 800G DR8 QSFP-DD 800 500 1.6T 800G LPO 2023 OFC 800G LPO 800G OSFP-DD 800G 200G QSFPDD800MSA CMIS5.0 DR4+1xDR4 1xFR4 2xFR2 2023OFC 1.6T 1.6T OSFP-DD 4xFR2 OSFP-DD 4XSN 16X100Gbps 2 1.6T 2x800G,4X400G(cloudlight)800G 2023 10 12 400G 90%800G 800G QSFP-DD DR8 106.25Gb/s(PAM4),500-2009 1210 24 800G 800G OSFP 2xLR4 10 800 2023 OFC 1.6Tdemo 1.6T OSFP-XD DR8+PAM4 212.5 Gb/s EML 800G 800G 800G LPO 2023 10 800G 800G QSFP-DD 2xFR4 EML LC 2 0-70 2023 OFC 200G Lumentum 1.6T 1.6T OSFP-XD 2xDR4 EML 500 0-70 2022Q3 800G 2023 11 400G/800G DSP 24Q1 800G LPO 800G OSFP DR8 SiPh 7 nm DSP TEC,15W 2023 5 800G SIP TFLN 800G 800G QSFP-DD 2DR4 14W 8 PIN 500m 800G 800G FR4 4x200G OSFP 3D PIN/TIA 5nm DSP,2km 2023OFC 1.6T 200G PAM4 EML AAOI 400G+800G 3 2023Q3 800G 24Q2 Q3 800G-Google 1 2 3 2 3 1 PBS P S 2009 1210 25 FR HWP 1 P PBS FR-45 HWP 45 FR P PBS PBS S P P PBS HWP FR 45 S PBS 3 S PBS HWP FR 45 P 3 34 35 Hong Liu,Ryohei Urata,et al.Lightwave Fabrics At-Scale Optical Circuit Switching for Datacenter and Machine Learning Systems Hong Liu,Ryohei Urata,et al.Lightwave Fabrics At-Scale Optical Circuit Switching for Datacenter and Machine Learning Systems Google OCS Oplink II-VI GRANOPT II-VI 90%PBS 2009 1210 26 36 OCS OCS Google(/)(MPI)DML EML IC/Google DSP(CDR)DSP FEC 2009 1210 27 37 OCS Ryohei Urata,Hong Liu,Kevin Yasumura,et al.Mission Apollo:Landing Optical Circuit Switching at Datacenter Scale EML DSP 2021 25G 20%25G 5%800G 100G PAM4 EML Lumemtum II-VI 100G PAM4 EML 100G EML(56GBd EML PAM4)DSP Marvell Inphi PAM4 DSP Broadcom Credo Max Linear PAM4 DSP Credo 2008 3 Dove 800D/800/801/802/850 800G PAM4 DSP 38 Credo 800G PAM4 DSP Credo 2009 1210 28 Rack Rack TPUv4 Rack 4x4x4 TPUv4 4 TPUv4 Rack Rack OCS TPUv4 ICI 2400 Gb/s TPUv4 6 ICI ICI 400Gb/s TPUv5p ICI 4800 Gb/s 3D Torus 6 ICI ICI 800Gb/s TPUv4 Pod 6144 5120 TPUv5p Pod 8960 TPUv4 Pod TPUv5p Pod 800 Gb/s 39 TPUv4 4 OSFP 40 TPUv4 Google A Machine Learning Supercomputer With An Optically Reconfigurable Interconnect and Embeddings Support Google A Machine Learning Supercomputer With An Optically Reconfigurable Interconnect and Embeddings Support 2009 1210 29 AI 1 Google TPUv4 A100 Google TPUv4 BERT A100 1.15 ResNet TPUv4 A100 1.67 A100 TPUv4 1.3-1.9 TPUv4 A100 Google Cloud TPUv4 Pod us-centra2/1/3 3.22 2.03 1.45 Google(VM)GPU A100 80G GPU us-central1 1.57 TPUv4 A100 Google Anthropic Hugging Face AssemblyAI TPU 41 TPUv4 A100 MLPerf 42 TPUv4 A100 MLPerf Norman P.Jouppi,George Kurian,et al.TPU v4:An Optically Reconfigurable Supercomputer for Machine Learning with Hardware Support for Embeddings Norman P.Jouppi,George Kurian,et al.TPU v4:An Optically Reconfigurable Supercomputer for Machine Learning with Hardware Support for Embeddings AI Nvidia GPU HBM CoWos H100 AI GPU GPU Utils H100 2024 H100 3.5 90%Google TPU Google AI AI Amazon Trainium Inferentia Athena META MTIA 2009 1210 30 43 Omdia 2023Q3 A100 H100 500K Omdia Research 2 AI AI Google AI Capex 24 AI Gemini GPT-5 Video Poet Pika AI Google AI AI 44 Google Video Poet Dan Kondratyuk,Lijun Yu,Xiuye Gu,et al.VideoPoet:A Large Language Model for Zero-Shot Video Generation 2009 1210 31 Google OCS OCS Google 45 3 OCS CLOS CLOS Fat-tree Spine-Leaf Fabric AI AI DGX AI InfiniBand GPU NVLink Fat-tree Fat-tree Torus Dragonfly Google TPUv4 3D-Torus 2009 1210 32 46 OCS Google TPUv4 OCS Nvidia Bill Dally Hoti 2023 Dragonfly OCS OCS OCS OCS OCS 47 Dragonfly OCS Sharada Yeluri GPU Fabrics for GenAI Workloads SDNLAB 2009 1210 33 AI Google OCS 0 1 300308 300394 688195/600498 2.5G 10G 25G 50G 100G CW AI 2009 1210 34&6 2023 2009 1210 35 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 36 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522