20240125_国联证券_电力行业2024年度策略报告：电改引领电源侧价值再升级_31页.pdf

1 2024 2023 1.74%2024 1 2 24 21%23 19%24 23+5.96%+29.72%2024 23H1 24H1 50%2023 1-12 441.6 kWh 2022 2023 10 2023 10 22 10 8-10 2.8%/2.3%2023 10 PE 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 1119 147.4 160.3 181.0 9.0 8.3 7.3 742 72.8 87.5 101.3 10.2 8.5 7.3 152 14.4 16.6 19.0 10.6 9.1 8.0 1248 73.5 96.4 113.0 17.0 12.9 11.0 5836 273.9 342.5 361.5 20.9 17.0 16.1 1507 104.3 114.7 126.6 14.5 13.1 11.9 1566 112.4 123.6 132.4 15.3 13.9 13.0 wind 2024 01 24 wind 2024 01 25 S0590521100002 1 20 2024.01.07 2 10 2023.12.06-30%-17%-3%10%2023/1 2023/5 2023/9 2024/1 300 2 1.4 1.1.5 1.2.9 1.3.10 1.4.10 2.12 2.1 2023.12 2.2 2023.13 3.15 3.1.15 3.2.17 4.19 4.1 23H2-24H1.19 4.2.20 5.21 5.1.21 5.2.23 6.25 6.1 2023 10.25 6.2.27 7.29 8.30 1=+.4 2.5 3 2023 2024.5 4 2023 2024.6 5 2023 2024.7 6 2023/2024.7 7 2023/2024.8 8 202301-202401/MWh.9 9 202301-202401/MWh.9 10.9 11.10 12 2022.11 13 2023.11 14/.11 15.12 16%.12 17 2023/2022.12 18 2023.12 19.13 20.13 21%.14 22 2020-23.14 YWDWyRtOoNoPpRmPsPqPnMbR9R8OpNmMtRqMlOrRoPjMpNrP7NoOvMxNnNxOuOoPoN 3 23 2020-23.14 24.15 25 2024-2025.15 26 2026.16 27 20242025/kWh.17 28 20242025/kWh.17 29 2022.18 30.18 31 2022-2023.18 32 5.19 33 5.19 34.20 35 2022-2023.20 36.20 37%.20 38.21 39.21 40.22 41.22 42/kg.22 43 PERC-210/W.22 44/kW.23 45/kW.23 46.23 47 2022-2023 12.24 48 2012/.25 49 2022-2023M11.26 50 2022-2023M10.26 51.26 52.27 53%.28 54%.28 55.28 56.29 4 1.2023 1.74%300 2024 2023 7 11 1=+5 2 1.1 2024 2024+21%2023 12 13 2024 2022 30/3 2023 2024 2024 2023 6 95%5%90%10%+20%20%20%20%20%M=80%M-1+20%M-1 A A 30/2023 11 21 2024 2022 23 4 2023 2024 2024 2023 2024 6000 2023 5500 2023 177 3200 3200 3000 3000+0.453/20%2024 0.463/0.554/0.372/+0 463/0 554/0 372/2024 1 220kV 220kV 2024 7 5 2023 2024 2024 2023()().().1.1)2023 80%2)270#1-2 70 3)4)900 1800 1.1)10 4000 10 2022 1-10 2)180 3)1000 4)900 1800 2.()+,20%;2.20%(0.31280.4692/)20%+2024 21%2024 2024 3606.24 452.94/MWh 15.82%0.022/kWh 474.94/kWh 21.47%0.0083/kWh 6 2023/2024 2023 2024/MWh/MWh)/MWh)466.65 19.35%452.86 15.82%-13.79 465.14 18.96%446.76 14.26%-18.38 468.58 19.84%464.44 18.78%-4.14 466.64 19.35%452.94 15.84%22 466.64 19.35%474.94 21.47%8.3 391 391 8 2024 5.32%12 22 2024 2024 2582.01 465.62/MWh 0.57%0.022/kWh 487.62/MWh 5.32%7 2023/2024 2023 2024/MWh/MWh)/MWh)553.88 19.63%465.64 0.57%-88.24 552.28 19.28%463.3 0.06%-88.98 553.96 19.65%485.64 4.89%529.94 14.46%465.64 0.57%-64.3 465.62 0.57%22 553.86 19.62%487.62 5.32%-66.24 463 463 2023 0.45-0.46/kWh 2024 1 0.44/kWh 0.462/kWh 2024 1 0.485/kWh 0.505/kWh 2024 0.02/kWh 2024+9 8 202301-202401/MWh 9 202301-202401/MWh 1.2 2023 11 12 2023 12 22 10 2023 12 22 2023 2024 6 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 6 410420430440450460470480490500 474.92450460470480490500510520530540550560 487.62 10 1.3 2023 11 10 2023 1501 2024 1 1 11 1.4 6 33 2023 2022 90000 320 11 12 2022 2023 6 27.1 20 2023 278 1.9%1%2015 PJM 2.5%8%3-5%13 2023 14/48.8%278 111 438 1.9%0.76%3%PJM 5%27%2.5%2015 8%2015 3%-5%2023 15%2030 PJM 8.83 2.54 2.46 1.73 9.74 024681012 12 2.2.1 2023 2023 6.7%2023 9.22 6.7%5%/1278/60745/16694/13524 11.5%/6.5%/12.2%/0.9%15 16%Wind Wind ifind 2023 8.9 kWh/6.2/0.81/0.29/1.14/0.43 kWh 69.9%/9.1%/3.3%/12.8%/4.9%17 2023/2022 18 2023 ifind ifind 7.5%3.8%0.5%5.0%6.6%8.5%4.5%3.1%10.3%3.6%6.7%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%500005500060000650007000075000800008500090000950002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000 2023 202269.9%9.1%3.3%12.8%4.9%13 2023 11 283GW/46.6/163.9/41.4/1.2/9.4 GW/13.22/18.87/98.17GW 19 Wind 2023 11 2022/2029/4040/2927/1218/7001 2022 2022 2023 20 Wind 2.2 2023 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002023/02 2023/03 2023/04 2023/05 2023/06 2023/07 2023/08 2023/09 2023/10 2023/11 4,0402,9271,2182,0297,00101,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000 2022/11 2023/11 2022/12 14 wind 2023 11 11.13%14.14%8.83%21%Wind 18%23%2020-2023 5 2.22 2.91 2021-2022 18%23%22 2020-23 23 2020-23 Wind Wind-20-15-10-50510152025 0.005000.0010000.0015000.0020000.0025000.002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2023 2020 2021 20220.005000.0010000.0015000.0020000.0025000.0030000.0035000.0040000.002 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2023 2020 2021 2022 15 3.3.1 2021 20242025 1208 2026 1900 24 Wind 330/kW 20242025 30%100/kW 50%165/kW 25 2024-2025(/(/30%100 50%165 30%100 30%100 30%100 0.77 50%165 1.27 30%100 12.24 50%165 20.20 30%100 48.88 50%165 80.65 30%100 68.84 50%165 113.59 30%100 96.20 50%165 158.73 30%100 35.50 50%165 58.58 30%100 17.06 50%165 28.15 30%100 22.50 50%165 37.13 30%100 15.02 50%165 24.78 30%100 78.81 50%165 130.04 30%100 47.91 50%165 79.05 30%100 52.74 50%165 87.02 30%100 29.36 50%165 48.44 30%100 22.60 50%165 37.29 30%100 106.36 50%165 175.49 50%165 109.33 70%231 153.06 30%100 28.93 50%165 47.73 50%165 36.76 70%231 51.47 30%100 68.25 50%165 112.61 50%165 32.42 70%231 45.39 30%100 3.24 50%165 5.35 50%165 21.93 70%231 30.70 50%165 23.30 70%231 32.62 30%100 34.69 50%165 57.24 50%165 21.42 70%231 29.98 30%100 47.16 50%165 77.81 30%100 22.57 50%165 37.24 50%165 6.19 70%231 8.66 30%100 31.66 50%165 52.24 30%100 65.99 50%165 108.88 1208.62 1931.39 16 30%100 50%165 30%100 50%165 30%100 50%165 30%100 30%100 30%100 30%100 30%100 50%165 30%100 30%100 30%100 30%100 30%100 30%100 30%100 30%100 30%100 50%165 30%100 30%100 30%100 30%100 30%100 50%165 30%100 2026 70%50%26 2026(/(/50%165 70%231 50%165 50%165 50%165 70%231 50%165 70%231 50%165 70%231 50%165 50%165 50%165 50%165 50%165 70%231 50%165 50%165 50%165 50%165 50%165 50%165 50%165 50%165 50%165 70%231 50%165 50%165 50%165 50%165 50%165 70%231 50%165 2021+20242025 0.0141/kWh 17 0.028/0.025/0.025/0.023/0.020/kWh 27 20242025/kWh Wind 2021 2024-2025 0.0284/kWh 0.061/0.051/0.050/0.049/0.044/kWh 28 20242025/kWh Wind 3.2 Wind 2023 12 8 Q5500 Q5500 Q5500 860/1022/1000/28.9%/17.7%/19.8%0.0000.0050.0100.0150.0200.0250.030 0.0000.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.070 18 29 2022 Wind 2023 12 2023 12 8 1614 2022+23.1%Wind 2023 12 12.2+17.1%30 31 2022-2023 Wind Wind 600800100012001400160018002022-01-042022-02-042022-03-042022-04-042022-05-042022-06-042022-07-042022-08-042022-09-042022-10-042022-11-042022-12-042023-01-042023-02-042023-03-042023-04-042023-05-042023-06-042023-07-042023-08-042023-09-042023-10-042023-11-042023-12-04 Q5500/Q5500/Q5500/6008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8001/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/32020 2021 2022 2023020004000600080001000012000140001/13 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/1311/1312/132022 2023 19 4.4.1 23H2-24H1 23H2 24H1 23H1 23H1 2023 5 6 2023 12 24 167.65 9.43 5.96%323 74 29.72%2023H2 2022 23H2 32 5 33 5 Wind Wind 2024 2024 2024 2023 11 2927 22 8/9/10+18.5%/39.2%/21.8%3600 2024H1 2024H1 23H1 24H1 1301351401451501551601651701751802019 2020 20212022 20231301802302803303804302023 2019 20202021 2022 20 34 35 2022-2023 2014 2669 2015 3590 2016 2619 2017 3597 2018 3607 2019 3697 2020 3825 2021 3606 2022 3412 2023 1-11 2927 2023 1-11 Wind 4.2 2018-2022 1.95 2023Q1-Q3 672 381 1.75 50%50%2022 94.3%2021 23.7pct 70%36 37%Wind Wind 2022/3.63%/2.68%/1.97%/2.05%2023 12 26 Wind 2.58%-40-30-20-100102030405002004006008001000120014001600%703 734 768 674 701 672 363 348 398 376 357 381 020040060080010002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 30.0%32.2%40.0%20.9%31.8%37.0%50.8%53.0%57.1%50.8%35.0%35.0%35.4%50.0%50.3%66.2%69.4%60.5%70.6%94.3%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 21 38 Wind 2023 12 26 5.5.1 150GW 165GW 94GW 40GW 275GW 10GW 28 2023 2024 2023 4 2024 1 2 24 14 39 3900 1500 2400 4200 9000 16500 8100 14000 31500 2100 1100 1000 11400 20300 4500 1200 3300 2300 1200 1100 3700 0 3700 0 3700 3500 0 3500 9900 13400 20000 5000 15000 25500 9000 16500 45500 14000 31500 2.89%2.89%2.97%3.46%3.63%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 22 2023 2023M1-M11 2029 21%2023M1-M11 1218 42%2022 2022 30 3%40 41 Wind Wind 78.5%56.7%2023 11 65/kg 78.5%PERC-210 2023 11 0.58/W 56.7%42/kg 43 PERC-210/W Infolink Consulting Infolink Consulting 2023 12 1899/kW-5.3%-15%2023 9 3613/kW+0.17%+0.64%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%05001000150020002500 YOY%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%02004006008001000120014001600 YOY%05010015020025030035000.20.40.60.811.21.41.6 23 44/kW 45/kW 5.2 2021 8 2022 8-46 2023 5 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0003,0003,2003,4003,6003,8004,0004,2004,4004,6004,80021-10 22-02 22-05 22-08 22-12 23-03 23-06 23-10 24-01 24 2023 6 2023 2023 1-12 441.6+,47 2022-2023 12 21.211.914.841.550.739.130.846.8 46.830.844.163.10102030405060701 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 25 6.6.1 2023 10 5 2023 11 5676 119 48 2012/Wind 2023M11 7001 101 2023M1-10M 3587 5.3%0100020003000400050006000 26 49 2022-2023M11 50 2022-2023M10 Wind Wind 2023 10 2022 10 2023 7 1 2 5 6 1 2 6 51 14 17 25 41 97 100 121 148 131 101 0204060801001201401600100020003000400050006000700080002022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-11 h 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%050010001500200025003000350040004500%146 6030 080 0 04 4510 1002468101214162008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20232023.07 1 2 5 6 1 2 6 27 52 6.2 Wind 30%2022/35.63%/44.09%2022 2.8%/2.3%28 53%54%Wind Wind 04 12 06 2 200MW 2012 12 21 12 1 23 12 6 200MW 168 55 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 29 7.2024 2024H1 2023 2023 10 56()PE 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 600027.SH 1119 147.4 160.3 181.0 9 8.28 7.33 600795.SH 742 72.8 87.5 101.3 10.2 8.48 7.32 600023.SH 670 70.6 82.0 89.8 9.5 8.18 7.47 000543.SZ 152 14.4 16.6 19.0 10.58 9.13 8.01 600905.SH 1248 73.5 96.4 113.0 17.03 12.94 11.04 603693.SH 89 5.5 7.5 9.6 16.18 11.9 9.21 600900.SH 5836 273.9 342.5 361.5 20.85 17.04 16.14 601985.SH 1507 104.3 114.7 126.6 14.45 13.14 11.9 003816.SZ 1566 112.4 123.6 132.4 15.33 13.93 13.01 Wind 2024 01 24 Wind 30 8.31 6 12 6 12 A 300 500 20%5%20%-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%/208 A 4 1198 25 8 12 6009 45 0510-85187583