20240125_国盛证券_轻工制造行业跨境电商专题：平台红利乘风而起_33页.pdf

|2024 01 25 Emarketer 2014-2021 1.16 5.08 14-21 CAGR 23.5%2023-2027 15.6%20.6%1.72 22-27 CAGR 10.6%Emarketer 2017-2022 2.2 6.6 CAGR 25.1%2025 10.4 23-25 CAGR 16.4%Temu Shein TikTok Temu Shein TikTok shop GMV Temu+TikTok&/&/&ASP+&+S0680523040001 1 2024-01-22 2 2024-01-14 3 2023Q4 2024-01-02 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 603661.SH 2.54 3.16 3.89 4.65 19.65 15.79 12.83 10.73 301376.SZ-0.69 0.99 1.23 1.49 40.97 25.78 20.74 17.13 603600.SH 1.01 0.86 1.08 1.37 12.41 14.57 11.60 9.15 603313.SH-0.09 0.44 0.76 1.04 124.38 24.58 14.32 10.47 300729.SZ-0.91 1.91 1.43 1.66 17.68 10.88 14.51 12.55 Wind 2023-2025 Wind 2024 1 24-32%-16%0%16%2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 300 2024 01 25 P.2 1.5 1.1.5 1.1.1.5 1.1.2.6 1.2.8 1.2.1.9 1.2.2.10 1.2.3.11 1.3.12 1.3.1.14 1.4.14 1.4.1 B2B vs B2C B2B B2C&.14 1.4.2.15 1.4.3.15 1.4.4 FBA/.17 1.5 Temu TikTok Shein.19 1.5.1+.19 1.5.2 Temu Shein TikTok.21 1.5.3 Temu.23 1.5.4 TikTok shop.24 1.6&.27 1.6.1/+/.27 1.6.2.28 2.30 2.1.31 2.1.1.31 2.1.2.31.32 1&.5 2&.5 3.6 4&.6 5.7 6.7 7&%.8 8.8 9 2023.8 10 20 2022E%.9 11 2023%.9 12%.9 13 2022&.10 XVFUuNsPpMoPsMmPqNpQpO6M8QbRmOqQnPqMiNpPrQfQpNqOaQmMxOMYoPnNxNqMpQ 2024 01 25 P.3 14%.10 15 2021 GDP%.10 16 2023 8.11 17.11 18 GMV.11 19 2021%.11 20%.12 21.12 22.13 23 2022.13 24 2023.13 25 2022.14 26 2022.14 27 2022 B2C.14 28 B2C GMV.14 29.15 30.15 31 vs.16 32.16 33 B2B.16 34&.17 35.17 36.17 37 2024.18 38 2024.18 39 FBA 2024&.18 40 2020.19 41 2023.19 42.20 43 2023.20 44 A9.20 45.21 46%.21 47%.21 48 22 12 23 2.21 49 2018-2023.21 50 Temu.22 51 2019-2024E GMV.22 52 CPI.22 53 2023.22 54 2021 Amazon.23 55 2021/.23 56 TEMU GMV.23 57 Temu.23 58 Temu.24 59 TikTok shop.24 2024 01 25 P.4 60 vs.25 61 TikTok.25 62 TikTok/.25 63 TikTok shop.25 64 TikTok shop.26 65 SPU.26 66.27 67/2023.28 68.29 69 1P.29 70 3P.29 71.30 72.31 73 2017-2023.31 74 2017-2023 GMV.31 2024 01 25 P.5 1.1.1 9-1.19pct/1 2023 11/13.2%/19.6%21 3 1&Wind 1.1.1 2023Q3 Q4 2023 10 42.9%61.5%2024 2&Wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%2001-012002-012003-012004-012005-012006-012007-012008-012009-012010-012011-012012-012013-012014-012015-012016-012017-012018-012019-012020-012021-012022-012023-01:30:37.74%40.52%42.86%66.67%31.58%59.18%24.42%2020 1.44 1.99 1.68 1.80 0.79 2.44 1.522023-10 1.30 1.79 1.56 1.89 0.78 2.39 1.36 77.78%51.82%61.54%89.55%75.00%46.15%60.58%41.67%74.03%86.81%54.21%2020 1.59 1.56 1.63 1.40 1.09 0.79 1.97 1.19 2.02 2.53 1.462023-10 1.83 1.85 1.73 1.63 1.22 0.78 2.32 1.29 2.30 2.92 1.66 43.75%50.00%0.00%71.35%72.73%32.14%47.50%16.67%83.33%87.64%2020 0.93 1.03 1.14 1.95 0.66 1.22 1.13 0.37 1.26 1.382023-10 0.93 1.02 0.96 2.77 0.73 1.14 1.14 0.30 1.60 1.78 2024 01 25 P.6 3 Wind 1-2 2022Q4-2023Q3 23 8 2023Q4 3-5 2020H2 2024 4&1.1.2&2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3-3.12%-0.34%2.45%5.18%-5.55%-9.17%-12.81%10.10%11.59%18.77%5.27%-3.54%-9.87%-11.54%3.75%6.50%5.57%0.31%-4.24%-2.00%-2.99%31.91%37.97%24.96%12.77%0.29%-10.82%-11.33%2.36%8.37%8.74%7.31%7.58%5.74%5.23%32.01%25.48%12.56%0.12%-7.02%-5.34%-1.17%7.30%7.21%14.70%8.58%9.37%10.85%12.57%46.70%58.19%18.47%5.41%-2.34%-4.10%-3.39%-7.95%-11.02%-0.32%3.13%-3.21%-6.15%-7.50%-6.78%1.15%5.83%-3.61%-8.43%-13.64%-12.13%18.61%17.44%19.55%1.10%3.12%-4.16%0.00%124.57%121.06%65.22%16.48%-15.99%-34.30%-22.32%-24.41%-45.06%-31.95%-27.61%-25.94%-3.26%-1.18%60.06%13.43%-7.78%-22.57%-39.19%-39.22%-37.24%33.03%19.03%12.06%6.51%1.48%-0.93%-5.93%63.16%70.39%32.52%-1.84%-17.47%-31.74%-31.40%4.31%3.21%4.02%4.23%5.42%3.38%-0.46%18.61%15.13%12.27%-3.41%-2.05%-6.64%0.99%41.49%34.42%40.65%43.12%26.75%25.56%32.57%104.55%144.00%120.69%61.11%46.67%6.56%-7.81%STEELCASE PETCO FRESHPET YETI CRICUT 2024 01 25 P.7 5 ODM/OEM 2024 6 OBM&HILAND JOYSTAR STITCH Cycmoto Drbike Lista Office NOUHAUS NOUHAUS Smugdesk2022 42.9%29.94%15.54%Flexispot Flexispot 2022 68.89%MLILY MLILY MLILY2022 36.18%43.63 8.47%47.17%20.24%HAERS SIGG NONOO SANTECO SIGG SANTECO2022 1-3 18.17%21.29%(ODM 14.31%MOTO MOTION MOTO LIVING MOTO SLEEP-Migo-Made4Pets OHANA STORE-2022 1-6 7.68%31.14%21.25%-Sleep Science Blissful Nights ANANDA Sleep Zone LULAABED2022 16.3%37.3%30.0%)SONGMICS VASAGLE FEANDREASONGMICS VASAGLE FEANDREA 2023Q1-Q3 36.9%Logan DRBIKE HILAND JOYSTAR STITCH cycmoto-2022 17.45%21.56%ODM 13.64%2020 29.26%34.62%ODM 37.10%OEM 24.04%2024 01 25 P.8 1.2 2022 5.4 22-26 CAGR 8.8%Emarketer 2014-2021 1.16 5.08 CAGR 23.5%6.4%19.3%2022-2026 5.4 7.6 CAGR 8.8%19.3%23.3%7&%Emarketer 19.65%51.08%B2B&RCEP TikTok 8 9 2023 Emarketer Emarketer 2022 TikTok+3C 2022 20 1875 2022-2026 8.1%/3C 6.5%/5.9%/4.7%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%051015202530352014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy yoy,51.08%,19.65%,3.31%,3.27%,2.49%,20.20%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2024 01 25 P.9 10 20 2022E%2022 TikTok+1.2.1 23 1.14 15.6%Emarketer 2017-2022 0.46 1.04 CAGR 17.8%2023 15.6%/47.0%/30.6%/30.0%Emarketer 2027 20.6%1.72 5 CAGR 10.6%11 2023%12%Emarketer Emarketer B2C top4 2022 10.3%+15.7%&0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%050010001500200025003000350040004500 3C 22E 26E CAGR0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0500100015002000250030003500 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02017 2019 2021 2023E 2025E 2027E yoy 2024 01 25 P.10 13 2022&Emarketer 1.2.2 2021-2026 0.68 1.14 CAGR 10.8%67%2022 68%/2021 2540/1234/1000/821/GDP 10.3%/7.8%/7.1%/6.6%/6.4%/5.4%14%15 2021 GDP%ECDB Statista eBay Wildberries Ozon Zalando Otto Allegro/Vinted/bol/cdiscount/+VAT EPR 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%020406080100120 YOY 66%67%68%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0200400600800100012002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E yoy 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%0501001502002503002021 GDP 2024 01 25 P.11 16 2023 8 17 similarweb 1.2.3 2022 GMV 131 2019-2022 CAGR 45%2022-2025 CAGR 17%/17.2%/9.1%/14.5%/16.0%/13.3%18 GMV 19 2021%DataReportal Statista Shopee 2022 GMV 479 48%Lazada Tokopedia 20%18%CR3 87%02004006008001000120014002023 8 0501001502002502019 2020 2021 2022 2025E GMVCAGR：2019-2022=45%2022-2025=17%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2024 01 25 P.12 20%21 Momentum Works 36kr Momentum Works 1.3 Ebay B2C 2017 2025 10 2017-2022 2.2 6.6 CAGR 25.1%2022 2025 10.4 3 CAGR 16.4%Shopee,48%Lazada,20%Tokopedia,18%Bukalapak,5%TikTok,4%Blibli,2%,1%2024 01 25 P.13 22 2022/34.3%/6.5%/4.6%/3.9%/2.9%1/3 30%/23%/14%2022/24%/24%+56%23 2022 24 2023,34.30%,6.50%,4.60%,3.90%,2.90%,47.80%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2024 01 25 P.14 25 2022 26 2022 Sensor tower Sensor tower 1.3.1 B2C 2022 B2C/3C/23.3%/21.8%/17.4%/11.4%/6.5%CR5 80%B2C&27 2022 B2C 28 B2C GMV 1.4 1.4.1 B2B vs B2C B2B B2C&B2B&B2C B2B/B2C B2C 2013-2022 B2B/B2C 94.8%/5.2%75.6%/24.4%B2C,24%,24%,19%,14%,10%,5%,4%,1%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%,23.3%3C,21.8%,17.4%,11.4%,6.5%,19.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2019 2021 2023E 2025E 2024 01 25 P.15 29 1.4.2 C TikTok shop 8-15%Shopify&30 HiShop 1.4.3&Temu TikTok C&/KOL/&+/8-15%/&/&1 2shopify C/2024 01 25 P.16 31 vs&1P&3P C&2020-2022 B2C 53%-60%B2B 26%-32%B2C 3P B2B 1P VC B2C B2B&32 33 B2B 3P 1P 2018-2022 36.5%&10.3%18.3%14.1%2.5%2.6%2018-2022&2021 2022 2021 2020B2C 53.5%54.8%59.6%B2B 26.9%28.0%31.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021 2022 B2B B2B Wayfair Vendor 2024 01 25 P.17 34&1.4.4 FBA/FBA FBA FBA listing 5 1 FBA FBA 35 36 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%&FBA&+/+Listing/+/+FBA FBA-+2024 01 25 P.18 37 2024 38 2024 2024 FBA 2024 FBA/39 FBA 2024&+16 15 12 0.75 20 18 14 8 5 0 磅 59 33 33 1300-50 50 50-70 50-70 5070-150 70-150 70150+150+59 33 33+130 50 2024.2.5-4.14 2024.4.15 0-50$9.73+$0.42$9.61+$0.38 0-50 0-50$26.33+$0.38$26.33+$0.38 50-70 50-70 50$40.12+51$0.75$40.12+51$0.75 70-150 70-15070$54.81+71$0.75$54.81+71$0.75 150+150+150$194.95+151$0.19$194.95+151$0.19-2024 01 25 P.19 1.5 Temu TikTok Shein Amazon Amazon&2020 33%/eBay/Wish/Lazadade 26%/19%/11%/9%Amazon 2023 37.6%/eBay/Target/Costco/Best Buy 6.4%/3.6%/3.0%/1.9%/1.9%/1.5%/1.4%40 2020 41 2023 Statista 1.5.1+-2023 1-5&A9&A9 3 A9 listing Amazon,33.00%AliExpress,26.00%eBay,19.00%Wish,11.00%Lazada,9.00%,2.00%Amazon,37.60%Walmart,6.40%Apple,3.60%eBay,3%Target,1.90%The Home Depot,1.90%Costco,1.50%Best Buy,1.40%Carvana,1.40%Kroger,1.30%2024 01 25 P.20 42 43 2023 44 A9 JCtrans MoonSees 2022 2022 1 2+3 0200400600800100012001400 2024 01 25 P.21 45 1.5.2 Temu Shein TikTok 2022 2022 12 2023 2 2022 12 Prime 2023 3 1.67 Prime-300 46%47%Wind Wind 48 22 12 23 2 49 2018-2023 Statista CIRP 0510152025303540450100020003000400050006000%-400-20002004006008001,000-50050100150200250300350400%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%050010001500200025003000 2023 2 2022 12 22 12 54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.82018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 01 25 P.22 Temu Shein TikTok GMV Temu 2022 9 2023 9 MAU 6100 8%2023/Shein/Temu/TikTok shop GMV 8390/410-420/180/200 9%/41%-45%/5900%/355%2024 Temu/TikTok shop GMV 300/500 67%/150%2023 28%/28%/10%/TikTok shop/Temu 50 Temu 51 2019-2024E GMV EqualOcean Frost&Sullivan HKExnews ECDB 36kr Statista BusinessofApps YipitData 52 CPI 53 2023 Wind TikTok 2021 90%7%1 14%0.5-1 53%0.1-0.5 2021 0.32/TikTok 0.15/TikTok 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%0102030405060702022/09 2022/11 2023/01 2023/03 2023/05 2023/07 2023/09Temu MAU 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024EAmazon 3820 5600 6840 7670 8390-yoy-47%22%12%9%-Shein 45 100 200 290 410-420-yoy-122%100%45%41%-45%-Temu-3 180 300yoy-5900%67%TikTokshop-44 200 500yoy-355%150%9596979899100101102240250260270280290300310320:CPIOECD:0%5%10%15%20%25%30%TikTokshopTemu 2024 01 25 P.23 54 2021 Amazon 55 2021/1.5.3 Temu Temu+Temu GMV 2023 6 GMV 10&Temu Temu Temu+SKU+56 TEMU GMV 57 Temu Business of Apps 1,7%0.5-1,14%0.1-0.5,53%0.1,16%,7%,3%012345602004006008001000120022-0922-1022-1122-1223-0123-0223-0323-0423-0523-06TEMU GMV 2024 01 25 P.24 58 Temu 1.5.4 TikTok shop TikTok TikTok shop 2023 9 TikTok shop 2021 2 2022 4/6 2022 11 2023 9 59 TikTok shop FastData TikTok Temu/TikTok 2024 01 25 P.25 60 vs TikTok TikTok 36.6 39.9 TikTok 61 TikTok 62 TikTok/TikTok&2022 TikTok&2022 TikTok shop 1 KOL 2&/63 TikTok shop EchoTik 20%16%32%25%25%24%23%35%TikTok 18-25 26-35 36-45 46+25%29%28%28%24%22%23%21%TikTok TikTok TikTok 1 16 TikTokKOL-TikTok/-KOL+2024 01 25 P.26 64 TikTok shop SPU 24-209%SPU Temu/Shein Temu/Shein Temu Shein Temu 65 SPU Temu Shein Temu TikTok Temu Shein 22.48 42.97 29.7 5.97 19.99 27.99 19.48 34.95 22.99 37.99 99.99/2024 01 25 P.27 66 36 ESG CBNData 1.6&1.6.1/+/+&+&SKU&Temu 25 2022&11 Temu&USPS&UPS&1/&ASPTikTok shop20231&2&+1+2Shein 5-252017&9-144-6 quickship+&1994&FBA 5/FBM/&+PrimeeBayC2C+1995+3.5-12%7-14+-IT-Wish 2010=+*15%5-2024 01 25 P.28 67/2023 Wind 77 1+2 Newegg-30 3 TikTok TikTok Shop Partner&MCN/1.6.2 3P+&ROI&ASP+/B2B+B2C 41%FBA 36.9%6.9%3.7 3.7%B2C 51%FBA 43.3%10.6%0.8 2.9%B2C 60%36.5%2.2%7.2 2.2%CostcoB2C 82%-35.1%7.8%0.7 2.0%TikTokB2B+B2C FBA 24.1%6.5%1.0 2.6%B2C 30%36.5%19.3%1.0 3.5%B2C 80%FBA69.7%5.1%1.5 1.8%B2C 25-30%FBA 37.8%6.7%1.2 3.7%eBay Shopee B2C 25%32.4%8.3%1.5 13.1%2024 01 25 P.29 68 1P 3P 1P&ASP 3P+&69 1P 70 3P 2024 01 25 P.30 2.+71 Temu Shein TikTok shop GMV+&+EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 603661.SH 2.54 3.16 3.89 4.65 19.65 15.79 12.83 10.73 301376.SZ-0.69 0.99 1.23 1.49 40.97 25.78 20.74 17.13 603600.SH 1.01 0.86 1.08 1.37 12.41 14.57 11.60 9.15 603313.SH-0.09 0.44 0.76 1.04 124.38 24.58 14.32 10.47 300729.SZ-0.91 1.91 1.43 1.66 17.68 10.88 14.51 12.55 Wind 2023-2025 Wind 2024 1 24 22 22 Lista OfficeL0NOUHAUSNOUHAUS Smugdesk TikTok 9.8 15%Flexispot Flexispot 15.77 49%MLILY MLILY MLILY 4.47 6%HAERS SIGG NONOO SANTECOSIGG SANTECO MOTO MOTION MOTO LIVING MOTO SLEEP-Costco3000 23H1 14%23H1 SONGMICS VASAGLE FEANDREASONGMICS VASAGLE FEANDREAmanomano Wayfair50.33 94%LoganDRBIKE HILAND JOYSTAR STITCH cycmotoHILAND JOYSTAR STITCH Cycmoto Drbike+2024 01 25 P.31 2.1 2.1.1/TikTok Temu Shein+&800 2022 800&800 72 U.S.Customs and Border Protection 2.1.2 2021 1 2022 TikTok Temu+73 2017-2023 74 2017-2023 GMV marketplace pulse ECDB 10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024 01 25 P.32 2024 01 25 P.33“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033